Developing a best practice framework for implementing public private partnerships (PPP) in Hong Kong

Public Private Partnership (PPP) is a well established methodology for procuring public works projects. By incorporating the private sector’s expertise, efficiency, innovation, business sense, risk sharing, financing etc. into public works projects, the quality of public services and facilities can be uplifted. Like many jurisdictions, Hong Kong is also keen to take aboard this methodology which is so familiar but yet so distant. Although they have been one of the first jurisdictions to utilise the private sector in public works projects, their comfortable financial reserves has meant that there has been no urge to push the movement until recently. PPP has become increasingly popular amongst governments. The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) government is no exception. Some of the more active works departments have commissioned studies to investigate the best ways to deliver these projects, others have even trialed the method themselves. The efficiency Unit of the HKSAR government has also become an active arm in conducting research in this area. Although so, the information that is currently available is still very broad. Building from their works there is a need to develop a best practice framework for implementing PPP projects in Hong Kong by incorporating international experiences. To develop a best practice framework will require thorough investigation into the benefits, difficulties and critical success factor of PPP. PPP should also be compared with other procurement methods. In order to do so it is important to clearly understand the local situation by an analysis of projects conducted to date. Lessons learnt can further be derived from other countries and incorporated to those derived locally. Finally the best conditions in terms of project nature, complexity, types, and scales for adopting PPP should be derived. The aim and objectives of this study were achieved via a comprehensive literature review, in-depth case analyses, interview survey with experts from both Hong Kong and overseas, and finally a large scale data collection was conducted via a questionnaire survey with PPP practitioners. These findings were further triangulated before they were used as the basis to form the best practice framework presented in this thesis. The framework was then further validated by PPP experts to ensure it is comprehensive, objective, reliable and practical. This study has presented a methodology that can be adopted for future studies. It has also updated our knowledge on the development trends of PPP as well as opened up the experiences of other jurisdictions. The findings have shown that the local industry is familiar with “what” should be done in PPP projects but they are unsure of “how” these goals can be achieved. This framework has allowed this further knowledge to be delivered to PPP practitioners. As a result, the development of this framework can help to resolve the current economic crisis by encouraging more developments and business opportunities for the private sector. In addition, the correct projects can be delivered by PPP, the advantages of PPP can be maximised, and the general public can benefit from the private sector’s participation.

Early detection : a strategy to reduce risk and severity?

Despite changes in surgical techniques, radiotherapy targeting and the apparent earlier detection of cancers, secondary lymphoedema is still a significant problem for about 20–30% of those who receive treatment for cancer, although the incidence and prevalence does seem to be falling. The figures above generally relate to detection of an enlarged limb or other area, but it seems that about 60% of all patients also suffer other problems with how the limb feels, what can or cannot be done with it and a range of social or psychological issues. Often these ‘subjective’ changes occur before the objective ones, such as a change in arm volume or circumference. For most of those treated for cancer lymphoedema does not develop immediately, and, while about 60–70% develop it in the first few years, some do not develop lymphoedema for up to 15 or 20 years. Those who will develop clinically manifest lymphoedema in the future are, for some time, in a latent or hidden phase of lymphoedema. There also seems to be some risk factors which are indicators for a higher likelihood of lymphoedema post treatment, including oedema at the surgical site, arm dominance, age, skin conditions, and body mass index (BMI).

Contemporary behavioural influences in an organisational setting and implications for intervention development

Professional drivers and safety Within the industrialised world, work-related crashes are the most common cause of work-related death, injury and reduced productivity (Charbotel et al., 2001; Toscano and Windau, 1994). Likewise in Australia, road crashes are the most common cause of work-related fatalities, injuries and absence from work (Haworth et al., 2000), with the average time lost being greater than any other workplace claim (Stewart-Bogle, 1999). There are obvious costs related to work crashes such as vehicle and property repair costs. There are also many hidden expenses including third party costs, workers compensation, medical costs, rehabilitation, customer-related costs, increased insurance premiums, administrative costs, legal fees and loss of productivity (Collingwood, 1997; Haworth et al, 2000).

A model to predict hypovigilance during a monotonous task

The driving task requires sustained attention during prolonged periods, and can be performed in highly predictable or repetitive environments. Such conditions could create drowsiness or hypovigilance and impair the ability to react to critical events. Identifying vigilance decrement in monotonous conditions has been a major subject of research, but no research to date has attempted to predict this vigilance decrement. This pilot study aims to show that vigilance decrements due to monotonous tasks can be predicted through mathematical modelling. A short vigilance task sensitive to short periods of lapses of vigilance called Sustained Attention to Response Task is used to assess participants’ performance. This task models the driver’s ability to cope with unpredicted events by performing the expected action. A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is proposed to predict participants’ hypovigilance. Driver’s vigilance evolution is modelled as a hidden state and is correlated to an observable variable: the participant’s reactions time. This experiment shows that the monotony of the task can lead to an important vigilance decline in less than five minutes. This impairment can be predicted four minutes in advance with an 86% accuracy using HMMs. This experiment showed that mathematical models such as HMM can efficiently predict hypovigilance through surrogate measures. The presented model could result in the development of an in-vehicle device that detects driver hypovigilance in advance and warn the driver accordingly, thus offering the potential to enhance road safety and prevent road crashes.

Examining the use of bid information in predicting the contractor’s performance

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the use of bid information, including both price and non-price factors in predicting the bidder’s performance. Design/methodology/approach – The practice of the industry was first reviewed. Data on bid evaluation and performance records of the successful bids were then obtained from the Hong Kong Housing Department, the largest housing provider in Hong Kong. This was followed by the development of a radial basis function (RBF) neural network based performance prediction model. Findings – It is found that public clients are more conscientious and include non-price factors in their bid evaluation equations. With the input variables used the information is available at the time of the bid and the output variable is the project performance score recorded during work in progress achieved by the successful bidder. It was found that past project performance score is the most sensitive input variable in predicting future performance. Research limitations/implications – The paper shows the inadequacy of using price alone for bid award criterion. The need for a systemic performance evaluation is also highlighted, as this information is highly instrumental for subsequent bid evaluations. The caveat for this study is that the prediction model was developed based on data obtained from one single source. Originality/value – The value of the paper is in the use of an RBF neural network as the prediction tool because it can model non-linear function. This capability avoids tedious ‘‘trial and error’’ in deciding the number of hidden layers to be used in the network model. Keywords Hong Kong, Construction industry, Neural nets, Modelling, Bid offer spreads Paper type Research paper

Assessment for learning : a sociocultural approach

Assessment for Learning (AfL) is a title given to classroom evaluative practices that share the purpose of diagnosing and informing teachers and students about learning progress, during the learning process. These practices also have the potential to develop learner autonomy by increasing student motivation and mastery through developing the learner's capacity to monitor and plan his or her own learning progress. Yet teacher adoption of the practices is not a straightforward implementation of techniques within an existing classroom repertoire. Recent research highlights a more complex interrelationship between teacher and student beliefs, identities, and traditions of power within assessment and learning in classroom contexts. These often hidden relationships can add layers of complexity for teachers implementing assessment change, and may act as barriers that frustrate efforts to realise the AfL goal of learner autonomy. By interpreting AfL practices from a sociocultural perspective, the social and cultural contexts that influence classroom assessment can be better understood. In turn teachers can thus be better supported in adopting AfL practices within the complexities of the social, cultural and policy contexts of schooling.

Celebrating difference/censoring difference? : Marie Chouinard’s bODY rEMIX

This paper examines performances that defy established representations of disease, deformity and bodily difference. Historically, the ‘deformed’ body has been cast – onstage and in sideshows – as flawed, an object of pity, or an example of the human capacity to overcome. Such representations define the boundaries of the ‘normal’ body by displaying its Other. They bracket the ‘abnormal’ body off as an example of deviance from the ‘norm’, thus, paradoxically, decreasing the social and symbolic visibility (and agency) of disabled people. Yet, in contemporary theory and culture, these representations are reappropriated – by disabled artists, certainly, but also as what Carrie Sandahl has called a ‘master trope’ for representing a range of bodily differences. In this paper, I investigate this phenomenon. I analyse French Canadian choreographer Marie Chouinard’s bODY rEMIX/gOLDBERG vARIATIONS, in which 10 able-bodied dancers are reborn as bizarre biotechnical mutants via the use of crutches, walkers, ballet shoes and barres as prosthetic pseudo-organs. These bodies defy boundaries, defy expectations, develop new modes of expression, and celebrate bodily difference. The self-inflicted pain dancers experience during training is cast as a ‘disablement’ that is ultimately ‘enabling’. I ask what effect encountering able bodies celebrating ‘dis’ or ‘diff’ ability has on audiences. Do we see the emergence of a once-repressed Other, no longer silenced, censored or negated? Or does using ‘disability’ to express the dancers’ difference and self-determination usurp a ‘trope’ by which disabled people themselves might speak back to the dominant culture, creating further censorship?

Duplicity/complicity : misperforming the social drama of disability

In this paper, I investigate the (mis)performance of ‘passing’ in the context of bodies with disabilities. The desire to conceal, control or contain a body’s idiosyncrasies can be a deceitful act, complicit with dominant cultural assumptions about the benefits of fitting in. Passing, and the performative tricks, techniques and prostheses that support the ‘lie’ of passing, upholding a social contract in which a closeting-as-cure approach accommodates discomfort with difference. In this paper, I consider moments of non-passing, where people are caught out by mistakes or deliberate misperformances of the daily social drama of ability and disability. I reference the work of disabled artists Bill Shannon, Aaron Williamson and Katherine Araniello, who re-perform their daily personal interactions in the public sphere as a sort of guerilla theatre. Their work brings hidden assumptions about how disabled people should act and interact to the brink of visibility. It challenges passers-by to confront their complicity in these discourses by pressing them to re-perform their own spontaneous reactions to bodies that misperform the ‘lie’ of normalcy.

Street computing workshop 2009

The Street Computing workshop, held in conjunction with OZCHI 2009, solicits papers discussing new research directions, early research results, works-in-progress and critical surveys of prior research work in the areas of ubiquitous computing and interaction design for urban environments. Urban spaces have unique characteristics. Typically, they are densely populated, buzzing with life twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week. These traits afford many opportunities, but they also present many challenges: traffic jams, smog and pollution, stress placed on public services, and more. Computing technology, particularly the kind that can be placed in the hands of citizens, holds much promise in combating some of these challenges. Yet, computation is not merely a tool for overcoming challenges; rather, when embedded appropriately in our everyday lives, it becomes a tool of opportunity, for shaping how our cities evolve, for enabling us to interact with our city and its people in new ways, and for uncovering useful, but hidden relationships and correlations between elements of the city. The increasing availability of an urban computing infrastructure has lead to new and exciting ways inhabitants can interact with their city. This includes interaction with a wide range of services (e.g. public transport, public services), conceptual representations of the city (e.g. local weather and traffic conditions), the availability of a variety of shared and personal displays (e.g. public, ambient, mobile) and the use of different interaction modes (e.g. tangible, gesture-based, token-based). This workshop solicits papers that address the above themes in some way. We encourage researchers to submit work that deals with challenges and possibilities that the availability of urban computing infrastructure such as sensors and middleware for sensor networks pose. This includes new and innovative ways of interacting with and within urban environments; user experience design and participatory design approaches for urban environments; social aspects of urban computing; and other related areas.

Setting hospital infection control policy : a decision-making framework incorporating health economics and healthcare epidemiology

Background: Reducing rates of healthcare acquired infection has been identified by the Australian Commission on Safety and Quality in Health Care as a national priority. One of the goals is the prevention of central venous catheter-related bloodstream infection (CR-BSI). At least 3,500 cases of CR-BSI occur annually in Australian hospitals, resulting in unnecessary deaths and costs to the healthcare system between $25.7 and $95.3 million. Two approaches to preventing these infections have been proposed: use of antimicrobial catheters (A-CVCs); or a catheter care and management ‘bundle’. Given finite healthcare budgets, decisions about the optimal infection control policy require consideration of the effectiveness and value for money of each approach. Objectives: The aim of this research is to use a rational economic framework to inform efficient infection control policy relating to the prevention of CR-BSI in the intensive care unit. It addresses three questions relating to decision-making in this area: 1. Is additional investment in activities aimed at preventing CR-BSI an efficient use of healthcare resources? 2. What is the optimal infection control strategy from amongst the two major approaches that have been proposed to prevent CR-BSI? 3. What uncertainty is there in this decision and can a research agenda to improve decision-making in this area be identified? Methods: A decision analytic model-based economic evaluation was undertaken to identify an efficient approach to preventing CR-BSI in Queensland Health intensive care units. A Markov model was developed in conjunction with a panel of clinical experts which described the epidemiology and prognosis of CR-BSI. The model was parameterised using data systematically identified from the published literature and extracted from routine databases. The quality of data used in the model and its validity to clinical experts and sensitivity to modelling assumptions was assessed. Two separate economic evaluations were conducted. The first evaluation compared all commercially available A-CVCs alongside uncoated catheters to identify which was cost-effective for routine use. The uncertainty in this decision was estimated along with the value of collecting further information to inform the decision. The second evaluation compared the use of A-CVCs to a catheter care bundle. We were unable to estimate the cost of the bundle because it is unclear what the full resource requirements are for its implementation, and what the value of these would be in an Australian context. As such we undertook a threshold analysis to identify the cost and effectiveness thresholds at which a hypothetical bundle would dominate the use of A-CVCs under various clinical scenarios. Results: In the first evaluation of A-CVCs, the findings from the baseline analysis, in which uncertainty is not considered, show that the use of any of the four A-CVCs will result in health gains accompanied by cost-savings. The MR catheters dominate the baseline analysis generating 1.64 QALYs and cost-savings of $130,289 per 1.000 catheters. With uncertainty, and based on current information, the MR catheters remain the optimal decision and return the highest average net monetary benefits ($948 per catheter) relative to all other catheter types. This conclusion was robust to all scenarios tested, however, the probability of error in this conclusion is high, 62% in the baseline scenario. Using a value of $40,000 per QALY, the expected value of perfect information associated with this decision is $7.3 million. An analysis of the expected value of perfect information for individual parameters suggests that it may be worthwhile for future research to focus on providing better estimates of the mortality attributable to CR-BSI and the effectiveness of both SPC and CH/SSD (int/ext) catheters. In the second evaluation of the catheter care bundle relative to A-CVCs, the results which do not consider uncertainty indicate that a bundle must achieve a relative risk of CR-BSI of at least 0.45 to be cost-effective relative to MR catheters. If the bundle can reduce rates of infection from 2.5% to effectively zero, it is cost-effective relative to MR catheters if national implementation costs are less than $2.6 million ($56,610 per ICU). If the bundle can achieve a relative risk of 0.34 (comparable to that reported in the literature) it is cost-effective, relative to MR catheters, if costs over an 18 month period are below $613,795 nationally ($13,343 per ICU). Once uncertainty in the decision is considered, the cost threshold for the bundle increases to $2.2 million. Therefore, if each of the 46 Level III ICUs could implement an 18 month catheter care bundle for less than $47,826 each, this approach would be cost effective relative to A-CVCs. However, the uncertainty is substantial and the probability of error in concluding that the bundle is the cost-effective approach at a cost of $2.2 million is 89%. Conclusions: This work highlights that infection control to prevent CR-BSI is an efficient use of healthcare resources in the Australian context. If there is no further investment in infection control, an opportunity cost is incurred, which is the potential for a more efficient healthcare system. Minocycline/rifampicin catheters are the optimal choice of antimicrobial catheter for routine use in Australian Level III ICUs, however, if a catheter care bundle implemented in Australia was as effective as those used in the large studies in the United States it would be preferred over the catheters if it was able to be implemented for less than $47,826 per Level III ICU. Uncertainty is very high in this decision and arises from multiple sources. There are likely greater costs to this uncertainty for A-CVCs, which may carry hidden costs, than there are for a catheter care bundle, which is more likely to provide indirect benefits to clinical practice and patient safety. Research into the mortality attributable to CR-BSI, the effectiveness of SPC and CH/SSD (int/ext) catheters and the cost and effectiveness of a catheter care bundle in Australia should be prioritised to reduce uncertainty in this decision. This thesis provides the economic evidence to inform one area of infection control, but there are many other infection control decisions for which information about the cost-effectiveness of competing interventions does not exist. This work highlights some of the challenges and benefits to generating and using economic evidence for infection control decision-making and provides support for commissioning more research into the cost-effectiveness of infection control.

Alternate reality games and education innovation

An Alternate Reality Game (ARG) is a unique experience that blurs the edges between our everyday lives and imagined game worlds. Players are invited to interact with each other and fictional characters using familiar tools such as emails, websites, telephones, and sometimes newspapers, radio and television. ARGs come in all shapes and sizes, tell a variety of different stories and inspire all kinds of interactions between people, their networks and the very streets in which they live. Some ARGs simply immerse you in fictional scenarios and indulge you in quirky challenges. While others reveal hidden histories of a city and teach us about important political causes. But the most exciting thing about ARGs is that they have the potential to inspire participants to imagine their everyday tools and places as resources for their own creative endeavors. Deb Polson will be presenting some of the most inspiring ARGs of recent years and revealing some of the design techniques that were used to create them. Most significantly Deb will discuss ways in which educators can imagine using ARGs as rich teaching tools that inspire collaborative learning and motivate students to engage in all kinds of subject matter.

The effect of prolonged reading on visual functions and reading performance in students with low vision

This study is the first to investigate the effect of prolonged reading on reading performance and visual functions in students with low vision. The study focuses on one of the most common modes of achieving adequate magnification for reading by students with low vision, their close reading distance (proximal or relative distance magnification). Close reading distances impose high demands on near visual functions, such as accommodation and convergence. Previous research on accommodation in children with low vision shows that their accommodative responses are reduced compared to normal vision. In addition, there is an increased lag of accommodation for higher stimulus levels as may occur at close reading distance. Reduced accommodative responses in low vision and higher lag of accommodation at close reading distances together could impact on reading performance of students with low vision especially during prolonged reading tasks. The presence of convergence anomalies could further affect reading performance. Therefore, the aims of the present study were 1) To investigate the effect of prolonged reading on reading performance in students with low vision 2) To investigate the effect of prolonged reading on visual functions in students with low vision. This study was conducted as cross-sectional research on 42 students with low vision and a comparison group of 20 students with normal vision, aged 7 to 20 years. The students with low vision had vision impairments arising from a range of causes and represented a typical group of students with low vision, with no significant developmental delays, attending school in Brisbane, Australia. All participants underwent a battery of clinical tests before and after a prolonged reading task. An initial reading-specific history and pre-task measurements that included Bailey-Lovie distance and near visual acuities, Pelli-Robson contrast sensitivity, ocular deviations, sensory fusion, ocular motility, near point of accommodation (pull-away method), accuracy of accommodation (Monocular Estimation Method (MEM)) retinoscopy and Near Point of Convergence (NPC) (push-up method) were recorded for all participants. Reading performance measures were Maximum Oral Reading Rates (MORR), Near Text Visual Acuity (NTVA) and acuity reserves using Bailey-Lovie text charts. Symptoms of visual fatigue were assessed using the Convergence Insufficiency Symptom Survey (CISS) for all participants. Pre-task measurements of reading performance and accuracy of accommodation and NPC were compared with post-task measurements, to test for any effects of prolonged reading. The prolonged reading task involved reading a storybook silently for at least 30 minutes. The task was controlled for print size, contrast, difficulty level and content of the reading material. Silent Reading Rate (SRR) was recorded every 2 minutes during prolonged reading. Symptom scores and visual fatigue scores were also obtained for all participants. A visual fatigue analogue scale (VAS) was used to assess visual fatigue during the task, once at the beginning, once at the middle and once at the end of the task. In addition to the subjective assessments of visual fatigue, tonic accommodation was monitored using a photorefractor (PlusoptiX CR03™) every 6 minutes during the task, as an objective assessment of visual fatigue. Reading measures were done at the habitual reading distance of students with low vision and at 25 cms for students with normal vision. The initial history showed that the students with low vision read for significantly shorter periods at home compared to the students with normal vision. The working distances of participants with low vision ranged from 3-25 cms and half of them were not using any optical devices for magnification. Nearly half of the participants with low vision were able to resolve 8-point print (1M) at 25 cms. Half of the participants in the low vision group had ocular deviations and suppression at near. Reading rates were significantly reduced in students with low vision compared to those of students with normal vision. In addition, there were a significantly larger number of participants in the low vision group who could not sustain the 30-minute task compared to the normal vision group. However, there were no significant changes in reading rates during or following prolonged reading in either the low vision or normal vision groups. Individual changes in reading rates were independent of their baseline reading rates, indicating that the changes in reading rates during prolonged reading cannot be predicted from a typical clinical assessment of reading using brief reading tasks. Contrary to previous reports the silent reading rates of the students with low vision were significantly lower than their oral reading rates, although oral and silent reading was assessed using different methods. Although the visual acuity, contrast sensitivity, near point of convergence and accuracy of accommodation were significantly poorer for the low vision group compared to those of the normal vision group, there were no significant changes in any of these visual functions following prolonged reading in either group. Interestingly, a few students with low vision (n =10) were found to be reading at a distance closer than their near point of accommodation. This suggests a decreased sensitivity to blur. Further evaluation revealed that the equivalent intrinsic refractive errors (an estimate of the spherical dioptirc defocus which would be expected to yield a patient’s visual acuity in normal subjects) were significantly larger for the low vision group compared to those of the normal vision group. As expected, accommodative responses were significantly reduced for the low vision group compared to the expected norms, which is consistent with their close reading distances, reduced visual acuity and contrast sensitivity. For those in the low vision group who had an accommodative error exceeding their equivalent intrinsic refractive errors, a significant decrease in MORR was found following prolonged reading. The silent reading rates however were not significantly affected by accommodative errors in the present study. Suppression also had a significant impact on the changes in reading rates during prolonged reading. The participants who did not have suppression at near showed significant decreases in silent reading rates during and following prolonged reading. This impact of binocular vision at near on prolonged reading was possibly due to the high demands on convergence. The significant predictors of MORR in the low vision group were age, NTVA, reading interest and reading comprehension, accounting for 61.7% of the variances in MORR. SRR was not significantly influenced by any factors, except for the duration of the reading task sustained; participants with higher reading rates were able to sustain a longer reading duration. In students with normal vision, age was the only predictor of MORR. Participants with low vision also reported significantly greater visual fatigue compared to the normal vision group. Measures of tonic accommodation however were little influenced by visual fatigue in the present study. Visual fatigue analogue scores were found to be significantly associated with reading rates in students with low vision and normal vision. However, the patterns of association between visual fatigue and reading rates were different for SRR and MORR. The participants with low vision with higher symptom scores had lower SRRs and participants with higher visual fatigue had lower MORRs. As hypothesized, visual functions such as accuracy of accommodation and convergence did have an impact on prolonged reading in students with low vision, for students whose accommodative errors were greater than their equivalent intrinsic refractive errors, and for those who did not suppress one eye. Those students with low vision who have accommodative errors higher than their equivalent intrinsic refractive errors might significantly benefit from reading glasses. Similarly, considering prisms or occlusion for those without suppression might reduce the convergence demands in these students while using their close reading distances. The impact of these prescriptions on reading rates, reading interest and visual fatigue is an area of promising future research. Most importantly, it is evident from the present study that a combination of factors such as accommodative errors, near point of convergence and suppression should be considered when prescribing reading devices for students with low vision. Considering these factors would also assist rehabilitation specialists in identifying those students who are likely to experience difficulty in prolonged reading, which is otherwise not reflected during typical clinical reading assessments.

Integrated Bayesian network frameworks for modelling complex ecological issues

Ecological problems are typically multi faceted and need to be addressed from a scientific and a management perspective. There is a wealth of modelling and simulation software available, each designed to address a particular aspect of the issue of concern. Choosing the appropriate tool, making sense of the disparate outputs, and taking decisions when little or no empirical data is available, are everyday challenges facing the ecologist and environmental manager. Bayesian Networks provide a statistical modelling framework that enables analysis and integration of information in its own right as well as integration of a variety of models addressing different aspects of a common overall problem. There has been increased interest in the use of BNs to model environmental systems and issues of concern. However, the development of more sophisticated BNs, utilising dynamic and object oriented (OO) features, is still at the frontier of ecological research. Such features are particularly appealing in an ecological context, since the underlying facts are often spatial and temporal in nature. This thesis focuses on an integrated BN approach which facilitates OO modelling. Our research devises a new heuristic method, the Iterative Bayesian Network Development Cycle (IBNDC), for the development of BN models within a multi-field and multi-expert context. Expert elicitation is a popular method used to quantify BNs when data is sparse, but expert knowledge is abundant. The resulting BNs need to be substantiated and validated taking this uncertainty into account. Our research demonstrates the application of the IBNDC approach to support these aspects of BN modelling. The complex nature of environmental issues makes them ideal case studies for the proposed integrated approach to modelling. Moreover, they lend themselves to a series of integrated sub-networks describing different scientific components, combining scientific and management perspectives, or pooling similar contributions developed in different locations by different research groups. In southern Africa the two largest free-ranging cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) populations are in Namibia and Botswana, where the majority of cheetahs are located outside protected areas. Consequently, cheetah conservation in these two countries is focussed primarily on the free-ranging populations as well as the mitigation of conflict between humans and cheetahs. In contrast, in neighbouring South Africa, the majority of cheetahs are found in fenced reserves. Nonetheless, conflict between humans and cheetahs remains an issue here. Conservation effort in South Africa is also focussed on managing the geographically isolated cheetah populations as one large meta-population. Relocation is one option among a suite of tools used to resolve human-cheetah conflict in southern Africa. Successfully relocating captured problem cheetahs, and maintaining a viable free-ranging cheetah population, are two environmental issues in cheetah conservation forming the first case study in this thesis. The second case study involves the initiation of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a blue-green algae, in Deception Bay, Australia. L. majuscula is a toxic algal bloom which has severe health, ecological and economic impacts on the community located in the vicinity of this algal bloom. Deception Bay is an important tourist destination with its proximity to Brisbane, Australia’s third largest city. Lyngbya is one of several algae considered to be a Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB). This group of algae includes other widespread blooms such as red tides. The occurrence of Lyngbya blooms is not a local phenomenon, but blooms of this toxic weed occur in coastal waters worldwide. With the increase in frequency and extent of these HAB blooms, it is important to gain a better understanding of the underlying factors contributing to the initiation and sustenance of these blooms. This knowledge will contribute to better management practices and the identification of those management actions which could prevent or diminish the severity of these blooms.

Holding and opportunity cost theory in a property development context

This paper focuses on the varying approaches and methodologies adopted when the calculation of holding costs is undertaken, focusing on greenfield development. Whilst acknowledging there may be some consistency in embracing first principles relating to holding cost theory, a review of the literature reveals considerable lack of uniformity in this regard. There is even less clarity in quantitative determination, especially in Australia where there has been only limited empirical analysis undertaken. Despite a growing quantum of research undertaken in relation to various elements connected with housing affordability, the matter of holding costs has not been well addressed regardless of its part in the highly prioritised Australian Government’s housing research agenda. The end result has been a modicum of qualitative commentary relating to holding costs. There have been few attempts at finer-tuned analysis that exposes a quantified level of holding cost calculated with underlying rigour. Holding costs can take many forms, but they inevitably involve the computation of “carrying costs” of an initial outlay that has yet to fully realise its ultimate yield. Although sometimes considered a “hidden” cost, it is submitted that holding costs prospectively represent a major determinate of value. If this is the case, then considered in the context of housing affordability, it is therefore potentially pervasive.