973 resultados para ARIMA Model
Resumo:
In situ FT-IR spectroscopy allows the methanol synthesis reaction to be investigated under actual industrial conditions of 503 K and 10 MPa. On Cu/SiO2 catalyst formate species were initially formed which were subsequently hydrogenated to methanol. During the reaction a steady state concentration of formate species persisted on the copper. Additionally, a small quantity of gaseous methane was produced. In contrast, the reaction of CO2 and H2 on ZnO/SiO2 catalyst only resulted in the formation of zinc formate species: no methanol was detected. The interaction of CO2 and H2 with Cu/ZnO/SiO2 catalyst gave formate species on both copper and zinc oxide. Methanol was again formed by the hydrogenation of copper formate species. Steady-state concentrations of copper formate existed under actual industrial reaction conditions, and copper formate is the pivotal intermediate for methanol synthesis. Collation of these results with previous data on copper-based methanol synthesis catalysts allowed the formulation of a reaction mechanism
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The reaction of CO2 and H2 with ZnO/SiO2 catalyst at 295 K gave predominantly hydrogencarbonate on zinc oxide and a small quantity of formate was evolved after heating at 393 K. Elevation of the reaction temperature to 503 K enhanced the rate of formation of zinc formate species. Significantly these formate species decomposed at 573 K almost entirely to CO2 and H2. Even after exposure of CO2-H2 or CO-CO2-H2 mixtures to highly defected ZnO/SiO2 catalyst, the formate species produced still decomposed to give CO2 and H2. It was concluded that carboxylate species which were formed at oxygen anion vacancies on polar Zn planes were not significantly hydrogenated to formate. Consequently it was proposed that the non-polar planes on zinc oxide contained sites which were specific for the synthesis of methanol. The interaction of CO2 and H2 with reduced Cu/ZnO/SiO2 catalyst at 393 K gave copper formate species in addition to substantial quantities of formate created at interfacial sites between copper and zinc oxide. It was deduced that interfacial formate species were produced from the hydrogenation of interfacial bidentate carbonate structures. The relevance of interfacial formate species in the methanol synthesis reaction is discussed. Experiments concerning the reaction of CO2-H2 with physical mixtures of Cu/SiO2 and ZnO/SiO2 gave results which were simply characteristic of the individual components. By careful consideration of previous data a detailed proposal regarding the role of spillover hydrogen is outlined. Admission of CO to a gaseous CO2-H2 feedstock resulted in a considerably diminished amount of formate species on copper. This was ascribed to a combination of over-reduction of the surface and site-blockage.
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Community support agencies routinely employ a web presence to provide information on their services. While this online information provision helps to increase an agency’s reach, this paper argues that it can be further extended by mapping relationships between services and by facilitating two-way communication and collaboration with local communities. We argue that emergent technologies, such as locative media and networking tools, can assist in harnessing this social capital. However, new applications must be designed in ways that both persuade and support community members to contribute information and support others in need. An analysis of the online presence of community service agencies and social benefit applications is presented against Fogg’s Behaviour Model. From this evaluation, design principles are proposed for developing new locative, collaborative online applications for social benefit.
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Background Selection of candidates for clinical psychology programmes is arguably the most important decision made in determining the clinical psychology workforce. However, there are few models to inform the development of selection tools to support selection procedures. The study, using a factor analytic structure, has operationalised the model predicting applicants' capabilities. Method Eighty-eight clinical applicants for entry into a postgraduate clinical psychology programme were assessed on a series of tasks measuring eight capabilities: guided reflection, communication skills, ethical decision making, writing, conceptual reasoning, empathy, and awareness of mind and self-observation. Results Factor analysis revealed three capabilities: labelled “awareness” accounting for 35.71% of variance; “reflection” accounting for 20.56%; and “reasoning” accounting for 18.24% of variance. Fourth year grade point average (GPA) did not correlate with performance on any of the selection capabilities other than a weak correlation with performance on the ethics capability. Conclusions Eight selection capabilities are identified for the selection of candidates independent of GPA. While the model is tentative, it is hoped that the findings will stimulate the development and validation of assessment procedures with good predictive validity which will benefit the training of clinical psychologists and, ultimately, effective service delivery.
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Currently pathological and illness-centric policy surrounds the evaluation of the health status of a person experiencing disability. In this research partnerships were built between disability service providers, community development organizations and disability arts organizations to build a translational evaluative methodology prior to implementation of an arts-based workshop that was embedded in a strengths-based approach to health and well-being. The model consisted of three foci: participation in a pre-designed drama-based workshop program; individualized assessment and evaluation of changing health status; and longitudinal analysis of participants changing health status in their public lives following the culmination of the workshop series. Participants (n = 15) were recruited through disability service providers and disability arts organizations to complete a 13-week workshop series and public performance. The study developed accumulative qualitative analysis tools and member-checking methods specific to the communication systems used by individual participants. Principle findings included increased confidence for verbal and non-verbal communicators; increased personal drive, ambition and goal-setting; increased arts-based skills including professional engagements as artists; demonstrated skills in communicating perceptions of health status to private and public spheres. Tangential positive observations were evident in the changing recreational, vocational and educational activities participants engaged with pre- and post- the workshop series; participants advocating for autonomous accommodation and health provision and changes in the disability service staff's culture. The research is an example of translational health methodologies in disability studies.
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Soil-based emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O), a well-known greenhouse gas, have been associated with changes in soil water-filled pore space (WFPS) and soil temperature in many previous studies. However, it is acknowledged that the environment-N2O relationship is complex and still relatively poorly unknown. In this article, we employed a Bayesian model selection approach (Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo) to develop a data-informed model of the relationship between daily N2O emissions and daily WFPS and soil temperature measurements between March 2007 and February 2009 from a soil under pasture in Queensland, Australia, taking seasonal factors and time-lagged effects into account. The model indicates a very strong relationship between a hybrid seasonal structure and daily N2O emission, with the latter substantially increased in summer. Given the other variables in the model, daily soil WFPS, lagged by a week, had a negative influence on daily N2O; there was evidence of a nonlinear positive relationship between daily soil WFPS and daily N2O emission; and daily soil temperature tended to have a linear positive relationship with daily N2O emission when daily soil temperature was above a threshold of approximately 19°C. We suggest that this flexible Bayesian modeling approach could facilitate greater understanding of the shape of the covariate-N2O flux relation and detection of effect thresholds in the natural temporal variation of environmental variables on N2O emission.
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Double-pass counter flow v-grove collector is considered one of the most efficient solar air-collectors. In this design of the collector, the inlet air initially flows at the top part of the collector and changes direction once it reaches the end of the collector and flows below the collector to the outlet. A mathematical model is developed for this type of collector and simulation is carried out using MATLAB programme. The simulation results were verified with three distinguished research results and it was found that the simulation has the ability to predict the performance of the air collector accurately as proven by the comparison of experimental data with simulation. The difference between the predicted and experimental results is, at maximum, approximately 7% which is within the acceptable limit considering some uncertainties in the input parameter values to allow comparison. A parametric study was performed and it was found that solar radiation, inlet air temperature, flow rate and length has a significant effect on the efficiency of the air collector. Additionally, the results are compared with single flow V-groove collector.
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Most studies examining the temperature–mortality association in a city used temperatures from one site or the average from a network of sites. This may cause measurement error as temperature varies across a city due to effects such as urban heat islands. We examined whether spatiotemporal models using spatially resolved temperatures produced different associations between temperature and mortality compared with time series models that used non-spatial temperatures. We obtained daily mortality data in 163 areas across Brisbane city, Australia from 2000 to 2004. We used ordinary kriging to interpolate spatial temperature variation across the city based on 19 monitoring sites. We used a spatiotemporal model to examine the impact of spatially resolved temperatures on mortality. Also, we used a time series model to examine non-spatial temperatures using a single site and the average temperature from three sites. We used squared Pearson scaled residuals to compare model fit. We found that kriged temperatures were consistent with observed temperatures. Spatiotemporal models using kriged temperature data yielded slightly better model fit than time series models using a single site or the average of three sites' data. Despite this better fit, spatiotemporal and time series models produced similar associations between temperature and mortality. In conclusion, time series models using non-spatial temperatures were equally good at estimating the city-wide association between temperature and mortality as spatiotemporal models.
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Researchers have found that transformational leadership is related to positive outcomes in educational institutions. Hence, it is important to explore constructs that may predict leadership style in order to identify potential transformational leaders in assessment and selection procedures. Several studies in non-educational settings have found that emotional intelligence is a useful predictor of transformational leadership, but these studies have generally lacked methodological rigor and contextual relevance. This project, set in Australian educational institutions, employed a more rigorous methodology to answer the question: to what extent is the Mayer and Salovey (1997) model of emotional intelligence a useful predictor of leadership style and perceived leadership outcomes? The project was designed to move research in the field forward by using valid and reliable instruments, controlling for other predictors, obtaining an adequately sized sample of current leaders and collecting multiple ratings of their leadership behaviours. The study (N = 144 leaders and 432 raters) results indicated that emotional intelligence was not a useful predictor of leadership style and perceived leadership outcomes. In contrast, several of the other predictors in the study were found to predict leadership style.
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The Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) station is the interface between passengers and services. The station is crucial to line operation as it is typically the only location where buses can pass each other. Congestion may occur here when buses maneuvering into and out of the platform lane interfere with bus flow, or when a queue of buses forms upstream of the platform lane blocking the passing lane. Further, some systems include operation where express buses do not observe the station, resulting in a proportion of non-stopping buses. It is important to understand the operation of the station under this type of operation and its effect on BRT line capacity. This study uses microscopic traffic simulation modeling to treat the BRT station operation and to analyze the relationship between station bus capacity and BRT line bus capacity. First, the simulation model is developed for the limit state scenario and then a statistical model is defined and calibrated for a specified range of controlled scenarios of dwell time characteristics. A field survey was conducted to verify the parameters such as dwell time, clearance time and coefficient of variation of dwell time to obtain relevant station bus capacity. The proposed model for BRT bus capacity provides a better understanding of BRT line capacity and is useful to transit authorities in BRT planning, design and operation.
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Pesticides used in agricultural systems must be applied in economically viable and environmentally sensitive ways, and this often requires expensive field trials on spray deposition and retention by plant foliage. Computational models to describe whether a spray droplet sticks (adheres), bounces or shatters on impact, and if any rebounding parent or shatter daughter droplets are recaptured, would provide an estimate of spray retention and thereby act as a useful guide prior to any field trials. Parameter-driven interactive software has been implemented to enable the end-user to study and visualise droplet interception and impaction on a single, horizontal leaf. Living chenopodium, wheat and cotton leaves have been scanned to capture the surface topography and realistic virtual leaf surface models have been generated. Individual leaf models have then been subjected to virtual spray droplets and predictions made of droplet interception with the virtual plant leaf. Thereafter, the impaction behaviour of the droplets and the subsequent behaviour of any daughter droplets, up until re-capture, are simulated to give the predicted total spray retention by the leaf. A series of critical thresholds for the stick, bounce, and shatter elements in the impaction process have been developed for different combinations of formulation, droplet size and velocity, and leaf surface characteristics to provide this output. The results show that droplet properties, spray formulations and leaf surface characteristics all influence the predicted amount of spray retained on a horizontal leaf surface. Overall the predicted spray retention increases as formulation surface tension, static contact angle, droplet size and velocity decreases. Predicted retention on cotton is much higher than on chenopodium. The average predicted retention on a single horizontal leaf across all droplet size, velocity and formulations scenarios tested, is 18, 30 and 85% for chenopodium, wheat and cotton, respectively.
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Introduction: Apoptosis is the final destiny of many cells in the body, though this process has been observed in some pathological processes. One of these pathological processes is femoral head non-traumatic osteonecrosis. Among many pro/anti-apoptotic factors, nitric oxide has recently been an area of further interest. Osteocyte apoptosis and its relation to pro-apoptotic action invite further research, and the inducible form of nitric oxide synthase (iNOS)—which produces a high concentration of nitric oxide—has been flagged. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of hyperbaric oxygen (HBO) and inducible NOS suppressor (Aminoguanidine) in prevention of femoral head osteonecrosis in an experimental model of osteonecrosis in spontaneous hypertensive rats (SHRs). Methods: After animal ethic approval 34 SHR rats were divided into four groups. Ten rats were allocated to the control group without any treatment, and eight rats were allocated to three treatment groups namely: HBO, Aminoguanidine (AMG), and the combination of HBO and AMG treatments (HBO+AMG). The HBO group received 250 kPa of oxygen via hyperbaric chamber for 30 days started at their 5th week of life; the AMG group received 1mg/ml of AMG in drinking water from the fifth week till the 17th week of life; and the last group received a combination of these treatments. Rats were sacrificed at the end of the 17th week of life and both femurs were analysed for evidence of osteonecrosis using Micro CT scan and H&E staining. Also, osteocyte apoptosis and the presence of two different forms of NOS (inducible (iNOS) and endothelial (eNOS)) were analysed by immunostaining and apoptosis staining (Hoechst and TUNEL). Results: Bone morphology of metaphyseal and epiphyseal area of all rats were investigated and analysed. Micro CT findings revealed significantly higher mean fractional trabecular bone volume (FBV) of metaphyseal area in untreated SHRs compared with all other treatments (HBO, P<0.05, HBO+AMG, P<0.005, and AMG P<0.001). Bone surface to volume ratio also significantly increased with HBO+AMG and AMG treatments when compared with the control group (18.7 Vs 20.8, P<0.05, and 18.7 Vs 21.1, P<0.05). Epiphyseal mean FBV did not change significantly among groups. In the metaphyseal area, trabecular thickness and numbers significantly decreased with AMG treatment, while trabecular separation significantly increased with both AMG and HBO+AMG treatment. Histological ratio of no ossification and osteonecrosis was 37.5%, 43.7%, 18.7% and 6.2% of control, HBO, HBO+AMG and AMG groups respectively with only significant difference observed between HBO and AMG treatment (P<0.01). High concentration of iNOS was observed in the region of osteonecrosis while there was no evidence of eNOS activity around that region. In comparison with the control group, the ratio of osteocyte apoptosis significantly reduced in AMG treatment (P<0.005). We also observed significantly fewer apoptotic osteocytes in AMG group comparing with HBO treatment (P<0.05). Conclusion: None of our treatments prevents osteonecrosis at the histological or micro CT scan level. High concentration of iNOS in the region of osteonecrosis and significant reduction of osteocyte apoptosis with AMG treatment were supportive of iNOS modulating osteocyte apoptosis in SHRs.
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The generational approach to conceptualising first year student learning behaviour has made a useful contribution to understanding student engagement. It has an explicit focus on student behaviour and we suggest that a capability maturity model interpretation may provide a complementary extension of that understanding as it builds on the generational approach by allowing an assessment of institutional capability to initiate, plan, manage, evaluate and review institutional student engagement practices. The development of a Student Engagement, Success and Retention Maturity Model (SESR-MM) is discussed along with its application in an Australian higher education institution. In this case study, the model identified first, second and third generation approaches and in addition achieved a ‘complementary extension’ of the generational approach, building on it by identifying additional practices not normally considered within the generational concept and indicating the capability of the institution to provide and implement the practices.