Exploring accuracy factors in cost estimating practice towards implementing Building Information Modelling (BIM)

Cost estimating has been acknowledged as a crucial component of construction projects. Depending on available information and project requirements, cost estimates evolve in tandem with project lifecycle stages; conceptualisation, design development, execution and facility management. The premium placed on the accuracy of cost estimates is crucial to producing project tenders and eventually in budget management. Notwithstanding the initial slow pace of its adoption, Building Information Modelling (BIM) has successfully addressed a number of challenges previously characteristic of traditional approaches in the AEC, including poor communication, the prevalence of islands of information and frequent reworks. Therefore, it is conceivable that BIM can be leveraged to address specific shortcomings of cost estimation. The impetus for leveraging BIM models for accurate cost estimation is to align budgeted and actual cost. This paper hypothesises that the accuracy of BIM-based estimation, as more efficient, process-mirrors of traditional cost estimation methods, can be enhanced by simulating traditional cost estimation factors variables. Through literature reviews and preliminary expert interviews, this paper explores the factors that could potentially lead to more accurate cost estimates for construction projects. The findings show numerous factors that affect the cost estimates ranging from project information and its characteristic, project team, clients, contractual matters, and other external influences. This paper will make a particular contribution to the early phase of BIM-based project estimation.

The role of environmental factors in the spatial distribution of Japanese encephalitis in mainland China

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is the most common cause of viral encephalitis and an important public health concern in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in China where 50% of global cases are notified. To explore the association between environmental factors and human JE cases and identify the high risk areas for JE transmission in China, we used annual notified data on JE cases at the center of administrative township and environmental variables with a pixel resolution of 1 km×1 km from 2005 to 2011 to construct models using ecological niche modeling (ENM) approaches based on maximum entropy. These models were then validated by overlaying reported human JE case localities from 2006 to 2012 onto each prediction map. ENMs had good discriminatory ability with the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating curve (ROC) of 0.82-0.91, and low extrinsic omission rate of 5.44-7.42%. Resulting maps showed JE being presented extensively throughout southwestern and central China, with local spatial variations in probability influenced by minimum temperatures, human population density, mean temperatures, and elevation, with contribution of 17.94%-38.37%, 15.47%-21.82%, 3.86%-21.22%, and 12.05%-16.02%, respectively. Approximately 60% of JE cases occurred in predicted high risk areas, which covered less than 6% of areas in mainland China. Our findings will help inform optimal geographical allocation of the limited resources available for JE prevention and control in China, find hidden high-risk areas, and increase the effectiveness of public health interventions against JE transmission.

Interaction between ERAP1 and HLA-B27 in ankylosing spondylitis implicates peptide handling in the mechanism for HLA-B27 in disease susceptibility

Ankylosing spondylitis is a common form of inflammatory arthritis predominantly affecting the spine and pelvis that occurs in approximately 5 out of 1,000 adults of European descent. Here we report the identification of three variants in the RUNX3, LTBR-TNFRSF1A and IL12B regions convincingly associated with ankylosing spondylitis (P < 5 × 10-8 in the combined discovery and replication datasets) and a further four loci at PTGER4, TBKBP1, ANTXR2 and CARD9 that show strong association across all our datasets (P < 5 × 10-6 overall, with support in each of the three datasets studied). We also show that polymorphisms of ERAP1, which encodes an endoplasmic reticulum aminopeptidase involved in peptide trimming before HLA class I presentation, only affect ankylosing spondylitis risk in HLA-B27-positive individuals. These findings provide strong evidence that HLA-B27 operates in ankylosing spondylitis through a mechanism involving aberrant processing of antigenic peptides.

Characteristics of road factors in multi and single vehicle motorcycle crashes in Queensland

Motorcyclists were involved in 6.4% of all police-reported crashes and 12.5% of all fatal crashes in Queensland during 2004-2011. Of these crashes, 43% were single-vehicle (SV) and 57% were multi-vehicle (MV). The overall reduction in motorcycle crashes in this period masked different trends: single-vehicle crashes increased while MV motorcycle crashes decreased. However, little research has been undertaken to understand the similarities and differences between SV and MV motorcycle crashes in Queensland and the factors underlying these diverging trends. The descriptive analyses and regression model developed here confirm international research findings regarding the greater role of road infrastructure factors in SV crashes. In particular, road geometric factors such as horizontal and vertical alignment and road surface factors such as sealed/unsealed and wet/dry were more important in SV than MV crashes.

Shift in disease burden from communicable to non-communicable diseases: Aiming to achieve Universal Health Coverage in Nepal

A major barrier to accessing healthcare services is spending, and the extended time that non-communicable diseases require treatment for means that many people around the world do not have proper access to care. Saval Khanal from Sankalpa Foundation, Nepal, Lennert Veerman and Samantha Hollingworth from the University of Queensland and Lisa Nissen from Queensland University of Technology lay out the results of their study and establish a method to forecast medicine use in Nepal.

Born leaders: Political selection and the relative age effect in the US Congress

We present substantial evidence for the existence of a bias in the distribution of births of leading US politicians in favour of those who were the eldest in their cohort at school. This result adds to the research on the long-term effects of relative age among peers at school. We discuss parametric and non-parametric tests to identify this effect, and we show that it is not driven by measurement error, redshirting or a sorting effect of highly educated parents. The magnitude of the effect that we estimate is larger than what other studies on ‘relative age effects’ have found for broader populations but is in general consistent with research that looks at professional sportsmen. We also find that relative age does not seem to correlate with the quality of elected politicians.

Identification methods of key contributing factors in crashes with high numbers of fatalities and injuries in China

Objectives In China, “serious road traffic crashes” (SRTCs) are those in which there are 10-30 fatalities, 50-100 serious injuries or a total cost of 50-100 million RMB ($US8-16m), and “particularly serious road traffic crashes” (PSRTCs) are those which are more severe or costly. Due to the large number of fatalities and injuries as well as the negative public reaction they elicit, SRTCs and PSRTCs have become great concerns to China during recent years. The aim of this study is to identify the main factors contributing to these road traffic crashes and to propose preventive measures to reduce their number. Methods 49 contributing factors of the SRTCs and PSRTCs that occurred from 2007 to 2013 were collected from the database “In-depth Investigation and Analysis System for Major Road traffic crashes” (IIASMRTC) and were analyzed through the integrated use of principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering to determine the primary and secondary groups of contributing factors. Results Speeding and overloading of passengers were the primary contributing factors, featuring in up to 66.3% and 32.6% of accidents respectively. Two secondary contributing factors were road-related: lack of or nonstandard roadside safety infrastructure, and slippery roads due to rain, snow or ice. Conclusions The current approach to SRTCs and PSRTCs is focused on the attribution of responsibility and the enforcement of regulations considered relevant to particular SRTCs and PSRTCs. It would be more effective to investigate contributing factors and characteristics of SRTCs and PSRTCs as a whole, to provide adequate information for safety interventions in regions where SRTCs and PSRTCs are more common. In addition to mandating of a driver training program and publicisation of the hazards associated with traffic violations, implementation of speed cameras, speed signs, markings and vehicle-mounted GPS are suggested to reduce speeding of passenger vehicles, while increasing regular checks by traffic police and passenger station staff, and improving transportation management to increase income of contractors and drivers are feasible measures to prevent overloading of people. Other promising measures include regular inspection of roadside safety infrastructure, and improving skid resistance on dangerous road sections in mountainous areas.

Is it the economy, stupid? The role of social versus economic factors in people’s support for hosting the Olympic Games: Evidence from 12 democratic countries

Public referenda have gained momentum as a democratic tool to legitimize public mega projects such as hosting the Olympic Games. Interest groups in favour of hosting the Olympics therefore try to influence voters through public campaigns that primarily focus on economic benefits. However, recent studies find no or hardly any economic impact of hosting the Olympics, instead providing evidence for a positive social impact. This raises the question whether citizens consider economic or social factors when deciding on hosting the Olympics. Based on representative survey data from 12 countries, our results suggest that economic factors can influence voting behaviour, although the influence of social factors is stronger.

Risk factors for malnutrition in community-dwelling people with Parkinson’s disease

In the elderly, the risks for protein-energy malnutrition from older age, dementia, depression and living alone have been well-documented. Other risk factors including anorexia, gastrointestinal dysfunction, loss of olfactory and taste senses and early satiety have also been suggested to contribute to poor nutritional status. In Parkinson’s disease (PD), it has been suggested that the disease symptoms may predispose people with PD to malnutrition. However, the risks for malnutrition in this population are not well-understood. The current study’s aim was to determine malnutrition risk factors in community-dwelling adults with PD. Nutritional status was assessed using the Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA). Data about age, time since diagnosis, medications and living situation were collected. Levodopa equivalent doses (LDED) and LDED per kg body weight (mg/kg) were calculated. Depression and anxiety were measured using the Beck’s Depression Inventory (BDI) and Spielberger Trait Anxiety questionnaire, respectively. Cognitive function was assessed using the Addenbrooke’s Cognitive Examination (ACE-R). Non-motor symptoms were assessed using the Scales for Outcomes in Parkinson's disease-Autonomic (SCOPA-AUT) and Modified Constipation Assessment Scale (MCAS). A total of 125 community-dwelling people with PD were included, average age of 70.2±9.3(35-92) years and average time since diagnosis of 7.3±5.9(0–31) years. Average body mass index (BMI) was 26.0±5.5kg/m2. Of these, 15% (n=19) were malnourished (SGA-B). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that older age (OR=1.16, CI=1.02-1.31), more depressive symptoms (OR=1.26, CI=1.07-1.48), lower levels of anxiety (OR=.90, CI=.82-.99), and higher LDED per kg body weight (OR=1.57, CI=1.14-2.15) significantly increased malnutrition risk. Cognitive function, living situation, number of prescription medications, LDED, years since diagnosis and the severity of non-motor symptoms did not significantly influence malnutrition risk. Malnutrition results in poorer health outcomes. Proactively addressing the risk factors can help prevent declines in nutritional status. In the current study, older people with PD with depression and greater amounts of levodopa per body weight were at increased malnutrition risk.

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. METHODS We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. INTERPRETATION Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.

Clinical factors associated with the humoral immune response to influenza vaccination in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Background and objective Individuals with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are at a high risk of developing significant complications from infection with the influenza virus. It is therefore vital to ensure that prophylaxis with the influenza vaccine is effective in COPD. The aim of this study was to assess the immunogenicity of the 2010 trivalent influenza vaccine in persons with COPD compared to healthy subjects without lung disease, and to examine clinical factors associated with the serological response to the vaccine. Methods In this observational study, 34 subjects (20 COPD, 14 healthy) received the 2010 influenza vaccine. Antibody titers at baseline and 28 days post-vaccination were measured using the hemagglutination inhibition assay (HAI) assay. Primary endpoints included seroconversion (≥4-fold increase in antibody titers from baseline) and the fold increase in antibody titer after vaccination. Results Persons with COPD mounted a significantly lower humoral immune response to the influenza vaccine compared to healthy participants. Seroconversion occurred in 90% of healthy participants, but only in 43% of COPD patients (P=0.036). Increasing age and previous influenza vaccination were associated with lower antibody responses. Antibody titers did not vary significantly with cigarette smoking, presence of other comorbid diseases, or COPD severity. Conclusion The humoral immune response to the 2010 influenza vaccine was lower in persons with COPD compared to non-COPD controls. The antibody response also declined with increasing age and in those with a history of prior vaccination.

Bone health in children with inflammatory bowel disease : adjusting for bone age

OBJECTIVES: Clinical results of bone mineral density for children with inflammatory bowel disease are commonly reported using reference data for chronological age. It is known that these children, particularly those with Crohn disease, experience delayed growth and maturation. Therefore, it is more appropriate to compare clinical results with bone age rather than chronological age. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Areal bone mineral density (aBMD) was measured using dual energy x-ray absorptiometry, and bone age was assessed using the Tanner-Whitehouse 3 method from a standard hand/wrist radiograph. Results were available for 44 children ages 7.99 to 16.89 years. Areal bone mineral density measurements were converted to z scores using both chronological and bone ages for each subject. RESULTS: Areal bone mineral density z scores calculated using bone age, as opposed to chronological age, were significantly improved for both the total body and lumbar spine regions of interest. When subjects were grouped according to diagnosis, bone age generated z scores remained significantly improved for those with Crohn disease but not for those diagnosed with ulcerative colitis. Grouping of children with Crohn disease into younger and older ages produced significantly higher z scores using bone age compared with chronological for the older age group, but not the younger age group. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings, in accordance with those presented in the literature, suggest that aBMD results in children with Crohn disease should include the consideration of bone age, rather than merely chronological age. Bone size, although not as easily available, would also be an important consideration for interpreting results in paediatric populations. © 2009 by European Society for Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology, and Nutrition and North American Society for Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology, and Nutrition.

Loci affecting gamma-glutamyl transferase in adults and adolescents show age x SNP interaction and cardiometabolic disease associations

Serum gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) activity is a marker of liver disease which is also prospectively associated with the risk of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes and cancers. We have discovered novel loci affecting GGT in a genome-wide association study (rs1497406 in an intergenic region of chromosome 1, P = 3.9 x 10(-8); rs944002 in C14orf73 on chromosome 14, P = 4.7 x 10(-13); rs340005 in RORA on chromosome 15, P = 2.4 x 10(-8)), and a highly significant heterogeneity between adult and adolescent results at the GGT1 locus on chromosome 22 (maximum P(HET) = 5.6 x 10(-12) at rs6519520). Pathway analysis of significant and suggestive single-nucleotide polymorphism associations showed significant overlap between genes affecting GGT and those affecting common metabolic and inflammatory diseases, and identified the hepatic nuclear factor (HNF) family as controllers of a network of genes affecting GGT. Our results reinforce the disease associations of GGT and demonstrate that control by the GGT1 locus varies with age.