Estimating the effects of ambient temperature on mortality : methodological challenges and proposed solutions

The health impacts of exposure to ambient temperature have been drawing increasing attention from the environmental health research community, government, society, industries, and the public. Case-crossover and time series models are most commonly used to examine the effects of ambient temperature on mortality. However, some key methodological issues remain to be addressed. For example, few studies have used spatiotemporal models to assess the effects of spatial temperatures on mortality. Few studies have used a case-crossover design to examine the delayed (distributed lag) and non-linear relationship between temperature and mortality. Also, little evidence is available on the effects of temperature changes on mortality, and on differences in heat-related mortality over time. This thesis aimed to address the following research questions: 1. How to combine case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear models? 2. Is there any significant difference in effect estimates between time series and spatiotemporal models? 3. How to assess the effects of temperature changes between neighbouring days on mortality? 4. Is there any change in temperature effects on mortality over time? To combine the case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear model, datasets including deaths, and weather conditions (minimum temperature, mean temperature, maximum temperature, and relative humidity), and air pollution were acquired from Tianjin China, for the years 2005 to 2007. I demonstrated how to combine the case-crossover design with a distributed lag non-linear model. This allows the case-crossover design to estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature whilst controlling for seasonality. There was consistent U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality. Cold effects were delayed by 3 days, and persisted for 10 days. Hot effects were acute and lasted for three days, and were followed by mortality displacement for non-accidental, cardiopulmonary, and cardiovascular deaths. Mean temperature was a better predictor of mortality (based on model fit) than maximum or minimum temperature. It is still unclear whether spatiotemporal models using spatial temperature exposure produce better estimates of mortality risk compared with time series models that use a single site’s temperature or averaged temperature from a network of sites. Daily mortality data were obtained from 163 locations across Brisbane city, Australia from 2000 to 2004. Ordinary kriging was used to interpolate spatial temperatures across the city based on 19 monitoring sites. A spatiotemporal model was used to examine the impact of spatial temperature on mortality. A time series model was used to assess the effects of single site’s temperature, and averaged temperature from 3 monitoring sites on mortality. Squared Pearson scaled residuals were used to check the model fit. The results of this study show that even though spatiotemporal models gave a better model fit than time series models, spatiotemporal and time series models gave similar effect estimates. Time series analyses using temperature recorded from a single monitoring site or average temperature of multiple sites were equally good at estimating the association between temperature and mortality as compared with a spatiotemporal model. A time series Poisson regression model was used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987–2000. Temperature change was calculated by the current day's mean temperature minus the previous day's mean. In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3 �C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.16 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02, 1.31) for non-external mortality (NEM), 1.19 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.41) for NEM in females, and 1.44 (95% CI: 1.10, 1.89) for NEM aged 65.74 years. An increase of more than 3 �C was associated with RRs of 1.35 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.77) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.67 (95% CI: 1.15, 2.43) for people aged < 65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3 �C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.13 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.22) for total NEM, 1.25 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.39) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.25 (95% CI: 1.14, 1.39) for people aged . 75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM. A change in temperature of more than 3 �C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for mean temperature. I examined the variation in the effects of high temperatures on elderly mortality (age . 75 years) by year, city and region for 83 large US cities between 1987 and 2000. High temperature days were defined as two or more consecutive days with temperatures above the 90th percentile for each city during each warm season (May 1 to September 30). The mortality risk for high temperatures was decomposed into: a "main effect" due to high temperatures using a distributed lag non-linear function, and an "added effect" due to consecutive high temperature days. I pooled yearly effects across regions and overall effects at both regional and national levels. The effects of high temperature (both main and added effects) on elderly mortality varied greatly by year, city and region. The years with higher heat-related mortality were often followed by those with relatively lower mortality. Understanding this variability in the effects of high temperatures is important for the development of heat-warning systems. In conclusion, this thesis makes contribution in several aspects. Case-crossover design was combined with distribute lag non-linear model to assess the effects of temperature on mortality in Tianjin. This makes the case-crossover design flexibly estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature. Both extreme cold and high temperatures increased the risk of mortality in Tianjin. Time series model using single site’s temperature or averaged temperature from some sites can be used to examine the effects of temperature on mortality. Temperature change (no matter significant temperature drop or great temperature increase) increases the risk of mortality. The high temperature effect on mortality is highly variable from year to year.

Theoretical study of two states reactivity of methane activation on iron atom and iron dimer

Density functional theory (DFT) calculations have been carried out to explore the catalytic activation of C–H bonds in methane by the iron atom, Fe, and the iron dimer, Fe2. For methane activation on an Fe atom, the calculations suggest that the activation of the first C–H bond is mediated via the triplet excited-state potential energy surface (PES), with initial excitation of Fe to the triplet state being necessary for the reaction to be energetically feasible. Compared with the breaking of the first C–H bond, the cleavage of the second C–H bond is predicted to involve a significantly higher barrier, which could explain experimental observations of the HFeCH3 complex rather than CH2FeH2 in the activation of methane by an Fe atom. For methane activation on an iron dimer, the cleavage of the first C–H bond is quite facile with a barrier only 11.2, 15.8 and 8.4 kcal/mol on the septet state energy surface at the B3LYP/6-311+G(2df,2dp), BPW91/6-311+G(2df,2dp) and M06/B3LYP level, respectively. Cleavage of the second C–H bond from HFe2CH3 involves a barrier calculated respectively as 18.0, 10.7 and 12.4 kcal/mol at the three levels. The results suggest that the elimination of hydrogen from the dihydrogen complex is a rate-determining step. Overall, our results indicate that the iron dimer Fe2 has a stronger catalytic effect on the activation of methane than the iron atom.

Adatom CCV Auger rates via the local density of states

In this letter the core-core-valence Auger transitions of an atomic impurity, both in bulk or adsorbed on a jellium-like surface, are computed within a DFT framework. The Auger rates calculated by the Fermi golden rule are compared with those determined by an approximate and simpler expression. This is based on the local density of states (LDOS) with a core hole present, in a region around the impurity nucleus. Different atoms, Na and Mg, solids, Al and Ag, and several impurity locations are considered. We obtain an excellent agreement between KL1V and KL23V rates worked out with the two approaches. The radius of the sphere in which we calculate the LDOS is the relevant parameter of the simpler approach. Its value only depends on the atomic species regardless of the location of the impurity and the type of substrate. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An approach for identifying the limit states of resilience of a water supply system

This paper presents an approach for identifying the limit states of resilience in a water supply system when influenced by different types of pressure (disturbing) forces. Understanding of systemic resilience facilitates identification of the trigger points for early managerial action to avoid further loss of ability to provide satisfactory service availability when the ability to supply water is under pressure. The approach proposed here is to illustrate the usefulness of a surrogate measure of resilience depicted in a three dimensional space encompassing independent pressure factors. That enables visualisation of the transition of the system-state (resilience) between high to low resilience regions and acts as an early warning trigger for decision-making. The necessity of a surrogate measure arises as a means of linking resilience to the identified pressures as resilience cannot be measured directly. The basis for identifying the resilience surrogate and exploring the interconnected relationships within the complete system, is derived from a meta-system model consisting of three nested sub-systems representing the water catchment and reservoir; treatment plant; and the distribution system and end-users. This approach can be used as a framework for assessing levels of resilience in different infrastructure systems by identifying a surrogate measure and its relationship to relevant pressures acting on the system.

Environmental constitutional reform in the developing world : shifting the perspective of international law?

In recent years a growing number of states have chosen to recognise environmental issues in their national constitutions. Some have added declarations about the value of the environment, some have sought to restrict or regulate government’s ability to take action which would potentially harm the environment, while others have proclaimed that citizens possess a right to an environment of a particular quality. A survey of these constitutional provisions reveals that the majority of reform in this area has come from developing states, including a number of states which have been designated as among the least developed countries in the world. The increasing focus on constitutional environmental rights appears to represent a shift in the attitude of developing and emerging economies, which could in turn be influential in setting the tone of the environmental rights debate more broadly, with potential to shape the future development of international law in the area. This chapter examines constitutional environmental rights in an attempt to determine whether consistent state practice can in fact be identified in this area which might form the basis of an emerging norm. It will also analyse some of the potential contributing factors to the proliferation of a constitutional right to a good environment among developing states, and the implications for the development of customary international law.

Ultimate flexural limit states analysis of prestressed concrete sleeper

Railway is one of the most important, reliable and widely used means of transportation, carrying freight, passengers, minerals, grains, etc. Thus, research on railway tracks is extremely important for the development of railway engineering and technologies. The safe operation of a railway track is based on the railway track structure that includes rails, fasteners, pads, sleepers, ballast, subballast and formation. Sleepers are very important components of the entire structure and may be made of timber, concrete, steel or synthetic materials. Concrete sleepers were first installed around the middle of last century and currently are installed in great numbers around the world. Consequently, the design of concrete sleepers has a direct impact on the safe operation of railways. The "permissible stress" method is currently most commonly used to design sleepers. However, the permissible stress principle does not consider the ultimate strength of materials, probabilities of actual loads, and the risks associated with failure, all of which could lead to the conclusion of cost-ineffectiveness and over design of current prestressed concrete sleepers. Recently the limit states design method, which appeared in the last century and has been already applied in the design of buildings, bridges, etc, is proposed as a better method for the design of prestressed concrete sleepers. The limit states design has significant advantages compared to the permissible stress design, such as the utilisation of the full strength of the member, and a rational analysis of the probabilities related to sleeper strength and applied loads. This research aims to apply the ultimate limit states design to the prestressed concrete sleeper, namely to obtain the load factors of both static and dynamic loads for the ultimate limit states design equations. However, the sleepers in rail tracks require different safety levels for different types of tracks, which mean the different types of tracks have different load factors of limit states design equations. Therefore, the core tasks of this research are to find the load factors of the static component and dynamic component of loads on track and the strength reduction factor of the sleeper bending strength for the ultimate limit states design equations for four main types of tracks, i.e., heavy haul, freight, medium speed passenger and high speed passenger tracks. To find those factors, the multiple samples of static loads, dynamic loads and their distributions are needed. In the four types of tracks, the heavy haul track has the measured data from Braeside Line (A heavy haul line in Central Queensland), and the distributions of both static and dynamic loads can be found from these data. The other three types of tracks have no measured data from sites and the experimental data are hardly available. In order to generate the data samples and obtain their distributions, the computer based simulations were employed and assumed the wheel-track impacts as induced by different sizes of wheel flats. A valid simulation package named DTrack was firstly employed to generate the dynamic loads for the freight and medium speed passenger tracks. However, DTrack is only valid for the tracks which carry low or medium speed vehicles. Therefore, a 3-D finite element (FE) model was then established for the wheel-track impact analysis of the high speed track. This FE model has been validated by comparing its simulation results with the DTrack simulation results, and with the results from traditional theoretical calculations based on the case of heavy haul track. Furthermore, the dynamic load data of the high speed track were obtained from the FE model and the distributions of both static and dynamic loads were extracted accordingly. All derived distributions of loads were fitted by appropriate functions. Through extrapolating those distributions, the important parameters of distributions for the static load induced sleeper bending moment and the extreme wheel-rail impact force induced sleeper dynamic bending moments and finally, the load factors, were obtained. Eventually, the load factors were obtained by the limit states design calibration based on reliability analyses with the derived distributions. After that, a sensitivity analysis was performed and the reliability of the achieved limit states design equations was confirmed. It has been found that the limit states design can be effectively applied to railway concrete sleepers. This research significantly contributes to railway engineering and the track safety area. It helps to decrease the failure and risks of track structure and accidents; better determines the load range for existing sleepers in track; better rates the strength of concrete sleepers to support bigger impact and loads on railway track; increases the reliability of the concrete sleepers and hugely saves investments on railway industries. Based on this research, many other bodies of research can be promoted in the future. Firstly, it has been found that the 3-D FE model is suitable for the study of track loadings and track structure vibrations. Secondly, the equations for serviceability and damageability limit states can be developed based on the concepts of limit states design equations of concrete sleepers obtained in this research, which are for the ultimate limit states.

Conceptual and thematic analysis of policies and guidelines on engineering asset management of different states in Australia

The role of government in developing policies and guidelines for asset management is becoming increasingly important especially in view of ageing infrastructure and increasing financial risks for building infrastructure. This paper reviews policies and guidelines developed by Australian state authorities against industry developed principles. It utilizes the software program Leximancer to; a) produce conceptual visualisations of the key themes and concepts embedded within state-wide policies and guidelines, and b) systematically compare the differing asset management foci between states. The analyses reveal mixed results in terms of policy priorities and guidelines for managing assets at a strategic level across states. This paper outlines a rigorous analytical methodology to inform specific policy changes.

Generation of active surface states of gold and the role of such states in electrocatalysis

The cyclic voltammetry behaviour of gold in aqueous media is often regarded in very simple terms as a combination of two distinct processes, double layer charging/discharging and monolayer oxide formation/removal. This view is questioned here on the basis of both the present results and earlier independent data by other authors. It was demonstrated in the present case that both severe cathodization or thermal pretreatment of polycrystalline gold in acid solution resulted in the appearance of substantial Faradaic responses in the double layer region. Such anamolous behaviour, as outlined recently also for other metals, is rationalized in terms of the presence of active metal atoms (which undergo premonolayer oxidation) at the electrode surface. Such behaviour, which is also assumed to correspond to that of active sites on conventional gold surfaces, is assumed to be of vital importance in electrocatalysis; in many instances the latter process is also quite marked in the double layer region.

High energy states of gold and their importance in electrocatalytic processes at surfaces and interfaces

The ability of metals to store or trap considerable amounts of energy, and thus exist in a non-equilibrium or metastable state, is very well known in metallurgy; however, such behaviour, which is intimately connected with the defect character of metals, has been largely ignored in noble metal surface electrochemistry. Techniques for generating unusually high energy surface states for gold, and the unusual voltammetric responses of such states, are outlined. The surprisingly high (and complex) electrocatalytic activity of gold in aqueous media is attributed to the presence of a range of such non-equilibrium states as the vital entities at active sites on conventional gold surfaces. The possible relevance of these ideas to account for the remarkable catalytic activity of oxide-supported gold microparticles is briefly outlined.

The role of defects, or active states, in surface electrochemistry with particular reference to gold in neutral solution

Metastable, active, or nonequilibrium states due to the presence of abnormal structures and various types of defects are well known in metallurgy. The role of such states at gold surfaces in neutral aqueous media (an important electrode system in the microsensor area) was explored using cyclic voltammetry. It was demonstrated that, as postulated in earlier work from this laboratory, there is a close relationship between premonolayer oxidation, multilayer hydrous oxide reduction and electrocatalytic behaviour in the case of this and other metal electrode systems. Some of the most active, and therefore most important, entities at surfaces (e.g., metal adatoms) are not readily imageable or detectable by high resolution surface microscopy techniques. Cyclic voltammetry, however, provides significant, though not highly specific, information about such species. The main conclusion is that further practical and theoretical work on active states of metal surfaces is highly desirable as their behaviour is not simple and is of major importance in many electrocatalytic processes.

Managing growth in the sunshine states : urbanization and planning in Queensland and Florida

This paper compares the urbanization and planning in the two sunshine states of Florida and Queensland highlighting the similarities and differences, evaluates how effective the growth management programs have been, and examines the recent changes and the challenges they bring to the respective states.

A higher education quality assurance model for small states : the Maldives case study

Increasing globalisation and local expansion of Higher Education presents challenges to manage quality of the education services. This study investigated key stakeholders' perspectives on what constitutes key elements and attributes of an effective Quality Assurance (QA) system in Higher Education. The findings highlighted the need for: i) legislation to support a strong QA regulatory framework, ii) independence of the QA agency, iii) development of minimum quality standards through broad stakeholder involvement, and iv) a cyclical approach. The findings of this study proposed a QA model which has implications for strengthening of HE QA systems of Small State.

The role of sleepiness, sleep disorders, and the work environment on heavy-vehicle crashes in 2 Australian states

Heavy-vehicle driving involves a challenging work environment and a high crash rate. We investigated the associations of sleepiness, sleep disorders, and work environment (including truck characteristics) with the risk of crashing between 2008 and 2011 in the Australian states of New South Wales and Western Australia. We conducted a case-control study of 530 heavy-vehicle drivers who had recently crashed and 517 heavy-vehicle drivers who had not. Drivers' crash histories, truck details, driving schedules, payment rates, sleep patterns, and measures of health were collected. Subjects wore a nasal flow monitor for 1 night to assess for obstructive sleep apnea. Driving schedules that included the period between midnight and 5:59 am were associated with increased likelihood of crashing (odds ratio = 3.42, 95% confidence interval: 2.04, 5.74), as were having an empty load (odds ratio = 2.61, 95% confidence interval: 1.72, 3.97) and being a less experienced driver (odds ratio = 3.25, 95% confidence interval: 2.37, 4.46). Not taking regular breaks and the lack of vehicle safety devices were also associated with increased crash risk. Despite the high prevalence of obstructive sleep apnea, it was not associated with the risk of a heavy-vehicle nonfatal, nonsevere crash. Scheduling of driving to avoid midnight-to-dawn driving and the use of more frequent rest breaks are likely to reduce the risk of heavy-vehicle nonfatal, nonsevere crashes by 2–3 times.

Twitter and society : an introduction

Since its launch in 2006, Twitter has turned from a niche service to a mass phenomenon. By the beginning of 2013, the platform claims to have more than 200 million active users, who “post over 400 million tweets per day” (Twitter, 2013). Its success is spreading globally; Twitter is now available in 33 different languages, and has significantly increased its support for languages that use non-Latin character sets. While Twitter, Inc. has occasionally changed the appearance of the service and added new features—often in reaction to users’ developing their own conventions, such as adding ‘#’ in front of important keywords to tag them—the basic idea behind the service has stayed the same: users may post short messages (tweets) of up to 140 characters and follow the updates posted by other users. This leads to the formation of complex follower networks with unidirectional as well as bidirectional connections between individuals, but also between media outlets, NGOs, and other organisations. While originally ‘microblogs’ were perceived as a new genre of online communication, of which Twitter was just one exemplar, the platform has become synonymous with microblogging in most countries. A notable exception is Sina Weibo, popular in China where Twitter is not available. Other similar platforms have been shut down (e.g., Jaiku), or are being used in slightly different ways (e.g., Tumblr), thus making Twitter a unique service within the social media landscape.