Parameter estimation for a phenomenological model of the cardiac action potential

The action potential (ap) of a cardiac cell is made up of a complex balance of ionic currents which flow across the cell membrane in response to electrical excitation of the cell. Biophysically detailed mathematical models of the ap have grown larger in terms of the variables and parameters required to model new findings in subcellular ionic mechanisms. The fitting of parameters to such models has seen a large degree of parameter and module re-use from earlier models. An alternative method for modelling electrically exciteable cardiac tissue is a phenomenological model, which reconstructs tissue level ap wave behaviour without subcellular details. A new parameter estimation technique to fit the morphology of the ap in a four variable phenomenological model is presented. An approximation of a nonlinear ordinary differential equation model is established that corresponds to the given phenomenological model of the cardiac ap. The parameter estimation problem is converted into a minimisation problem for the unknown parameters. A modified hybrid Nelder–Mead simplex search and particle swarm optimization is then used to solve the minimisation problem for the unknown parameters. The successful fitting of data generated from a well known biophysically detailed model is demonstrated. A successful fit to an experimental ap recording that contains both noise and experimental artefacts is also produced. The parameter estimation method’s ability to fit a complex morphology to a model with substantially more parameters than previously used is established.

Why evolutionary realism underpins evolutionary economic analysis and theory

This paper offers a reply to Jochen Runde's critical appraisal of the ontological framework underpinning Dopfer and Potts's (2008) General Theory of Economic Evolution. We argue that Runde's comprehensive critique contains several of what we perceive to be misunderstandings in relation to the key concepts of ‘generic’ and ‘meso’ that we seek here to unpack and redress.

Intolerance of uncertainty and meta-worry : relative importance in discriminating GAD

This study explored whether intolerance of uncertainty and/or meta-worry discriminate between non-clinical individuals and those diagnosed with generalised anxiety disorder (GAD group). The participants were 107 GAD clients and 91 university students. The students were divided into two groups (high and low GAD symptom groups). A multivariate analysis of covariance (MANCOVA) adjusting for age indicated that intolerance of uncertainty distinguished between the low GAD symptom group and the high GAD symptom group, and between the low GAD symptom group and the GAD group. Meta-worry distinguished all three groups. A discriminant function including intolerance of uncertainty and meta-worry classified 94.4% of the GAD group and 97.9% of the low GAD symptom group. Only 6.8% of the high GAD symptom group was classified correctly, 77.3% of the high GAD symptom group was classified as GAD. Findings indicated that intolerance of uncertainty and meta-worry may assist with the diagnosis and treatment of GAD.

The relationship of meta-worry and intolerance of uncertainty with pathological worry, anxiety, and depression

This study explored how meta-worry and intolerance of uncertainty relate to pathological worry, generalised anxiety, obsessive compulsive disorder, social phobia, and depression. University students (n = 253) completed a questionnaire battery. A series of regression analyses were conducted. The results indicated that meta-worry was associated with GAD, social phobia, obsessive compulsive, and depressive symptoms. Intolerance of uncertainty was related to GAD, social phobia, and obsessive compulsive symptoms, but not depressive symptoms. The importance of meta-worry and intolerance of uncertainty as predictors of pathological worry, GAD, social phobia, obsessive compulsive and depressive symptoms was also examined. Even though both factors significantly predicted the aforementioned symptoms, meta-worry emerged as a stronger predictor of GAD and obsessive compulsive symptoms than did intolerance of uncertainty. Intolerance of uncertainty, compared with meta-worry, appeared as a stronger predictor of social phobia symptoms. Findings emphasise the importance of addressing meta-worry and/or intolerance of uncertainty not only for the assessment and treatment of generalised anxiety disorder (GAD), but also obsessive compulsive disorder, social phobia, and depression.

Planning volunteer responses to low-volume mass gatherings: do event characteristics predict patient workload?

INTRODUCTION: Workforce planning for first aid and medical coverage of mass gatherings is hampered by limited research. In particular, the characteristics and likely presentation patterns of low-volume mass gatherings of between several hundred to several thousand people are poorly described in the existing literature. OBJECTIVES: This study was conducted to: 1. Describe key patient and event characteristics of medical presentations at a series of mass gatherings, including events smaller than those previously described in the literature; 2. Determine whether event type and event size affect the mean number of patients presenting for treatment per event, and specifically, whether the 1:2,000 deployment rule used by St John Ambulance Australia is appropriate; and 3. Identify factors that are predictive of injury at mass gatherings. METHODS: A retrospective, observational, case-series design was used to examine all cases treated by two Divisions of St John Ambulance (Queensland) in the greater metropolitan Brisbane region over a three-year period (01 January 2002-31 December 2004). Data were obtained from routinely collected patient treatment forms completed by St John officers at the time of treatment. Event-related data (e.g., weather, event size) were obtained from event forms designed for this study. Outcome measures include: total and average number of patient presentations for each event; event type; and event size category. Descriptive analyses were conducted using chi-square tests, and mean presentations per event and event type were investigated using Kruskal-Wallis tests. Logistic regression analyses were used to identify variables independently associated with injury presentation (compared with non-injury presentations). RESULTS: Over the three-year study period, St John Ambulance officers treated 705 patients over 156 separate events. The mean number of patients who presented with any medical condition at small events (less than or equal to 2,000 attendees) did not differ significantly from that of large (>2,000 attendees) events (4.44 vs. 4.67, F = 0.72, df = 1, 154, p = 0.79). Logistic regression analyses indicated that presentation with an injury compared with non-injury was independently associated with male gender, winter season, and sporting events, even after adjusting for relevant variables. CONCLUSIONS: In this study of low-volume mass gatherings, a similar number of patients sought medical treatment at small (<2,000 patrons) and large (>2,000 patrons) events. This demonstrates that for low-volume mass gatherings, planning based solely on anticipated event size may be flawed, and could lead to inappropriate levels of first-aid coverage. This study also highlights the importance of considering other factors, such as event type and patient characteristics, when determining appropriate first-aid resourcing for low-volume events. Additionally, identification of factors predictive of injury presentations at mass gatherings has the potential to significantly enhance the ability of event coordinators to plan effective prevention strategies and response capability for these events.

Understanding the coping strategies of international students : a qualitative approach

International students encounter a range of additional challenges as a part of their tertiary study experience. A qualitative approach was used to understand the challenges faced by international students, coping strategies that promoted their personal resilience and advice they have for future international students. Twenty-two international students from an Australian university participated in four focus groups. The challenges identified by students included adjustment, social isolation, English language skills, academic difficulties, unmet expectations, employment, culture shock and psychological distress. Participants shared their own personal experiences and strategies used by them to cope and identified strategies that future students could use prior to leaving their home country and whilst in Australia to improve their adjustment. Uses of international student stories in prevention interventions are discussed.

Intention, foresight and ending life : a response to "The Double Effect effect" by Charles Foster, Jonathan Herring, Karen Melham and Tony Hope, (CQ 20(1))

In this paper I examine the recent arguments by Charles Foster, Jonathan Herring, Karen Melham and Tony Hope against the utility of the doctrine of double effect. One basis on which they reject the utility of the doctrine is their claim that it is notoriously difficult to apply what they identify as its 'core' component, namely, the distinction between intention and foresight. It is this contention that is the primarily focus of my article. I argue against this claim that the intention/foresight distinction remains a fundamental part of the law in those jurisdictions where intention remains an element of the offence of murder and that, accordingly, it is essential ro resolve the putative difficulties of applying the intention/foresight distinction so as to ensure the integrity of the law of murder. I argue that the main reasons advanced for the claim that the intention/foresight distinction is difficult to apply are ultimately unsustainable, and that the distinction is not as difficult to apply as the authors suggest.

The Tension between a constructed self and universal reason in considerations of elective death

Review of Coping with Choices to Die, by C. G. Prado. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2011.

Body composition and appetite : fat-free mass (but not fat mass or BMI) is positively associated with self-determined meal size and daily energy intake in humans

The idea of body weight regulation implies that a biological mechanism exerts control over energy expenditure and food intake. This is a central tenet of energy homeostasis. However, the source and identity of the controlling mechanism have not been identified, although it is often presumed to be some long-acting signal related to body fat, such as leptin. Using a comprehensive experimental platform, we have investigated the relationship between biological and behavioural variables in two separate studies over a 12-week intervention period in obese adults (total n 92). All variables have been measured objectively and with a similar degree of scientific control and precision, including anthropometric factors, body composition, RMR and accumulative energy consumed at individual meals across the whole day. Results showed that meal size and daily energy intake (EI) were significantly correlated with fat-free mass (FFM, P values ,0·02–0·05) but not with fat mass (FM) or BMI (P values 0·11–0·45) (study 1, n 58). In study 2 (n 34), FFM (but not FM or BMI) predicted meal size and daily EI under two distinct dietary conditions (high-fat and low-fat). These data appear to indicate that, under these circumstances, some signal associated with lean mass (but not FM) exerts a determining effect over self-selected food consumption. This signal may be postulated to interact with a separate class of signals generated by FM. This finding may have implications for investigations of the molecular control of food intake and body weight and for the management of obesity.

An experimental study of a reactive plume in grid turbulence

Experimental results for a reactive non-buoyant plume of nitric oxide (NO) in a turbulent grid flow doped with ozone (O3) are presented. The Damkohler number (Nd) for the experiment is of order unity indicating the turbulence and chemistry have similar timescales and both affect the chemical reaction rate. Continuous measurements of two components of velocity using hot-wire anemometry and the two reactants using chemiluminescent analysers have been made. A spatial resolution for the reactants of four Kolmogorov scales has been possible because of the novel design of the experiment. Measurements at this resolution for a reactive plume are not found in the literature. The experiment has been conducted relatively close to the grid in the region where self-similarity of the plume has not yet developed. Statistics of a conserved scalar, deduced from both reactive and non-reactive scalars by conserved scalar theory, are used to establish the mixing field of the plume, which is found to be consistent with theoretical considerations and with those found by other investigators in non-reative flows. Where appropriate the reactive species means and higher moments, probability density functions, joint statistics and spectra are compared with their respective frozen, equilibrium and reaction-dominated limits deduced from conserved scalar theory. The theoretical limits bracket reactive scalar statistics where this should be so according to conserved scalar theory. Both reactants approach their equilibrium limits with greater distance downstream. In the region of measurement, the plume reactant behaves as the reactant not in excess and the ambient reactant behaves as the reactant in excess. The reactant covariance lies outside its frozen and equilibrium limits for this value of Vd. The reaction rate closure of Toor (1969) is compared with the measured reaction rate. The gradient model is used to obtain turbulent diffusivities from turbulent fluxes. Diffusivity of a non-reactive scalar is found to be close to that measured in non-reactive flows by others.

Free surface flow past topography : a beyond-all-orders approach

The problem of steady subcritical free surface flow past a submerged inclined step is considered. The asymptotic limit of small Froude number is treated, with particular emphasis on the effect that changing the angle of the step face has on the surface waves. As demonstrated by Chapman & Vanden-Broeck (2006), the divergence of a power series expansion in powers of the square of the Froude number is caused by singularities in the analytic continuation of the free surface; for an inclined step, these singularities may correspond to either the corners or stagnation points of the step, or both, depending on the angle of incline. Stokes lines emanate from these singularities, and exponentially small waves are switched on at the point the Stokes lines intersect with the free surface. Our results suggest that for a certain range of step angles, two wavetrains are switched on, but the exponentially subdominant one is switched on first, leading to an intermediate wavetrain not previously noted. We extend these ideas to the problem of flow over a submerged bump or trench, again with inclined sides. This time there may be two, three or four active Stokes lines, depending on the inclination angles. We demonstrate how to construct a base topography such that wave contributions from separate Stokes lines are of equal magnitude but opposite phase, thus cancelling out. Our asymptotic results are complemented by numerical solutions to the fully nonlinear equations.

Socio-economic differences in takeaway food consumption among adults

To examine socioeconomic differences in the frequency and types of takeaway foods consumed. Cross-sectional postal survey. Participants were asked about their usual consumption of overall takeaway food (< four times a month, or ≥ four times a month) and 22 specific takeaway food items (< once a month, or ≥ once a month): these latter foods were grouped into “healthy” and “less healthy” choices. Socioeconomic position was measured using education and equivalised household income and differences in takeaway food consumption were assessed by calculating prevalence ratios using log binomial regression. Adults aged 25–64 years from Brisbane, Australia were randomly selected from the electoral roll (N = 903, 63.7% response rate). Compared with their more educated counterparts, the least educated were more regular consumers of overall takeaway food, fruit/vegetable juice, and less regular consumers of sushi. For the “less healthy” items, the least educated more regularly consumed potato chips, savoury pies, fried chicken, and non-diet soft drinks; however, the least educated were less likely to consume curry. Household income was not associated with overall takeaway consumption. The lowest income group were more regular consumers of fruit/vegetable juice compared with the highest income group. Among the “less healthy” items, the lowest income group were more regular consumers of fried fish, ice-cream, and milk shakes, while curry was consumed less regularly. The frequency and types of takeaway foods consumed by socioeconomically disadvantaged groups may contribute to inequalities in overweight/obesity and chronic disease.

The RatSLAM project : robot spatial navigation

Rats are superior to the most advanced robots when it comes to creating and exploiting spatial representations. A wild rat can have a foraging range of hundreds of meters, possibly kilometers, and yet the rodent can unerringly return to its home after each foraging mission, and return to profitable foraging locations at a later date (Davis, et al., 1948). The rat runs through undergrowth and pipes with few distal landmarks, along paths where the visual, textural, and olfactory appearance constantly change (Hardy and Taylor, 1980; Recht, 1988). Despite these challenges the rat builds, maintains, and exploits internal representations of large areas of the real world throughout its two to three year lifetime. While algorithms exist that allow robots to build maps, the questions of how to maintain those maps and how to handle change in appearance over time remain open. The robotic approach to map building has been dominated by algorithms that optimise the geometry of the map based on measurements of distances to features. In a robotic approach, measurements of distance to features are taken with range-measuring devices such as laser range finders or ultrasound sensors, and in some cases estimates of depth from visual information. The features are incorporated into the map based on previous readings of other features in view and estimates of self-motion. The algorithms explicitly model the uncertainty in measurements of range and the measurement of self-motion, and use probability theory to find optimal solutions for the geometric configuration of the map features (Dissanayake, et al., 2001; Thrun and Leonard, 2008). Some of the results from the application of these algorithms have been impressive, ranging from three-dimensional maps of large urban strucutures (Thrun and Montemerlo, 2006) to natural environments (Montemerlo, et al., 2003).

The risk of airborne influenza transmission in passenger cars

Travel in passenger cars is a ubiquitous aspect of the daily activities of many people. During the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic a case of probable transmission during car travel was reported in Australia, to which spread via the airborne route may have contributed. However, there are no data to indicate the likely risks of such events, and how they may vary and be mitigated. To address this knowledge gap, we estimated the risk of airborne influenza transmission in two cars (1989 model and 2005 model) by employing ventilation measurements and a variation of the Wells-Riley model. Results suggested that infection risk can be reduced by not recirculating air; however, estimated risk ranged from 59 to 99.9% for a 90 min trip when air was recirculated in the newer vehicle. These results have implications for interrupting in-car transmission of other illnesses spread by the airborne route.