Recurrence risk modelling of the genetic susceptibility to ankylosing spondylitis

Objectives - It has long been suspected that susceptibility to ankylosing spondylitis (AS) is influenced by genes lying distant to the major histocompatibility complex. This study compares genetic models of AS to assess the most likely mode of inheritance, using recurrence risk ratios in relatives of affected subjects. Methods - Recurrence risk ratios in different degrees of relatives were determined using published data from studies specifically designed to address the question. The methods of Risch were used to determine the expected recurrence risk ratios in different degrees of relatives, assuming equal first degree relative recurrence risk between models. Goodness of fit was determined by χ2 comparison of the expected number of affected subjects with the observed number, given equal numbers of each type of relative studied. Results - The recurrence risks in different degrees of relatives were: monozygotic (MZ) twins 63% (17/27), first degree relatives 8.2% (441/5390), second degree relatives 1.0% (8/834), and third degree relatives 0.7% (7/997). Parent-child recurrence risk (7.9%, 37/466) was not significantly different from the sibling recurrence risk (8.2%, 404/4924), excluding a significant dominance genetic component to susceptibility. Poor fitting models included single gene, genetic heterogeneity, additive, two locus multiplicative, and one locus and residual polygenes (χ2 > 32 (two degrees of freedom), p < 10-6 for all models). The best fitting model studied was a five locus model with multiplicative interaction between loci (χ2 = 1.4 (two degrees of freedom), p = 0.5). Oligogenic multiplicative models were the best fitting over a range of population prevalences and first degree recurrence risk rates. Conclusions - This study suggests that of the genetic models tested, the most likely model operating in AS is an oligogenic model with predominantly multiplicative interaction between loci.

Finnish HLA studies confirm the increased risk conferred by HLA-B27 homozygosity in ankylosing spondylitis

Objective: To determine the influence of HLA-B27 homozygosity and HLA-DRB1 alleles in the susceptibility to, and severity of, ankylosing spondylitis in a Finnish population. Methods: 673 individuals from 261 families with ankylosing spondylitis were genotyped for HLA-DRB1 alleles and HLA-B27 heterozygosity/ homozygosity. The frequencies of HLA-B27 homozygotes in probands from these families were compared with the expected number of HLA-B27 homozygotes in controls under Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE). The effect of HLA-DRB1 alleles was assessed using a logistic regression procedure conditioned on HLA-B27 and case-control analysis. Results: HLA-B27 was detected in 93% of cases of ankylosing spondylitis. An overrepresentation of HLA-B27 homozygotes was noted in ankylosing spondylitis (11%) compared with the expected number of HLA-B27 homozygotes under HWE (4%) (odds ratio (OR) = 3.3 (95% confidence interval, 1.6 to 6.8), p = 0.002). HLA-B27 homozygosity was marginally associated with reduced BASDAI (HLA-B27 homozygotes, 4.5 (1.6); HLA-B27 heterozygotes, 5.4 (1.8) (mean (SD)), p = 0.05). Acute anterior uveitis (AAU) was present in significantly more HLA-B27 positive cases (50%) than HLA-B27 negative cases (16%) (OR = 5.4 (1.7 to 17), p<0.004). HLA-B27 positive cases had a lower average age of symptom onset (26.7 (8.0) years) compared with HLA-B27 negative cases (35.7 (11.2) years) (p<0.0001). Conclusions: HLA-627 homozygosity is associated with a moderately increased risk of ankylosing spondylitis compared with HLA-β27 heterozygosity. HLA-B27 positive cases had an earlier age of onset of ankylosing spondylitis than HLA-B27 negative cases and were more likely to develop AAU. HLA-DRB1 alleles may influence the age of symptom onset of ankylosing spondylitis.

A framework for freeway incident modeling and traffic re-routing

This paper proposes an analytical Incident Traffic Management framework for freeway incident modeling and traffic re-routing. The proposed framework incorporates an econometric incident duration model and a traffic re-routing optimization module. The incident duration model is used to estimate the expected duration of the incident and thus determine the planning horizon for the re-routing module. The re-routing module is a CTM-based Single Destination System Optimal Dynamic Traffic Assignment model that generates optimal real-time strategies of re-routing freeway traffic to its adjacent arterial network during incidents. The proposed framework has been applied to a case study network including a freeway and its adjacent arterial network in South East Queensland, Australia. The results from different scenarios of freeway demand and incident blockage extent have been analyzed and advantages of the proposed framework are demonstrated.

Agreement between physiotherapists rating scapular posture in multiple planes in patients with neck pain: Reliability study

Objective Evaluation of scapular posture is an integral component of the clinical assessment of painful neck disorders. The aim of this study was to evaluate agreement between therapist judgements of scapula posture in multiple biomechanical planes in individuals with neck pain. Design Inter-therapist reliability study. Setting Research laboratory. Participants Fifteen participants with chronic neck pain. Main outcome measures Four physiotherapists recorded ratings of scapular orientation (relative to the thorax) in five different scapula postural planes (plane of scapula, sagittal plane, transverse plane, horizontal plane, and vertical plane) under four test conditions (at rest, and during three isometric shoulder conditions) in all participants. Inter-therapist reliability was expressed using both generalized and paired kappa coefficient. Results Following adjustment for expected agreement and the high prevalence of neutral ratings (81%), on average both the generalised kappa (0.37) as well as Cohen's Kappa for the two therapist pairs (0.45 and 0.42) demonstrated only slight to moderate inter-therapist reliability. Conclusions The findings suggest that ratings of scapular posture in individuals with neck pain by visual inspection has only slight to moderate reliability and should only be used in conjunction with other clinical tests when judging scapula function in these patients.

Genome-wide association study for radiographic vertebral fractures: A potential role for the 16q24 BMD locus

Vertebral fracture risk is a heritable complex trait. The aim of this study was to identify genetic susceptibility factors for osteoporotic vertebral fractures applying a genome-wide association study (GWAS) approach. The GWAS discovery was based on the Rotterdam Study, a population-based study of elderly Dutch individuals aged >55years; and comprising 329 cases and 2666 controls with radiographic scoring (McCloskey-Kanis) and genetic data. Replication of one top-associated SNP was pursued by de-novo genotyping of 15 independent studies across Europe, the United States, and Australia and one Asian study. Radiographic vertebral fracture assessment was performed using McCloskey-Kanis or Genant semi-quantitative definitions. SNPs were analyzed in relation to vertebral fracture using logistic regression models corrected for age and sex. Fixed effects inverse variance and Han-Eskin alternative random effects meta-analyses were applied. Genome-wide significance was set at p<5×10-8. In the discovery, a SNP (rs11645938) on chromosome 16q24 was associated with the risk for vertebral fractures at p=4.6×10-8. However, the association was not significant across 5720 cases and 21,791 controls from 14 studies. Fixed-effects meta-analysis summary estimate was 1.06 (95% CI: 0.98-1.14; p=0.17), displaying high degree of heterogeneity (I2=57%; Qhet p=0.0006). Under Han-Eskin alternative random effects model the summary effect was significant (p=0.0005). The SNP maps to a region previously found associated with lumbar spine bone mineral density (LS-BMD) in two large meta-analyses from the GEFOS consortium. A false positive association in the GWAS discovery cannot be excluded, yet, the low-powered setting of the discovery and replication settings (appropriate to identify risk effect size >1.25) may still be consistent with an effect size <1.10, more of the type expected in complex traits. Larger effort in studies with standardized phenotype definitions is needed to confirm or reject the involvement of this locus on the risk for vertebral fractures.

Combination inhaled corticosteroids and long-acting beta2-agonists for children and adults with bronchiectasis

BACKGROUND Bronchiectasis is a major contributor to chronic respiratory morbidity and mortality worldwide. Wheeze and other asthma-like symptoms and bronchial hyperreactivity may occur in people with bronchiectasis. Physicians often use asthma treatments in patients with bronchiectasis. OBJECTIVES To assess the effects of inhaled long-acting beta2-agonists (LABA) combined with inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) in children and adults with bronchiectasis during (1) acute exacerbations and (2) stable state. SEARCH METHODS The Cochrane Airways Group searched the the Cochrane Airways Group Specialised Register of Trials, which includes records identified from the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, EMBASE and other databases. The Cochrane Airways Group performed the latest searches in October 2013. SELECTION CRITERIA All randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of combined ICS and LABA compared with a control (placebo, no treatment, ICS as monotherapy) in children and adults with bronchiectasis not related to cystic fibrosis (CF). DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS Two review authors extracted data independently using standard methodological procedures as expected by The Cochrane Collaboration. MAIN RESULTS We found no RCTs comparing ICS and LABA combination with either placebo or usual care. We included one RCT that compared combined ICS and LABA with high-dose ICS in 40 adults with non-CF bronchiectasis without co-existent asthma. All participants received three months of high-dose budesonide dipropionate treatment (1600 micrograms). After three months, participants were randomly assigned to receive either high-dose budesonide dipropionate (1600 micrograms per day) or a combination of budesonide with formoterol (640 micrograms of budesonide and 18 micrograms of formoterol) for three months. The study was not blinded. We assessed it to be an RCT with overall high risk of bias. Data analysed in this review showed that those who received combined ICS-LABA (in stable state) had a significantly better transition dyspnoea index (mean difference (MD) 1.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.40 to 2.18) and cough-free days (MD 12.30, 95% CI 2.38 to 22.2) compared with those receiving ICS after three months of treatment. No significant difference was noted between groups in quality of life (MD -4.57, 95% CI -12.38 to 3.24), number of hospitalisations (odds ratio (OR) 0.26, 95% CI 0.02 to 2.79) or lung function (forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC)). Investigators reported 37 adverse events in the ICS group versus 12 events in the ICS-LABA group but did not mention the number of individuals experiencing adverse events. Hence differences between groups were not included in the analyses. We assessed the overall evidence to be low quality. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS In adults with bronchiectasis without co-existent asthma, during stable state, a small single trial with a high risk of bias suggests that combined ICS-LABA may improve dyspnoea and increase cough-free days in comparison with high-dose ICS. No data are provided for or against, the use of combined ICS-LABA in adults with bronchiectasis during an acute exacerbation, or in children with bronchiectasis in a stable or acute state. The absence of high quality evidence means that decisions to use or discontinue combined ICS-LABA in people with bronchiectasis may need to take account of the presence or absence of co-existing airway hyper-responsiveness and consideration of adverse events associated with combined ICS-LABA.

An investigation into the effectiveness of sensory modulation in reducing seclusion within an acute mental health unit

In this paper we report the findings from an evaluation of the introduction of sensory modulation (SM) in an acute mental health inpatient unit. It was expected that SM could be used to help settle patients experiencing high levels of disturbance and that as a result, there would be less need for use of more restrictive seclusion practices. The evaluation took place in a hospital in south-east Queensland, Australia. SM was introduced in one acute unit while the other served as a control. The evaluation comprised two studies. In the first study we aimed to determine whether SM reduced the level of disturbance among patients given the opportunity to use it. In the second study we aimed to find out whether the introduction of SM reduced the frequency and duration of seclusion. In study 1, we found that most patients reported marked reduction in disturbance after using SM and there was a very large effect size for the group as a whole. In study 2, we found that frequency of seclusion dropped dramatically in the unit that introduced SM but rose slightly in the unit that did not have access to SM. The change in seclusion rate was highly significant (χ2 = 49.1, df = 1, p < 0.001). Results are discussed, having reference to the limitations inherent in a naturalistic study.

Multiple primary cancers associated with Merkel cell carcinoma in Queensland, Australia, 1982-2011

The relatively high incidence of Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) in Queensland provides a valuable opportunity to examine links with other cancers. A retrospective cohort study was performed using data from the Queensland Cancer Registry. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were used to approximate the relative risk of being diagnosed with another primary cancer either following or prior to MCC. Patients with an eligible first primary MCC (n=787) had more than double the expected number of subsequent primary cancers (SIR=2.19, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.84–2.60; P<0.001). Conversely, people who were initially diagnosed with cancers other than MCC were about two and a half times more likely to have a subsequent primary MCC (n=244) compared with the general population (SIR=2.69, 95% CI=2.36–3.05; P<0.001). Significantly increased bi-directional relative risks were found for melanoma, lip cancer, head and neck cancer, lung cancer, myelodysplastic diseases, and cancer with unknown primary site. In addition, risks were elevated for female breast cancer and kidney cancer following a first primary MCC, and for subsequent MCCs following first primary colorectal cancer, prostate cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, or lymphoid leukemia. These results suggest that several shared pathways are likely for MCC and other cancers, including immunosuppression, UV radiation, and genetics.

American lessons: Implementing fair use in Australia

This article discusses the recent Australian Law Reform Commission report proposing a fair use defense to copyright infringement in Australia. It examines the experience of fair use cases in the United States and draws three lessons from the jurisprudential history. First, it suggests that decisions in fair use can only really be understood within a theoretical framework, and that unless we import that framework into Australia any fair use defense will not work as expected. Secondly, the article argues that the area where fair use jurisprudence appears to be most helpful, in dealing with “transformative” works, is actually much more limited than outsiders to the US would expect. And finally, it suggests that any implementation of a factor related to market substitution should take account of the gaming of the system that has gone on in the US.

An alternative approach to describing agility in sports through establishment of a relationship between velocity and radius of curvature

Agility is an essential part of many athletic activities. Currently, agility drill duration is the sole criterion used for evaluation of agility performance. The relationship between drill duration and factors such as acceleration, deceleration and change of direction, however, has not been fully explored. This paper provides a mathematical description of the relationship between velocity and radius of curvatures in an agility drill through implementation of a power law (PL). Two groups of skilled and unskilled participants performed a cyclic forward/backward shuttle agility test. Kinematic data was recorded using motion capture system at a sampling rate of 200 Hz. The logarithmic relationship between tangential velocity and radius of curvature of participant trajectories in both groups was established using the PL. The slope of the regression line was found to be 0.26 and 0.36, for the skilled and unskilled groups, respectively. The magnitudes of regression line slope for both groups were approximately 0.3 which is close to the expected 1/3 value. Results are an indication of how the PL could be implemented in an agility drill thus opening the way for establishment of a more representative measure of agility performance instead of drill duration.

UWB channel measurement and data transfer analysis for multiuser Infostation applications

In this paper, the results of the time dispersion parameters obtained from a set of channel measurements conducted in various environments that are typical of multiuser Infostation application scenarios are presented. The measurement procedure takes into account the practical scenarios typical of the positions and movements of the users in the particular Infostation network. To provide one with the knowledge of how much data can be downloaded by users over a given time and mobile speed, data transfer analysis for multiband orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (MB-OFDM) is presented. As expected, the rough estimate of simultaneous data transfer in a multiuser Infostation scenario indicates dependency of the percentage of download on the data size, number and speed of the users, and the elapse time.

Methods for constructing uncertainty intervals for queries of Bayesian nets

In this paper the issue of finding uncertainty intervals for queries in a Bayesian Network is reconsidered. The investigation focuses on Bayesian Nets with discrete nodes and finite populations. An earlier asymptotic approach is compared with a simulation-based approach, together with further alternatives, one based on a single sample of the Bayesian Net of a particular finite population size, and another which uses expected population sizes together with exact probabilities. We conclude that a query of a Bayesian Net should be expressed as a probability embedded in an uncertainty interval. Based on an investigation of two Bayesian Net structures, the preferred method is the simulation method. However, both the single sample method and the expected sample size methods may be useful and are simpler to compute. Any method at all is more useful than none, when assessing a Bayesian Net under development, or when drawing conclusions from an ‘expert’ system.

Atomic resolution of dielectric with low temperature coefficient

Ba(6-3x)Nd(8+2x)Ti(18)O(54) (BNTl14) is a high permittivity dielectric with low temperature coefficient (Tcf). Low coefficient of change of dielectric permittivity with temperature (Tcf) is an unusual materials property. The research is aimed at discovering how atomic structure relates to temperature coefficient. Sub-Ångström scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) is used to measure mixed occupancy of Nd and Ba in atomic columns. It was expected that phase separation would occur to accommodate mixing of dissimilar ions. However no evidence of phase separation was found. There is a good image match between experiment and high angle annular dark field (HAADF) simulation. Vacancies and excess Ba ions appear to be randomly arranged on the available sites which would result in distortion of TiO6 octahedra. The low Tcf may arise from TiO6 distortion.

One practical algorithm for both stochastic and adversarial bandits

We present an algorithm for multiarmed bandits that achieves almost optimal performance in both stochastic and adversarial regimes without prior knowledge about the nature of the environment. Our algorithm is based on augmentation of the EXP3 algorithm with a new control lever in the form of exploration parameters that are tailored individually for each arm. The algorithm simultaneously applies the “old” control lever, the learning rate, to control the regret in the adversarial regime and the new control lever to detect and exploit gaps between the arm losses. This secures problem-dependent “logarithmic” regret when gaps are present without compromising on the worst-case performance guarantee in the adversarial regime. We show that the algorithm can exploit both the usual expected gaps between the arm losses in the stochastic regime and deterministic gaps between the arm losses in the adversarial regime. The algorithm retains “logarithmic” regret guarantee in the stochastic regime even when some observations are contaminated by an adversary, as long as on average the contamination does not reduce the gap by more than a half. Our results for the stochastic regime are supported by experimental validation.

Pancreatic islet basement membrane loss and remodeling after mouse islet isolation and transplantation: Impact for allograft rejection

The isolation of islets by collagenase digestion can cause damage and impact the efficiency of islet engraftment and function. In this study, we assessed the basement membranes (BMs) of mouse pancreatic islets as a molecular biomarker for islet integrity, damage after isolation, and islet repair in vitro as well as in the absence or presence of an immune response after transplantation. Immunofluorescence staining of BM matrix proteins and the endothelial cell marker platelet endothelial cell adhesion molecule-1 (PECAM-1) was performed on pancreatic islets in situ, isolated islets, islets cultured for 4 days, and islet grafts at 3-10 days posttransplantation. Flow cytometry was used to investigate the expression of BM matrix proteins in isolated islet β-cells. The islet BM, consisting of collagen type IV and components of Engelbreth-Holm-Swarm (EHS) tumor laminin 111, laminin α2, nidogen-2, and perlecan in pancreatic islets in situ, was completely lost during islet isolation. It was not reestablished during culture for 4 days. Peri- and intraislet BM restoration was identified after islet isotransplantation and coincided with the migration pattern of PECAM-1(+) vascular endothelial cells (VECs). After islet allotransplantation, the restoration of VEC-derived peri-islet BMs was initiated but did not lead to the formation of the intraislet vasculature. Instead, an abnormally enlarged peri-islet vasculature developed, coinciding with islet allograft rejection. The islet BM is a sensitive biomarker of islet damage resulting from enzymatic isolation and of islet repair after transplantation. After transplantation, remodeling of both peri- and intraislet BMs restores β-cell-matrix attachment, a recognized requirement for β-cell survival, for isografts but not for allografts. Preventing isolation-induced islet BM damage would be expected to preserve the intrinsic barrier function of islet BMs, thereby influencing both the effector mechanisms required for allograft rejection and the antirejection strategies needed for allograft survival.