A method for systematically pooling data in very early stage construction price forecasting

Client owners usually need an estimate or forecast of their likely building costs in advance of detailed design in order to confirm the financial feasibility of their projects. Because of their timing in the project life cycle, these early stage forecasts are characterized by the minimal amount of information available concerning the new (target) project to the point that often only its size and type are known. One approach is to use the mean contract sum of a sample, or base group, of previous projects of a similar type and size to the project for which the estimate is needed. Bernoulli’s law of large numbers implies that this base group should be as large as possible. However, increasing the size of the base group inevitably involves including projects that are less and less similar to the target project. Deciding on the optimal number of base group projects is known as the homogeneity or pooling problem. A method of solving the homogeneity problem is described involving the use of closed form equations to compare three different sampling arrangements of previous projects for their simulated forecasting ability by a cross-validation method, where a series of targets are extracted, with replacement, from the groups and compared with the mean value of the projects in the base groups. The procedure is then demonstrated with 450 Hong Kong projects (with different project types: Residential, Commercial centre, Car parking, Social community centre, School, Office, Hotel, Industrial, University and Hospital) clustered into base groups according to their type and size.

Exploring the information practices of people with end stage kidney disease

This small exploratory study sought to understand how people with End Stage Kidney Disease (ESKD) experience the information environment and what information practices they employ in order to inform the decisions they make in relation to treatment and care. Using a constructivist methodology, in-depth interviews were conducted with five people who were receiving haemodialysis in two small satellite dialysis units located in regional and rural communities in New South Wales, Australia. Thematic analysis revealed two types of patients. The first type appears to adopt a received view of information, who do not question their condition; and passively accept information. In the other type, patients were found to be engaged; they actively identified their information needs and quickly learned what that they needed to ask and who to ask. Knowing the information practices of people with ESKD is useful for nephrology nurses when providing patient education.

Examining the health related quality of life of people with end stage kidney disease living in Hanoi, Vietnam

Background: The prevalence of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) patients is increasing in Vietnam; however, the impact of ESKD and its treatment on a person’s quality of life (QOL) is not well understood. Objective: This research sought to examine the association between monthly income, comorbidity, length of time on dialysis, social support and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) among Vietnamese ESKD patients. Method: Using a descriptive design, 95 patients who were receiving haemodialysis (HD) and peritoneal dialysis (PD) from one hospital in Hanoi, were conveniently sampled. Results: ESKD patients reported having a moderate level of HRQOL. Factors associated with QOL were social support (r= .268, p<.05), comorbid health conditions (r= –.185, p<.05), and length of time on dialysis (r= .182, p<.05). However, monthly income was not significantly related to HRQOL (p>.05). Conclusion: The results seem to indicate that ESKD patients in Vietnam have a high level of support from family members, friends and significant others. There was also a negative impact of comorbid conditions on the QOL of these patients. Based on the results of this study, nurses ought to develop nursing interventions which will lead to a better QOL for patients, and further research into the QOL for ESKD patients in Vietnam is warranted.

An analytical method for assessing stage-specific drug activity in Plasmodium vivax malaria : implications for ex vivo drug susceptibility testing

The emergence of highly chloroquine (CQ) resistant P. vivax in Southeast Asia has created an urgent need for an improved understanding of the mechanisms of drug resistance in these parasites, the development of robust tools for defining the spread of resistance, and the discovery of new antimalarial agents. The ex vivo Schizont Maturation Test (SMT), originally developed for the study of P. falciparum, has been modified for P. vivax. We retrospectively analysed the results from 760 parasite isolates assessed by the modified SMT to investigate the relationship between parasite growth dynamics and parasite susceptibility to antimalarial drugs. Previous observations of the stage-specific activity of CQ against P. vivax were confirmed, and shown to have profound consequences for interpretation of the assay. Using a nonlinear model we show increased duration of the assay and a higher proportion of ring stages in the initial blood sample were associated with decreased effective concentration (EC50) values of CQ, and identify a threshold where these associations no longer hold. Thus, starting composition of parasites in the SMT and duration of the assay can have a profound effect on the calculated EC50 for CQ. Our findings indicate that EC50 values from assays with a duration less than 34 hours do not truly reflect the sensitivity of the parasite to CQ, nor an assay where the proportion of ring stage parasites at the start of the assay does not exceed 66%. Application of this threshold modelling approach suggests that similar issues may occur for susceptibility testing of amodiaquine and mefloquine. The statistical methodology which has been developed also provides a novel means of detecting stage-specific drug activity for new antimalarials.

Stage brothers slow to resurrect a Ned Kelly myth

JUST like the man, Ned Kelly dramas have had a chequered history. A century ago they were banned from the stage and screen. Following censorship law changes, Douglas Stewart's 4 1/2-hour long 1942 radio play was a hit on the airwaves but a flop onstage. Stewart's Ned was a menacing hero/villain. Little has been seen of Ned in mainstage plays since. Matthew Ryan's Kelly breaks the drought.

A multi-stage history for carbonaceous material in extraterrestrial chondritic porous aggregate W7029*A and a new cosmothermometer

A new set of primitive extraterrestrial materials collected in the Earth's stratosphere include Chondritic Porous Aggregates (CPA's) [1]. CPAs have a complex and variable mineralogy [1-3] that include 'organic compounds' [4,5] and poorly graphitised carbon (PGC)[6]. This study presents a continuation of our detailed Analytical Electron Microscope study on carbon-rich CPA W7029*A from the JSC Cosmic Dust Collection. This CPA is an uncontaminated sample that survived atmospheric entry without appreciable alteration [7] and which contains ~44% carbonaceous material. The carbonaceous composition of selected particles was confirmed by Electron Energy Loss Spectroscopy and Selected Area Electron Diffraction (SAED). Possible carbonaceous contaminants introduced by specimen preparation techniques are easily recognised from indigenous CPA carbon particles [8] and do not bias our interpretations.

Evidence supporting exercise interventions for persons in early-stage Alzheimer’s disease

The purpose of this article is to grade research evidence supporting exercise-based interventions for persons with early-stage dementias and to report the recommendations of a consensus panel. The search produced 11 data based articles testing the effects of exercise interventions on a variety of outcomes. The body of evidence to support exercise interventions in the prevention and treatment of Alzheimer’s disease is growing and has potential as a treatment modality following translational studies in recreation therapy and other fields.

Logan Basin Water Resource Plan : environmental assessment of the southern Moreton Bay islands. Technical Advisory Panel Report: Stage 1.

This report is a technical assessment of the hydrological environment of the southern Moreton Bay islands and follows the terms of reference supplied by the then Queensland Department of Natural Resources and Water. The terms of reference describe stage 1 as a condition assessment and stage 2 as an assessment of the implications of water planning scenarios on future condition. This report is the first stage of a two-stage investigation whose primary purpose is to identify and assess groundwater dependent ecosystems (GDEs) and the groundwater flow regimes necessary to support them. Within this context, the groundwaters themselves are also considered and comment made on their condition. Information provided in this report will inform an amendment to the Logan Basin Water Resource Plan to incorporate the southern Moreton Bay islands. The study area is the water resource plan amendment area, which includes North and South Stradbroke islands and the smaller islands between these and the mainland, including the inhabited smaller rocky islands—namely, Macleay, Russell, Karragarra, Lamb and Coochiemudlo islands. This assessment is largely a desktop study based on existing information, but incorporates some field observations, input from experts in specific areas and community representatives, and the professional experience and knowledge of the authors. This report reviews existing research and information on the southern Moreton Bay area with an emphasis on North Stradbroke Island, as it represents the largest and most regionally significant groundwater resource in southern Moreton Bay. The report provides an assessment of key waterrelated environmental features, their condition and their degree of dependence on groundwater. This report also assesses the condition and status of ecosystems within this region. In addition, the report identifies information gaps, uncertainties and potential impacts; reviews groundwater models that have been developed for North Stradbroke Island; and makes recommendations on monitoring and research needs.

Early stage start-ups : evidence from the Comprehensive Australian Study of Entrepreneurial Emergence (CAUSEE)

In this chapter, the picture of Australian small business is supplemented by using data from the Comprehensive Australian Study of Entrepreneurial Emergence (CAUSEE) . This data tracks large numbers of on-going business start-ups over time. The Australian Centre of Entrepreneurship Research at Queensland University of Technology collected data in four annual waves. (Wave 1 to Wave 4) from 2007 to 2011. CAUSEE allows the analysis of entrepreneurial entrants at two stages of development, i.e. nascent and young firms. Nascent firms are defined as firms in the process of being created, but not yet established in the market, and young firms are defined as having been operational for up to four years. An analysis of nascent firms provides unique insights, as no other known Australian database captures and follows the development of business start-ups at the pre-operational stage. In addition, the project captured judgment over samples of high-potential start-ups.

A two-stage approach for generating topic models

Topic modeling has been widely utilized in the fields of information retrieval, text mining, text classification etc. Most existing statistical topic modeling methods such as LDA and pLSA generate a term based representation to represent a topic by selecting single words from multinomial word distribution over this topic. There are two main shortcomings: firstly, popular or common words occur very often across different topics that bring ambiguity to understand topics; secondly, single words lack coherent semantic meaning to accurately represent topics. In order to overcome these problems, in this paper, we propose a two-stage model that combines text mining and pattern mining with statistical modeling to generate more discriminative and semantic rich topic representations. Experiments show that the optimized topic representations generated by the proposed methods outperform the typical statistical topic modeling method LDA in terms of accuracy and certainty.

Stage-specific embryonic antigen-4 is not a marker for chondrogenic and osteogenic potential in cultured chondrocytes and mesenchymal progenitor cells

One important challenge for regenerative medicine is to produce a clinically relevant number of cells with consistent tissue-forming potential. Isolation and expansion of cells from skeletal tissues results in a heterogeneous population of cells with variable regenerative potential. A more consistent tissue formation could be achieved by identification and selection of potent progenitors based on cell surface molecules. In this study, we assessed the expression of stage-specific embryonic antigen-4 (SSEA-4), a classic marker of undifferentiated stem cells, and other surface markers in human articular chondrocytes (hACs), osteoblasts, and bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stromal cells (bmMSCs) and characterized their differentiation potential. Further, we sorted SSEA-4-expressing hACs and followed their potential to proliferate and to form cartilage in vitro. Cells isolated from cartilage and bone exhibited remarkably heterogeneous SSEA-4 expression profiles in expansion cultures. SSEA-4 expression levels increased up to approximately 5 population doublings, but decreased following further expansion and differentiation cultures; levels were not related to the proliferation state of the cells. Although SSEA-4-sorted chondrocytes showed a slightly better chondrogenic potential than their SSEA-4-negative counterparts, differences were insufficient to establish a link between SSEA-4 expression and chondrogenic potential. SSEA-4 levels in bmMSCs also did not correlate to the cells' chondrogenic and osteogenic potential in vitro. SSEA-4 is clearly expressed by subpopulations of proliferating somatic cells with a MSC-like phenotype. However, the predictive value of SSEA-4 as a specific marker of superior differentiation capacity in progenitor cell populations from adult human tissue and even its usefulness as a stem cell marker appears questionable.

Influence of drying conditions on the moisture diffusion during single stage and two stage fluidized bed drying of bovine intestine for pet food

Bovine intestine samples were heat pump fluidized bed dried at atmospheric pressure and at temperatures below and above the material freezing points equipped with a continuous monitoring system. The investigation of the drying characteristics has been conducted in the temperature range -10~25oC and the airflow in the range 1.5~2.5 m/s. Some experiments were conducted as a single temperature drying experiments and others as two stage drying experiments employing two temperatures. An Arrhenius-type equation was used to interpret the influence of the drying air parameters on the effective diffusivity, calculated with the method of slopes in terms of energy activation, and this was found to be sensitivity of the temperature. The effective diffusion coefficient of moisture transfer was determined by Fickian method using uni-dimensional moisture movement in both moisture, removal by evaporation and combined sublimation and evaporation. Correlations expressing the effective moisture diffusivity and drying temperature are reported.

Differences in Epidural and Analgesic Use in Patients with Apparent Stage I Endometrial Cancer treated by open versus laparoscopic surgery: results from the randomised LACE trial

Objectives: We compared post-operative analgesic requirements between women with early stage endometrial cancer treated by total abdominal hysterectomy (TAH) or total laparoscopic hysterectomy (TLH). Methods: 760 patients with apparent stage I endometrial cancer were treated in the international, multicentre, prospective randomised trial (LACE) by TAH (n=353) or TLH (n=407) (2005-2010). Epidural, opioid and non-opioid analgesic requirements were collected until ten months after surgery. Results: Baseline demographics and analgesic use were comparable between treatment arms. TAH patients were more likely to receive epidural analgesia than TLH patients (33% vs 0.5%, p<0.001) during the early postoperative phase. Although opioid use was comparable in the TAH vs TLH groups during postoperative 0-2 days (99.7% vs 98.5%, p 0.09), a significantly higher proportion of TAH patients required opioids 3-5 days (70% vs 22%, p<0.0001), 6-14 days (35% vs 15%, p<0.0001), and 15-60 days (15% vs 9%, p 0.02) post-surgery. Mean pain scores were significantly higher in the TAH versus TLH group one (2.48 vs 1.62, p<0.0001) and four weeks (0.89 vs 0.63, p 0.01) following surgery. Conclusion: Treatment of early stage endometrial cancer with TLH is associated with less frequent use of epidural, lower post-operative opioid requirements and better pain scores than TAH.