Consumers' accounts of perceived risk online and the influence of communication sources

The purpose of this paper is to extend marketing knowledge into perceived risk in online transactions beyond the current positivistic, hypotheses-driven research by providing qualitative insights into how individuals construct their accounts of perceived risk online. Additionally, the study reported in this paper aims to explore how communication sources influence both these subjective constructions and individuals' behavioural experiences with transaction activity on the web. Design/methodology/approach - The study was developed within a grounded theory method.Ten in-depth interviews were conducted which were analysed using constant comparison of incidents procedures to provide rich descriptions of the interviewees' subjective perceptions and lived experiences with online transaction activity. Findings - The findings provide insights into how the human clement is present in individuals'perceptions and constructions of their accounts of the risk involved online.The findings also identify the influence of mass communication sources on the construction of these accounts. The study provides insights into whether change agent communication sources, such as marketers or web designers,influence consumers' behaviours towards online transaction activity through mediating their perceptions of the risks involved. The study also reveals how social communication networks influence the interviewees' decisions to use the web (or transaction activities, in particular online purchasing, and how the group in this study might act as a communication source to influence others. Research limitations/Implications - While the findings cannot be generalised to the internet population overall, the sample used was able to provide relevant information regarding the phenomenon of interest. Future research should continue to examine perceived risk and the influence of communications sources, such as e-mail, discussion groups and virtual communities. Originality/value - The value of the paper lies in permitting the participants to account for perceived risk for themselves. The findings ex.plore what this means at increasing levels of personal relevance and the influence of communication sources to create, sustain or mediate perceptions of this phenomenon.

Investment decision-making under risk (reliability) and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

Risks and uncertainties are inevitable in engineering projects and infrastructure investments. Decisions about investment in infrastructure such as for maintenance, rehabilitation and construction works can pose risks, and may generate significant impacts on social, cultural, environmental and other related issues. This report presents the results of a literature review of current practice in identifying, quantifying and managing risks and predicting impacts as part of the planning and assessment process for infrastructure investment proposals. In assessing proposals for investment in infrastructure, it is necessary to consider social, cultural and environmental risks and impacts to the overall community, as well as financial risks to the investor. The report defines and explains the concept of risk and uncertainty, and describes the three main methodology approaches to the analysis of risk and uncertainty in investment planning for infrastructure, viz examining a range of scenarios or options, sensitivity analysis, and a statistical probability approach, listed here in order of increasing merit and complexity. Forecasts of costs, benefits and community impacts of infrastructure are recognised as central aspects of developing and assessing investment proposals. Increasingly complex modelling techniques are being used for investment evaluation. The literature review identified forecasting errors as the major cause of risk. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. For risks that cannot be readily quantified, assessment techniques commonly include classification or rating systems for likelihood and consequence. The report outlines the system used by the Australian Defence Organisation and in the Australian Standard on risk management. After each risk is identified and quantified or rated, consideration can be given to reducing the risk, and managing any remaining risk as part of the scope of the project. The literature review identified use of risk mapping techniques by a North American chemical company and by the Australian Defence Organisation. This literature review has enabled a risk assessment strategy to be developed, and will underpin an examination of the feasibility of developing a risk assessment capability using a probability approach.

Identification of critical input variables for risk-based cost estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation

An estimation of costs for maintenance and rehabilitation is subject to variation due to the uncertainties of input parameters. This paper presents the results of an analysis to identify input parameters that affect the prediction of variation in road deterioration. Road data obtained from 1688 km of a national highway located in the tropical northeast of Queensland in Australia were used in the analysis. Data were analysed using a probability-based method, the Monte Carlo simulation technique and HDM-4’s roughness prediction model. The results of the analysis indicated that among the input parameters the variability of pavement strength, rut depth, annual equivalent axle load and initial roughness affected the variability of the predicted roughness. The second part of the paper presents an analysis to assess the variation in cost estimates due to the variability of the overall identified critical input parameters.

At-risk students and classroom engagement : listening to “voices of possibility and hope"

In my work with secondary school students who have disengaged from mainstream classrooms, I have often been surprised at the ways they enthusiastically engage with the projects on offer. They have demonstrated that, in apparent contradiction of their classroom behaviour, they still maintain hope in achieving a positive outcome from education. In a long-running schools-university project employing a “students-as-researchers” approach to investigating educational disadvantage, “at-risk” students have produced high quality results. Naturally, I wanted to know what it was about this sort of pedagogy that seemed to work for them. In this chapter, then, I outline the project and discuss some reasons for disengagement. I then address the features of the project that the participants themselves have identified as being instrumental in their re-engagement with formal education. Finally, I consider how these features may be transposed to maintaining the educational engagement of at-risk students in mainstream classrooms.

Risk assessment in life-cycle costing for road asset management

Queensland Department of Main Roads, Australia, spends approximately A$ 1 billion annually for road infrastructure asset management. To effectively manage road infrastructure, firstly road agencies not only need to optimise the expenditure for data collection, but at the same time, not jeopardise the reliability in using the optimised data to predict maintenance and rehabilitation costs. Secondly, road agencies need to accurately predict the deterioration rates of infrastructures to reflect local conditions so that the budget estimates could be accurately estimated. And finally, the prediction of budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation must provide a certain degree of reliability. This paper presents the results of case studies in using the probability-based method for an integrated approach (i.e. assessing optimal costs of pavement strength data collection; calibrating deterioration prediction models that suit local condition and assessing risk-adjusted budget estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation for assessing life-cycle budget estimates). The probability concept is opening the path to having the means to predict life-cycle maintenance and rehabilitation budget estimates that have a known probability of success (e.g. produce budget estimates for a project life-cycle cost with 5% probability of exceeding). The paper also presents a conceptual decision-making framework in the form of risk mapping in which the life-cycle budget/cost investment could be considered in conjunction with social, environmental and political issues.

Framework for investment decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

A study has been conducted to investigate current practices on decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure project investments. It was found that many European countries such as the UK, France, Germany including Australia use scenarios for the investigation of the effects of risk and uncertainty of project investments. Different alternative scenarios are mostly considered during the engineering economic cost-benefit analysis stage. For instance, the World Bank requires an analysis of risks in all project appraisals. Risk in economic evaluation needs to be addressed by calculating sensitivity of the rate of return for a number of events. Risks and uncertainties of project developments arise from various sources of errors including data, model and forecasting errors. It was found that the most influential factors affecting risk and uncertainty resulted from forecasting errors. Data errors and model errors have trivial effects. It was argued by many analysts that scenarios do not forecast what will happen but scenarios indicate only what can happen from given alternatives. It was suggested that the probability distributions of end-products of the project appraisal, such as cost-benefit ratios that take forecasting errors into account, are feasible decision tools for economic evaluation. Political, social, environmental as well as economic and other related risk issues have been addressed and included in decision-making frameworks, such as in a multi-criteria decisionmaking framework. But no suggestion has been made on how to incorporate risk into the investment decision-making process.

Comparison of 3D finite element analysis derived stiffness and BMD to determine the failure load of the excised proximal femur

Introduction: Bone mineral density (BMD) is currently the preferred surrogate for bone strength in clinical practice. Finite element analysis (FEA) is a computer simulation technique that can predict the deformation of a structure when a load is applied, providing a measure of stiffness (Nmm−1). Finite element analysis of X-ray images (3D-FEXI) is a FEA technique whose analysis is derived froma single 2D radiographic image. Methods: 18 excised human femora had previously been quantitative computed tomography scanned, from which 2D BMD-equivalent radiographic images were derived, and mechanically tested to failure in a stance-loading configuration. A 3D proximal femur shape was generated from each 2D radiographic image and used to construct 3D-FEA models. Results: The coefficient of determination (R2%) to predict failure load was 54.5% for BMD and 80.4% for 3D-FEXI. Conclusions: This ex vivo study demonstrates that 3D-FEXI derived from a conventional 2D radiographic image has the potential to significantly increase the accuracy of failure load assessment of the proximal femur compared with that currently achieved with BMD. This approach may be readily extended to routine clinical BMD images derived by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry. Crown Copyright © 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of IPEM. All rights reserved

Social change grant-making : a failure of innovation?

Focusing primarily on Anglophone countries, this article begins by looking at the changing environment of foundations, the pressures on foundations and some responses to those pressures. It then focuses on the potential of a structural change approach - often known as 'social change' or 'social justice' grant-making - as a solution to some of the modern dilemmas of foundations, and considers why this approach has, with some exceptions, gained relatively little support. This raises the wider issues of why and how resource-independent, endowed foundations change when conventional explanations of organisational change do not easily apply. Researching a 'lack' is clearly difficult; this article adopts an analytic perspective, examining the characteristics of the structural change approach as a mimetic model, and draws on the work of Rogers (2003) on the characteristics required for the successful diffusion of innovations. It suggests that the structural change approach suffers from some fundamental weaknesses as a mimetic model, failing to meet some key characteristics for the diffusion of innovations. In conclusion, the article looks at conditions under which these weaknesses may be overcome.

The research pathway to developing a health promotion intervention for the high school curriculum

Introduction: Schools provide the opportunity to reach a large number of adolescents in a systematic way however there are increasing demands on curriculum providing challenges for health promotion activities. This paper will describe the research processes and strategies used to design an injury prevention program.----- Methods: A multi-stage process of data collection included: (1) Surveys on injury-risk behaviours to identify targets of change (examining behaviour and risk/ protective factors among more than 4000 adolescents); (2) Focus groups (n= 30 high-risk adolescents) to understand and determine risk situations; (3) Hospital emergency outpatients survey to understand injury types/ situations; (4) Workshop (n= 50 teachers/ administrators) to understand the target curriculum and experiences with injury-risk behaviours; (5) Additional focus groups (students and teachers) regarding draft material and processes.----- Results: Summaries of findings from each stage are presented particularly demonstrating the design process. The baseline data identified target risk and protective factors. The following qualitative study provided detail about content and context and with the hospital findings assisted in developing ways to ensure relevance and meaning (e.g. identifying high risk situations and providing insights into language, culture and development). School staff identified links to school processes with final data providing feedback on curriculum fit, feasibility and appropriateness of resources. The data were integrated into a program which demonstrated reduced injury.----- Conclusions: A comprehensive research process is required to develop an informed and effective intervention. The next stage of a cluster randomised control trial is a major task and justifies the intensive and comprehensive development.

Predicting behaviour to reduce stroke risk in at-risk populations : the role of beliefs

Aims: Changing behaviour to reduce stroke risk is a difficult prospect made particularly complex because of psychological factors. This study examined predictors of intentions and behaviours to reduce stroke risk in a sample of at-risk individuals, seeking to find how knowledge and health beliefs influenced both intention and actual behaviour to reduce stroke risk. Methods: A repeated measures design was used to assess behavioural intentions at time 1 (T1) and subsequent behaviour (T2). One hundred and twenty six respondents completed an online survey at T1, and behavioural follow-up data were collected from approximately 70 participants 1 month later. Predictors were stroke knowledge, demographic variables, and beliefs about stroke that were derived from an expanded health belief model. Dependent measures were: exercise and weight loss, and intention to engage in these behaviours to reduce stroke risk. Findings: Multiple hierarchical regression analyses showed that, for exercise and weight loss respectively, different health beliefs predicted intention to control stroke risk. The most important exercise-related health beliefs were benefits, susceptibility, and self-efficacy; for weight loss, the most important beliefs were barriers, and to a lesser degree, susceptibility and subjective norm. Conclusions: Health beliefs may play an important role in stroke prevention, particularly beliefs about susceptibility because these emerged for both behaviours. Stroke education and prevention programmes that selectively target the health beliefs relevant to specific behaviours may prove most efficacious.

Work engagement and its antecedents in high-risk occupations : a police service case study

Introduction: Work engagement is a recent application of positive psychology and refers to a positive, fulfilling, work-related state of mind characterized by vigor, dedication and absorption. Despite theoretical assumptions, there is little published research on work engagement, due primarily to its recent emergence as a psychological construct. Furthermore, examining work engagement among high-stress occupations, such as police, is useful because police officers are generally characterized as having a high level of work engagement. Previous research has identified job resources (e.g. social support) as antecedents of work engagement. However detailed evaluation of job demands as an antecedent of work engagement within high-stress occupations has been scarce. Thus our second aim was to test job demands (i.e. monitoring demands and problem-solving demands) and job resources (i.e. time control, method control, supervisory support, colleague support, and friend and family support) as antecedents of work engagement among police officers. Method: Data were collected via a self-report online survey from one Australian state police service (n = 1,419). Due to the high number of hypothesized antecedent variables, hierarchical multiple regression analysis was employed rather than structural equation modelling. Results: Work engagement reported by police officers was high. Female officers had significantly higher levels of work engagement than male officers, while officers at mid-level ranks (sergeant) reported the lowest levels of work engagement. Job resources (method control, supervisor support and colleague support) were significant antecedents of three dimensions of work engagement. Only monitoring demands were significant antecedent of the absorption. Conclusion: Having healthy and engaged police officers is important for community security and economic growth. This study identified some common factors which influence work engagement experienced by police officers. However, we also note that excessive work engagement can yield negative outcomes such as psychological distress.

A review on reliability models with covariates

Modern Engineering Asset Management (EAM) requires the accurate assessment of current and the prediction of future asset health condition. Suitable mathematical models that are capable of predicting Time-to-Failure (TTF) and the probability of failure in future time are essential. In traditional reliability models, the lifetime of assets is estimated using failure time data. However, in most real-life situations and industry applications, the lifetime of assets is influenced by different risk factors, which are called covariates. The fundamental notion in reliability theory is the failure time of a system and its covariates. These covariates change stochastically and may influence and/or indicate the failure time. Research shows that many statistical models have been developed to estimate the hazard of assets or individuals with covariates. An extensive amount of literature on hazard models with covariates (also termed covariate models), including theory and practical applications, has emerged. This paper is a state-of-the-art review of the existing literature on these covariate models in both the reliability and biomedical fields. One of the major purposes of this expository paper is to synthesise these models from both industrial reliability and biomedical fields and then contextually group them into non-parametric and semi-parametric models. Comments on their merits and limitations are also presented. Another main purpose of this paper is to comprehensively review and summarise the current research on the development of the covariate models so as to facilitate the application of more covariate modelling techniques into prognostics and asset health management.

Preventing physical activity induced heat illness in school settings

The climatic conditions of tropical and subtropical regions within Australia present, at times, extreme risk of physical activity induced heat illness. Many administrators and teachers in school settings are aware of the general risks of heat related illness. In the absence of reliable information applied at the local level, there is a risk that inappropriate decisions may be made concerning school events that incorporate opportunities to be physically active. Such events may be prematurely cancelled resulting in the loss of necessary time for physical activity. Under high or extremely high risk conditions however, the absence of appropriate modifications or continuation could place the health of students, staff and other parties at risk. School staff and other key stakeholders should understand the mechanisms of escalating risk and be supported to undertake action to reduce the level of risk through appropriate policies, procedures, resources and action plans.