Asymptotic minimax robust and misspecified Lorden quickest change detection for dependent stochastic processes

The quick detection of an abrupt unknown change in the conditional distribution of a dependent stochastic process has numerous applications. In this paper, we pose a minimax robust quickest change detection problem for cases where there is uncertainty about the post-change conditional distribution. Our minimax robust formulation is based on the popular Lorden criteria of optimal quickest change detection. Under a condition on the set of possible post-change distributions, we show that the widely known cumulative sum (CUSUM) rule is asymptotically minimax robust under our Lorden minimax robust formulation as a false alarm constraint becomes more strict. We also establish general asymptotic bounds on the detection delay of misspecified CUSUM rules (i.e. CUSUM rules that are designed with post- change distributions that differ from those of the observed sequence). We exploit these bounds to compare the delay performance of asymptotically minimax robust, asymptotically optimal, and other misspecified CUSUM rules. In simulation examples, we illustrate that asymptotically minimax robust CUSUM rules can provide better detection delay performance at greatly reduced computation effort compared to competing generalised likelihood ratio procedures.

The rule of law, the public interest and the management of natural resources in Australia

The statutory arrangements for the management of natural resources in Australia confer powers of decision-making upon government agencies and, at the same time, restrict how these powers are to be exercised by reference either to stated criteria or in some instances to the public interest. These restrictions perform different functions according to their structure, form and language: for example they may be in the form of jurisdictional, deliberative or purposive rules. This article reviews how the offshore resources legislation of the Commonwealth and some examples of the onshore resources legislation of Queensland address the functions performed by the public interest in determining whether there is compliance with the principle of the rule of law.

Defining the spatiotemporal surveillance space for alien species’ invasions using approximate Bayesian computation

The spatiotemporal dynamics of an alien species invasion across a real landscape are typically complex. While surveillance is an essential part of a management response, planning surveillance in space and time present a difficult challenge due to this complexity. We show here a method for determining the highest probability sites for occupancy across a landscape at an arbitrary point in the future, based on occupancy data from a single slice in time. We apply to the method to the invasion of Giant Hogweed, a serious weed in the Czech republic and throughout Europe.

Predicting sense convergence with distributional semantics : an application to the CogALex-IV 2014 shared task

This paper presents our system to address the CogALex-IV 2014 shared task of identifying a single word most semantically related to a group of 5 words (queries). Our system uses an implementation of a neural language model and identifies the answer word by finding the most semantically similar word representation to the sum of the query representations. It is a fully unsupervised system which learns on around 20% of the UkWaC corpus. It correctly identifies 85 exact correct targets out of 2,000 queries, 285 approximate targets in lists of 5 suggestions.

Interpreting scratch assays using pair density dynamics and approximate Bayesian computation

Quantifying the impact of biochemical compounds on collective cell spreading is an essential element of drug design, with various applications including developing treatments for chronic wounds and cancer. Scratch assays are a technically simple and inexpensive method used to study collective cell spreading; however, most previous interpretations of scratch assays are qualitative and do not provide estimates of the cell diffusivity, D, or the cell proliferation rate,l. Estimating D and l is important for investigating the efficacy of a potential treatment and provides insight into the mechanism through which the potential treatment acts. While a few methods for estimating D and l have been proposed, these previous methods lead to point estimates of D and l, and provide no insight into the uncertainty in these estimates. Here, we compare various types of information that can be extracted from images of a scratch assay, and quantify D and l using discrete computational simulations and approximate Bayesian computation. We show that it is possible to robustly recover estimates of D and l from synthetic data, as well as a new set of experimental data. For the first time, our approach also provides a method to estimate the uncertainty in our estimates of D and l. We anticipate that our approach can be generalized to deal with more realistic experimental scenarios in which we are interested in estimating D and l, as well as additional relevant parameters such as the strength of cell-to-cell adhesion or the strength of cell-to-substrate adhesion.

On the effect of topology on cellular automata rule spaces

This thesis presents an empirical study of the effects of topology on cellular automata rule spaces. The classical definition of a cellular automaton is restricted to that of a regular lattice, often with periodic boundary conditions. This definition is extended to allow for arbitrary topologies. The dynamics of cellular automata within the triangular tessellation were analysed when transformed to 2-manifolds of topological genus 0, genus 1 and genus 2. Cellular automata dynamics were analysed from a statistical mechanics perspective. The sample sizes required to obtain accurate entropy calculations were determined by an entropy error analysis which observed the error in the computed entropy against increasing sample sizes. Each cellular automata rule space was sampled repeatedly and the selected cellular automata were simulated over many thousands of trials for each topology. This resulted in an entropy distribution for each rule space. The computed entropy distributions are indicative of the cellular automata dynamical class distribution. Through the comparison of these dynamical class distributions using the E-statistic, it was identified that such topological changes cause these distributions to alter. This is a significant result which implies that both global structure and local dynamics play a important role in defining long term behaviour of cellular automata.

Approximate Bayesian Computation for astronomical model analysis : a case study in galaxy demographics and morphological transformation at high redshift

Approximate Bayesian Computation’ (ABC) represents a powerful methodology for the analysis of complex stochastic systems for which the likelihood of the observed data under an arbitrary set of input parameters may be entirely intractable – the latter condition rendering useless the standard machinery of tractable likelihood-based, Bayesian statistical inference [e.g. conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation]. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential of ABC for astronomical model analysis by application to a case study in the morphological transformation of high-redshift galaxies. To this end, we develop, first, a stochastic model for the competing processes of merging and secular evolution in the early Universe, and secondly, through an ABC-based comparison against the observed demographics of massive (Mgal > 1011 M⊙) galaxies (at 1.5 < z < 3) in the Cosmic Assembly Near-IR Deep Extragalatic Legacy Survey (CANDELS)/Extended Groth Strip (EGS) data set we derive posterior probability densities for the key parameters of this model. The ‘Sequential Monte Carlo’ implementation of ABC exhibited herein, featuring both a self-generating target sequence and self-refining MCMC kernel, is amongst the most efficient of contemporary approaches to this important statistical algorithm. We highlight as well through our chosen case study the value of careful summary statistic selection, and demonstrate two modern strategies for assessment and optimization in this regard. Ultimately, our ABC analysis of the high-redshift morphological mix returns tight constraints on the evolving merger rate in the early Universe and favours major merging (with disc survival or rapid reformation) over secular evolution as the mechanism most responsible for building up the first generation of bulges in early-type discs.

Model choice problems using approximate Bayesian computation with applications to pathogen transmission data sets

Analytically or computationally intractable likelihood functions can arise in complex statistical inferential problems making them inaccessible to standard Bayesian inferential methods. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods address such inferential problems by replacing direct likelihood evaluations with repeated sampling from the model. ABC methods have been predominantly applied to parameter estimation problems and less to model choice problems due to the added difficulty of handling multiple model spaces. The ABC algorithm proposed here addresses model choice problems by extending Fearnhead and Prangle (2012, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 74, 1–28) where the posterior mean of the model parameters estimated through regression formed the summary statistics used in the discrepancy measure. An additional stepwise multinomial logistic regression is performed on the model indicator variable in the regression step and the estimated model probabilities are incorporated into the set of summary statistics for model choice purposes. A reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo step is also included in the algorithm to increase model diversity for thorough exploration of the model space. This algorithm was applied to a validating example to demonstrate the robustness of the algorithm across a wide range of true model probabilities. Its subsequent use in three pathogen transmission examples of varying complexity illustrates the utility of the algorithm in inferring preference of particular transmission models for the pathogens.

Detecting approximate clones in business process model repositories

Empirical evidence shows that repositories of business process models used in industrial practice contain significant amounts of duplication. This duplication arises for example when the repository covers multiple variants of the same processes or due to copy-pasting. Previous work has addressed the problem of efficiently retrieving exact clones that can be refactored into shared subprocess models. This article studies the broader problem of approximate clone detection in process models. The article proposes techniques for detecting clusters of approximate clones based on two well-known clustering algorithms: DBSCAN and Hi- erarchical Agglomerative Clustering (HAC). The article also defines a measure of standardizability of an approximate clone cluster, meaning the potential benefit of replacing the approximate clones with a single standardized subprocess. Experiments show that both techniques, in conjunction with the proposed standardizability measure, accurately retrieve clusters of approximate clones that originate from copy-pasting followed by independent modifications to the copied fragments. Additional experiments show that both techniques produce clusters that match those produced by human subjects and that are perceived to be standardizable.

Pre-processing for approximate Bayesian computation in image analysis

Most of the existing algorithms for approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) assume that it is feasible to simulate pseudo-data from the model at each iteration. However, the computational cost of these simulations can be prohibitive for high dimensional data. An important example is the Potts model, which is commonly used in image analysis. Images encountered in real world applications can have millions of pixels, therefore scalability is a major concern. We apply ABC with a synthetic likelihood to the hidden Potts model with additive Gaussian noise. Using a pre-processing step, we fit a binding function to model the relationship between the model parameters and the synthetic likelihood parameters. Our numerical experiments demonstrate that the precomputed binding function dramatically improves the scalability of ABC, reducing the average runtime required for model fitting from 71 hours to only 7 minutes. We also illustrate the method by estimating the smoothing parameter for remotely sensed satellite imagery. Without precomputation, Bayesian inference is impractical for datasets of that scale.