Modelling resilience in a water supply system : contrasting conditions of drought and flood

This paper presents an approach to modelling the resilience of a generic (potable) water supply system. The system is contextualized as a meta-system consisting of three subsystems to represent the natural catchment, the water treatment plant and the water distribution infrastructure for urban use. An abstract mathematical model of the meta-system is disaggregated progressively to form a cascade of equations forming a relational matrix of models. This allows the investigation of commonly implicit relationships between various operational components within the meta system, the in-depth understanding of specific system components and influential factors and the incorporation of explicit disturbances to explore system behaviour. Consequently, this will facilitate long-term decision making to achieve sustainable solutions for issues such as, meeting a growing demand or managing supply-side influences in the meta-system under diverse water availability regimes. This approach is based on the hypothesis that the means to achieve resilient supply of water may be better managed by modelling the effects of changes at specific levels that have a direct or in some cases indirect impact on higher-order outcomes. Additionally, the proposed strategy allows the definition of approaches to combine disparate data sets to synthesise previously missing or incomplete higher-order information, a scientifically robust means to define and carry out meta-analyses using knowledge from diverse yet relatable disciplines relevant to different levels of the system and for enhancing the understanding of dependencies and inter-dependencies of variable factors at various levels across the meta-system. The proposed concept introduces an approach for modelling a complex infrastructure system as a meta system which consists of a combination of bio-ecological, technical and socio-technical subsystems.

Pandemic (H1N1) Influenza 2009 and Australian emergency departments : implications for policy, practice and pandemic preparedness

Objective: To describe the reported impact of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 on EDs, so as to inform future pandemic policy, planning and response management. Methods: This study comprised an issue and theme analysis of publicly accessible literature, data from jurisdictional health departments, and data obtained from two electronic surveys of ED directors and ED staff. The issues identified formed the basis of policy analysis and evaluation. Results: Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 had a significant impact on EDs with presentation for patients with ‘influenza-like illness’ up to three times that of the same time in previous years. Staff reported a range of issues, including poor awareness of pandemic plans, patient and family aggression, chaotic information flow to themselves and the public, heightened stress related to increased workloads and lower levels of staffing due to illness, family care duties and redeployment of staff to flu clinics. Staff identified considerable discomfort associated with prolonged times wearing personal protective equipment. Staff believed that the care of non-flu patients was compromised during the pandemic as a result of overwork, distraction from core business and the difficulties associated with accommodating infectious patients in an environment that was not conducive. Conclusions: This paper describes the breadth of the impact of pandemics on ED operations. It identifies a need to address a range of industrial, management and procedural issues. In particular, there is a need for a single authoritative source of information, the re-engineering of EDs to accommodate infectious patients and organizational changes to enable rapid deployment of alternative sources of care.

Assessment of the health impacts of the 2011 summer floods in Brisbane

Objective To assess the effects of the 2011 floods in Brisbane, Australia, on residents’ physical and mental health. Methods Residents who had been affected by the floods completed a community-based survey that examined the direct impact of flooding on households and their perceived physical and mental health. Outcome variables included overall and respiratory health and mental health outcomes related to psychological distress, sleep quality, and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the association between flooding and perceived health outcome variables, adjusted for current health status and sociodemographic factors. Results Residents whose households were directly affected by flooding were more likely to report poor overall (Odds Ratio [OR] 5.3; 95% CI, 2.8-10.1) and respiratory (OR 2.3; 95% CI, 1.1-4.6) health, psychological distress (OR 1.9; 95% CI, 1.1-3.5), poor sleep quality (OR 2.3; 95% CI, 1.2-4.4), and probable PTSD (OR 2.3; 95% CI, 1.2-4.5). Conclusions The 2011 Brisbane floods had significant impact on the physical and psychosocial health of residents. Improved support strategies may need to be integrated into existing disaster management programs to reduce flood-related health impacts, particularly those related to mental health.

Living through extreme weather events and natural disasters: How resilient are our high-rise high-density typologies?

The inner city Brisbane suburbs of the West End peninsula are poised for redevelopment. Located within walking distance to CBD workplaces, home to Queensland’s highest value cultural precinct, and high quality riverside parklands, there is currently a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to redevelop parts of the suburb to create a truly urban neighbourhood. According to a local community association, local residents agree and embrace the concept of high-density living, but are opposed to the high-rise urban form (12 storeys) advocated by the City’s planning authority (BCC, 2011) and would prefer to see medium-rise (5-8 storeys) medium-density built form. Brisbane experienced a major flood event which inundated the peninsula suburbs of West End in summer January 2011. The vulnerability of taller buildings to the vagaries of climate and more extreme weather events and their reliance on main electricity was exposed when power outages immediately before, during and after the flood disaster seriously limited occupants’ access and egress when elevators were disabled. Not all buildings were flooded but dwellings quickly became unliveable due to disabled air-conditioning. Some tall buildings remained uninhabitable for several weeks after the event. This paper describes an innovative design research method applied to the complex problem of resilient, sustainable neighbourhood form in subtropical cities, in which a thorough comparative analysis of a range of multiple-dwelling types has revealed the impact that government policy regarding design of the physical environment has on a community’s resilience. The outcomes advocate the role of climate-responsive design in averting the rising human capital and financial costs of natural disasters and climate change.

Emergency Health Services (EHS) : demand and service delivery models. [Monograph 2 : Queensland EHS users’ profile]

Emergency health is a critical component of Australia’s health system and one which is increasingly congested from growing demand and blocked access to inpatient beds. The Emergency Health Services Queensland (EHSQ) study aims to identify the factors driving increased demand for emergency health and to evaluate strategies which may safely reduce the future demand growth. This monograph addresses the characteristics of users of emergency health services with an aim to identify those that appear to contribute to demand growth. This study utilises data on patients treated by Emergency Departments (ED) and Queensland Ambulance Service (QAS) across Queensland. ED data was derived from the Emergency Department Information System (EDIS) for the period 2001-02 through to 2010-11. Ambulance data was extracted from the QAS’ Ambulance Information Management System (AIMS) and electronic Ambulance Report Form (eARF) for the period 2001-02 through to 2009-10. Due to discrepancies and comparability issues for ED data, this monograph compares data from the 2003-04 time period with 2010-11 data for 21 of the reporting EDs. Also a snapshot of users for the 2010-11 financial year for 31 reporting EDs is used to describe the characteristics of users and to compare those characteristics with population demographics. For QAS data, the 2002-03 and 2009-10 time periods were selected for detailed analyses to identify trends. • Demand for emergency health care services is increasing, representing both increased population and increased relative utilisation. Per capita demand for ED attention has increased by 2% per annum over the last decade and for ambulance attention by 3.7% per annum. • The growth in ED demand is prominent in more urgent triage categories with actual decline in less urgent patients. An estimated 55% of patients attend hospital EDs outside of normal working hours. There is no evidence that patients presenting out of hours are significantly different to those presenting within working hours; they have similar triage assessments and outcomes. • Patients suffering from injuries and poisoning comprise 28% of the ED workload (an increase of 65% in the study period), whilst declines of 32% in cardiovascular and circulatory conditions, and musculoskeletal problems have been observed. • 25.6% of patients attending EDs are admitted to hospital. 19% of admitted patients and 7% of patients who die in the ED are triage category 4 or 5 on arrival. • The average age of ED patients is 35.6 years. Demand has grown in all age groups and amongst both men and women. Men have higher utilisation rates for ED in all age groups. The only group where the growth rate in women has exceeded men is in the 20-29 age group; this growth is particularly in the injury and poisoning categories. • Considerable attention has been paid publicly to ED performance criteria. It is worth noting that 50% of all patients were treated within 33 minutes of arrival. • Patients from lower socioeconomic areas appear to have higher utilisation rates and the utilisation rate for indigenous people appears to exceed those of European and other backgrounds. The utilisation rates for immigrant people is generally less than that of Australian born however it has not been possible to eliminate the confounding impact of different age and socioeconomic profiles. • Demand for ambulance service is also increasing at a rate that exceeds population growth. Utilisation rates have increased by an average of 5% per annum in Queensland compared to 3.6% nationally, and the utilisation rate in Queensland is 27% higher than the national average. • The growth in ambulance utilisation has also been amongst the more urgent categories of dispatch and utilisation rates are higher in rural and regional areas than in the metropolitan area. The demand for ambulance increases with age but the growth in demand for ambulance service has been more prominent in younger age groups. These findings contribute significantly to an understanding of the growth in demand for emergency health. It shows that the growth is amongst patients in genuine need of emergency healthcare and public rhetoric that the congestion of emergency health services is due to inappropriate attendees is unable to be substantiated. The consistency of the growth in demand over the last decade reflects not only the changing demographics of the Australian population but also the changes in health status, standards of acute health care and other social factors. The growth is also amongst patients with acute injury and poisoning which is inconsistent with rates of chronic disease as a fundamental driver. We have also interviewed patients in regard to their decision making choices for acute health care and the factors that influence these decisions and this will be the subject of a third Monograph and publications.

Quantitative approaches to comparing communication patterns on Twitter

To date, the available literature mainly discusses Twitter activity patterns in the context of individual case studies, while comparative research on a large number of communicative events and their dynamics and patterns is missing. By conducting a comparative study of more than 40 different cases (covering topics such as elections, natural disasters, corporate crises, and televised events) we identify a number of distinct types of discussion that can be observed on Twitter. Drawing on a range of communicative metrics, we show that thematic and contextual factors influence the usage of different communicative tools available to Twitter users, such as original tweets, @replies, retweets, and URLs. Based on this first analysis of the overall metrics of Twitter discussions, we also demonstrate stable patterns in the use of Twitter in the context of major topics and events.

Ambulance use is associated with higher self-rated illness seriousness : user attitudes and perceptions

Objectives The objective was to study the role and effect of patients' perceptions on reasons for using ambulance services in Queensland, Australia. Methods A cross-sectional survey was conducted of patients (n = 911) presenting via ambulance or self-transport at eight public hospital emergency departments (EDs). The survey included perceived illness severity, attitudes toward ambulance, and reasons for using ambulance. A theoretical framework was developed to inform this study. Results Ambulance users had significantly higher self-rated perceived seriousness, urgency, and pain than self-transports. They were also more likely to agree that ambulance services are for everyone to use, regardless of the severity of their conditions. In compared to self-transports, likelihood of using an ambulance increased by 26% for every unit increase in perceived seriousness; and patients who had not used an ambulance in the 6 months prior to the survey were 66% less likely to arrive by ambulance. Patients who had presented via ambulance stated they considered the urgency (87%) or severity (84%) of their conditions as reasons for calling the ambulance. Other reasons included requiring special care (76%), getting higher priority at the ED (34%), not having a car (34%), and financial concerns (17%). Conclusions Understanding patients' perceptions is essential in explaining their actions and developing safe and effective health promotion programs. Individuals use ambulances for various reasons and justifications according to their beliefs, attitudes, and sociodemographic conditions. Policies to reduce and manage demand for such services need to address both general opinions and specific attitudes toward emergency health services to be effective.

At times of crisis, Twitter shines brightest

By any measure, 2011 was a year marked by disasters. In Australia, it began with major flooding which saw vast portions of the state of Queensland, including Brisbane and surrounding areas, under water. A significant earthquake caused massive destruction and serious loss of life in Christchurch, New Zealand. And a 9.0 quake off the Sendai coast caused an unprecedented tsunami in Japan and led to the Fukushima meltdown. All this before the end of March; later months would see a range of human-made crises from the Arab Spring to the London riots.

Towards distributed citizen participation : lessons from WikiLeaks and the Queensland floods

This paper examines the rapid and ad hoc development and interactions of participative citizen communities during acute events, using the examples of the 2011 floods in Queensland, Australia, and the global controversy surrounding Wikileaks and its spokesman, Julian Assange. The self-organising community responses to such events which can be observed in these cases bypass or leapfrog, at least temporarily, most organisational or administrative hurdles which may otherwise frustrate the establishment of online communities; they fast-track the processes of community development and structuration. By understanding them as a form of rapid prototyping, e-democracy initiatives can draw important lessons from observing the community activities around such acute events.

Everyday preschool talk about Christchurch earthquakes

This article investigates young children’s interactions with their peers and teachers following the events of the Christchurch earthquakes in New Zealand on September 2010 and February 2011. Drawing on conversation analysis and psychological literature, we focus on one outdoor excursion to visit a broken water pipe caused by the earthquake to show how the teacher and children mutually accomplished trouble telling and storying. A particular feature of talk was the use of pivotal utterances to transition from talking about the damaged environment, to talking about reflections of actual earthquake events. This article shows how teachers initiate and prompt children’s informal and spontaneous story telling as an interactional resource for discussing traumatic events.

Immigrants and the utilization of hospital emergency departments

BACKGROUND: Immigrants with language barriers are at high risk of having poor access to health care services. However, several studies have indicated that immigrants tend to use emergency departments (EDs) as their primary source of care at the expense of primary care. This may place an additional burden on already overcrowded EDs and lead to a low level of patient satisfaction with ED care. The study was to review if immigrants utilize ED care differently from host populations and to assess immigrants’ satisfaction with ED care. DATA SOURCES: Studies about immigrants' utilization of EDs in Australia and worldwide were reviewed. RESULTS: There are confl icting results in the literature about the pattern of ED care use among immigrants. Some studies have shown higher utilization by immigrants compared to host populations and others have shown lower utilization. Overall, immigrants use ED care heavily, make inappropriate visits to EDs, have a longer length of stay in EDs, and are less satisfi ed with ED care as compared to host populations. CONCLUSIONS: Immigrants might use ED care differently from host populations due to language and cultural barriers. There is sparse Australian literature regarding immigrants' access to health care including ED care. To ensure equity, further research is needed to inform policy when planning health care provision to immigrants. KEY WORDS: Emergency department; Health service; Immigrants; Language; Utilization

In the Wake of Cyclone Yasi : Facilitation and Evaluation in Community Narrative-Driven Projects

On 3 February 2011, Cyclone Yasi struck the coast of North Queensland, causing widespread damage. The cyclone destroyed the small coastal town of Cardwell, about 165 kilometres north of Townsville, Queensland. This chapter serves as a case study of a collaborative outreach project mobilised in response to this disaster in North Queensland. A public history research team, consisting of practitioners from the Queensland University of Technology’s Creative Industries Faculty, with the support of the Oral History Association of Australia, Queensland branch, partnered with the Cardwell and District Historical Society to support the society to collect community narratives in the wake of Cyclone Yasi.

Usability of small crisis data sets in the absence of big data

Big data is big news in almost every sector including crisis communication. However, not everyone has access to big data and even if we have access to big data, we often do not have necessary tools to analyze and cross reference such a large data set. Therefore this paper looks at patterns in small data sets that we have ability to collect with our current tools to understand if we can find actionable information from what we already have. We have analyzed 164390 tweets collected during 2011 earthquake to find out what type of location specific information people mention in their tweet and when do they talk about that. Based on our analysis we find that even a small data set that has far less data than a big data set can be useful to find priority disaster specific areas quickly.

Evaluating the effectiveness of heat warning systems : a systematic review of epidemiological evidence

Objectives To review the existing research on the effectiveness of heat warning systems (HWSs) in saving lives and reducing harm. Methods A systematic search of major databases was conducted, using “heat, heatwave, high temperature, hot temperature, OR hot climate” AND “warning system”. Results Fifteen articles were retrieved. Six studies asserted that fewer people died of excessive heat after HWS implementation. HWS was associated with reduction in ambulance use. One study estimated the benefits of HWS to be 468millionforsaving117livescomparedto210,000 costs of running the system. Eight studies showed that mere availability of HWS did not lead to behavioral changes. Perceived threat of heat dangers to self/others was the main factor related to heeding warnings and taking proper actions. However, costs and barriers associated with taking protective actions, such as costs of running air conditioners, were of significant concern particularly to the poor. Conclusions Research in this area is limited. Prospective designs applying health behavior theories should establish whether HWS can produce the health benefits they are purported to achieve by identifying the target vulnerable groups.

Are heat warning systems effective?

Heatwaves are associated with significant health risks particularly among vulnerable groups. To minimize these risks, heat warning systems have been implemented. The question therefore is how effective these systems are in saving lives and reducing heat-related harm. We systematically searched and reviewed 15 studies which examined this. Six studies asserted that fewer people died of excessive heat after the implementation of heat warning systems. Demand for ambulance decreased following the implementation of these systems. One study also estimated the costs of running heat warning systems at US$210,000 compared to the US$468 million benefits of saving 117 lives. The remaining eight studies investigated people?s response to heat warning systems and taking appropriate actions against heat harms. Perceived threat of heat dangers emerged as the main factor related to heeding the warnings and taking proper actions. However, barriers, such as costs of running air-conditioners, were of significant concern, particularly to the poor. The weight of the evidence suggests that heat warning systems are effective in reducing mortality and, potentially, morbidity. However, their effectiveness may be mediated by cognitive, emotive and socio-demographic characteristics. More research is urgently required into the cost-effectiveness of heat warning systems? measures and improving the utilization of the services.