New criteria for evaluating methods of identifying hot spots

Identification of hot spots, also known as the sites with promise, black spots, accident-prone locations, or priority investigation locations, is an important and routine activity for improving the overall safety of roadway networks. Extensive literature focuses on methods for hot spot identification (HSID). A subset of this considerable literature is dedicated to conducting performance assessments of various HSID methods. A central issue in comparing HSID methods is the development and selection of quantitative and qualitative performance measures or criteria. The authors contend that currently employed HSID assessment criteria—namely false positives and false negatives—are necessary but not sufficient, and additional criteria are needed to exploit the ordinal nature of site ranking data. With the intent to equip road safety professionals and researchers with more useful tools to compare the performances of various HSID methods and to improve the level of HSID assessments, this paper proposes four quantitative HSID evaluation tests that are, to the authors’ knowledge, new and unique. These tests evaluate different aspects of HSID method performance, including reliability of results, ranking consistency, and false identification consistency and reliability. It is intended that road safety professionals apply these different evaluation tests in addition to existing tests to compare the performances of various HSID methods, and then select the most appropriate HSID method to screen road networks to identify sites that require further analysis. This work demonstrates four new criteria using 3 years of Arizona road section accident data and four commonly applied HSID methods [accident frequency ranking, accident rate ranking, accident reduction potential, and empirical Bayes (EB)]. The EB HSID method reveals itself as the superior method in most of the evaluation tests. In contrast, identifying hot spots using accident rate rankings performs the least well among the tests. The accident frequency and accident reduction potential methods perform similarly, with slight differences explained. The authors believe that the four new evaluation tests offer insight into HSID performance heretofore unavailable to analysts and researchers.

Experimental evaluation of hotspot identification methods

Identifying crash “hotspots”, “blackspots”, “sites with promise”, or “high risk” locations is standard practice in departments of transportation throughout the US. The literature is replete with the development and discussion of statistical methods for hotspot identification (HSID). Theoretical derivations and empirical studies have been used to weigh the benefits of various HSID methods; however, a small number of studies have used controlled experiments to systematically assess various methods. Using experimentally derived simulated data—which are argued to be superior to empirical data, three hot spot identification methods observed in practice are evaluated: simple ranking, confidence interval, and Empirical Bayes. Using simulated data, sites with promise are known a priori, in contrast to empirical data where high risk sites are not known for certain. To conduct the evaluation, properties of observed crash data are used to generate simulated crash frequency distributions at hypothetical sites. A variety of factors is manipulated to simulate a host of ‘real world’ conditions. Various levels of confidence are explored, and false positives (identifying a safe site as high risk) and false negatives (identifying a high risk site as safe) are compared across methods. Finally, the effects of crash history duration in the three HSID approaches are assessed. The results illustrate that the Empirical Bayes technique significantly outperforms ranking and confidence interval techniques (with certain caveats). As found by others, false positives and negatives are inversely related. Three years of crash history appears, in general, to provide an appropriate crash history duration.

Secure tracking for critical applications : communications, GPS and future Galileo services

Tracking/remote monitoring systems using GNSS are a proven method to enhance the safety and security of personnel and vehicles carrying precious or hazardous cargo. While GNSS tracking appears to mitigate some of these threats, if not adequately secured, it can be a double-edged sword allowing adversaries to obtain sensitive shipment and vehicle position data to better coordinate their attacks, and to provide a false sense of security to monitoring centers. Tracking systems must be designed with the ability to perform route-compliance and thwart attacks ranging from low-level attacks such as the cutting of antenna cables to medium and high-level attacks involving radio jamming and signal / data-level simulation, especially where the goods transported have a potentially high value to terrorists. This paper discusses the use of GNSS in critical tracking applications, addressing the mitigation of GNSS security issues, augmentation systems and communication systems in order to provide highly robust and survivable tracking systems.

Continuous biometric authentication : can it be more practical?

Continuous biometric authentication schemes (CBAS) are built around the biometrics supplied by user behavioural characteristics and continuously check the identity of the user throughout the session. The current literature for CBAS primarily focuses on the accuracy of the system in order to reduce false alarms. However, these attempts do not consider various issues that might affect practicality in real world applications and continuous authentication scenarios. One of the main issues is that the presented CBAS are based on several samples of training data either of both intruder and valid users or only the valid users' profile. This means that historical profiles for either the legitimate users or possible attackers should be available or collected before prediction time. However, in some cases it is impractical to gain the biometric data of the user in advance (before detection time). Another issue is the variability of the behaviour of the user between the registered profile obtained during enrollment, and the profile from the testing phase. The aim of this paper is to identify the limitations in current CBAS in order to make them more practical for real world applications. Also, the paper discusses a new application for CBAS not requiring any training data either from intruders or from valid users.

PIPP #2 : Pedestrian Interaction Patch Project

Presented as part of the Sampled Festival at Sadlers Wells UK in January 2009, PIPP #2 continues the exploration of the first installation (PIPP #1 Leeds) and asks audiences to connect with an interactive work presented in the foyer of a major dance festival. Literally choreographing their own dances on the walls of the venue, pedestrians re-connect with the architectural surrounds generating unique memories of self.

Development of a novel rolling-circle amplification technique to detect Banana streak virus which also discriminates between integrated and episomal virus sequences

Bananas are hosts to a large number of banana streak virus (BSV) species. However, diagnostic methods for BSV are inadequate because of the considerable genetic and serological diversity amongst BSV isolates and the presence of integrated BSV sequences in some banana cultivars which leads to false positives. In this study, a sequence non-specific, rolling-circle amplification (RCA) technique was developed and shown to overcome these limitations for the detection and subsequent characterisation of BSV isolates infecting banana. This technique was shown to discriminate between integrated and episomal BSV DNA, specifically detecting the latter in several banana cultivars known to contain episomal and/or integrated sequences of Banana streak Mysore virus (BSMyV), Banana streak OL virus (BSOLV) and Banana streak GF virus (BSGFV). Using RCA, the presence of BSMyV and BSOLV was confirmed in Australia, while BSOLV, BSGFV, Banana streak Uganda I virus (BSUgIV), Banana streak Uganda L virus (BSUgLV) and Banana streak Uganda M virus (BSUgMV) were detected in Uganda. This is the first confirmed report of episomally-derived BSUglV, BSUgLV and BSUgMV in Uganda. As well as its ability to detect BSV, RCA was shown to detect two other pararetroviruses, Sugarcane bacilliform virus in sugarcane and Cauliflower mosaic virus in turnip.

Detection of anomalies from user profiles generated from system logs

We describe research into the identification of anomalous events and event patterns as manifested in computer system logs. Prototype software has been developed with a capability that identifies anomalous events based on usage patterns or user profiles, and alerts administrators when such events are identified. To reduce the number of false positive alerts we have investigated the use of different user profile training techniques and introduce the use of abstractions to group together applications which are related. Our results suggest that the number of false alerts that are generated is significantly reduced when a growing time window is used for user profile training and when abstraction into groups of applications is used.

A synthesizable hardware evolutionary algorithm design for unmanned aerial system real-time path planning

The main objective of this paper is to detail the development of a feasible hardware design based on Evolutionary Algorithms (EAs) to determine flight path planning for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) navigating terrain with obstacle boundaries. The design architecture includes the hardware implementation of Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) terrain and EA population memories within the hardware, as well as the EA search and evaluation algorithms used in the optimizing stage of path planning. A synthesisable Very-high-speed integrated circuit Hardware Description Language (VHDL) implementation of the design was developed, for realisation on a Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) platform. Simulation results show significant speedup compared with an equivalent software implementation written in C++, suggesting that the present approach is well suited for UAV real-time path planning applications.

Reproduction, mediation, and experience : virtual reality, motion capture and early modern theatre

This article investigates virtual reality representations of performance in London’s late sixteenth-century Rose Theatre, a venue that, by means of current technology, can once again challenge perceptions of space, performance, and memory. The VR model of The Rose represents a virtual recreation of this venue in as much detail as possible and attempts to recover graphic demonstrations of the trace memories of the performance modes of the day. The VR model is based on accurate archeological and theatre historical records and is easy to navigate. The introduction of human figures onto The Rose’s stage via motion capture allows us to explore the relationships between space, actor and environment. The combination of venue and actors facilitates a new way of thinking about how the work of early modern playwrights can be stored and recalled. This virtual theatre is thus activated to intersect productively with contemporary studies in performance; as such, our paper provides a perspective on and embodiment of the relation between technology, memory and experience. It is, at its simplest, a useful archiving project for theatrical history, but it is directly relevant to contemporary performance practice as well. Further, it reflects upon how technology and ‘re-enactments’ of sorts mediate the way in which knowledge and experience are transferred, and even what may be considered ‘knowledge.’ Our work provides opportunities to begin addressing what such intermedial confrontations might produce for ‘remembering, experiencing, thinking and imagining.’ We contend that these confrontations will enhance live theatre performance rather than impeding or disrupting contemporary performance practice. Our ‘paper’ is in the form of a video which covers the intellectual contribution while also permitting a demonstration of the interventions we are discussing.

Negative mood, implicit alcohol-related memory, and alcohol use in young adults: The moderating effect of alcohol expectancy

Objective Alcohol-related implicit (preconscious) cognitive processes are established and unique predictors of alcohol use, but most research in this area has focused on alcohol-related implicit cognition and anxiety. This study extends this work into the area of depressed mood by testing a cognitive model that combines traditional explicit (conscious and considered) beliefs, implicit alcohol-related memory associations (AMAs), and self-reported drinking behavior. Method Using a sample of 106 university students, depressed mood was manipulated using a musical mood induction procedure immediately prior to completion of implicit then explicit alcohol-related cognition measures. A bootstrapped two-group (weak/strong expectancies of negative affect and tension reduction) structural equation model was used to examine how mood changes and alcohol-related memory associations varied across groups. Results Expectancies of negative affect moderated the association of depressed mood and AMAs, but there was no such association for tension reduction expectancy. Conclusion Subtle mood changes may unconsciously trigger alcohol-related memories in vulnerable individuals. Results have implications for addressing subtle fluctuations in depressed mood among young adults at risk of alcohol problems.

Technology, memory and experience : virtual reality, motion capture and early modern theatre

This paper investigates virtual reality representations of performance in London’s late sixteenth-century Rose Theatre, a venue that, by means of current technology, can once again challenge perceptions of space, performance, and memory. The VR model of The Rose becomes a Camillo device in that it represents a virtual recreation of this venue in as much detail as possible and attempts to recover graphic demonstrations of the trace memories of the performance modes of the day. The VR model is based on accurate archeological and theatre historical records and is easy to navigate. The introduction of human figures onto The Rose’s stage via motion capture allows us to explore the relationships between space, actor and environment. The combination of venue and actors facilitates a new way of thinking about how the work of early modern playwrights can be stored and recalled. This virtual theatre is thus activated to intersect productively with contemporary studies in performance; as such, our paper provides a perspective on and embodiment of the relation between technology, memory and experience. It is, at its simplest, a useful archiving project for theatrical history, but it is directly relevant to contemporary performance practice as well. Further, it reflects upon how technology and ‘re-enactments’ of sorts mediate the way in which knowledge and experience are transferred, and even what may be considered ‘knowledge.’ Our work provides opportunities to begin addressing what such intermedial confrontations might produce for ‘remembering, experiencing, thinking and imagining.’ We contend that these confrontations will enhance live theatre performance rather than impeding or disrupting contemporary performance practice. This paper intersects with the CFP’s ‘Performing Memory’ and ‘Memory Lab’ themes. Our presentation (which includes a demonstration of the VR model and the motion capture it requires) takes the form of two closely linked papers that share a single abstract. The two papers will be given by two people, one of whom will be physically present in Utrecht, the other participating via Skype.