A comparison of alternative bankruptcy prediction models

Early models of bankruptcy prediction employed financial ratios drawn from pre-bankruptcy financial statements and performed well both in-sample and out-of-sample. Since then there has been an ongoing effort in the literature to develop models with even greater predictive performance. A significant innovation in the literature was the introduction into bankruptcy prediction models of capital market data such as excess stock returns and stock return volatility, along with the application of the Black–Scholes–Merton option-pricing model. In this note, we test five key bankruptcy models from the literature using an upto- date data set and find that they each contain unique information regarding the probability of bankruptcy but that their performance varies over time. We build a new model comprising key variables from each of the five models and add a new variable that proxies for the degree of diversification within the firm. The degree of diversification is shown to be negatively associated with the risk of bankruptcy. This more general model outperforms the existing models in a variety of in-sample and out-of-sample tests.

Objectifying early-number : a visual nomenclature to express mathematical domain knowledge

To address issues of divisive ideologies in the Mathematics Education community and to subsequently advance educational practice, an alternative theoretical framework and operational model is proposed which represents a consilience of constructivist learning theories whilst acknowledging the objective but improvable nature of domain knowledge. Based upon Popper’s three-world model of knowledge, the proposed theory supports the differentiation and explicit modelling of both shared domain knowledge and idiosyncratic personal understanding using a visual nomenclature. The visual nomenclature embodies Piaget’s notion of reflective abstraction and so may support an individual’s experience-based transformation of personal understanding with regards to shared domain knowledge. Using the operational model and visual nomenclature, seminal literature regarding early-number counting and addition was analysed and described. Exemplars of the resultant visual artefacts demonstrate the proposed theory’s viability as a tool with which to characterise the reflective abstraction-based organisation of a domain’s shared knowledge. Utilising such a description of knowledge, future research needs to consider the refinement of the operational model and visual nomenclature to include the analysis, description and scaffolded transformation of personal understanding. A detailed model of knowledge and understanding may then underpin the future development of educational software tools such as computer-mediated teaching and learning environments.

Investigation of the effect of organics on the water uptake of marine aerosols

Water uptake refers to the ability of atmospheric particles to take up water vapour from the surrounding atmosphere. This is an important property that affects particle size and phase and therefore influences many characteristics of aerosols relevant to air quality and climate. However, the water uptake properties of many important atmospheric aerosol systems, including those related to the oceans, are still not fully understood. Therefore, the primary aim of this PhD research program was to investigate the water uptake properties of marine aerosols. In particular, the effect of organics on marine aerosol water uptake was investigated. Field campaigns were conducted at remote coastal sites on the east coast of Australia (Agnes Water; March-April 2007) and west coast of Ireland (Mace Head; June 2007), and laboratory measurements were performed on bubble-generated sea spray aerosols. A combined Volatility-Hygroscopicity-Tandem Differential Mobility Analyser (VH-TDMA) was employed in all experiments. This system probes the changes in the hygroscopic properties of nanoparticles as volatile organic components are progressively evaporated. It also allows particle composition to be inferred from combined volatility-hygroscopicity measurements. Frequent new particle formation and growth events were observed during the Agnes Water campaign. The VH-TDMA was used to investigate freshly nucleated particles (17-22.5 nm) and it was found that the condensation of sulphate and/or organic vapours was responsible for driving particle growth during the events. Aitken mode particles (~40 nm) were also measured with the VH-TDMA. In 3 out of 18 VH-TDMA scans evaporation of a volatile, organic component caused a very large increase in hygroscopicity that could only be explained by an increase in the absolute water uptake of the particle residuals, and not merely an increase in their relative hygroscopicity. This indicated the presence of organic components that were suppressing the hygroscopic growth of mixed particles on the timescale of humidification in the VH-TDMA (6.5 secs). It was suggested that the suppression of water uptake was caused by either a reduced rate of hygroscopic growth due to the presence of organic films, or organic-inorganic interactions in solution droplets that had a negative effect on hygroscopicity. Mixed organic-inorganic particles were rarely observed by the VH-TDMA during the summer campaign conducted at Mace Head. The majority of particles below 100 nm in clean, marine air appeared to be sulphates neutralised to varying degrees by ammonia. On one unique day, 26 June 2007, particularly large concentrations of sulphate aerosol were observed and identified as volcanic emissions from Iceland. The degree of neutralisation of the sulphate aerosol by ammonia was calculated by the VH-TDMA and found to compare well with the same quantity measured by an aerosol mass spectrometer. This was an important verification of the VH-TMDA‘s ability to identify ammoniated sulphate aerosols based on the simultaneous measurement of aerosol volatility and hygroscopicity. A series of measurements were also conducted on sea spray aerosols generated from Moreton Bay seawater samples in a laboratory-based bubble chamber. Accumulation mode sea spray particles (38-173 nm) were found to contain only a minor organic fraction (< 10%) that had little effect on particle hygroscopicity. These results are important because previous studies have observed that accumulation mode sea spray particles are predominantly organic (~80% organic mass fraction). The work presented here suggests that this is not always the case, and that there may be currently unknown factors that are controlling the transfer of organics to the aerosol phase during the bubble bursting process. Taken together, the results of this research program have significantly improved our understanding of organic-containing marine aerosols and the way they interact with water vapour in the atmosphere.

Volatile properties of particles emitted by compressed natural gas and diesel buses during steady state and transient driving modes

Volatile properties of particle emissions from four compressed natural gas (CNG) and four diesel buses were investigated under steady state and transient driving modes on a chassis dynamometer. The exhaust was diluted utilising a full-flow continuous volume sampling system and passed through a thermodenuder at controlled temperature. Particle number concentration and size distribution were measured with a condensation particle counter and a scanning mobility particle sizer, respectively. We show that, while almost all the particles emitted by the CNG buses were in the nanoparticle size range, at least 85% and 98% were removed at 100ºC and 250ºC, respectively. Closer analysis of the volatility of particles emitted during transient cycles showed that volatilisation began at around 40°C with the majority occurring by 80°C. Particles produced during hard acceleration from rest exhibited lower volatility than that produced during other times of the cycle. Based on our results and the observation of ash deposits on the walls of the tailpipes, we suggest that these non-volatile particles were composed mostly of ash from lubricating oil. Heating the diesel bus emissions to 100ºC removed ultrafine particle numbers by 69% to 82% when a nucleation mode was present and just 18% when it was not.

Formation mechanisms of secondary organic aerosols in relation to laser printer emissions

Due to their large surface area, complex chemical composition and high alveolar deposition rate, ultrafine particles (UFPs) (< 0.1 ìm) pose a significant risk to human health and their toxicological effects have been acknowledged by the World Health Organisation. Since people spend most of their time indoors, there is a growing concern about the UFPs present in some indoor environments. Recent studies have shown that office machines, in particular laser printers, are a significant indoor source of UFPs. The majority of printer-generated UFPs are organic carbon and it is unlikely that these particles are emitted directly from the printer or its supplies (such as paper and toner powder). Thus, it was hypothesised that these UFPs are secondary organic aerosols (SOA). Considering the widespread use of printers and human exposure to these particles, understanding the processes involved in particle formation is of critical importance. However, few studies have investigated the nature (e.g. volatility, hygroscopicity, composition, size distribution and mixing state) and formation mechanisms of these particles. In order to address this gap in scientific knowledge, a comprehensive study including state-of-art instrumental methods was conducted to characterise the real-time emissions from modern commercial laser printers, including particles, volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and ozone (O3). The morphology, elemental composition, volatility and hygroscopicity of generated particles were also examined. The large set of experimental results was analysed and interpreted to provide insight into: (1) Emissions profiles of laser printers: The results showed that UFPs dominated the number concentrations of generated particles, with a quasi unimodal size distribution observed for all tests. These particles were volatile, non-hygroscopic and mixed both externally and internally. Particle microanalysis indicated that semi-volatile organic compounds occupied the dominant fraction of these particles, with only trace quantities of particles containing Ca and Fe. Furthermore, almost all laser printers tested in this study emitted measurable concentrations of VOCs and O3. A positive correlation between submicron particles and O3 concentrations, as well as a contrasting negative correlation between submicron particles and total VOC concentrations were observed during printing for all tests. These results proved that UFPs generated from laser printers are mainly SOAs. (2) Sources and precursors of generated particles: In order to identify the possible particle sources, particle formation potentials of both the printer components (e.g. fuser roller and lubricant oil) and supplies (e.g. paper and toner powder) were investigated using furnace tests. The VOCs emitted during the experiments were sampled and identified to provide information about particle precursors. The results suggested that all of the tested materials had the potential to generate particles upon heating. Nine unsaturated VOCs were identified from the emissions produced by paper and toner, which may contribute to the formation of UFPs through oxidation reactions with ozone. (3) Factors influencing the particle emission: The factors influencing particle emissions were also investigated by comparing two popular laser printers, one showing particle emissions three orders of magnitude higher than the other. The effects of toner coverage, printing history, type of paper and toner, and working temperature of the fuser roller on particle number emissions were examined. The results showed that the temperature of the fuser roller was a key factor driving the emission of particles. Based on the results for 30 different types of laser printers, a systematic positive correlation was observed between temperature and particle number emissions for printers that used the same heating technology and had a similar structure and fuser material. It was also found that temperature fluctuations were associated with intense bursts of particles and therefore, they may have impact on the particle emissions. Furthermore, the results indicated that the type of paper and toner powder contributed to particle emissions, while no apparent relationship was observed between toner coverage and levels of submicron particles. (4) Mechanisms of SOA formation, growth and ageing: The overall hypothesis that UFPs are formed by reactions with the VOCs and O3 emitted from laser printers was examined. The results proved this hypothesis and suggested that O3 may also play a role in particle ageing. In addition, knowledge about the mixing state of generated particles was utilised to explore the detailed processes of particle formation for different printing scenarios, including warm-up, normal printing, and printing without toner. The results indicated that polymerisation may have occurred on the surface of the generated particles to produce thermoplastic polymers, which may account for the expandable characteristics of some particles. Furthermore, toner and other particle residues on the idling belt from previous print jobs were a very clear contributing factor in the formation of laser printer-emitted particles. In summary, this study not only improves scientific understanding of the nature of printer-generated particles, but also provides significant insight into the formation and ageing mechanisms of SOAs in the indoor environment. The outcomes will also be beneficial to governments, industry and individuals.

The Measurement of Information System Use: Preliminary Considerations

DeLone and McLean (1992, p. 16) argue that the concept of “system use” has suffered from a “too simplistic definition.” Despite decades of substantial research on system use, the concept is yet to receive strong theoretical scrutiny. Many measures of system use and the development of measures have been often idiosyncratic and lack credibility or comparability. This paper reviews various attempts at conceptualization and measurement of system use and then proposes a re-conceptualization of it as “the level of incorporation of an information system within a user’s processes.” The definition is supported with the theory of work systems, system, and Key-User-Group considerations. We then go on to develop the concept of a Functional- Interface-Point (FIP) and four dimensions of system usage: extent, the proportion of the FIPs used by the business process; frequency, the rate at which FIPs are used by the participants in the process; thoroughness, the level of use of information/functionality provided by the system at an FIP; and attitude towards use, a set of measures that assess the level of comfort, degree of respect and the challenges set forth by the system. The paper argues that the automation level, the proportion of the business process encoded by the information system has a mediating impact on system use. The article concludes with a discussion of some implications of this re-conceptualization and areas for follow on research.

Finitude (Mallee:Time)

An interactive installation with full body interface, digital projection, multi-touch sensitive screen surfaces, interactive 3D gaming software, motorised dioramas, 4.1 spatial sound & new furniture forms - investigating the cultural dimensions of sustainability through the lens of 'time'. “Time is change, time is finitude. Humans are a finite species. Every decision we make today brings that end closer, or alternatively pushes it further away. Nothing can be neutral”. Tony Fry DETAILS: Finitude (Mallee:Time) is a major new media/sculptural hybrid work premiered in 2011 in version 1 at the Ka-rama Motel for the Mildura Palimpsest #8 ('Collaborators and Saboteurs'). Each participant/viewer lies comfortably on their back on the double bed of Room 22. Directly above them, supported by a wooden structure, not unlike a house frame, is a semi-transparent Perspex screen that displays projected 3D imagery and is simultaneously sensitive to the lightest of finger touches. Depending upon the ever changing qualities of the projected image on this screen the participant can see through its surface to a series of physical dioramas suspended above, lit by subtle LED spotlighting. This diorama consists of a slowly rotating series of physical environments, which also include several animatronic components, allowing the realtime composition of whimsical ‘landscapes’ of both 'real' and 'virtual' media. Through subtle, non-didactic touch-sensitive interactivity the participant then has influence over both the 3D graphic imagery, the physical movements of the diorama and the 4.1 immersive soundscape, creating an uncanny blend of physical and virtual media. Five speakers positioned around the room deliver a rich interactive soundscape that responds both audibly and physically to interactions. VERSION 1, CONTEXT/THEORY: Finitude (Mallee: Time) is Version 1 of a series of presentations during 2012-14. This version has been inspired through a series of recent visits and residencies in the SW Victoria Mallee country. Further drawing on recent writings by post colonial author Paul Carter, the work is envisaged as an evolving ‘personal topography’ of place-discovery. By contrasting and melding readily available generalisations of the Mallee regions’ rational surfaces, climatic maps and ecological systems with what Carter calls “a fine capillary system of interconnected words, places, memories and sensations” generated through my own idiosyncratic research processes, Finitude (Mallee Time) invokes a “dark writing” of place through outside eyes - an approach that avoids concentration upon what 'everyone else knows', to instead imagine and develop a sense how things might be. This basis in re-imagining and re-invention becomes the vehicle for the work’s more fundamental intention - as a meditative re-imagination of 'time' (and region) as finite resources: Towards this end, every object, process and idea in the work is re-thought as having its own ‘time component’ or ‘residue’ that becomes deposited into our 'collective future'. Thought this way Finitude (Mallee Time) suggests the poverty of predominant images of time as ‘mechanism’ to instead envisage time as a plastic cyclical medium that we can each choose to ‘give to’ or ‘take away from’ our future. Put another way - time has become finitude.

Impacts of experimental warming and fire on phenology of subalpine open-heath species

The present study examined experimentally the phenological responses of a range of plant species to rises in temperature. We used the climate-change field protocol of the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX), which measures plant responses to warming of 1 to 2°C inside small open-topped chambers. The field study was established on the Bogong High Plains, Australia, in subalpine open heathlands; the most common treeless plant community on the Bogong High Plains. The study included areas burnt by fire in 2003, and therefore considers the interactive effects of warming and fire, which have rarely been studied in high mountain environments. From November 2003 to March 2006, various phenological phases were monitored inside and outside chambers during the snow-free periods. Warming resulted in earlier occurrence of key phenological events in 7 of the 14 species studied. Burning altered phenology in 9 of 10 species studied, with both earlier and later phenological changes depending on the species. There were no common phenological responses to warming or burning among species of the same family, growth form or flowering type (i.e. early or late-flowering species), when all phenological events were examined. The proportion of plants that formed flower buds was influenced by fire in half of the species studied. The findings support previous findings of ITEX and other warming experiments; that is, species respond individualistically to experimental warming. The inter-year variation in phenological response, the idiosyncratic nature of the responses to experimental warming among species, and an inherent resilience to fire, may result in community resilience to short-term climate change. In the first 3 years of experimental warming, phenological responses do not appear to be driving community-level change. Our findings emphasise the value of examining multiple species in climate-change studies.

Johnno

The field of research was internationally-oriented contemporary theatre practice. The research challenge was to adapt an iconic Queensland novel – David Malouf’s Johnno - to the stage in a way that would engage, resonate with and be relevant to national and international audiences. This project represented an international collaboration between La Boite Theatre Company, the Derby Playhouse, UK, and the Brisbane Festival. It was the first time that an English and an Australian company had collaborated in such a way, sharing both creative vision and financial costs and providing performances on both continents. The production was well received in both countries, suggesting that a culturally idiosyncratic work such as Johnno can be created that can fulfil not only the needs of the localised audience but also have broad global cultural resonance. The work was performed at the Brisbane Festival and the Derby Playhouse. In Brisbane, it was performed at the Brisbane Powerhouse as the signature work of the 2006 festival, with 30 performances, receiving favourable national reviews and achieving 90% box office. In the UK, it was performed at the Derby Playhouse for 22 performances, once again to favourable national reviews and 60% audiences, a good result for a new work in a regional theatre in the UK. The success of Johnno was also in the power of the collaboration between the three creative companies involved in the work.

Physicochemical characterization of particulate emissions from a compression ignition engine employing two injection technologies and three fuels

Alternative fuels and injection technologies are a necessary component of particulate emission reduction strategies for compression ignition engines. Consequently, this study undertakes a physicochemical characterization of diesel particulate matter (DPM) for engines equipped with alternative injection technologies (direct injection and common rail) and alternative fuels (ultra low sulfur diesel, a 20% biodiesel blend, and a synthetic diesel). Particle physical properties were addressed by measuring particle number size distributions, and particle chemical properties were addressed by measuring polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and reactive oxygen species (ROS). Particle volatility was determined by passing the polydisperse size distribution through a thermodenuder set to 300 °C. The results from this study, conducted over a four point test cycle, showed that both fuel type and injection technology have an impact on particle emissions, but injection technology was the more important factor. Significant particle number emission (54%–84%) reductions were achieved at half load operation (1% increase–43% decrease at full load) with the common rail injection system; however, the particles had a significantly higher PAH fraction (by a factor of 2 to 4) and ROS concentrations (by a factor of 6 to 16) both expressed on a test-cycle averaged basis. The results of this study have significant implications for the health effects of DPM emissions from both direct injection and common rail engines utilizing various alternative fuels.

Not a dirty word : arts entrepreneurship and higher education

While the majority of creative, performing, and literary artists are self-employed, relatively few tertiary arts schools attempt to develop capabilities for venture creation and management (and entrepreneurship more broadly) and still fewer do so effectively. This article asks why this is the case. It addresses underlying conceptual and philosophical issues encountered by arts educators, arguing that in all three senses of the term: new venture creation; career self-management; and being enterprising, entrepreneurship is essential to career success in the arts. However, the practice of entrepreneurship in the arts is significantly different from the practice of entrepreneurship in business, in terms of the artist’s drivers and aims, as well as the nature of entrepreneurial opportunities, contexts and processes. These differences mean that entrepreneurship curricula cannot simply be imported from Business schools. This article also examines the arts-idiosyncratic challenge of negotiating distinctive and potentially conflicting entrepreneurial aims, using career identity theory. It concludes by suggesting strategies by which adaptive entrepreneurial artist identities can be developed through higher education programs.

One size fits one : customizing work through manager-employee exchange

While prior research has addressed how collective workplace outcomes are negotiated between employers and trade unions, less attention has been afforded to the ‘everyday’, micro-level exchanges between managers and employees in adjusting work, alongside the ‘standard’ terms and conditions set out in employment contracts. Building on previous work on idiosyncratic deals and requests for flexible scheduling, this article presents the findings from a survey of Australian parents which addressed manager-employee exchanges which led to customized work arrangements. The survey examined the frequency with which various employment terms and conditions were negotiated, who initiated the interactions, where they occurred, and the extent of perceived compromise. The study revealed that manager-employee exchanges occur frequently in the context of roles in nuclear and extended families, and are influenced by the parameters around which formal childcare and educational settings function. Women rated the exchanges as more important than men, but men and women were similarly comfortable with the interactions and satisfied with outcomes. The findings have important implications for managers and organizations in terms of balancing the goals of efficiency with employees’ preferences for workplace flexibility and other terms beyond those which are standardized.

Student feedback systems in higher education: a focused literature review and environmental scan

In recent times, higher education institutions have paid increasing attention to the views of students to obtain feedback on their experience of learning and teaching through internal surveys. This article reviews research in the field and reports on practices in other Australian universities. Findings demonstrate that while student feedback is valued and used by all Australian universities, survey practices are idiosyncratic and in the majority of cases, questionnaires lack validity and reliability; data are used inadequately or inappropriately; and they offer limited potential for cross-sector benchmarking. The study confirms the need for institutions to develop an overarching framework for evaluation in which a valid, reliable, multidimensional and useful student feedback survey constitutes just one part. Given external expectations and internal requirements to collect feedback from students on their experience of learning and teaching, the pursuit of sound evaluation practices will continue to be of interest at local, national and international levels.

The preferences of private equity investors in selecting target acquisitions : an international investigation

This study investigates the characteristics and attributes that private equity investors prefer when selecting target acquisitions. These characteristics are examined against a matched sample of firms subject to corporate acquisitions via tender/merger offer during 2000-2009, across seven countries: Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, the USA, France, Germany and Sweden. We show that firm-specific characteristics are more influential in target selection than external or institutional variables. In particular, private equity targets exhibit lower stock volatility and long-term growth prospects, are larger, and have greater abnormal operating income relative to tender/merger offer target firms. Further, private equity bidders exhibit 'home bias', implying that familiarity motivates target selection. Institutional factors remain largely insignificant across all tests.