Discovering future disaster management capability needs using scenario planning

In recent years disaster risk reduction efforts have focused on disturbances ranging from climate variability, seismic hazards, geo-political instability and public and animal health crises. These factors combined with uncertainty derived from inter-dependencies within and across systems of critical infrastructure create significant problems of governance for the private and public sector alike. The potential for rapid spread of impacts, geographically and virtually, can render a comprehensive understanding of disaster response and recovery needs and risk mitigation issues beyond the grasp of competent authority. Because of such cascading effects communities and governments at local and state-levels are unlikely to face single incidents but rather series of systemic impacts: often appearing concurrently. A further point to note is that both natural and technological hazards can act directly on socio-technical systems as well as being propagated by them: as network events. Such events have been categorised as ‘outside of the box,’ ‘too fast,’ and ‘too strange’ (Lagadec, 2004). Emergent complexities in linked systems can make disaster effects difficult to anticipate and recovery efforts difficult to plan for. Beyond the uncertainties of real world disasters, that might be called familiar or even regular, can we safely assume that the generic capability we use now will suit future disaster contexts? This paper presents initial scoping of research funded by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre seeking to define future capability needs of disaster management organisations. It explores challenges to anticipating the needs of representative agencies and groups active in before, during and after phases of emergency and disaster situations using capability deficit assessments and scenario assessment.

Urban public space and the marginalisation of children and young people

In the 21st century city, public space for a range of users, but especially children and young people, has come under threat. Watson proposed that “public space itself has come under attack from several directions-thematisation, enclosure into malls and other controlled spaces, and privatisation, or from urban planning and design interventions to erase its uniqueness”. Largely as a result of these trends, Scott observed that “young urbanites form a marginalised age class movement is restricted, out of fear and distrust, within aims to protect, monitored by city surveillance methods within the security-obsessed fabric”. The use of public space by children and young people is a contentious issue in a number of countries and a range of measures deployed to control public space curtail the rights of children and young people to claim the space for their use through curfews, oppressive camera surveillance and at times, the unwarranted attentions of police and private security personnel.

Links between unlicensed and unregistered driving (Data analysis). Report to Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads

There is a current lack of understanding regarding the use of unregistered vehicles on public roads and road-related areas, and the links between the driving of unregistered vehicles and a range of dangerous driving behaviours. This report documents the findings of data analysis conducted to investigate the links between unlicensed driving and the driving of unregistered vehicles, and is an important initial undertaking into understanding these behaviours. This report examines de-identified data from two sources: crash data; and offence data. The data was extracted from the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads (TMR) databases and covered the period from 2003 to 2008.

Melanoma cell colony expansion parameters revealed by approximate Bayesian computation

In vitro studies and mathematical models are now being widely used to study the underlying mechanisms driving the expansion of cell colonies. This can improve our understanding of cancer formation and progression. Although much progress has been made in terms of developing and analysing mathematical models, far less progress has been made in terms of understanding how to estimate model parameters using experimental in vitro image-based data. To address this issue, a new approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) algorithm is proposed to estimate key parameters governing the expansion of melanoma cell (MM127) colonies, including cell diffusivity, D, cell proliferation rate, λ, and cell-to-cell adhesion, q, in two experimental scenarios, namely with and without a chemical treatment to suppress cell proliferation. Even when little prior biological knowledge about the parameters is assumed, all parameters are precisely inferred with a small posterior coefficient of variation, approximately 2–12%. The ABC analyses reveal that the posterior distributions of D and q depend on the experimental elapsed time, whereas the posterior distribution of λ does not. The posterior mean values of D and q are in the ranges 226–268 µm2h−1, 311–351 µm2h−1 and 0.23–0.39, 0.32–0.61 for the experimental periods of 0–24 h and 24–48 h, respectively. Furthermore, we found that the posterior distribution of q also depends on the initial cell density, whereas the posterior distributions of D and λ do not. The ABC approach also enables information from the two experiments to be combined, resulting in greater precision for all estimates of D and λ.

Rethinking Disney: Private Control, Public Dimensions

Mike Budd and Max H. Kirsch, eds. Rethinking Disney: Private Control, Public Dimensions. Middletown, CT: Wesleyan University Press, 2005. ix + 341pp. $27.95

Initial design and physical characterization of a polymeric device for osmosis-driven delayed burst delivery of vaccines

Achieving the combination of delayed and immediate release of a vaccine from a delivery device without applying external triggers remains elusive in implementing single administration vaccination strategies. Here a means of vaccine delivery is presented, which exploits osmosis to trigger delayed burst release of an active compound. Poly(-caprolactone) capsules of 2 mm diameter were prepared by dip-coating, and their burst pressure and release characteristics were evaluated. Burst pressures (in bar) increased with wall thickness (t in mm) following Pburst = 131.t + 3.4 (R2 = 0.93). Upon immersion in PBS, glucose solution-filled capsules burst after 8.7 ± 2.9 days. Copolymers of hydrophobic  -caprolactone and hydrophilic polyethylene glycol were synthesized and their physico-chemical properties were assessed. With increasing hydrophilic content, the copolymer capsules showed increased water uptake rates and maximum weight increase, while the burst release was earlier: 5.6 ± 2.0 days and 1.9 ± 0.2 days for 5 and 10 wt% polyethylene glycol, respectively. The presented approach enables the reproducible preparation of capsules with high versatility in materials and properties, while these vaccine delivery vehicles can be prepared separately from, and independently of the active compound.

Public private partnership infrastructure delivery: Benefits and costs for society

This research provides additional knowledge on the benefits and costs to society, in particular of road transport procured through Public-Private Partnership (PPP) arrangements. Currently, the public sector comparator (PSC) and cost-benefit analysis (CBA) used to evaluate and measure the benefits and costs of PPP are limited in their capacity to predict and forecast long-term events. PPP is attractive to governments due to the non-upfront payment, perceived value for money, and risk allocation and transfer to the private investor. However, public sector remains the guarantor, and under-writer of the private investor's loan from financial institutions and other voluntary risks which are unlimited to future compensatory claims. The new knowledge from this research is the introduction of a framework capable of evaluating, and measuring the associated PPP benefits, as well as the costs, effects, and impacts to society which are protracted and sporadic by nature.

Public and private mitigation for natural disasters in Japan

An increasing number of studies analyze the relationship between natural disaster damage and income levels, but they do not consider the distinction between public and private disaster mitigation. This paper empirically distinguishes these two types of mitigation using Japanese prefectural panel data from 1975 to 2007. Our results show that public mitigation rather than private mitigation has contributed to mitigating the total damage resulting from natural disasters. Our estimation of cost-benefit ratios for each prefecture confirms that the mitigation efforts of urban prefectures are less effective than those of rural prefectures in focusing on both large and frequent/small disasters. Hence, urban prefectures need to reassess their public mitigation measures. Furthermore, to lessen the damage resulting from extreme catastrophes, policy makers are required to invest in improved mitigation infrastructures when faced with a high probability of disasters.

How European public sector agencies innovate: The use of bottom-up, policy-dependent and knowledge-scanning innovation methods

Factor and cluster analysis are used to identify different methods that public sector agencies in Europeuse to innovate, based on data from a 2010 survey of 3273 agencies. The analyses identify three types ofinnovative agencies: bottom-up, knowledge-scanning, and policy-dependent. The distribution of bottom-up agencies across European countries is positively correlated with average per capita incomes while thedistribution of knowledge-scanning agencies is negatively correlated with income. In contrast, there isno consistent pattern by country in the distribution of policy-dependent agencies. Regression resultsthat control for agency characteristics find that innovation methods are significantly correlated with thebeneficial outcomes of innovation, with bottom-up and knowledge-scanning agencies out-performingpolicy-dependent agencies.

Redefining dermatologists’ role in skin cancer early detection and follow-up care

Early diagnosis of melanoma leads to the best prognosis for patients and may be more likely achieved when those who are at high risk for melanoma undergo regular and systematic monitoring. However, many people rarely or never see a dermatologist. Risk prediction models (recently reviewed by Usher-Smith et al ) could assist to triage people into preventive care appropriate for their risk profile. Most risk prediction models contain measures of phenotype including skin, eye and hair colour as well as genetic mutations. Almost all also contain the number and size of naevi, as well as the presence of naevi with atypical features which are independently associated with melanoma risk. In the absence of formal population-based screening programs for melanoma in most countries worldwide, people with high risk phenotypes may need to consider regular monitoring or self-monitoring of their naevi , especially since the vast majority of melanomas are found by people themselves or their friend and relatives. Another group of patients that will require regular monitoring are patients who have been successfully treated for their first melanoma, whose risk to develop a second melanoma is greatly increased . In a US study of 89,515 melanoma survivors those with a previous diagnosis of melanoma had a 9-fold increased risk of developing subsequent melanoma compared with the general population, equating to a rate of 3.76 per 1000 person-years, while in an Australian study, risk of subsequent melanoma was 6 per 1000 person-years. Regular follow-up is therefore essential for melanoma survivors, especially during the first few years after initial melanoma diagnosis.

Rediscovering law students as citizens: Critical thinking and the public value of legal education

In a series of publications over the last decade, Australian National University Professor Margaret Thornton has documented a disturbing change in the nature of legal education. This body of work culminates in a recently published book based on interviews with 145 legal academics in Australia, the United Kingdom, New Zealand and Canada. In it, Thornton describes a feeling of widespread unease among legal academics that society, government, university administrators and students themselves are moving away from viewing legal education as a public good which benefits both students and society. Instead, legal education is increasingly being viewed as a purely private good, for consumption by the student in the quest for individual career enhancement.

Person–organization fit and public service motivation in the context of change

This study examines public sector change, motivation and person–organization (P–O) fit in a stress context. The results provide empirical evidence that change initiatives produce change-induced stressors. However, change processes, including participation in change decision-making and the provision of change information, increase public service motivation, reduce change-induced stressors and ultimately improve P–O fit and job satisfaction. The results also depict that, in the context of change, public service motivation positively influences job satisfaction, with this relationship partially mediated by P–O fit. Implications for New Public Management and the importance of change processes for reducing workplace stress are discussed.

A new public health context to understand male sex work

Background Researching male sex work offers insight into the sexual lives of men and women while developing a more realistic appreciation for the changing issues associated with male sex work. This type of research is important because it not only reflects a growing and diversifying consumer demand for male sex work, but also because it enables the construction of knowledge that is up-to-date with changing ideas around sex and sexualities. Discussion This paper discusses a range of issues emerging in the male sex industry. Notably, globalisation and technology have contributed to the normalisation of male sex work and reshaped the landscape in which the male sex industry operates. As part of this discussion, we review STI and HIV rates among male sex workers at a global level, which are widely disparate and geographically contextual, with rates of HIV among male sex workers ranging from 0% in some areas to 50% in others. The Internet has reshaped the way that male sex workers and clients connect and has been identified as a useful space for safer sex messages and research that seeks out hidden or commonly excluded populations. Future directions We argue for a public health context that recognises the emerging and changing nature of male sex work, which means programs and policies that are appropriate for this population group. Online communities relating to male sex work are important avenues for safer sexual messages and unique opportunities to reach often excluded sub-populations of both clients and male sex workers. The changing structure and organisation of male sex work alongside rapidly changing cultural, academic and medical discourses provide new insight but also new challenges to how we conceive the sexualities of men and male sex workers. Public health initiatives must reflect upon and incorporate this knowledge.

A values analysis of attitudes towards the use of law to prevent obesity: How might these values inform public health law theory and practice?

This thesis asks whether values, like government duty, individual responsibility, community and social justice, influence the way that scholars and research participants think about the use of law to prevent obesity. It explores the way participants speak about values when expressing their support for or against a variety of government regulatory interventions, including taxation, food labelling reforms and advertising restrictions. This research contributes to our understanding of theories of public health law and public health ethics. The qualitative findings also have implications for policy development, in advocating for a variety of government interventions to prevent obesity.