An approximate Bayesian computation approach for estimating parameters of complex environmental processes in a cellular automata

Modelling an environmental process involves creating a model structure and parameterising the model with appropriate values to accurately represent the process. Determining accurate parameter values for environmental systems can be challenging. Existing methods for parameter estimation typically make assumptions regarding the form of the Likelihood, and will often ignore any uncertainty around estimated values. This can be problematic, however, particularly in complex problems where Likelihoods may be intractable. In this paper we demonstrate an Approximate Bayesian Computational method for the estimation of parameters of a stochastic CA. We use as an example a CA constructed to simulate a range expansion such as might occur after a biological invasion, making parameter estimates using only count data such as could be gathered from field observations. We demonstrate ABC is a highly useful method for parameter estimation, with accurate estimates of parameters that are important for the management of invasive species such as the intrinsic rate of increase and the point in a landscape where a species has invaded. We also show that the method is capable of estimating the probability of long distance dispersal, a characteristic of biological invasions that is very influential in determining spread rates but has until now proved difficult to estimate accurately.

Reduced variance in monozygous twins for multiple MR parameters : implications for disease studies and the genetic basis of brain structure

Twin studies offer the opportunity to determine the relative contribution of genes versus environment in traits of interest. Here, we investigate the extent to which variance in brain structure is reduced in monozygous twins with identical genetic make-up. We investigate whether using twins as compared to a control population reduces variability in a number of common magnetic resonance (MR) structural measures, and we investigate the location of areas under major genetic influences. This is fundamental to understanding the benefit of using twins in studies where structure is the phenotype of interest. Twenty-three pairs of healthy MZ twins were compared to matched control pairs. Volume, T2 and diffusion MR imaging were performed as well as spectroscopy (MRS). Images were compared using (i) global measures of standard deviation and effect size, (ii) voxel-based analysis of similarity and (iii) intra-pair correlation. Global measures indicated a consistent increase in structural similarity in twins. The voxel-based and correlation analyses indicated a widespread pattern of increased similarity in twin pairs, particularly in frontal and temporal regions. The areas of increased similarity were most widespread for the diffusion trace and least widespread for T2. MRS showed consistent reduction in metabolite variation that was significant in the temporal lobe N-acetylaspartate (NAA). This study has shown the distribution and magnitude of reduced variability in brain volume, diffusion, T2 and metabolites in twins. The data suggest that evaluation of twins discordant for disease is indeed a valid way to attribute genetic or environmental influences to observed abnormalities in patients since evidence is provided for the underlying assumption of decreased variability in twins.

Optimisation of process parameters for the removal of hydroxycinnamic acids in sugar solutions

Colour is one of the most important parameters in sugar quality and its presence in raw sugar plays a key role in the marketing strategy of sugar industries worldwide. This study investigated the degradation of a mixture of colour precursors using the Fenton oxidation process. These colour precursors are caffeic acid, p–coumaric acid and ferulic acid, which are present in cane juice. Results showed that with a Fe(II) to H2O2 molar ratio of 1:15 in an aqueous system at 25 °C, 77% of the total phenolic acid content was removed at pH 4.72. However, in a synthetic juice solution which contained 13 mass % sucrose (35 °C, pH 5.4), only 60% of the total phenolic acid content was removed.

Effect Of changes in sodium intake on cell transport parameters

Changing sodium intake from 70-200 mmol/day elevates blood pressure in normotensive volunteers by 6/4 mmHg. Older people, people with reduced renal function on a low sodium diet and people with a family history of hypertension are more likely to show this effect. The rise in blood pressure was associated with a fall in plasma volume suggesting that plasma volume changes do not initiate hypertension. In normotensive individuals the most common abnormality in membrane sodium transport induced by an extra sodium load was an increased permeability of the red cell to sodium. Some normotensive individuals also had an increase in the level of a plasma inhibitor that inhibited Na-K ATPase. These individuals also appeared to have a rise in blood pressure. Sodium intake and blood pressure are related. The relationship differs in different people and is probably controlled by the genetically inherited capacity of systems involved in membrane sodium transport.

Investigating the potential value of individual parameters of histological grading systems in a sheep model of cartilage damage : the modified Mankin method

A total histological grade does not necessarily distinguish between different manifestations of cartilage damage or degeneration. An accurate and reliable histological assessment method is required to separate normal and pathological tissue within a joint during treatment of degenerative joint conditions and to sub-classify the latter in meaningful ways. The Modified Mankin method may be adaptable for this purpose. We investigated how much detail may be lost by assigning one composite score/grade to represent different degenerative components of the osteoarthritic condition. We used four ovine injury models (sham surgery, anterior cruciate ligament/medial collateral ligament instability, simulated anatomic anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction and meniscal removal) to induce different degrees and potentially 'types' (mechanisms) of osteoarthritis. Articular cartilage was systematically harvested, prepared for histological examination and graded in a blinded fashion using a Modified Mankin grading method. Results showed that the possible permutations of cartilage damage were significant and far more varied than the current intended use that histological grading systems allow. Of 1352 cartilage specimens graded, 234 different manifestations of potential histological damage were observed across 23 potential individual grades of the Modified Mankin grading method. The results presented here show that current composite histological grading may contain additional information that could potentially discern different stages or mechanisms of cartilage damage and degeneration in a sheep model. This approach may be applicable to other grading systems.

Sensitivity of the NMR density matrix to pulse sequence parameters : a simplified analytic approach

We present a formalism for the analysis of sensitivity of nuclear magnetic resonance pulse sequences to variations of pulse sequence parameters, such as radiofrequency pulses, gradient pulses or evolution delays. The formalism enables the calculation of compact, analytic expressions for the derivatives of the density matrix and the observed signal with respect to the parameters varied. The analysis is based on two constructs computed in the course of modified density-matrix simulations: the error interrogation operators and error commutators. The approach presented is consequently named the Error Commutator Formalism (ECF). It is used to evaluate the sensitivity of the density matrix to parameter variation based on the simulations carried out for the ideal parameters, obviating the need for finite-difference calculations of signal errors. The ECF analysis therefore carries a computational cost comparable to a single density-matrix or product-operator simulation. Its application is illustrated using a number of examples from basic NMR spectroscopy. We show that the strength of the ECF is its ability to provide analytic insights into the propagation of errors through pulse sequences and the behaviour of signal errors under phase cycling. Furthermore, the approach is algorithmic and easily amenable to implementation in the form of a programming code. It is envisaged that it could be incorporated into standard NMR product-operator simulation packages.

Corporate social responsibility and the parameters of dialogue with vulnerable others

This article presents a case study of corporate dialogue with vulnerable others. Dialogue with marginalized external groups is increasingly presented in the business literature as the key to making corporate social responsibility possible in particular through corporate learning. Corporate public communications at the same time promote community engagement as a core aspect of corporate social responsibility. This article examines the possibilities for and conditions underpinning corporate dialogue with marginalized stakeholders as occurred around the unexpected and sudden closure in January 2009 of the AU$2.2 billion BHP Billiton Ravensthorpe Nickel mine in rural Western Australia. In doing so we draw on John Roberts’ notion of dialogue with vulnerable others, and apply a discourse analysis approach to data spanning corporate public communications and interviews with residents affected by the decision to close the mine. In presenting this case study we contribute to the as yet limited organizational research concerned directly with marginalized stakeholders and argue that corporate social responsibility discourse and vulnerable other dialogue not only affirms the primacy of business interests but also co-opts vulnerable others in the pursuit of these interests. In conclusion we consider case study implications for critical understandings of corporate dialogue with vulnerable others.

Comparison and modification of car following models toward a more accurate microscopic simulation parameters reproduction

Traffic safety studies demand more than what current micro-simulation models can provide as they presume that all drivers of motor vehicles exhibit safe behaviours. Several car-following models are used in various micro-simulation models. This research compares the mainstream car following models’ capabilities of emulating precise driver behaviour parameters such as headways and Time to Collisions. The comparison firstly illustrates which model is more robust in the metric reproduction. Secondly, the study conducted a series of sensitivity tests to further explore the behaviour of each model. Based on the outcome of these two steps exploration of the models, a modified structure and parameters adjustment for each car-following model is proposed to simulate more realistic vehicle movements, particularly headways and Time to Collision, below a certain critical threshold. NGSIM vehicle trajectory data is used to evaluate the modified models performance to assess critical safety events within traffic flow. The simulation tests outcomes indicate that the proposed modified models produce better frequency of critical Time to Collision than the generic models, while the improvement on the headway is not significant. The outcome of this paper facilitates traffic safety assessment using microscopic simulation.

Average structure of an An (sub 48) plagioclase from the Hogarth Ranges

The average structure (CI) of a volcanic plagioclase megacryst with composition Ano, from the Hogarth Ranges, Australia, has been determined using three-dimensional, singlecrystal neutron and X-ray diffraction data. Least squaresr efinements, incorporating anisotropic thermal motion of all atoms and an extinction correction, resulted in weighted R factors (based on intensities) of 0.076 and 0.056, respectively, for the neutron and X-ray data. Very weak e reflections could be detected in long-exposure X-ray and electron diffraction photographs of this crystal, but the refined average structure is believed to be unaffected by the presence of such a weak superstructure. The ratio of the scattering power of Na to that of Ca is different for X ray and neutron radiation, and this radiation-dependence of scattering power has been used to determine the distribution of Na and Ca over a split-atom M site (two sites designated M' and M") in this Ano, plagioclase. Relative peak-height ratios M'/M", revealed in difference Fourier sections calculated from neutron and X-ray data, formed the basis for the cation-distribution analysis. As neutron and X-ray data sets were directly compared in this analysis, it was important that systematic bias between refined neutron and X-ray positional parameters could be demonstrated to be absent. In summary, with an M-site model constrained only by the electron-microprobedetermined bulk composition of the crystal, the following values were obtained for the M-site occupanciesN: ar, : 0.29(7),N ar. : 0.23(7),C ar, : 0.15(4),a nd Car" : 0.33(4). These results indicate that restrictive assumptions about M sites, on which previous plagioclase refinements have been based, are not applicable to this Ano, and possibly not to the entire compositional range. T-site ordering determined by (T-O) bond-length variation-t,o : 0.51(l), trm = t2o = t2m = 0.32(l)-is weak, as might be expectedf rom the volcanic origin of this megacryst.

Kaolinite particle sizes in the <2 µM range using laser scattering

The Clay Minerals Society Source Clay kaolinites, Georgia KGa-1 and KGa-2, have been subjected to particle size determinations by 1) conventional sedimentation methods, 2) electron microscopy and image analysis, and 3) laser scattering using improved algorithms for the interaction of light with small particles. Particle shape, size distribution, and crystallinity vary considerably for each kaolinite. Replicate analyses of separated size fractions showed that in the <2 µm range, the sedimentation/centrifugation method of Tanner and Jackson (1947) is reproducible for different kaolinite types and that the calculated size ranges are in reasonable agreement with the size bins estimated from laser scattering. Particle sizes determined by laser scattering must be calculated using Mie theory when the dominant particle size is less than ∼5 µm. Based on this study of two well-known and structurally different kaolinites, laser scattering, with improved data reduction algorithms that include Mie theory, should be considered an internally consistent and rapid technique for clay particle sizing.

A multivariate approach to the identification of surrogate parameters for heavy metals in stormwater

Stormwater is a potential and readily available alternative source for potable water in urban areas. However, its direct use is severely constrained by the presence of toxic pollutants, such as heavy metals (HMs). The presence of HMs in stormwater is of concern because of their chronic toxicity and persistent nature. In addition to human health impacts, metals can contribute to adverse ecosystem health impact on receiving waters. Therefore, the ability to predict the levels of HMs in stormwater is crucial for monitoring stormwater quality and for the design of effective treatment systems. Unfortunately, the current laboratory methods for determining HM concentrations are resource intensive and time consuming. In this paper, applications of multivariate data analysis techniques are presented to identify potential surrogate parameters which can be used to determine HM concentrations in stormwater. Accordingly, partial least squares was applied to identify a suite of physicochemical parameters which can serve as indicators of HMs. Datasets having varied characteristics, such as land use and particle size distribution of solids, were analyzed to validate the efficacy of the influencing parameters. Iron, manganese, total organic carbon, and inorganic carbon were identified as the predominant parameters that correlate with the HM concentrations. The practical extension of the study outcomes to urban stormwater management is also discussed.

Calculation of engine parameters using reconfigurable hardware

The feasibility of real-time calculation of parameters for an internal combustion engine via reconfigurable hardware implementation is investigated as an alternative to software computation. A detailed in-hardware field programmable gate array (FPGA)-based design is developed and evaluated using input crank angle and in-cylinder pressure data from fully instrumented diesel engines in the QUT Biofuel Engine Research Facility (BERF). Results indicate the feasibility of employing a hardware-based implementation for real-time processing for speeds comparable to the data sampling rate currently used in the facility, with acceptably low level of discrepancies between hardware and software-based calculation of key engine parameters.

Near infrared (NIR) absorption spectra correlates with subchondral bone micro-CT parameters in osteoarthritic rat models

Determining the properties and integrity of subchondral bone in the developmental stages of osteoarthritis, especially in a form that can facilitate real-time characterization for diagnostic and decision-making purposes, is still a matter for research and development. This paper presents relationships between near infrared absorption spectra and properties of subchondral bone obtained from 3 models of osteoarthritic degeneration induced in laboratory rats via: (i) menisectomy (MSX); (ii) anterior cruciate ligament transaction (ACL); and (iii) intra-articular injection of mono-ido-acetate (1 mg) (MIA), in the right knee joint, with 12 rats per model group (N = 36). After 8 weeks, the animals were sacrificed and knee joints were collected. A custom-made diffuse reflectance NIR probe of diameter 5 mm was placed on the tibial surface and spectral data were acquired from each specimen in the wavenumber range 4000–12 500 cm− 1. After spectral acquisition, micro computed tomography (micro-CT) was performed on the samples and subchondral bone parameters namely: bone volume (BV) and bone mineral density (BMD) were extracted from the micro-CT data. Statistical correlation was then conducted between these parameters and regions of the near infrared spectra using multivariate techniques including principal component analysis (PCA), discriminant analysis (DA), and partial least squares (PLS) regression. Statistically significant linear correlations were found between the near infrared absorption spectra and subchondral bone BMD (R2 = 98.84%) and BV (R2 = 97.87%). In conclusion, near infrared spectroscopic probing can be used to detect, qualify and quantify changes in the composition of the subchondral bone, and could potentially assist in distinguishing healthy from OA bone as demonstrated with our laboratory rat models.