Projecting the impact of climate change on dengue transmission in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Weather variables, mainly temperature and humidity influence vectors, viruses, human biology, ecology and consequently the intensity and distribution of the vector-borne diseases. There is evidence that warmer temperature due to climate change will influence the dengue transmission. However, long term scenario-based projections are yet to be developed. Here, we assessed the impact of weather variability on dengue transmission in a megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh and projected the future dengue risk attributable to climate change. Our results show that weather variables particularly temperature and humidity were positively associated with dengue transmission. The effects of weather variables were observed at a lag of four months. We projected that assuming a temperature increase of 3.3 °C without any adaptation measure and changes in socio-economic condition, there will be a projected increase of 16,030 dengue cases in Dhaka by the end of this century. This information might be helpful for the public health authorities to prepare for the likely increase of dengue due to climate change. The modelling framework used in this study may be applicable to dengue projection in other cities.

A stochastic thermostat algorithm for coarse-grained thermomechanical modeling of large-scale soft matters : theory and application to microfilaments

As all-atom molecular dynamics method is limited by its enormous computational cost, various coarse-grained strategies have been developed to extend the length scale of soft matters in the modeling of mechanical behaviors. However, the classical thermostat algorithm in highly coarse-grained molecular dynamics method would underestimate the thermodynamic behaviors of soft matters (e.g. microfilaments in cells), which can weaken the ability of materials to overcome local energy traps in granular modeling. Based on all-atom molecular dynamics modeling of microfilament fragments (G-actin clusters), a new stochastic thermostat algorithm is developed to retain the representation of thermodynamic properties of microfilaments at extra coarse-grained level. The accuracy of this stochastic thermostat algorithm is validated by all-atom MD simulation. This new stochastic thermostat algorithm provides an efficient way to investigate the thermomechanical properties of large-scale soft matters.

Second-order elastic finite element analysis of steel structures using a single element per member

Finite element frame analysis programs targeted for design office application necessitate algorithms which can deliver reliable numerical convergence in a practical timeframe with comparable degrees of accuracy, and a highly desirable attribute is the use of a single element per member to reduce computational storage, as well as data preparation and the interpretation of the results. To this end, a higher-order finite element method including geometric non-linearity is addressed in the paper for the analysis of elastic frames for which a single element is used to model each member. The geometric non-linearity in the structure is handled using an updated Lagrangian formulation, which takes the effects of the large translations and rotations that occur at the joints into consideration by accumulating their nodal coordinates. Rigid body movements are eliminated from the local member load-displacement relationship for which the total secant stiffness is formulated for evaluating the large member deformations of an element. The influences of the axial force on the member stiffness and the changes in the member chord length are taken into account using a modified bowing function which is formulated in the total secant stiffness relationship, for which the coupling of the axial strain and flexural bowing is included. The accuracy and efficiency of the technique is verified by comparisons with a number of plane and spatial structures, whose structural response has been reported in independent studies.

Brief screening for psychosis-like experiences

Objective Psychotic-like experiences (PLEs) are common, and are markers of poor mental health. This study examined the internal structure of a screening test, the Community Assessment of Psychic Experiences-Positive scale (CAPE-P) in a young Australian sample. Method A cross-sectional online survey, which included the CAPE-P, was completed by 1610 university students aged between 18 and 25 years. Confirmatory factor analyses compared 1-, 4-, and 5-factor models, and examined effects of omitting selected items. Results A 3-factor model, omitting items on magical thinking, grandiosity, paranormal beliefs and a cross-loading item produced the best fit. The resultant 15-item CAPE (CAPE-P15) had three subscales - Persecutory Ideation, Perceptual Abnormalities and Bizarre Experiences, all with high levels of internal consistency. Conclusion The CAPE-P15 shows promise as a measure of positive, psychosis-like experiences, but further validation of this measure is required in community samples.

Differences between first episode schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorder

Background: The diagnostic and clinical overlap between schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorder is an important nosological issue in psychiatry that is yet to be resolved. The aim of this study was to compare the clinical and functional characteristics of an epidemiological treated cohort of first episode patients with an 18-month discharge diagnosis of schizophrenia (FES) or schizoaffective disorder (FESA). Methods: This study was part of the larger First Episode Psychosis Outcome Study (FEPOS) which involved a medical file audit study of all 786 patients treated at the Early Psychosis Prevention and Intervention Centre between 1998 and 2000. Of this cohort, 283 patients had a 18-month discharge diagnosis of FES and 64 had a diagnosis of FESA. DSM-IV diagnoses, clinical and functional ratings were derived and validated by two consultant psychiatrists. Results: Compared to FES patients, those with FESA were significantly more likely to have a later age of onset (p=.004), longer prodrome (p=.020), and a longer duration of untreated psychosis (p<.001). At service entry, FESA patients presented with a higher illness severity (p=.020), largely due to the presence of more severe manic symptoms (p<.001). FESA patients also had a greater number of subsequent inpatient admissions (p=.017), had more severe depressive symptoms (p=.011), and higher levels of functioning at discharge. Discussion: The findings support the notion that these might be considered two discernable disorders; however, further research is required to ascertain the ways and extent to which these disorders are discriminable at presentation and over time.

Investigating the individual and organisational predictors of work-related driving crash involvement in Ethiopia

The rate of road traffic injury and death in Ethiopia is at a critical level when compared to rates in high-income countries. Considering the enormity of this issue, research is to identify groups of high-risk road users and the factors contributing to their crash involvement. This study focuses on work-related drivers. This study explores driving behaviour as a mediator of the relationship between organisational and individual attribute factors and self-reported crashes in a sample of 213 work-related drivers in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The hypothesised framework identifies driving behaviour as the most proximal determinant of self-reported crashes, and safety values, role overload and self-efficacy as antecedents of driving behaviour. With the exception of the relationship between self-efficacy and driving behaviour, all the hypothesised relationships were supported. We make recommendations for intervention approaches that are theoretically focused and sensitive to the cultural context.

Bifurcations to travelling planar spots in a three-component FitzHugh-Nagumo system

In this article, we analyse bifurcations from stationary stable spots to travelling spots in a planar three-component FitzHugh-Nagumo system that was proposed previously as a phenomenological model of gas-discharge systems. By combining formal analyses, center-manifold reductions, and detailed numerical continuation studies, we show that, in the parameter regime under consideration, the stationary spot destabilizes either through its zeroth Fourier mode in a Hopf bifurcation or through its first Fourier mode in a pitchfork or drift bifurcation, whilst the remaining Fourier modes appear to create only secondary bifurcations. Pitchfork bifurcations result in travelling spots, and we derive criteria for the criticality of these bifurcations. Our main finding is that supercritical drift bifurcations, leading to stable travelling spots, arise in this model, which does not seem possible for its two-component version.

The impact of neighborhood walkability on walking : does it differ across adult life stage and does neighborhood buffer size matter?

We explored the impact of neighborhood walkability on young adults, early-middle adults, middle-aged adults, and older adults' walking across different neighborhood buffers. Participants completed the Western Australian Health and Wellbeing Surveillance System Survey (2003–2009) and were allocated a neighborhood walkability score at 200 m, 400 m, 800 m, and 1600 m around their home. We found little difference in strength of associations across neighborhood size buffers for all life stages. We conclude that neighborhood walkability supports more walking regardless of adult life stage and is relevant for small (e.g., 200 m) and larger (e.g., 1600 m) neighborhood buffers.

Biological markers of stress in pediatric acute burn injury

BACKGROUND Burns and their associated wound care procedures evoke significant stress and anxiety, particularly for children. Little is known about the body's physiological stress reactions throughout the stages of re-epithelialization following an acute burn injury. Previously, serum and urinary cortisol have been used to measure stress in burn patients, however these measures are not suitable for a pediatric burn outpatient setting. AIM To assess the sensitivity of salivary cortisol and sAA in detecting stress during acute burn wound care procedures and to investigate the body's physiological stress reactions throughout burn re-epithelialization. METHODS Seventy-seven participants aged four to thirteen years who presented with an acute burn injury to the burn center at the Royal Children's Hospital, Brisbane, Australia, were recruited between August 2011 and August 2012. RESULTS Both biomarkers were responsive to the stress of burn wound care procedures. sAA levels were on average 50.2U/ml higher (p<0.001) at 10min post-dressing removal compared to baseline levels. Salivary cortisol levels showed a blunted effect with average levels at ten minutes post dressing removal decreasing by 0.54nmol/L (p<0.001) compared to baseline levels. sAA levels were associated with pain (p=0.021), no medication (p=0.047) and Child Trauma Screening Questionnaire scores at three months post re-epithelialization (p=0.008). Similarly, salivary cortisol was associated with no medication (p<0.001), pain scores (p=0.045) and total body surface area of the burn (p=0.010). CONCLUSION Factors which support the use of sAA over salivary cortisol to assess stress during morning acute burn wound care procedures include; sensitivity, morning clinic times relative to cortisol's diurnal peaks, and relative cost.

Interleukin-1β stimulates human renal fibroblast proliferation and matrix protein production by means of a transforming growth factor-β-dependent mechanism

One of the hallmarks of progressive renal disease is the development of tubulointerstitial fibrosis. This is frequently preceded by macrophage infiltration, raising the possibility that macrophages relay fibrogenic signals to resident tubulointerstitial cells. The aim of this study was to investigate the potentially fibrogenic role of interleukin-1beta (IL-1beta), a macrophage-derived inflammatory cytokine, on cortical fibroblasts (CFs). Primary cultures of human renal CFs were established and incubated for 24 hours in the presence or absence of IL-1beta. We found that IL-1beta significantly stimulated DNA synthesis (356.7% +/- 39% of control, P <.003), fibronectin secretion (261.8 +/- 11% of control, P <.005), collagen type 1 production, (release of procollagen type 1 C-terminal-peptide, 152.4% +/- 26% of control, P <.005), transforming growth factor-beta (TGF-beta) secretion (211% +/- 37% of control, P <.01), and nitric oxide (NO) production (342.8% +/- 69% of control, P <.002). TGF-beta (1 ng/mL) and the phorbol ester phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate (PMA, 25 nmol/L) produced fibrogenic effects similar to those of IL-1beta. Neither a NO synthase inhibitor (N(G)-methyl-l-arginine, 1 mmol/L) nor a protein kinase C (PKC) inhibitor (bis-indolylmaleimide 1, 1 micromol/L) altered the enhanced level of fibronectin secretion or DNA synthesis seen in response to IL-1beta treatment. However, addition of a TGF-beta-neutralizing antibody significantly reduced IL-1beta-induced fibronectin secretion (IL-1beta + IgG, 262% +/- 72% vs IL-1beta + alphaTGF-beta 156% +/- 14%, P <.02), collagen type 1 production (IL-1beta + IgG, 176% +/- 28% vs IL-1beta + alphaTGF-beta, 120% +/- 14%, P <.005) and abrogated IL-1beta-induced DNA synthesis (245% +/- 49% vs 105% +/- 21%, P <.005). IL-1beta significantly stimulated CF DNA synthesis and production of fibronectin, collagen type 1, TGFbeta, and NO. The fibrogenic and proliferative action of IL-1beta on CF appears not to involve activation of PKC or production of NO but is at least partly TGFbeta-dependent.

The poor penetration of topical burn agent through burn eschar on a porcine burn model [Letter to the Editor]

We read with great interest the article entitled “Enhancing drugs absorption through third-degree burn wound eschar” by Manafi et al. [1]. The authors addressed the concern of poor penetration of topically applied anti-microbials through burn eschar and detailed the improvement of this penetration by penetration enhancers. Here, we would like to report the poor penetration of a topical agent into the viable deep dermal layer under burn eschar on a porcine burn model [2]. In burn treatment, a common practice is the topical application of either anti-microbial products or wound enhancing agents. While the activity of anti-microbial products is designed to fight against microbes on the wound surface but with the least toxicity to viable tissue, wound enhancing agents need to reach the viable tissue layer under the burn eschar. Many studies have reported the accelerated healing of superficial burn wounds and skin graft donor sites by the topical application of exogeneous growth factors [3]. It is well known that the efficacy of the penetration of a topical agent on intact skin mostly depends on the molecular size of the product [4] and [5]. While burn injury destroys this epidermal physiological barrier, the coagulated burn tissue layer on the burn wound surface makes it difficult for topical agents to reach viable tissue....

Burn healing is dependent on burn site : a quantitative analysis from a porcine burn model

This retrospective review examines healing in different sites on a porcine burn model; 24 pairs of burns on 18 pigs from other animal trials were selected for analysis. Each pair of burns was located on the either the cranial or the caudal part of the thoracic ribs region, on the same side of the animal. The burns were 40-50 cm(2) in size and of uniform deep-dermal partial thickness. Caudal burns healed significantly better than cranial burns, demonstrated by earlier closure of wounds, less scar formation and better cosmesis. To our knowledge, this is the first detailed study reporting that burn healing is affected by location on a porcine burn model. We recommend that similar symmetrical burns should be used for future comparative assessments of burn healing.

Replacement of healthcare-associated MRSA by community-associated MRSA in Queensland : confirmation by genotyping

Objective To describe the changing prevalence of healthcare- and community-associated MRSA. Methods Susceptibility phenotypes of MRSA were observed from 2000 to 2012 using routine susceptibility data. Phenotypic definitions of major clones were validated by genotyping isolates from a nested period prevalence survey in 2011. Results The predominant healthcare-associated (AUS-2/3 like) MRSA phenotype decreased from 42 to 14 isolates per million occasions of service in outpatients (P < 0.0001) and from 650 to 75 isolates per million accrued patient days in inpatients (P 0.0005), while the respective rates of the healthcare-related EMRSA-15 like phenotype increased from 1 to 19 in outpatients (P < 0.0001) and from 11 to 83 in inpatients (P < 0.0001) and those of the community-associated MRSA phenotype increased from 17 to 296 in outpatients (P < 0.0001) and from 71 to 486 in inpatients (P < 0.0001). When compared with single nucleotide polymorphism genotyping the AUS-2/3 like phenotype had a sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) for CC239 of 1 and 0.791 respectively, while the EMRSA-15 like phenotype had a sensitivity and PPV for CC22 of 0.903 and 0.774. PVL-positive CA-MRSA, predominantly ST93 and CC30, accounted for 60.8% of MRSA, while PVL-negative CA-MRSA, mainly CC5 and CC1, accounted for 21.4%. Conclusions The initially dominant healthcare-associated MRSA clone has been progressively replaced, mainly by four community-associated lineages.

An investigation of schizotypy in injecting amphetamine users

A fully dimensional view of psychiatric disorder conceptualises schizotypy as both a continuous personality trait and an underlying vulnerability to the development of psychotic illness. Such a model would predict that the structure of schizotypal traits would closely parallel the structure of schizophrenia or psychosis. This was investigated in injecting amphetamine users (N = 322), a clinical population who have high rates of acute psychotic episodes and subclinical schizotypal experiences. Schizotypy was assessed using the Oxford-Liverpool Inventory of Feelings and Experiences (O-LIFE), and psychotic symptoms were assessed using the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS). Using confirmatory factor analysis, O-LIFE subscale scores were mapped onto latent variables with their more clinical counterparts from the BPRS. A four-factor model comprising positive schizotypy, disorganisation, negative schizotypy, and disinhibition provided the best model fit, consistent with prior research into the structure of schizotypy. The model provided a good fit to the data, lending support to the theory that schizotypy and psychotic symptoms map onto common underlying dimensions.

French version of the Family Attitude Scale : psychometric properties and relation of attitudes to the respondent's psychiatric status

The Family Attitude Scale (FAS) is a self-report measure of critical or hostile attitudes and behaviors towards another family member, and demonstrates an ability to predict relapse in psychoses. Data are not currently available on a French version of the scale. The present study developed a French version of the FAS, using a large general population sample to test its internal structure, criterion validity and relationships with the respondents' symptoms and psychiatric diagnoses, and examined the reciprocity of FAS ratings by respondents and their partners. A total of 2072 adults from an urban population undertook a diagnostic interview and completed self-report measures, including an FAS about their partner. A subset of participants had partners who also completed the FAS. Confirmatory factor analyses revealed an excellent fit by a single-factor model, and the FAS demonstrated a strong association with dyadic adjustment. FAS scores of respondents were affected by their anxiety levels and mood, alcohol and anxiety diagnoses, and moderate reciprocity of attitudes and behaviors between the partners was seen. The French version of the FAS has similarly strong psychometric properties to the original English version. Future research should assess the ability of the French FAS to predict relapse of psychiatric disorders.