Using operations research methodologies to improve operating theatre scheduling

A hospital consists of a number of wards, units and departments that provide a variety of medical services and interact on a day-to-day basis. Nearly every department within a hospital schedules patients for the operating theatre (OT) and most wards receive patients from the OT following post-operative recovery. Because of the interrelationships between units, disruptions and cancellations within the OT can have a flow-on effect to the rest of the hospital. This often results in dissatisfied patients, nurses and doctors, escalating waiting lists, inefficient resource usage and undesirable waiting times. The objective of this study is to use Operational Research methodologies to enhance the performance of the operating theatre by improving elective patient planning using robust scheduling and improving the overall responsiveness to emergency patients by solving the disruption management and rescheduling problem. OT scheduling considers two types of patients: elective and emergency. Elective patients are selected from a waiting list and scheduled in advance based on resource availability and a set of objectives. This type of scheduling is referred to as ‘offline scheduling’. Disruptions to this schedule can occur for various reasons including variations in length of treatment, equipment restrictions or breakdown, unforeseen delays and the arrival of emergency patients, which may compete for resources. Emergency patients consist of acute patients requiring surgical intervention or in-patients whose conditions have deteriorated. These may or may not be urgent and are triaged accordingly. Most hospitals reserve theatres for emergency cases, but when these or other resources are unavailable, disruptions to the elective schedule result, such as delays in surgery start time, elective surgery cancellations or transfers to another institution. Scheduling of emergency patients and the handling of schedule disruptions is an ‘online’ process typically handled by OT staff. This means that decisions are made ‘on the spot’ in a ‘real-time’ environment. There are three key stages to this study: (1) Analyse the performance of the operating theatre department using simulation. Simulation is used as a decision support tool and involves changing system parameters and elective scheduling policies and observing the effect on the system’s performance measures; (2) Improve viability of elective schedules making offline schedules more robust to differences between expected treatment times and actual treatment times, using robust scheduling techniques. This will improve the access to care and the responsiveness to emergency patients; (3) Address the disruption management and rescheduling problem (which incorporates emergency arrivals) using innovative robust reactive scheduling techniques. The robust schedule will form the baseline schedule for the online robust reactive scheduling model.

Bollywood Extras

"Bollywood Extras" has been described as a bit like Vladimir Nabokov's "Lolita" (1955) meets Nathanael West's "Day of the Locust" (1939). Unlike those two classics, this new novel by Dr D. Bruno Starrs is set in 21st Century India's Hindi-language film industry epicenter known as 'Bollywood', Mumbai's answer to America's 'Hollywood'. And there is another major difference: the story (i.e. the narrative interaction between an American Extras Casting Agent, 'Dr Arden Pyle', an under-age wannabe Bollywood starlet, 'Chandy', and the despicable but wealthy Indian man who stalks her, 'Ishmail'), is all staged against a backdrop of rabid religious terrorism. Written with the unique black comedic and literary flair Dr D. Bruno Starrs is renown for, this, his 3rd full-length novel, boldly captures the feel of Mumbai and the small-time players in its big-time film industry, with style, humor and originality. Tom Flood, winner of the Miles Franklin Literary Award and founder of Flood Manuscripts, said this of the novel's second last draft: "What is best about 'Bollywood Extras' will likely be its albatross in the sliced bread world of mainstream publishing. Three strengths that make the work what it is - the length, the style, the intellectual capital - will be three strikes against it when it comes to the money. While I delight in rich language and agile invention, I've given you the reasons the trade ('legit') presses won't take 'Bollywood Extras'. Do I think you should you change it? No. I like it. Why ruin an interesting work for money?" As a professional assessor, Flood did, of course, offer many suggestions and these were duly implemented, although the author steadfastly adhered to the style he had already cemented, thus not changing in anyway what Flood refers to as its three strengths. Dr Starrs knew (having accessed Flood's professional services previously) that a 'Thumbs Up' from the best manuscript assessor in the country meant that Bollywood Extras was ready to be birthed. So, here it is: Dr Starrs has delivered his 3rd baby and 'christened' it "Bollywood Extras"!

Victoria's “Day in Prison Program” : an evaluation and critique

The use of “Day in Prison” programs to deter young adult offenders is a concept which originated in the United States and was replicated in Australia during the late 1970s. After almost a decade of uncertainty this model of ‘crime prevention’ re-emerged in Victoria with the introduction of a pilot “Day in Prison” program. This article traces the development and operation of the Victorian experience and provides evaluation research findings which conclude that coercive, intimidatory and degrading aversion techniques should not be utilised by the criminal justice system for the purposes of individual deterrence.

Transition to day care for older people in Taiwan : a grounded theory study

Adult day care centres provide a means whereby frail or disabled older people can remain living at home particularly when their family care-givers engage in waged work. In Taiwan, adult day care services appear to meet the cultural needs of both older people and their families for whom filial care is vital. Little research attention has been paid to the use of day care services in Taiwan, the uptake rate of which is low. This grounded theory study explored the ways in which older people and family care-givers construct meanings around the use of day care services in Taiwan. Forty-four semi-structured interviews were undertaken with older people, care-givers and day care centre managers. The findings from grounded theory data analysis bring focus to the assumptions and structures that underpin the process of transition to day care services. A key feature of this process is the reconstruction of personal identity as both the older people and family care-givers work to make sense of the relationship between the self and a changing social structure. Reconstructing identity in a shifting world is the core category of the study and reflects a process of reframing whereby older people came to new definitions of social responsibility and independence within the context of the day care centre. Similarly, the family care-givers actively reformulated the concept of filial piety as they interacted with and interpreted the changes in economic and social conditions in Taiwan.

The traditional rationale of the arm’s length approach to transfer pricing : should the separate accounting model be maintained for modern multinational entities?

This article examines the current transfer pricing regime to consider whether it is a sound model to be applied to modern multinational entities. The arm's length price methodology is examined to enable a discussion of the arguments in favour of such a regime. The article then refutes these arguments concluding that, contrary to the very reason multinational entities exist, applying arm's length rules involves a legal fiction of imagining transactions between unrelated parties. Multinational entities exist to operate in a way that independent entities would not, which the arm's length rules fail to take into account. As such, there is clearly an air of artificiality in applying the arm's length standard. To demonstrate this artificiality with respect to modern multinational entities, multinational banks are used as an example. The article concluded that the separate entity paradigm adopted by the traditional transfer pricing regime is incongruous with the economic theory of modern multinational enterprises.

Branch-length estimation bias misleads molecular dating for a vertebrate mitochondrial phylogeny

Despite recent methodological advances in inferring the time-scale of biological evolution from molecular data, the fundamental question of whether our substitution models are sufficiently well specified to accurately estimate branch-lengths has received little attention. I examine this implicit assumption of all molecular dating methods, on a vertebrate mitochondrial protein-coding dataset. Comparison with analyses in which the data are RY-coded (AG → R; CT → Y) suggests that even rates-across-sites maximum likelihood greatly under-compensates for multiple substitutions among the standard (ACGT) NT-coded data, which has been subject to greater phylogenetic signal erosion. Accordingly, the fossil record indicates that branch-lengths inferred from the NT-coded data translate into divergence time overestimates when calibrated from deeper in the tree. Intriguingly, RY-coding led to the opposite result. The underlying NT and RY substitution model misspecifications likely relate respectively to “hidden” rate heterogeneity and changes in substitution processes across the tree, for which I provide simulated examples. Given the magnitude of the inferred molecular dating errors, branch-length estimation biases may partly explain current conflicts with some palaeontological dating estimates.

Malnutrition and its impact on cost of hospitalization, length of stay, readmission and 3-year mortality

Background & aims: The confounding effect of disease on the outcomes of malnutrition using diagnosis-related groups (DRG) has never been studied in a multidisciplinary setting. This study aims to determine the prevalence of malnutrition in a tertiary hospital in Singapore and its impact on hospitalization outcomes and costs, controlling for DRG. Methods: This prospective cohort study included a matched case control study. Subjective Global Assessment was used to assess the nutritional status on admission of 818 adults. Hospitalization outcomes over 3 years were adjusted for gender, age, ethnicity, and matched for DRG. Results: Malnourished patients (29%) had longer hospital stays (6.9 ± 7.3 days vs. 4.6 ± 5.6 days, p < 0.001) and were more likely to be readmitted within 15 days (adjusted relative risk = 1.9, 95%CI 1.1–3.2, p = 0.025). Within a DRG, the mean difference between actual cost of hospitalization and the average cost for malnourished patients was greater than well-nourished patients (p = 0.014). Mortality was higher in malnourished patients at 1 year (34% vs. 4.1 %), 2 years (42.6% vs. 6.7%) and 3 years (48.5% vs. 9.9%); p < 0.001 for all. Overall, malnutrition was a significant predictor of mortality (adjusted hazard ratio = 4.4, 95% CI 3.3-6.0, p < 0.001). Conclusions: Malnutrition was evident in up to one third of the inpatients and led to poor hospitalization outcomes and survival as well as increased costs of care, even after matching for DRG. Strategies to prevent and treat malnutrition in the hospital and post-discharge are needed.

Shortening cemented femoral implants. An in vitro investigation to quantify exeter femoral implant rotational stability vs simulated implant length

The Exeter stems vary in length from 90 to 150 mm. The shorter stems generally have lower offsets. The purpose of this study was to determine if length of stem, with fixed offset, affected rotational stability. Mechanical testing was carried out on 10 implant-cement constructs with 2 loading profiles, rising from chair and stair climbing, at different simulated implant lengths using purpose-built apparatus. This paper presents a mechanism for clinically observed rotational stability and explains the mechanical characteristics required for rotational stability in Exeter femoral stems. © 2012.

Methodological challenges when estimating the effects of season and seasonal exposures on birth outcomes

Background Many previous studies have found seasonal patterns in birth outcomes, but with little agreement about which season poses the highest risk. Some of the heterogeneity between studies may be explained by a previously unknown bias. The bias occurs in retrospective cohorts which include all births occurring within a fixed start and end date, which means shorter pregnancies are missed at the start of the study, and longer pregnancies are missed at the end. Our objective was to show the potential size of this bias and how to avoid it. Methods To demonstrate the bias we simulated a retrospective birth cohort with no seasonal pattern in gestation and used a range of cohort end dates. As a real example, we used a cohort of 114,063 singleton births in Brisbane between 1 July 2005 and 30 June 2009 and examined the bias when estimating changes in gestation length associated with season (using month of conception) and a seasonal exposure (temperature). We used survival analyses with temperature as a time-dependent variable. Results We found strong artificial seasonal patterns in gestation length by month of conception, which depended on the end date of the study. The bias was avoided when the day and month of the start date was just before the day and month of the end date (regardless of year), so that the longer gestations at the start of the study were balanced by the shorter gestations at the end. After removing the fixed cohort bias there was a noticeable change in the effect of temperature on gestation length. The adjusted hazard ratios were flatter at the extremes of temperature but steeper between 15 and 25°C. Conclusions Studies using retrospective birth cohorts should account for the fixed cohort bias by removing selected births to get unbiased estimates of seasonal health effects.