Modeling random effect and excess zeros in road traffic accident prediction

Poisson distribution has often been used for count like accident data. Negative Binomial (NB) distribution has been adopted in the count data to take care of the over-dispersion problem. However, Poisson and NB distributions are incapable of taking into account some unobserved heterogeneities due to spatial and temporal effects of accident data. To overcome this problem, Random Effect models have been developed. Again another challenge with existing traffic accident prediction models is the distribution of excess zero accident observations in some accident data. Although Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) model is capable of handling the dual-state system in accident data with excess zero observations, it does not accommodate the within-location correlation and between-location correlation heterogeneities which are the basic motivations for the need of the Random Effect models. This paper proposes an effective way of fitting ZIP model with location specific random effects and for model calibration and assessment the Bayesian analysis is recommended.

The increased popularity of mopeds and motor scooters : exploring usage patterns and safety outcomes

Increased use of powered two-wheelers (PTWs) often underlies increases in the number of reported crashes, promoting research into PTW safety. PTW riders are overrepresented in crash and injury statistics relative to exposure and, as such, are considered vulnerable road users. PTW use has increased substantially over the last decade in many developed countries. One such country is Australia, where moped and scooter use has increased at a faster rate than motorcycle use in recent years. Increased moped use is particularly evident in the State of Queensland which is one of four Australian jurisdictions where moped riding is permitted for car licence holders and a motorcycle licence is not required. A moped is commonly a small motor scooter and is limited to a maximum design speed of 50 km/h and a maximum engine cylinder capacity of 50 cubic centimetres. Scooters exceeding either of these specifications are classed as motorcycles in all Australian jurisdictions. While an extensive body of knowledge exists on motorcycle safety, some of which is relevant to moped and scooter safety, the latter PTW types have received comparatively little focused research attention. Much of the research on moped safety to date has been conducted in Europe where they have been popular since the mid 20th century, while some studies have also been conducted in the United States. This research is of limited relevance to Australia due to socio-cultural, economic, regulatory and environmental differences. Moreover, while some studies have compared motorcycles to mopeds in terms of safety, no research to date has specifically examined the differences and similarities between mopeds and larger scooters, or between larger scooters and motorcycles. To address the need for a better understanding of moped and scooter use and safety, the current program of research involved three complementary studies designed to achieve the following aims: (1) develop better knowledge and understanding of moped and scooter usage trends and patterns; and (2) determine the factors leading to differences in moped, scooter and motorcycle safety. Study 1 involved six-monthly observations of PTW types in inner city parking areas of Queensland’s capital city, Brisbane, to monitor and quantify the types of PTW in use over a two year period. Study 2 involved an analysis of Queensland PTW crash and registration data, primarily comparing the police-reported crash involvement of mopeds, scooters and motorcycles over a five year period (N = 7,347). Study 3 employed both qualitative and quantitative methods to examine moped and scooter usage in two components: (a) four focus group discussions with Brisbane-based Queensland moped and scooter riders (N = 23); and (b) a state-wide survey of Queensland moped and scooter riders (N = 192). Study 1 found that of the PTW types parked in inner city Brisbane over the study period (N = 2,642), more than one third (36.1%) were mopeds or larger scooters. The number of PTWs observed increased at each six-monthly phase, but there were no significant changes in the proportions of PTW types observed across study phases. There were no significant differences in the proportions or numbers of PTW type observed by season. Study 2 revealed some important differences between mopeds, scooters and motorcycles in terms of safety and usage through analysis of crash and registration data. All Queensland PTW registrations doubled between 2001 and 2009, but there was an almost fifteen-fold increase in moped registrations. Mopeds subsequently increased as a proportion of Queensland registered PTWs from 1.2 percent to 8.8 percent over this nine year period. Moped and scooter crashes increased at a faster rate than motorcycle crashes over the five year study period from July 2003 to June 2008, reflecting their relatively greater increased usage. Crash rates per 10,000 registrations for the study period were only slightly higher for mopeds (133.4) than for motorcycles and scooters combined (124.8), but estimated crash rates per million vehicle kilometres travelled were higher for mopeds (6.3) than motorcycles and scooters (1.7). While the number of crashes increased for each PTW type over the study period, the rate of crashes per 10,000 registrations declined by 40 percent for mopeds compared with 22 percent for motorcycles and scooters combined. Moped and scooter crashes were generally less severe than motorcycle crashes and this was related to the particular crash characteristics of the PTW types rather than to the PTW types themselves. Compared to motorcycle and moped crashes, scooter crashes were less likely to be single vehicle crashes, to involve a speeding or impaired rider, to involve poor road conditions, or to be attributed to rider error. Scooter and moped crashes were more likely than motorcycle crashes to occur on weekdays, in lower speed zones and at intersections. Scooter riders were older on average (39) than moped (32) and motorcycle (35) riders, while moped riders were more likely to be female (36%) than scooter (22%) or motorcycle riders (7%). The licence characteristics of scooter and motorcycle riders were similar, with moped riders more likely to be licensed outside of Queensland and less likely to hold a full or open licence. The PTW type could not be identified in 15 percent of all cases, indicating a need for more complete recording of vehicle details in the registration data. The focus groups in Study 3a and the survey in Study 3b suggested that moped and scooter riders are a heterogeneous population in terms of demographic characteristics, riding experience, and knowledge and attitudes regarding safety and risk. The self-reported crash involvement of Study 3b respondents suggests that most moped and scooter crashes result in no injury or minor injury and are not reported to police. Study 3 provided some explanation for differences observed in Study 2 between mopeds and scooters in terms of crash involvement. On the whole, scooter riders were older, more experienced, more likely to have undertaken rider training and to value rider training programs. Scooter riders were also more likely to use protective clothing and to seek out safety-related information. This research has some important practical implications regarding moped and scooter use and safety. While mopeds and scooters are generally similar in terms of usage, and their usage has increased, scooter riders appear to be safer than moped riders due to some combination of superior skills and safer riding behaviour. It is reasonable to expect that mopeds and scooters will remain popular in Queensland in future and that their usage may further increase, along with that of motorcycles. Future policy and planning should consider potential options for encouraging moped riders to acquire better riding skills and greater safety awareness. While rider training and licensing appears an obvious potential countermeasure, the effectiveness of rider training has not been established and other options should also be strongly considered. Such options might include rider education and safety promotion, while interventions could also target other road users and urban infrastructure. Future research is warranted in regard to moped and scooter safety, particularly where the use of those PTWs has increased substantially from low levels. Research could address areas such as rider training and licensing (including program evaluations), the need for more detailed and reliable data (particularly crash and exposure data), protective clothing use, risks associated with lane splitting and filtering, and tourist use of mopeds. Some of this research would likely be relevant to motorcycle use and safety, as well as that of mopeds and scooters.

A cross sectional observational study of child restraint use in Queensland following changes in legislation

As part of an evaluation of the 2010 legislation for child vehicle occupants in Queensland, road-side observations of private passenger vehicles were used to estimate the proportions of children 0-under 7 years travelling in each of the 5 different restraint types (eg. forward facing child restraint). Data was collected in 4 major population centres: Brisbane, Sunshine Coast, Mackay and Townsville. Almost all children were restrained (95.1%, 95% CI 94.3-95.9%), with only 3.3% (95% CI 2.6-4.0%) clearly unrestrained and 44 (1.6%, 95% CI 1.1-2.1%) for whom restraint status could not be determined (‘unknown’). However, around 24.0% (95 CI 21.8-26.2%) of the target-aged children were deemed inappropriately restrained, primarily comprised of 3-6 year olds in seatbelts (18.7% of the 0-6 year olds, 95% CI 16.3-21.1%) or unrestrained (3.7% of the 0-6 year olds, 95% CI 2.5-4.9%) instead of booster seats. In addition, compliance appeared significantly lower for some regional locations where the proportion of children observed as completely unrestrained was relatively high and of concern

Explicit, latent and meta-criteria : types of criteria at play in professional judgement practice

This paper engages with debates about whether comprehensive prior specification of criteria and standards is sufficient for informed professional judgement. A preoccupation has emerged with the specificity and explication of criteria intended to regulate judgement. This has resulted in criteria-compliance in the use of defined standards to validate judgements and improve reliability and consistency. Compliance has become a priority, the consequence being the prominence of explicit criteria, to the lack of acknowledgement of the operation of latent and meta-criteria within judgement practice. This paper examines judgement as a process involving three categories of assessment criteria in the context of standards-referenced systems: explicit, latent and meta-criteria. These are understood to be wholly interrelated and interdependent. A conceptualisation of judgement involving the interplay of the three criteria types is presented with an exploration of how they function to focus or alter assessments of quality in judgements of achievement in English and Mathematics.

Personality and player types in Fallout New Vegas

The aim of this study was to explore the relationship between personality and videogame player types. Study participants completed an online survey that gathered information regarding the individual's personality, via the Big Five Inventory, and player types. The study was focused on understanding this relationship in the context of the action role-playing videogame, Fallout New Vegas (FNV). A relationship between personality and player type was found, specifically with respect to the personality traits of openness to experience and conscientiousness.

Relationship between the nature of the search task types and query reformulation behaviour

Success of query reformulation and relevant information retrieval depends on many factors, such as users’ prior knowledge, age, gender, and cognitive styles. One of the important factors that affect a user’s query reformulation behaviour is that of the nature of the search tasks. Limited studies have examined the impact of the search task types on query reformulation behaviour while performing Web searches. This paper examines how the nature of the search tasks affects users’ query reformulation behaviour during information searching. The paper reports empirical results from a user study in which 50 participants performed a set of three Web search tasks – exploratory, factorial and abstract. Users’ interactions with search engines were logged by using a monitoring program. 872 unique search queries were classified into five query types – New, Add, Remove, Replace and Repeat. Users submitted fewer queries for the factual task, which accounted for 26%. They completed a higher number of queries (40% of the total queries) while carrying out the exploratory task. A one-way MANOVA test indicated a significant effect of search task types on users’ query reformulation behaviour. In particular, the search task types influenced the manner in which users reformulated the New and Repeat queries.

Types of foot problems seen by Australian podiatrists

Background: Understanding frequency of foot problems can assist health care planners with resource deployment to new and emerging services such as paediatric podiatry and focus future research on the most salient foot conditions. Methods: A review of 2187 patient consultations during a three month period was conducted. Patient medical and podiatric history was coded using industry standards. All patients were recruited for convenience from a metropolitan university podiatry clinic. Results: 392 new patients were identified with mean age 40.6 years old (range 1–95), with 65% being female. Arthritic diseases, asthma, hypertension and allergies were the most common medical conditions reported. The frequency of new consultations in younger people (n = 102; 27%) exceeded those of the elderly (n = 75; 20%). Conversely, the elderly were nearly three times more prevalent in this cohort (n = 910; 43%) compared to younger people (n = 332; 16%). Conclusion: This study illustrates the diverse nature of pathology seen by podiatrists. Knowledge that skin lesions are highly prevalent is of relevance to health departments, given the aging nature of most populations. Moreover there appears to be a growing trend in the number of young people who present for care, however government funded access to these services are limited.

Measuring neighbourhood sustainability : a comparative analysis of residential types in Malaysia

The expansion of city-regions, the increase in the standard of living and changing lifestyles have collectively led to an increase in housing demand. New residential areas are encroaching onto the city fringes including suburban and green field areas. Large and small developers are actively building houses ranging from a few blocks to master-planned style projects. These residential developments, particularly in major urban areas, represent a large portion of urban land use in Malaysia, and, thus, have become a major contributor to overall urban sustainability. There are three main types that comprise the mainstream, and form integral parts to contemporary urban residential developments, namely, subdivision developments, piecemeal developments, and master-planned developments. Many new master-planned developments market themselves as environmentally friendly, and provide layouts that encompass sustainable design and development. To date, however, there have been limited studies conducted to examine such claims or to ascertain which of these three residential development layouts is more sustainable. To fill this gap, this research was undertaken to develop a framework for assessing the level of sustainability of residential developments, focusing on their layouts at the neighbourhood level. The development of this framework adopted a mixed method research strategy and embedded research design to achieve the study aim and objectives. Data were collected from two main sources, where quantitative data were gathered from a three-round Delphi survey and spatial data from a layout plan. Sample respondents for surveys were selected from among experts in the field of the built environment, both from Malaysia and internationally. As for spatial data, three case studies – master-planned, piecemeal and subdivision developments representing different types of neighbourhood developments in Malaysia have been selected. Prior to application on the case studies, the appropriate framework was subjected to validation to ascertain its robustness for application in Malaysia. Following the application of the framework on the three case studies the results revealed that master-planned development scored a better level of sustainability compared to piecemeal and subdivision developments. The results generated from this framework are expected to provide evidence to the policy makers and development agencies as well as provide an awareness of the level of sustainability and the necessary collective efforts required for developing sustainable neighbourhoods. Continuous assessment can facilitate a comparison of sustainability over time for neighbourhoods as a means to monitor changes in the level of sustainability. In addition, the framework is able to identify any particular indicator (issue) that causes a significant impact on sustainability.

Next-generation sequencing of cervical DNA detects human papillomavirus types not detected by commercial kits

Background Human papillomavirus (HPV) is the aetiological agent for cervical cancer and genital warts. Concurrent HPV and HIV infection in the South African population is high. HIV positive (+) women are often infected with multiple, rare and undetermined HPV types. Data on HPV incidence and genotype distribution are based on commercial HPV detection kits, but these kits may not detect all HPV types in HIV + women. The objectives of this study were to (i) identify the HPV types not detected by commercial genotyping kits present in a cervical specimen from an HIV positive South African woman using next generation sequencing, and (ii) determine if these types were prevalent in a cohort of HIV-infected South African women. Methods Total DNA was isolated from 109 cervical specimens from South African HIV + women. A specimen within this cohort representing a complex multiple HPV infection, with 12 HPV genotypes detected by the Roche Linear Array HPV genotyping (LA) kit, was selected for next generation sequencing analysis. All HPV types present in this cervical specimen were identified by Illumina sequencing of the extracted DNA following rolling circle amplification. The prevalence of the HPV types identified by sequencing, but not included in the Roche LA, was then determined in the 109 HIV positive South African women by type-specific PCR. Results Illumina sequencing identified a total of 16 HPV genotypes in the selected specimen, with four genotypes (HPV-30, 74, 86 and 90) not included in the commercial kit. The prevalence's of HPV-30, 74, 86 and 90 in 109 HIV positive South African women were found to be 14.6 %, 12.8 %, 4.6 % and 8.3 % respectively. Conclusions Our results indicate that there are HPV types, with substantial prevalence, in HIV positive women not being detected in molecular epidemiology studies using commercial kits. The significance of these types in relation to cervical disease remains to be investigated.

Analyses of systems theory for construction accident prevention with specific reference to OSHA accident reports

To enhance workplace safety in the construction industry it is important to understand interrelationships among safety risk factors associated with construction accidents. This study incorporates the systems theory into Heinrich’s domino theory to explore the interrelationships of risks and break the chain of accident causation. Through both empirical and statistical analyses of 9,358 accidents which occurred in the U.S. construction industry between 2002 and 2011, the study investigates relationships between accidents and injury elements (e.g., injury type, part of body, injury severity) and the nature of construction injuries by accident type. The study then discusses relationships between accidents and risks, including worker behavior, injury source, and environmental condition, and identifies key risk factors and risk combinations causing accidents. The research outcomes will assist safety managers to prioritize risks according to the likelihood of accident occurrence and injury characteristics, and pay more attention to balancing significant risk relationships to prevent accidents and achieve safer working environments.

Child car restraints : mandating type and seating row according to age with positive effect in regional city in Queensland, Australia

Road trauma is a leading cause of child injury worldwide. In highly motorised countries, injury as a passenger represents a major proportion of all child road deaths and hospitalisations. Australia is no exception, particularly since there are high levels of private motor vehicle travel to school in most Australian states. Recently the legislation governing the type of car restraints required for children aged under 7 years has changed in Australia, aligning requirements better with accepted best practice. However, it is unclear what effect these changes have had on children’s seating positions or the types of restraints used. A mixed methods evaluation of the impact of the new legislation on compliance was conducted at three times: baseline (Time 1); after announcement that changes were going to be implemented but before enforcement began (Time 2); and after enforcement commenced (Time 3). Measures of compliance were obtained using two methods: road-side observations of vehicles with child passengers; and parental self-report (intercept interviews conducted at Time 2 and Time 3 only). Results from the observations suggested an overall positive effect. Proportions of children occupying front seats decreased overall and use of dedicated child seats increased to almost 40% of the observed children by Time 3. However, almost a quarter of the children observed still occupied front seats. These results differed from those of the interview study where almost no children were reported as usually travelling in the front seat, and reported use of dedicated restraints with children was almost 90%, over twice that of the observations.

Speed enforcement in China : national, provincial and city initiatives and their success

China is motorizing rapidly, with associated urban road development and extensive construction of motorways. Speeding accounts for about 10% of fatalities, which represents a large decrease from a peak of 17.2% in 2004. Speeding has been addressed at a national level through the introduction of laws and procedural requirements in 2004, in provinces either across all road types or on motorways, and at city level. Typically, documentation of speed enforcement programmes has taken place when new technology (i.e. speed cameras) is introduced, and it is likely that many programmes have not been documented or widely reported. In particular, the national legislation of 2004 and its implementation was associated with a large reduction in fatalities attributed to speeding. In Guangdong Province, after using speed detection equipment, motorway fatalities due to speeding in 2005 decreased by 32.5% comparing with 2004. In Beijing, the number of traffic monitoring units which were used to photograph illegal traffic activities such as traffic light violations, speeding and using bus lanes illegally increased to 1958 by April 1, 2009, and in the future such automated enforcement will become the main means of enforcement, expected to account for 60% of all traffic enforcement in Beijing. This paper provides a brief overview of the speeding enforcement programmes in China which have been documented and their successes.

Fatalism, superstition, religion, and culture : road user beliefs and behaviour in Pakistan

Road traffic crashes have emerged as a major health problem around the world. Road crash fatalities and injuries have been reduced significantly in developed countries, but they are still an issue in low and middle-income countries. The World Health Organization (WHO, 2009) estimates that the death toll from road crashes in low- and middle-income nations is more than 1 million people per year, or about 90% of the global road toll, even though these countries only account for 48% of the world's vehicles. Furthermore, it is estimated that approximately 265,000 people die every year in road crashes in South Asian countries and Pakistan stands out with 41,494 approximately deaths per year. Pakistan has the highest rate of fatalities per 100,000 population in the region and its road crash fatality rate of 25.3 per 100,000 population is more than three times that of Australia's. High numbers of road crashes not only cause pain and suffering to the population at large, but are also a serious drain on the country's economy, which Pakistan can ill-afford. Most studies identify human factors as the main set of contributing factors to road crashes, well ahead of road environment and vehicle factors. In developing countries especially, attention and resources are required in order to improve things such as vehicle roadworthiness and poor road infrastructure. However, attention to human factors is also critical. Human factors which contribute to crashes include high risk behaviours like speeding and drink driving, and neglect of protective behaviours such as helmet wearing and seat belt wearing. Much research has been devoted to the attitudes, beliefs and perceptions which contribute to these behaviours and omissions, in order to develop interventions aimed at increasing safer road use behaviours and thereby reducing crashes. However, less progress has been made in addressing human factors contributing to crashes in developing countries as compared to the many improvements in road environments and vehicle standards, and this is especially true of fatalistic beliefs and behaviours. This is a significant omission, since in different cultures in developing countries there are strong worldviews in which predestination persists as a central idea, i.e. that one's life (and death) and other events have been mapped out and are predetermined. Fatalism refers to a particular way in which people regard the events that occur in their lives, usually expressed as a belief that an individual does not have personal control over circumstances and that their lives are determined through a divine or powerful external agency (Hazen & Ehiri, 2006). These views are at odds with the dominant themes of modern health promotion movements, and present significant challenges for health advocates who aim to avert road crashes and diminish their consequences. The limited literature on fatalism reveals that it is not a simple concept, with religion, culture, superstition, experience, education and degree of perceived control of one's life all being implicated in accounts of fatalism. One distinction in the literature that seems promising is the distinction between empirical and theological fatalism, although there are areas of uncertainty about how well-defined the distinction between these types of fatalism is. Research into road safety in Pakistan is scarce, as is the case for other South Asian countries. From the review of the literature conducted, it is clear that the descriptions given of the different belief systems in developing countries including Pakistan are not entirely helpful for health promotion purposes and that further research is warranted on the influence of fatalism, superstition and other related beliefs in road safety. Based on the information available, a conceptual framework is developed as a means of structuring and focusing the research and analysis. The framework is focused on the influence of fatalism, superstition, religion and culture on beliefs about crashes and road user behaviour. Accordingly, this research aims to provide an understanding of the operation of fatalism and related beliefs in Pakistan to assist in the development and implementation of effective and culturally appropriate interventions. The research examines the influence of fatalism, superstition, religious and cultural beliefs on risky road use in Pakistan and is guided by three research questions: 1. What are the perceptions of road crash causation in Pakistan, in particular the role of fatalism, superstition, religious and cultural beliefs? 2. How does fatalism, superstition, and religious and cultural beliefs influence road user behaviour in Pakistan? 3. Do fatalism, superstition, and religious and cultural beliefs work as obstacles to road safety interventions in Pakistan? To address these questions, a qualitative research methodology was developed. The research focused on gathering data through individual in-depth interviewing using a semi-structured interview format. A sample of 30 participants was interviewed in Pakistan in the cities of Lahore, Rawalpindi and Islamabad. The participants included policy makers (with responsibility for traffic law), experienced police officers, religious orators, professional drivers (truck, bus and taxi) and general drivers selected through a combination of purposive, criterion and snowball sampling. The transcripts were translated from Urdu and analysed using a thematic analysis approach guided by the conceptual framework. The findings were divided into four areas: attribution of crash causation to fatalism; attribution of road crashes to beliefs about superstition and malicious acts; beliefs about road crash causation linked to popular concepts of religion; and implications for behaviour, safety and enforcement. Fatalism was almost universally evident, and expressed in a number of ways. Fate was used to rationalise fatal crashes using the argument that the people killed were destined to die that day, one way or another. Related to this was the sense of either not being fully in control of the vehicle, or not needing to take safety precautions, because crashes were predestined anyway. A variety of superstitious-based crash attributions and coping methods to deal with road crashes were also found, such as belief in the role of the evil eye in contributing to road crashes and the use of black magic by rivals or enemies as a crash cause. There were also beliefs related to popular conceptions of religion, such as the role of crashes as a test of life or a source of martyrdom. However, superstitions did not appear to be an alternative to religious beliefs. Fate appeared as the 'default attribution' for a crash when all other explanations failed to account for the incident. This pervasive belief was utilised to justify risky road use behaviour and to resist messages about preventive measures. There was a strong religious underpinning to the statement of fatalistic beliefs (this reflects popular conceptions of Islam rather than scholarly interpretations), but also an overlap with superstitious and other culturally and religious-based beliefs which have longer-standing roots in Pakistani culture. A particular issue which is explored in more detail is the way in which these beliefs and their interpretation within Pakistani society contributed to poor police reporting of crashes. The pervasive nature of fatalistic beliefs in Pakistan affects road user behaviour by supporting continued risk taking behaviour on the road, and by interfering with public health messages about behaviours which would reduce the risk of traffic crashes. The widespread influence of these beliefs on the ways that people respond to traffic crashes and the death of family members contribute to low crash reporting rates and to a system which appears difficult to change. Fate also appeared to be a major contributing factor to non-reporting of road crashes. There also appeared to be a relationship between police enforcement and (lack of) awareness of road rules. It also appears likely that beliefs can influence police work, especially in the case of road crash investigation and the development of strategies. It is anticipated that the findings could be used as a blueprint for the design of interventions aimed at influencing broad-spectrum health attitudes and practices among the communities where fatalism is prevalent. The findings have also identified aspects of beliefs that have complex social implications when designing and piloting driver intervention strategies. By understanding attitudes and behaviours related to fatalism, superstition and other related concepts, it should be possible to improve the education of general road users, such that they are less likely to attribute road crashes to chance, fate, or superstition. This study also underscores the understanding of this issue in high echelons of society (e.g., policy makers, senior police officers) as their role is vital in dispelling road users' misconceptions about the risks of road crashes. The promotion of an evidence or scientifically-based approach to road user behaviour and road safety is recommended, along with improved professional education for police and policy makers.