879 resultados para DETERMINISTIC MODEL


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Purpose/Objective: The basis for poor outcomes in some patients post transfusion remains largely unknown. Despite leukodepletion, there is still evidence of immunomodulatory effects of transfusion that require further study. In addition, there is evidence that the age of blood components transfused significantly affects patient outcomes. Myeloid dendritic cell (DC) and monocyte immune function were studied utilising an in vitro whole blood model of transfusion. Materials and methods: Freshly collected (‘recipient’) whole blood was cultured with ABO compatible leukodepleted PRBC at 25% blood replacement-volume (6hrs). PRBC were assayed at [Day (D) 2, 14, 28and 42 (date-of expiry)]. In parallel, LPS or Zymosan (Zy) were added to mimic infection. Recipients were maintained for the duration of the time course (2 recipients, 4 PRBC units, n = 8).Recipient DC and monocyte intracellular cytokines and chemokines (IL-6, IL-10, IL-12,TNF-a, IL-1a, IL-8, IP-10, MIP-1a, MIP-1b, MCP-1) were measured using flow cytometry. Changes in immune response were calculated by comparison to a parallel no transfusion control (Wilcoxin matched pairs). Influence of storage age was calculated using ANOVA. Results: Significant suppression of DC and monocyte inflammatory responses were evident. DC and monocyte production of IL-1a was reduced following exposure to PRBC regardless of storage age (P < 0.05 at all time points). Storage independent PRBC mediated suppression of DC and monocyte IL-1a was also evident in cultures costimulated with Zy. In cultures co-stimulated with either LPS or Zy, significant suppression of DC and monocyte TNF-a and IL-6 was also evident. PRBC storage attenuated monocyte TNF-a production when co-cultured with LPS (P < 0.01 ANOVA). DC and monocyte production of MIP-1a was significantly reduced following exposure to PRBC (DC: P < 0.05 at D2, 28, 42; Monocyte P < 0.05 all time points). In cultures co-stimulated with LPS and zymosan, a similar suppression of MIP-1a production was also evident, and production of both DC and monocyte MIP-1b and IP-10 were also significantly reduced. Conclusions: The complexity of the transfusion context was reflected in the whole blood approach utilised. Significant suppression of these key DC and monocyte immune responses may contribute to patient outcomes, such as increased risk of infection and longer hospital stay, following blood transfusion.

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Background Transfusion-related acute lung injury (TRALI) is a serious and potentially fatal consequence of transfusion. A two-event TRALI model demonstrated date-of-expiry - day (D) 5 platelet (PLT) and D42 packed red blood cell (PRBC) supernatants (SN) induced TRALI in LPS-treated sheep. We have adapted a whole blood transfusion culture model as an investigative bridge between the ovine TRALI model human responses to transfusion. Methods A whole blood transfusion model was adapted to replicate the ovine model - specifically +/- 0.23μg/mL LPS as the first event and 10% SN volume (transfusion) as the second event. Four pooled SN from blood products, previously used in the TRALI ovine model, were investigated: D1-PLT, D5-PLT, D1-PRBC, and D42-PRBC. Fresh human whole blood (recipient) was mixed with combinations of LPS and BP-SN stimuli and incubated in vitro for 6 hrs. Addition of golgi plug enabled measurement of monocyte cytokine production (IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, IL-12, TNF-α, IL-1α, CXCL-5, IP-10, MIP-1α, MCP-1) using multi-colour flow cytometry. Responses for 6 recipients were assessed. Results In the presence of LPS, D42-PRBC-SN significantly increased monocyte IL-6 (P=0.031), IL-8 (P=0.016) and IL-1α (P=0.008) production compared to D1-PRBC-SN. This response to D42-PRBC-SN was LPS-dependent, and was not evident in non-LPSstimulated controls. This response was also specific to D42-PRBC-SN, as similar changes were not evident for the D5-PLT-SN, compared to the D1-PLT-SN, regardless of the presence of LPS. D5-PLT-SN significantly increased IL-12 production (P=0.024) compared to D1-PLT-SN. This response was again LPS-dependent. Conclusions These data demonstrate a novel two-event mechanism of monocyte inflammatory response that was dependent upon both the presence of date-of-expiry blood product SN and LPS. Further, these results demonstrate different cytokines responses induced by date-of-expiry PLT-SN and PRBC-SN. These data are consistent with the evidence from the ovine TRALI model, and enhancing its relevance to transfusion related changes in humans.

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Process models are often used to visualize and communicate workflows to involved stakeholders. Unfortunately, process modeling notations can be complex and need specific knowledge to be understood. Storyboards, as a visual language to illustrate workflows as sequences of images, provide natural visualization features that allow for better communication, to provide insight to people from non-process modelling expert domains. This paper proposes a visualization approach using a 3D virtual world environment to visualize storyboards for business process models. A prototype was built to present its applicability via generating output with examples of five major process model patterns and two non-trivial use cases. Illustrative results for the approach show the promise of using a 3D virtual world to visualize complex process models in an unambiguous and intuitive manner.

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Indirect inference (II) is a methodology for estimating the parameters of an intractable (generative) model on the basis of an alternative parametric (auxiliary) model that is both analytically and computationally easier to deal with. Such an approach has been well explored in the classical literature but has received substantially less attention in the Bayesian paradigm. The purpose of this paper is to compare and contrast a collection of what we call parametric Bayesian indirect inference (pBII) methods. One class of pBII methods uses approximate Bayesian computation (referred to here as ABC II) where the summary statistic is formed on the basis of the auxiliary model, using ideas from II. Another approach proposed in the literature, referred to here as parametric Bayesian indirect likelihood (pBIL), we show to be a fundamentally different approach to ABC II. We devise new theoretical results for pBIL to give extra insights into its behaviour and also its differences with ABC II. Furthermore, we examine in more detail the assumptions required to use each pBII method. The results, insights and comparisons developed in this paper are illustrated on simple examples and two other substantive applications. The first of the substantive examples involves performing inference for complex quantile distributions based on simulated data while the second is for estimating the parameters of a trivariate stochastic process describing the evolution of macroparasites within a host based on real data. We create a novel framework called Bayesian indirect likelihood (BIL) which encompasses pBII as well as general ABC methods so that the connections between the methods can be established.

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There is increasing momentum in cancer care to implement a two stage assessment process that accurately determines the ability of older patients to cope with, and benefit from, chemotherapy. The two-step approach aims to ensure that patients clearly fit for chemotherapy can be accurately identified and referred for treatment without undergoing a time- and resource-intensive comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA). Ideally, this process removes the uncertainty of how to classify and then appropriately treat the older cancer patient. After trialling a two-stage screen and CGA process in the Division of Cancer Services at Princess Alexandra Hospital (PAH) in 2011-2012, we implemented a model of oncogeriatric care based on our findings. In this paper, we explore the methodological and practical aspects of implementing the PAH model and outline further work needed to refine the process in our treatment context.

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A multi-segment foot model was used to develop an accurate and reliable kinematic model to describe in-shoe foot kinematics during gait.

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The use of mobile phones while driving is more prevalent among young drivers—a less experienced cohort with elevated crash risk. The objective of this study was to examine and better understand the reaction times of young drivers to a traffic event originating in their peripheral vision whilst engaged in a mobile phone conversation. The CARRS-Q Advanced Driving Simulator was used to test a sample of young drivers on various simulated driving tasks, including an event that originated within the driver’s peripheral vision, whereby a pedestrian enters a zebra crossing from a sidewalk. Thirty-two licensed drivers drove the simulator in three phone conditions: baseline (no phone conversation), hands-free and handheld. In addition to driving the simulator each participant completed questionnaires related to driver demographics, driving history, usage of mobile phones while driving, and general mobile phone usage history. The participants were 21 to 26 years old and split evenly by gender. Drivers’ reaction times to a pedestrian in the zebra crossing were modelled using a parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) duration model with a Weibull distribution. Also tested where two different model specifications to account for the structured heterogeneity arising from the repeated measures experimental design. The Weibull AFT model with gamma heterogeneity was found to be the best fitting model and identified four significant variables influencing the reaction times, including phone condition, driver’s age, license type (Provisional license holder or not), and self-reported frequency of usage of handheld phones while driving. The reaction times of drivers were more than 40% longer in the distracted condition compared to baseline (not distracted). Moreover, the impairment of reaction times due to mobile phone conversations was almost double for provisional compared to open license holders. A reduction in the ability to detect traffic events in the periphery whilst distracted presents a significant and measurable safety concern that will undoubtedly persist unless mitigated.

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This thesis establishes performance properties for approximate filters and controllers that are designed on the basis of approximate dynamic system representations. These performance properties provide a theoretical justification for the widespread application of approximate filters and controllers in the common situation where system models are not known with complete certainty. This research also provides useful tools for approximate filter designs, which are applied to hybrid filtering of uncertain nonlinear systems. As a contribution towards applications, this thesis also investigates air traffic separation control in the presence of measurement uncertainties.

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This thesis represents a step forward in the development of a pre-clinical model investigating a suitable substitute for host bone for use in human spinal fusion. By way of an animal model, it examines the biological performance of a novel bone graft substitute comprised of a combination of a custom-designed biodegradable material and biologics.