Bayesian hierarchical models in statistical quality control methods to improve healthcare in hospitals

Quality oriented management systems and methods have become the dominant business and governance paradigm. From this perspective, satisfying customers’ expectations by supplying reliable, good quality products and services is the key factor for an organization and even government. During recent decades, Statistical Quality Control (SQC) methods have been developed as the technical core of quality management and continuous improvement philosophy and now are being applied widely to improve the quality of products and services in industrial and business sectors. Recently SQC tools, in particular quality control charts, have been used in healthcare surveillance. In some cases, these tools have been modified and developed to better suit the health sector characteristics and needs. It seems that some of the work in the healthcare area has evolved independently of the development of industrial statistical process control methods. Therefore analysing and comparing paradigms and the characteristics of quality control charts and techniques across the different sectors presents some opportunities for transferring knowledge and future development in each sectors. Meanwhile considering capabilities of Bayesian approach particularly Bayesian hierarchical models and computational techniques in which all uncertainty are expressed as a structure of probability, facilitates decision making and cost-effectiveness analyses. Therefore, this research investigates the use of quality improvement cycle in a health vii setting using clinical data from a hospital. The need of clinical data for monitoring purposes is investigated in two aspects. A framework and appropriate tools from the industrial context are proposed and applied to evaluate and improve data quality in available datasets and data flow; then a data capturing algorithm using Bayesian decision making methods is developed to determine economical sample size for statistical analyses within the quality improvement cycle. Following ensuring clinical data quality, some characteristics of control charts in the health context including the necessity of monitoring attribute data and correlated quality characteristics are considered. To this end, multivariate control charts from an industrial context are adapted to monitor radiation delivered to patients undergoing diagnostic coronary angiogram and various risk-adjusted control charts are constructed and investigated in monitoring binary outcomes of clinical interventions as well as postintervention survival time. Meanwhile, adoption of a Bayesian approach is proposed as a new framework in estimation of change point following control chart’s signal. This estimate aims to facilitate root causes efforts in quality improvement cycle since it cuts the search for the potential causes of detected changes to a tighter time-frame prior to the signal. This approach enables us to obtain highly informative estimates for change point parameters since probability distribution based results are obtained. Using Bayesian hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo computational methods, Bayesian estimators of the time and the magnitude of various change scenarios including step change, linear trend and multiple change in a Poisson process are developed and investigated. The benefits of change point investigation is revisited and promoted in monitoring hospital outcomes where the developed Bayesian estimator reports the true time of the shifts, compared to priori known causes, detected by control charts in monitoring rate of excess usage of blood products and major adverse events during and after cardiac surgery in a local hospital. The development of the Bayesian change point estimators are then followed in a healthcare surveillances for processes in which pre-intervention characteristics of patients are viii affecting the outcomes. In this setting, at first, the Bayesian estimator is extended to capture the patient mix, covariates, through risk models underlying risk-adjusted control charts. Variations of the estimator are developed to estimate the true time of step changes and linear trends in odds ratio of intensive care unit outcomes in a local hospital. Secondly, the Bayesian estimator is extended to identify the time of a shift in mean survival time after a clinical intervention which is being monitored by riskadjusted survival time control charts. In this context, the survival time after a clinical intervention is also affected by patient mix and the survival function is constructed using survival prediction model. The simulation study undertaken in each research component and obtained results highly recommend the developed Bayesian estimators as a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances as well as industrial and business contexts. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The empirical results and simulations indicate that the Bayesian estimators are a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The advantages of the Bayesian approach seen in general context of quality control may also be extended in the industrial and business domains where quality monitoring was initially developed.

Particulate air pollution and cardiorespiratory hospital admissions in a temperate Australian city: A case-crossover analysis

Although ambient air pollution exposure has been linked with poor health in many parts of the world, no previous study has investigated the effect on morbidity in the city of Adelaide, South Australia. To explore the association between particulate matter (PM) and hospitalisations, including respiratory and cardiovascular admissions in Adelaide, South Australia. Methods: For the study period September 2001 to October 2007, daily counts of all-cause, cardiovascular and respiratory hospital admissions were collected, as well as daily air quality data including concentrations of particulates, ozone and nitrogen dioxide. Visibility codes for presentweather conditions identified dayswhen airborne dust or smoke was observed. The associations between PM and hospitalisations were estimated using timestratified case-crossover analyses controlling for covariates including temperature, relative humidity, other pollutants, day of the week and public holidays. Mean PM10 concentrations were higher in the warm season, whereas PM2.5 concentrations were higher in the cool season. Hospital admissions were associated with PM10 in the cool season and with PM2.5 in both seasons. No significant effect of PM on all-age respiratory admissions was detected, however cardiovascular admissions were associated with both PM2.5 and PM10 in the cool season with the highest effects for PM2.5 (4.48%, 95% CI: 0.74%, 8.36% increase per 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5). These findings suggest that despite the city's relatively low levels of air pollution, PMconcentrations are associated with increases in morbidity in Adelaide. Further studies are needed to investigate the sources of PM which may be contributing to the higher cool season effects.

Nanoparticles in European cities and associated health impacts

Atmospheric nanoparticles are one of those pollutants currently unregulated through ambient air quality standards. The aim of this chapter is to assess the environmental and health impacts of atmospheric nanoparticles in European environments. The chapter begins with the conventional information on the origin of atmospheric nanoparticles, followed by their physical and chemical characteristics. A brief overview of recently published review articles on this topic is then presented to guide those readers interested in exploring any specific aspect of nanoparticles in greater detail. A further section reports a summary of recently published studies on atmospheric nanoparticles in European cities. This covers a total of about 45 sampling locations in 30 different cities within 15 European countries for quantifying levels of roadside and urban background particle number concentrations (PNCs). Average PNCs at roadside and urban background sites were found to be 3.82±3.25 ×104 cm–3 and 1.63±0.82 ×104 cm–3, respectively, giving a roadside to background PNC ratio of ~2.4. Engineered nanoparticles are one of the key emerging categories of airborne nanoparticles, especially for the indoor environments. Their ambient concentrations may increase in future due to widespread use of nanotechnology integrated products. Evaluation of their sources and probable impacts on air quality and human health are briefly discussed in the following section. Respiratory deposition doses received by the public exposed to roadside PNCs in numerous European locations are then estimated. These were found to be in the 1.17–7.56 1010 h–1 range over the studied roadside European locations. The following section discusses the potential framework for airborne nanoparticle regulations in Europe and, in addition, the existing control measures to limit nanoparticle emissions at source. The chapter finally concludes with a synthesis of the topic areas covered and highlights important areas for further work.

Could BFFB mode breath aerosol play a role in H5N1 transmission?

Recent findings concerning exhaled aerosol size distributions and the regions in the respiratory tract in which they are generated could have significant implications for human to human spread of lower respiratory tract-specific infections. Even in healthy people, measurable quantities of aerosol are routinely generated from the Lower Respiratory Tract (LRT) during breathing(1-3). We have found that there at least three modes in the exhaled aerosol size distribution of healthy adults(4) (see Figure 1). These modes each have a characteristic size and arise from different parts of the respiratory tract. The respiratory bronchioles produce aerosol during breathing, the larynx during speech and the oral cavity also during speech. The model of the resulting droplet size distribution is therefore called the Bronchial Laryngeal Oral (B.L.O.) tri-modal model of expired aerosol.

Indoor and outdoor particle concentrations and elemental and organic carbon at 17 primary schools

The focus of this paper is on the measured particle number concentrations (PNC) as well as elemental and organic carbon in 17 primary schools. This study is part of the “Ultrafine Particles from Traffic Emissions and Children’s Health (UPTECH)”, which aims to determine the relationship between exposure to traffic related ultrafine (UF) particles and children’s health (http://www.ilaqh.qut.edu.au/Misc/UPTECH%20Home.htm). To achieve this, air quality and health data are being collected at 25 schools within Brisbane Metropolitan Area in Australia over two years. This paper presents the general aspects of UF particles data and preliminary results from the first 17 schools (S01 to S17), tested from Oct 2010 to Dec 2011.

School children’s personal exposure to ultrafine particles in urban environments

This work was motivated by the limited knowledge on personal exposure to ultrafine (UF) particles, and it quantifies school children’s personal exposure to UF particles, in terms of number, using Philips Aerasense Nano Tracers (NTs). This study is being conducted in conjunction with the “Ultrafine Particles from Traffic Emissions and Children’s Health (UPTECH)” project, which aims to determine the relationship between exposure to traffic related UF particles and children’s health (http://www.ilaqh.qut.edu.au/Misc/UPTECH%20 Home.htm). To achieve this, air quality and some health data are being collected at 25 schools within the Brisbane Metropolitan Area in Australia over two years. The school children’s personal exposure to UF particles in the first 17 schools are presented here. These schools were tested between Oct 2010 and Dec 2011. Data collection is expected to be complete by mid 2012.

The influence of oxygenated organic aerosols (OOA) and its volatile organic content on the oxidative potential of diesel particulate mater

Airborne particulate matter pollution is of concern for a number of reasons and has been widely recognised as an important risk factor to human health. A number of toxicological and epidemiological studies reported negative health effects on both respiratory and cardiovascular system. Despite the availability of a huge body of research, the underlying toxicological mechanisms by which particles induce adverse health effects are not yet entirely understood. The production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) has been shown to induce oxidative stress, which is proposed as a mechanism for many of the adverse health outcomes associated with exposure to particulate matter (PM). Therefore, it is crucial to introduce a technique that will allow rapid and routine screenings of the oxidative potential of PM.

Preliminary results on the characterisation of organic aerosols in urban schools by Aerosol Mass Spectrometry

Vehicle emissions have been linked to detrimental health effects with children thought to be more susceptible (See e.g., Ryan et al 2005). In an urban environment a major source of organic aerosols (OA) are vehicle emissions. The ambient concentration of OA is dynamic in nature and the use of an aerosol mass spectrometer can achieve the necessary temporal resolution to capture the daily variation of OA (Jimenez et al 2009). Currently there is a limited understanding of effects of long term exposure to traffic emissions on children’s health. In the present study, we used an aerosol mass spectrometer to monitor OA and determine children’s potential exposure at school to traffic emissions.In this paper, we present the preliminary results of this investigation. The study is a part of a larger project aimed at gaining a holistic picture of the exposure of children to traffic related pollutants, known as UPTECH (www.ilaqh.qut.edu.au/Misc/ UPTECH%20Home.htm).

The effect of charge on ultrafine particle deposition : an experimental pilot study

Eepidemiological studies have linked exposure to ultrafine particles (UFPs, <100 nm) to a variety of adverse health effects. To understand the mechanisms behind these effects, it is essential to measure aerosol deposition in the human respiratory tract. Electrical charge is a very important property as it may increase the particle deposition in human respiratory tract (Melanderi et al., 1983). However, the effect of charge on UFP deposition has seldom been investigated. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of charge on UFP deposition in human lung, by conducting a pilot study using a tube-based experimental system.

Particle nucleation in urban subtropical atmosphere

New particle formation (NPF) and growth have been observed in different environments all around the world and NPF affects the environment by forming cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Detailed characterisation of NPF events in a subtropical urban environment is the main aim of this study. Particle size distribution (PSD) of atmospheric aerosol particles in range 9-414 nm were measured using a Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer (SMPS), within the framework of the “Ultrafine Particles from Traffic Emissions and Children’s Health” (UPTECH) study, which seeks to determine the relationship between exposure to traffic related ultrafine particles and children’s health (http://www.ilaqh.qut. edu.au/Misc/UPTECH%20Home.htm). The UPTECH study includes measurements of air quality, meteorological and traffic parameters in 25 randomly selected state primary school within the Brisbane metropolitan area, in Queensland, Australia. Measurements at 17 schools have been completed so far.

Airborne concentration of Volatile Organic Compounds in school environment in Brisbane

Traffic emissions are considered as a major source of pollutants, particularly ultrafine particles, in the urban environment. There is an increased concern about airborne particles not only because of their environmental effects but also due to their potential adverse health effects on humans. There have been a number of studies related to the number concentration and size distribution of these particles but studies on the chemical composition of aerosols, especially in the school environment, are very limited. Mejia et. al (2011) reviewed studies on the exposure to and impact of air pollutants on school children and found that there were only a handful of studies on this topic. Therefore, the main focus of this research is on an analysis of the chemical composition of airborne particles, as well as source apportionment and the quantification of ambient concentrations of organic pollutants in the vicinity of schools, as a part of “Ultrafine Particles from Traffic Emissions on Children’s Health” (UPTECH) project. The aim of the present study was to find out the concentrations of different Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) in both outdoor and indoor locations from six different schools in Brisbane.

Determining the detection capabilities of existing real time measurement techniques for different engineered nanoparticles

The application of nanotechnology products has increased significantly in recent years. With their broad range of applications, including electronics, food and agriculture, power and energy, scientific instruments, clothing, cosmetics, buildings, biomedical and health, etc (Catanzariti, 2008), nanomaterials are an indispensible part of human life.

Experimental study of the effect of charge on ultrafine particle deposition

The health effects of ultrafine particles (UFPs, <100 nm) have received increasing attention in recent years and particles from a variety of indoor sources, such as combustion or printer emissions, fall within this size range. Since people spend most of their time indoors, knowledge on aerosol deposition in the human respiratory tract is essential to minimise the health risks associated with environmental or occupational exposure to aerosol particles. Among the factors that could alter particle deposition, electrical charge is important as it may increase particle deposition in human respiratory tract (Melanderi et al., 1983), even when particles carry only a few charges. However, evidence showing such an increase in particle deposition for UFPs is sparse. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of charge on the deposition of UFPs in the human lung by studying the deposition of charged particles in the conductive tubing of an experimental laboratory system.

Exposure to airborne fungi and bacteria in Brisbane houses after the 2011 flood

A series of flooding events occurred in Queensland, Australia during December 2010 and January 2011. The state’s capital city of Brisbane experienced major flooding in January 2011, when the Brisbane River broke its bank and inundated low lying areas.

Investigation of indoor and outdoor particle concentrations in Brisbane houses after the 2011 flood disaster

Many Brisbane houses were affected by water inundation as a result of the flooding event which occurred in January 2011. The combination of waterlogged materials and large amounts of silt and organic debris in affected homes gave rise to a situation where exposures to airborne particles could potentially be elevated. However, swift action to remove wet materials and dry out the building structures can help to reduce moisture and humidity in flooded houses, in an effort to prevent the growth of bacteria and mould and improve indoor air quality in and around flooded areas. To test this hypothesis, field measurements were carried out during 21 March and 3 May, 2011.