A flexible Bayesian model for describing temporal variability of N2O emissions from an Australian pasture

Soil-based emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O), a well-known greenhouse gas, have been associated with changes in soil water-filled pore space (WFPS) and soil temperature in many previous studies. However, it is acknowledged that the environment-N2O relationship is complex and still relatively poorly unknown. In this article, we employed a Bayesian model selection approach (Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo) to develop a data-informed model of the relationship between daily N2O emissions and daily WFPS and soil temperature measurements between March 2007 and February 2009 from a soil under pasture in Queensland, Australia, taking seasonal factors and time-lagged effects into account. The model indicates a very strong relationship between a hybrid seasonal structure and daily N2O emission, with the latter substantially increased in summer. Given the other variables in the model, daily soil WFPS, lagged by a week, had a negative influence on daily N2O; there was evidence of a nonlinear positive relationship between daily soil WFPS and daily N2O emission; and daily soil temperature tended to have a linear positive relationship with daily N2O emission when daily soil temperature was above a threshold of approximately 19°C. We suggest that this flexible Bayesian modeling approach could facilitate greater understanding of the shape of the covariate-N2O flux relation and detection of effect thresholds in the natural temporal variation of environmental variables on N2O emission.

Heat-producing crust regulation of subsurface temperatures : a stochastic model re-evaluation of the geothermal potential in western Queensland, Australia

A large subsurface, elevated temperature anomaly is well documented in Central Australia. High Heat Producing Granites (HHPGs) intersected by drilling at Innamincka are often assumed to be the dominant cause of the elevated subsurface temperatures, although their presence in other parts of the temperature anomaly has not been confirmed. Geological controls on the temperature anomaly remain poorly understood. Additionally, methods previously used to predict temperature at 5 km depth in this area are simplistic and possibly do not give an accurate representation of the true distribution and magnitude of the temperature anomaly. Here we re-evaluate the geological controls on geothermal potential in the Queensland part of the temperature anomaly using a stochastic thermal model. The results illustrate that the temperature distribution is most sensitive to the thermal conductivity structure of the top 5 km. Furthermore, the results indicate the presence of silicic crust enriched in heat producing elements between and 40 km.

Characterisation of Polycaprolatone-Based Scaffold Plus Recombinant Human Morphogenetic Protein - 2 (RHBMP-2) in an Ovine Thoracic Spine Model

This thesis represents a step forward in the development of a pre-clinical model investigating a suitable substitute for host bone for use in human spinal fusion. By way of an animal model, it examines the biological performance of a novel bone graft substitute comprised of a combination of a custom-designed biodegradable material and biologics.

The essential parameters of a resource-based carrying capacity assessment model : an Australian case study

Carrying capacity assessments model a population’s potential self-sufficiency. A crucial first step in the development of such modelling is to examine the basic resource-based parameters defining the population’s production and consumption habits. These parameters include basic human needs such as food, water, shelter and energy together with climatic, environmental and behavioural characteristics. Each of these parameters imparts land-usage requirements in different ways and varied degrees so their incorporation into carrying capacity modelling also differs. Given that the availability and values of production parameters may differ between locations, no two carrying capacity models are likely to be exactly alike. However, the essential parameters themselves can remain consistent so one example, the Carrying Capacity Dashboard, is offered as a case study to highlight one way in which these parameters are utilised. While examples exist of findings made from carrying capacity assessment modelling, to date, guidelines for replication of such studies in other regions and scales have largely been overlooked. This paper addresses such shortcomings by describing a process for the inclusion and calibration of the most important resource-based parameters in a way that could be repeated elsewhere.

Characterisation of a human skin equivalent model to study the effects of ultraviolet B radiation on keratinocytes

The incidences of skin cancers resulting from chronic ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure are on the incline both in Australia and globally. Hence, the cellular and molecular pathways associated with UVR-induced photocarcinogenesis urgently need to be elucidated, in order to develop more robust preventative and treatment strategies against skin cancers. In vitro investigations into the effects of UVR (in particular the highly-mutagenic UVB wavelength) have, to date, mainly involved the use of cell culture and animal models. However, these models possess biological disparities to native skin, which to some extent have limited their relevance to the in vivo situation. To address this, we characterised a 3-dimensional, tissue-engineered human skin equivalent (HSE) model (consisting of primary human keratinocytes cultured on a dermal-derived scaffold) as a representation of a more physiologically-relevant platform to study keratinocyte responses to UVB. Significantly, we demonstrate that this model retains several important epidermal properties of native skin. Moreover, UVB-irradiation of the HSE constructs was shown to induce key markers of photodamage in the HSE keratinocytes, including the formation of cyclobutane pyrimidine dimers, the activation of apoptotic pathways, the accumulation of p53 and the secretion of inflammatory cytokines. Importantly, we also demonstrate that the UVB-exposed HSE constructs retain the capacity for epidermal repair and regeneration following photodamage. Together, our results demonstrate the potential of this skin equivalent model as a tool to study various aspects of the acute responses of human keratinocytes to UVB radiation damage.

Existence of travelling wave solutions for a model of tumour invasion

The existence of travelling wave solutions to a haptotaxis dominated model is analysed. A version of this model has been derived in Perumpanani et al. (1999) to describe tumour invasion, where diffusion is neglected as it is assumed to play only a small role in the cell migration. By instead allowing diffusion to be small, we reformulate the model as a singular perturbation problem, which can then be analysed using geometric singular perturbation theory. We prove the existence of three types of physically realistic travelling wave solutions in the case of small diffusion. These solutions reduce to the no diffusion solutions in the singular limit as diffusion as is taken to zero. A fourth travelling wave solution is also shown to exist, but that is physically unrealistic as it has a component with negative cell population. The numerical stability, in particular the wavespeed of the travelling wave solutions is also discussed.

A geometric construction of travelling wave solutions to the Keller–Segel model

We study a version of the Keller–Segel model for bacterial chemotaxis, for which exact travelling wave solutions are explicitly known in the zero attractant diffusion limit. Using geometric singular perturbation theory, we construct travelling wave solutions in the small diffusion case that converge to these exact solutions in the singular limit.

Spatial prediction of N2O emissions in pasture : a Bayesian model averaging analysis

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is one of the greenhouse gases that can contribute to global warming. Spatial variability of N2O can lead to large uncertainties in prediction. However, previous studies have often ignored the spatial dependency to quantify the N2O - environmental factors relationships. Few researches have examined the impacts of various spatial correlation structures (e.g. independence, distance-based and neighbourhood based) on spatial prediction of N2O emissions. This study aimed to assess the impact of three spatial correlation structures on spatial predictions and calibrate the spatial prediction using Bayesian model averaging (BMA) based on replicated, irregular point-referenced data. The data were measured in 17 chambers randomly placed across a 271 m(2) field between October 2007 and September 2008 in the southeast of Australia. We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and a Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) model to investigate and accommodate spatial dependency, and to estimate the effects of environmental variables on N2O emissions across the study site. We compared these with a Bayesian regression model with independent errors. The three approaches resulted in different derived maps of spatial prediction of N2O emissions. We found that incorporating spatial dependency in the model not only substantially improved predictions of N2O emission from soil, but also better quantified uncertainties of soil parameters in the study. The hybrid model structure obtained by BMA improved the accuracy of spatial prediction of N2O emissions across this study region.

The development of a carrying capacity assessment model for the Australian socio-environmental context

A key aim of this research was to highlight how society's understanding of constraints to the productive capacity of its resource base is vital to its long-term survival. This was achieved through the development of an online model, the Carrying Capacity Dashboard. The Dashboard was developed to estimate how much land Australian populations require for the production of their food, textiles, timber and liquid fuel. Findings reveal that Australia's estimated carrying capacity is currently over 40 million people but longer-term and more regional analyses suggest a much smaller number. Carrying capacity assessment also indicates that optimal resource security is to be found in balancing both small and large-scale self-sufficiency.

Using performance-based evaluation to close the loop between biological and robotic navigation

In this paper we describe the benefits of a performance-based approach to modeling biological systems for use in robotics. Specifically, we describe the RatSLAM system, a computational model of the navigation processes thought to drive navigation in a part of the rodent brain called the hippocampus. Unlike typical computational modeling approaches, which focus on biological fidelity, RatSLAM’s development cycle has been driven primarily by performance evaluation on robots navigating in a wide variety of challenging, real world environments. We briefly describe three seminal results, two in robotics and one in biology. In addition, we present current research on brain-inspired learning algorithms with the aim of enabling a robot to autonomously learn how best to use its sensor suite to navigate, without requiring any specific knowledge of the robot, sensor types or environment characteristics. Our aim is to drive discussion on the merits of practical, performance-focused implementations of biological models in robotics.

Higher Education and Sustainable Development : A Model for Curriculum Renewal

Responding to the global and unprecedented challenge of capacity building for twenty-first century life, this book is a practical guide for tertiary education institutions to quickly and effectively renew the curriculum towards education for sustainable development. The book begins by exploring why curriculum change has been so slow. It then describes a model for rapid curriculum renewal, highlighting the important roles of setting timeframes, formal and informal leadership, and key components and action strategies. The second part of the book provides detailed coverage of six core elements that have been trialled and peer reviewed by institutions around the world: - raising awareness among staff and students - mapping graduate attributes - auditing the curriculum - developing niche degrees, flagship courses and fully integrated programs - engaging and catalysing community and student markets - integrating curriculum with green campus operations. With input from more than seventy academics and grounded in engineering education experiences, this book will provide academic staff with tools and insights to rapidly align program offerings with the needs of present and future generations of students.

A simple model for the establishment of tick-borne pathogens of Ixodes scapularis : a global sensitivity analysis of R0

The basic reproduction number of a pathogen, R 0, determines whether a pathogen will spread (R0>1R 0>1), when introduced into a fully susceptible population or fade out (R0<1R 0<1), because infected hosts do not, on average, replace themselves. In this paper we develop a simple mechanistic model for the basic reproduction number for a group of tick-borne pathogens that wholly, or almost wholly, depend on horizontal transmission to and from vertebrate hosts. This group includes the causative agent of Lyme disease, Borrelia burgdorferi, and the causative agent of human babesiosis, Babesia microti, for which transmission between co-feeding ticks and vertical transmission from adult female ticks are both negligible. The model has only 19 parameters, all of which have a clear biological interpretation and can be estimated from laboratory or field data. The model takes into account the transmission efficiency from the vertebrate host as a function of the days since infection, in part because of the potential for this dynamic to interact with tick phenology, which is also included in the model. This sets the model apart from previous, similar models for R0 for tick-borne pathogens. We then define parameter ranges for the 19 parameters using estimates from the literature, as well as laboratory and field data, and perform a global sensitivity analysis of the model. This enables us to rank the importance of the parameters in terms of their contribution to the observed variation in R0. We conclude that the transmission efficiency from the vertebrate host to Ixodes scapularis ticks, the survival rate of Ixodes scapularis from fed larva to feeding nymph, and the fraction of nymphs finding a competent host, are the most influential factors for R0. This contrasts with other vector borne pathogens where it is usually the abundance of the vector or host, or the vector-to-host ratio, that determine conditions for emergence. These results are a step towards a better understanding of the geographical expansion of currently emerging horizontally transmitted tick-borne pathogens such as Babesia microti, as well as providing a firmer scientific basis for targeted use of acaricide or the application of wildlife vaccines that are currently in development.

Informing engineering education for sustainable development using a deliberative dynamic model for curriculum renewal

Literature from around the world clearly suggests that engineering education has been relatively slow to incorporate significant knowledge and skill areas, including the rapidly emerging area of sustainable development. Within this context, this paper presents the findings of research that questioned how engineering educators could consistently implement systematic and intentional curriculum renewal that is responsive to emerging engineering challenges and opportunities. The paper presents a number of elements of systematic and intentional curriculum renewal that have been empirically distilled from a qualitative multiple-method iterative research approach including literature review, narrative enquiry, pilot trials and peer-review workshops undertaken by the authors with engineering educators from around the world. The paper also presents new knowledge arising from the research, in the form of a new model that demonstrates a dynamic and deliberative mechanism for strategically accelerating for curriculum renewal efforts. Specifically the paper discusses implications of this model to achieve education for sustainable development, across all disciplines of engineering. It concludes with broader research and practice implications for the field of education research.

Molecular sliding filament model for muscular contraction based on multiscale investigation

A multiscale approach that bridges the biophysics of the actin molecules at nanoscale and the biomechanics of actin filament at microscale level is developed and used to evaluate the mechanical performances of actin filament bundles. In order to investigate the contractile properties of skeletal muscle which is induced by the protein motor of myosin, a molecular model is proposed in the prediction of the dynamic behaviors of skeletal muscle based on classic sliding filament model. Randomly distributed myosin motors are applied on a 2.2 μm long sarcomere, whose principal components include actin and myosin filaments. It can be found that, the more myosin motors on the sarcomere, the faster the sarcomere contracts. The result demonstrates that the sarcomere shortening speed cannot increase infinitely by the modulation of myosin, thus providing insight into the self-protective properties of skeletal muscles. This molecular filament sliding model provides a theoretical way to evaluate the properties of skeletal muscles, and contributes to the understandings of the molecular mechanisms in the physiological phenomenon of muscular contraction.

Assessment of angiogenic potential--the use of AIDS-KS cell supernatants as an in vitro model

Metastasis, the passage of primary tumour cells throughout the body via the vascular system and their subsequent proliferation into secondary lesions in distant organs, represents a poor prognosis and therefore an understandably feared event for cancer patients. Despite considerable advances in cancer diagnosis and treatment, most deaths are the result of metastases resistant to conventional treatment [1]. Rather than being a random process, metastasis involves a series of organised steps leading to the growth of a secondary tumour. Malignant tumours stimulate the production of new vessels by the host, and this process is a prerequisite for the increase in size of a new tumour [2]. Angiogenesis, not only permits tumour expansion but also allows the entry of tumour cells into the circulation and is probably the most vital event for the metastatic process [3]. Metastasis and angiogenesis [4] have received much attention in recent years. A biological understanding of both phenomena seems to be an urgent priority towards the search for an effective prevention and treatment of tumour progression. Studies in vitro and in vivo have shown that one of the most important barriers to the passage of malignant cells is the basement membrane. The crossing of such barriers is a vital step in the formation of a metastasis [5].