A revisit to Pope's cohort analysis

Gulland's [Gulland, J.A., 1965. Estimation of mortality rates. Annex to Arctic Fisheries Working Group Report (meeting in Hamburg, January 1965). ICES. C.M. 1965, Doc. No. 3 (mimeographed)] virtual population analysis (VPA) is commonly used for studying the dynamics of harvested fish populations. However, it necessitates the solving of a nonlinear equation for the instantaneous rate of fishing mortality of the fish in a population. Pope [Pope, J.G., 1972. An investigation of the accuracy of Virtual Population Analysis using cohort analysis. ICNAF Res. Bull. 9, 65-74. Also available in D.H. Cushing (ed.) (1983), Key Papers on Fish Populations, p. 291-301, IRL Press, Oxford, 405 p.] eliminated this necessity in his cohort analysis by approximating its underlying age- and time-dependent population model. His approximation has since become one of the most commonly used age- and time-dependent fish population models in fisheries science. However, some of its properties are not well understood. For example, many assert that it describes the dynamics of a fish population, from which the catch of fish is taken instantaneously in the middle of the year. Such an assertion has never been proven, nor has its implied instantaneous rate of fishing mortality of the fish of a particular age at a particular time been examined, nor has its implied catch equation been derived from a general catch equation. In this paper, we prove this assertion, examine its implied instantaneous rate of fishing mortality of the fish of a particular age at a particular time, derive its implied catch equation from a general catch equation, and comment on how to structure an age- and time-dependent population model to ensure its internal consistency. This work shows that Gulland's (1965) virtual population analysis and Pope's (1972) cohort analysis lie at the opposite end of a continuous spectrum as a general model for a seasonally occurring fishery; Pope's (1972) approximation implies an infinitely large instantaneous rate of fishing mortality of the fish of a particular age at a particular time in a fishing season of zero length; and its implied catch equation has an undefined instantaneous rate of fishing mortality of the fish in a population, but a well-defined cumulative instantaneous rate of fishing mortality of the fish in the population. This work also highlights a need for a more careful treatment of the times of start and end of a fishing season in fish population models.

Maximum likelihood estimation of mortality and growth with individual variability from multiple length-frequency data

We consider estimation of mortality rates and growth parameters from length-frequency data of a fish stock and derive the underlying length distribution of the population and the catch when there is individual variability in the von Bertalanffy growth parameter L-infinity. The model is flexible enough to accommodate 1) any recruitment pattern as a function of both time and length, 2) length-specific selectivity, and 3) varying fishing effort over time. The maximum likelihood method gives consistent estimates, provided the underlying distribution for individual variation in growth is correctly specified. Simulation results indicate that our method is reasonably robust to violations in the assumptions. The method is applied to tiger prawn data (Penaeus semisulcatus) to obtain estimates of natural and fishing mortality.

Effects of fish density distribution and effort distribution on catchability

The effects of fish density distribution and effort distribution on the overall catchability coefficient are examined. Emphasis is also on how aggregation and effort distribution interact to affect overall catch rate [catch per unit effort (cpue)]. In particular, it is proposed to evaluate three indices, the catchability index, the knowledge parameter, and the aggregation index, to describe the effectiveness of targeting and the effects on overall catchability in the stock area. Analytical expressions are provided so that these indices can easily be calculated. The average of the cpue calculated from small units where fishing is random is a better index for measuring the stock abundance. The overall cpue, the ratio of lumped catch and effort, together with the average cpue, can be used to assess the effectiveness of targeting. The proposed methods are applied to the commercial catch and effort data from the Australian northern prawn fishery. The indices are obtained assuming a power law for the effort distribution as an approximation of targeting during the fishing operation. Targeting increased catchability in some areas by 10%, which may have important implications on management advice.

Evaluation of growth and changes in body composition following neonatal diagnosis of cystic fibrosis

Early deficits in nutritional status that might require specific treatment and early response to nutritional therapy were studied longitudinally in 25 infants with cystic fibrosis (CF) diagnosed by neonatal screening, using anthropometric and research body composition methodology, and evaluation of pancreatic function. At the time of confirmed diagnosis (mean 5.4 weeks), body mass, length, total body fat (TBF), and total body potassium (TBK) were all significantly reduced. Following diagnosis and commencement of therapy there was a normalization of weight, length, and TBK by 6-12 months of age, indicating catch-up growth. But in some individuals the response was incomplete, and as a group, mean total body fat remained significantly lower than normal at 1 year of age. Seven of 25 (28%) were pancreatic sufficient at diagnosis, and all but one had evidence of declining pancreatic function requiring the institution of pancreatic enzyme therapy during the next 1-9 months. The median age of commencement of enzyme therapy was 10 weeks (range 5 weeks to 11 months). These longitudinal assessments emphasize the dynamic changes occurring in absorptive function, body composition, and nutritional status following neonatal diagnosis of cystic fibrosis and may reflect previously described abnormalities of energy metabolism in this age group. Abnormal body composition is evident in most CF infants following diagnosis by neonatal screening but pancreatic damage may still be evolving. We suggest that early active nutritional therapy and surveillance for changes in pancreatic function are warranted in CF infants diagnosed by neonatal screening.

Survival, growth and quality of life in children after orthotopic liver transplantation: A 5 year experience

The aims of this study were to investigate outcome and to evaluate areas of potential ongoing concern after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) in children. Actuarial survival in relation to age and degree of undernutrition at the time of OLT was evaluated in 53 children (age 0.58-14.2 years) undergoing OLT for endstage liver disease. Follow-up studies of growth and quality of life were undertaken in those with a minimum follow-up period of 12 months (n = 26). The overall 3 year actuarial survival was 70%. Survival rates did not differ between age groups (actuarial 2 year survival for ages <1, 1-5 and >5 years were 70, 70 and 69% respectively) but did differ according to nutritional status at OLT (actuarial 2 year survival for children with Z scores for weight <-1 was 57%, >-1 was 95%; P = 0.004). Significant catch-up weight gain was observed by 18 months post-transplant, while height improved less rapidly. Quality of life (assessed by Vineland Adaptive Behaviour Scales incorporating socialization, daily living skills, communication and motor skills) was good (mean composite score 91 ± 19). All school-aged children except one were attending normal school. Two children had mild to moderate intellectual handicap related to post-operative intracerebral complications. Satisfactory long-term survival can be achieved after OLT in children regardless of age but the importance of pre-operative nutrition is emphasized. Survivors have an excellent chance of a good quality of life and of satisfactory catch-up weight gain and growth.

Pre-operative nutritional support in children with end-stage liver disease accepted for liver transplantation: An approach to management

Pre-operative nutritional support was studied in 28 children with end-stage liver disease awaiting orthotopic liver transplantation. Nasogastric supplemental administration of a standard semi-elemental enteral nutritional formula was compared with a similar formula enriched with branched chain amino acids, and with a group receiving oral nutrition only. The duration of treatment in all groups was similar (mean 90 days). Energy intakes in the supplemented groups were 120-150% of recommended daily intakes (RDI), whereas ad libitum intakes in the oral group ranged 58-100% RDI. A significant improvement in mean Z-score for body weight (denoting catch-up) was noted only in those children who received nasogastric supplements enriched with branched-chain amino acids. The standard enterally-fed group maintained their body weight and Z-scores did not change significantly. In contrast, body weight Z-scores in those fed orally declined significantly. Nutritional supportive therapy of malnourished children with end-stage liver disease can minimize or improve nutritional status in children awaiting liver transplantation. The use of nutritional formulae rich in branche-chain amino acids may have nutritional advantages in children with chronic liver disease which require further study and evaluation.

A generalized estimating equations approach for analysis of the impact of new technology on a trawl fishery

The article describes a generalized estimating equations approach that was used to investigate the impact of technology on vessel performance in a trawl fishery during 1988-96, while accounting for spatial and temporal correlations in the catch-effort data. Robust estimation of parameters in the presence of several levels of clustering depended more on the choice of cluster definition than on the choice of correlation structure within the cluster. Models with smaller cluster sizes produced stable results, while models with larger cluster sizes, that may have had complex within-cluster correlation structures and that had within-cluster covariates, produced estimates sensitive to the correlation structure. The preferred model arising from this dataset assumed that catches from a vessel were correlated in the same years and the same areas, but independent in different years and areas. The model that assumed catches from a vessel were correlated in all years and areas, equivalent to a random effects term for vessel, produced spurious results. This was an unexpected finding that highlighted the need to adopt a systematic strategy for modelling. The article proposes a modelling strategy of selecting the best cluster definition first, and the working correlation structure (within clusters) second. The article discusses the selection and interpretation of the model in the light of background knowledge of the data and utility of the model, and the potential for this modelling approach to apply in similar statistical situations.

Estimating equations for removal data analysis

We consider the problem of estimating a population size from successive catches taken during a removal experiment and propose two estimating functions approaches, the traditional quasi-likelihood (TQL) approach for dependent observations and the conditional quasi-likelihood (CQL) approach using the conditional mean and conditional variance of the catch given previous catches. Asymptotic covariance of the estimates and the relationship between the two methods are derived. Simulation results and application to the catch data from smallmouth bass show that the proposed estimating functions perform better than other existing methods, especially in the presence of overdispersion.

The impact of global positioning systems and plotters on fishing power in the northern prawn fishery, Australia

The impact of global positioning systems (GPS) and plotter systems on the relative fishing power of the northern prawn fishery fleet on tiger prawns (Penaeus esculentus Haswell, 1879, and P. semisulcatus de Haan, 1850) was investigated from commercial catch data. A generalized linear model was used to account for differences in fishing power between boats and changes in prawn abundance. It was found that boats that used a GPS alone had 4% greater fishing power than boats without a CPS. The addition of a plotter raised the power by 7% over boats without the equipment. For each year between the first to third that a fisher has been working with plotters, there is an additional 2 or 3% increase. It appears that when all boats have a GPS and plotter for at least 3 years, the fishing power of the fleet will increase by 12%. Management controls have reduced the efficiency of each boat and lowered the number of days available to fish, but this may not have been sufficient to counteract the increases. Further limits will be needed to maintain the desired levels of mortality.

Stock-recruitment relationships of the tiger prawns (Penaeus esculentus and Penaeus semisulcatus) in the Australian Northern Prawn Fishery

This paper investigates the stock-recruitment and equilibrium yield dynamics for the two species of tiger prawns (Penaeus esculentus and Penaeus semisulcatus) in Australia's most productive prawn fishery: the Northern Prawn Fishery. Commercial trawl logbooks for 1970-93 and research surveys are used to develop population models for these prawns. A population model that incorporates continuous recruitment is developed. Annual spawning stock and recruitment indices are then estimated from the population model. Spawning stock indices represent the abundance of female prawns that are likely to spawn; recruitment indices represent the abundance of all prawns less than a certain size. The relationships between spawning stock and subsequent recruitment (SRR), between recruitment and subsequent spawning stock (RSR), and between recruitment and commercial catch were estimated through maximum-likelihood models that incorporated autoregressive terms. Yield as a function of fishing effort was estimated by constraining to equilibrium the SRR and RSR. The resulting production model was then used to determine maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and its corresponding fishing effort (f(MSY)). Long-term yield estimates for the two tiger prawn species range between 3700 and 5300 t. The fishing effort at present is close to the level that should produce MSY for both species of tiger prawns. However, current landings, recruitment and spawning stock are below the equilibrium values predicted by the models. This may be because of uncertainty in the spawning stock-recruitment relationships, a change in carrying capacity, biased estimates of fishing effort, unreliable catch statistics, or simplistic assumptions about stock structure. Although our predictions of tiger prawn yields are uncertain, management will soon have to consider new measures to counteract the effects of future increases in fishing effort.

Mitigating undesirable impacts in the marine environment: A review of market-based management measures

Internationally, marine biodiversity conservation objectives are having an increasing influence on the management of commercial fisheries. While this is largely being implemented through Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) other management measures, such as market based instruments (MBIs), have proved to be effective at managing target species catch in fisheries and reducing environmental impacts in industries such as mining and tourism. Market-based management measures aim to mitigate the impacts of activities by better aligning the incentives their participants face with the objectives of management, changing their behavior as a consequence. In this paper, we review the potential of MBIs as management tools to mitigate undesirable environmental impacts associated with commercial fishing. Where they exist, examples of previous applications are described and the factors that influence their applicability and effectiveness are discussed. Several fishing methods and impacts are considered and suggest that whilst no single approach is most appropriate in all circumstances either replacing or complementing existing management arrangements with MBIs has the potential to improve environmental performance. This has a number of implications. From the environmental perspective they should enable levels of undesirable impacts such as damage to sensitive habitat or the bycatch of protected species of turtles, marine mammals, and seabirds to be reduced. The increased flexibility MBIs allow industry when developing solutions also has the potential to reduce costs to both the industry and managers, improving the cost-effectiveness of regulation as a result. Further, in the increasingly relevant case of MPAs the need for publicly funded compensation, often paid to industry when vessels are excluded from grounds, may also be significantly reduced if improved environmental performance makes it possible for some industry members to continue operating.

Total body potassium in cystic fibrosis

To further evaluate the nature of malnutrition, define at-risk groups, and confirm the efficacy of nutritional supplementation on body composition in cystic fibrosis (CF), we have conducted longitudinal and cross-sectional studies of total body potassium (TBK) in 161 unselected CF subjects aged 1 month to 17 years. TBK was determined by measurement of40K in a whole body counter, reflecting body cell mass (BCM), the vital work-performing and growing cellular component of the body. Compared with normal TBK data for age and sex from pooled measurements of 1,629 healthy children aged 1 week to 17 years, CF infants (n = 12) diagnosed by newborn screening were depleted in TBK at diagnosis and showed catch-up with therapy by 1 year; CF children aged 2-17 years (n = 140) showed a tendency for inadequate accretion of TBK (and thus BCM) with increasing age, although the normal correlation between TBK and weight and height was maintained in the majority suggesting a pattern of nutritional stunting of growth; and malnourished CF children (n = 9) showed significant catchup in TBK with long-term nutritional rehabilitation (85-98% of TBK predicted for weight and height). These studies suggest that potentially serious, but possibly correctable deficits, in the growth of the body cell mass as measured by TBK occur commonly in CF. These deficits may be established very early in life and if not corrected lead to progressive nutritional growth retardation with increasing age. © 1989 Raven Press, Ltd., New York.

Running Men

In this multi-screen installation, iconic male characters from Hollywood films are reconfigured to create infinitely looping scenes of running; trapping the characters in a kind of Nietchzen eternal recurrence. Stemming primarily from my investigation into anxiety as a shared social experience, the carefully edited, looped, and rotoscoped characters become avatars or surrogates for myself, and for the viewer. Through this editing, they are caught in a space of relentless confusion and paranoia – they run with, and from, anxiety. They are never caught by any unseen pursuers, but are equally unable to catch up to any unseen goal. These figures act as models of masculinity, they are objects of identification and emulation. Simultaneously, as celebrities, they are also fictions of the media sphere, both real and ethereal, they are impossible to grasp. In this duality, the work also references cinema’s tangled conflation of character and celebrity identity. It examines the subjective and intersubjective engagements we can have with popular culture, and the way that these engagements can as strategies to ‘make sense’ of social experiences. The work was exhibited in the Carriageworks space of ‘You Imagine What You Desire’, the 19th Biennale of Sydney.

Running men: The precarious, paranoid body in screen culture

This paper discusses my video installation Running Men as an example of how an artist’s appropriative engagements with screen images of the perilous body can reflect the technological zeitgeist of the last hundred years but also create a space of meditative and mediated reflection in Slavoj Žižek’s “endlessness” of the present-future. In this artwork, iconic male characters from Hollywood films are recontextualised to create infinitely looping scenes of running; trapping the characters in a kind of Nietchzen eternal recurrence that suspends them between impending violence and uncertain futures. Stemming primarily from my investigation into anxiety as a shared social experience, one perhaps primed by the increasing intensity of visual culture in the 21st century, these digitally reconfigured bodies become avatars or surrogates for myself, and for the viewer. Through selective editing, these emblematic figures are caught in a space of relentless confusion and paranoia – they run with, and from anxiety. They are never caught by any unseen pursuers, but are equally unable to catch up to any unseen goal. These figures map an historical trajectory of violence and masculinity as it has been projected through various iterations of screen culture Simultaneously, as celebrities, they are also fictions of the media sphere, both real and ethereal, they are impossible to grasp but paradoxically are objects of identification and emulation. In this duality, the work also references cinema’s tangled conflation of character and celebrity identity. This discussion will address the two distinct but connected sites and activities of body/image engagement. Firstly, the artistic process and conceptual ramifications of this activity, and secondly in the artwork’s potential as an installation to provide an opportunity for the viewer (like the artist) to reflect on the constructed-ness and complicated power structures at play in the representation of a gendered body.

Investigating the interactions of road users and pedestrians in a dynamic rail level crossing environment

There are 23,500 level crossings in Australia. In these types of environments it is important to understand what human factor issues are present and how road users and pedestrians engage with crossings. A series of on-site observations were performed over a 2-day period at a 3-track active crossing. This was followed by 52 interviews with local business owners and members of the public. Data were captured using a manual-coding scheme for recording and categorising violations. Over 700 separate road user and pedestrian violations were recorded, with representations in multiple categories. Time stamping revealed that the crossing was active for 59% of the time in some morning periods. Further, trains could take up to 4-min to arrive following its first activation. Many pedestrians jaywalked under side rails and around active boom gates. In numerous cases pedestrians put themselves at risk in order to beat or catch the approaching train, ignored signs to stop walking when the lights were flashing. Analysis of interview data identified themes associated with congestion, safety, and violations. This work offers insight into context specific issues associated with active level crossing protection.