Modeling electricity price events as point processes

Energy prices are highly volatile and often feature unexpected spikes. It is the aim of this paper to examine whether the occurrence of these extreme price events displays any regularities that can be captured using an econometric model. Here we treat these price events as point processes and apply Hawkes and Poisson autoregressive models to model the dynamics in the intensity of this process.We use load and meteorological information to model the time variation in the intensity of the process. The models are applied to data from the Australian wholesale electricity market, and a forecasting exercise illustrates both the usefulness of these models and their limitations when attempting to forecast the occurrence of extreme price events.

Understanding the actualization of affordances: A study in the process modeling context

The affordances concept describes the possibilities for goal-oriented action that technical objects offer to specified users. This notion has received growing attention from IS researchers. However, few studies have gone beyond contextualizing parts of the concept to a specific setting – the tip of the iceberg. In this research-in-progress paper, we report on our efforts to further develop the IS discipline’s understanding of affordances from informational objects. Specifically, we seek to extend extant theory on the origin and actualization of affordances. We develop a model that describes the process by which affordances are perceived and actualized and their dependence on information and actualization effort. We illustrate our emergent theory in the context of conceptual process models used by analysts for purposes of information systems analysis and design. We offer suggestions for operationalizing and testing this model empirically, and provide details about our design of a mixed-methods study currently in progress.

Shrinkage empirical likelihood estimator in longitudinal analysis with time-dependent covariates-application to modeling the health of Filipino children

The method of generalized estimating equations (GEE) is a popular tool for analysing longitudinal (panel) data. Often, the covariates collected are time-dependent in nature, for example, age, relapse status, monthly income. When using GEE to analyse longitudinal data with time-dependent covariates, crucial assumptions about the covariates are necessary for valid inferences to be drawn. When those assumptions do not hold or cannot be verified, Pepe and Anderson (1994, Communications in Statistics, Simulations and Computation 23, 939–951) advocated using an independence working correlation assumption in the GEE model as a robust approach. However, using GEE with the independence correlation assumption may lead to significant efficiency loss (Fitzmaurice, 1995, Biometrics 51, 309–317). In this article, we propose a method that extracts additional information from the estimating equations that are excluded by the independence assumption. The method always includes the estimating equations under the independence assumption and the contribution from the remaining estimating equations is weighted according to the likelihood of each equation being a consistent estimating equation and the information it carries. We apply the method to a longitudinal study of the health of a group of Filipino children.

The enemy of music : modeling the behavior of a cultural industry in crisis

The purpose of this explorative study is to contribute to the understanding of current music industry dynamics. The situation is undeniably quite dramatic: Since the turn of the millennium, the global music industry has declined by $ US 6.2 billion in value—a fall of 16.3% in constant dollar terms. IFPI, the trade organization representing the international recording industry, identifies a number of exogenous factors as the main drivers of the downturn. This article suggests that other factors, in addition to those identified by IFPI, may have contributed to the current difficulties. A model is presented which indicates that business strategies which were designed to cope with the challenging business environment have reduced product diversity, damaged profitability, and contributed to the problem they were intended to solve.

Generating natural language texts from business process models

Process Modeling is a widely used concept for understanding, documenting and also redesigning the operations of organizations. The validation and usage of process models is however affected by the fact that only business analysts fully understand them in detail. This is in particular a problem because they are typically not domain experts. In this paper, we investigate in how far the concept of verbalization can be adapted from object-role modeling to process models. To this end, we define an approach which automatically transforms BPMN process models into natural language texts and combines different techniques from linguistics and graph decomposition in a flexible and accurate manner. The evaluation of the technique is based on a prototypical implementation and involves a test set of 53 BPMN process models showing that natural language texts can be generated in a reliable fashion.

Business process model abstraction

In order to execute, study, or improve operating procedures, companies document them as business process models. Often, business process analysts capture every single exception handling or alternative task handling scenario within a model. Such a tendency results in large process specifications. The core process logic becomes hidden in numerous modeling constructs. To fulfill different tasks, companies develop several model variants of the same business process at different abstraction levels. Afterwards, maintenance of such model groups involves a lot of synchronization effort and is erroneous. We propose an abstraction technique that allows generalization of process models. Business process model abstraction assumes a detailed model of a process to be available and derives coarse-grained models from it. The task of abstraction is to tell significant model elements from insignificant ones and to reduce the latter. We propose to learn insignificant process elements from supplementary model information, e.g., task execution time or frequency of task occurrence. Finally, we discuss a mechanism for user control of the model abstraction level – an abstraction slider.

Dimensions of business processes quality (QoBP)

Conceptual modeling is an important tool for understanding and revealing weaknesses of business processes. Yet, the current practice in reengineering projects often considers simply the as-is process model as a brain-storming tool. This approach heavily relies on the intuition of the participants and misses a clear description of the quality requirements. Against this background, we identify four generic quality categories of business process quality, and populate them with quality requirements from related research. We refer to the resulting framework as the Quality of Business Process (QoBP) framework. Furthermore, we present the findings from applying the QoBP framework in a case study with a major Australian bank, showing that it helps to systematically fill the white space between as-is and to-be process modeling.

Understanding and impacting the practice of business process management

This presentation will explore how BPM research can seamlessly combine the academic requirement of rigor with the aim to impact the practice of Business Process Management. After a brief introduction into the research agendas as they are perceived by different BPM communities, two research projects will be discussed that illustrate how empirically-informed quantitative and qualitative research, combined with design science, can lead to outcomes that BPM practitioners are willing to adopt. The first project studies the practice of process modeling using Information Systems theory, and demonstrates how a better understanding of this practice can inform the design of modeling notations and methods. The second project studies the adoption of process management within organizations, and leads to models of how organizations can incrementally transition to greater levels of BPM maturity. The presentation will conclude with recommendations for how the BPM research and practitioner communities can increasingly benefit from each other.

Interaction modeling using BPMN

Process choreographies describe interactions between different business partners and the dependencies between these interactions. While different proposals were made for capturing choreographies at an implementation level, it remains unclear how choreographies should be described on a conceptual level.While the Business Process Modeling Notation (BPMN) is already in use for describing choreographies in terms of interconnected interface behavior models, this paper will introduce interaction modeling using BPMN. Such interaction models do not suffer from incompatibility issues and are better suited for human modelers. BPMN extensions are proposed and a mapping from interaction models to interface behavior models is presented.

On display : Ravensthorpe Wildflower Show and the assembly of place

Each September since 1983 in the rural Shire of Ravensthorpe, Western Australia, volunteers collect samples of up to 700 wildfl ower species which are then displayed in the Ravensthorpe Senior Citizens Centre from 9.00 am to 4.00 pm daily over a two-week period. This chapter offers an ethnographic interpretation of this enduring annual event focusing on the 25th show held in 2007. The study contributes to understanding the complex and nuanced role of local wildflower shows in shaping and supporting rural senses of place and of community. Importantly, this particular type of festival, and more specifically this local instance, foregrounds a less-remarked aspect of festivals, namely the (re)production and celebration of place-specific knowledge through validations of, and interconnections between, scientific flower classification and emotive experience. This feature, encapsulated in Laurel Lamperd’s poem above, invites consideration of the ways in which local place knowledge and the simultaneous (re)production of ‘place’ are constituted by a complex layering of rational, objective ways of knowing and those which emphasize emotions, aesthetics and memories. This rural wildflower show not only mobilises both the rational and the emotional in ‘making sense of the world’ for local residents and for tourists, but also offers insights into the production of place as constituted in and through relations between humans and non-human life forms (Cloke & Jones, 2001; Conradson, 2005; see also Chapter 6).

Applying Enterprise Architecture to Business Networks

Globalization, financial deregulation, economic turmoil, and technology breakthroughs are profoundly exposing organizations to business networks. Engaging these networks requires explicit planning from the strategic level down to the operational level of an organization, which significantly affects organizational artefacts such as business services, processes, and resources. Although enterprise architecture (EA) aligns business and IT aspects of organizational systems, previous applications of EA have not comprehensively addressed a methodological framework for planning. In the context of business networks, this study seeks to explore the application of EA for business network planning where it builds upon relevant and well-established prescriptive and descriptive aspects of EA. Prescriptive aspects include integrated models of services, business processes, and resources among other organizational artefacts, at both business and IT levels. Descriptive aspects include ontological classifications of business functionality, which allow EA models to be aligned semantically to organizational artefacts and, ultimately higher-level business strategy. A prominent approach for capturing descriptive aspects of EA is business capability modelling. In order to explore and develop the illustrative extensions of EA through capability modelling, a list of requirements (capability dimensions) for business network planning will be identified and validated through a revelatory case study encompassing different business network manifestations, or situations. These include virtual organization, liquid workforce, business network orchestration, and headquarters-subsidiary. The use of artefacts, conventionally, modelled through EA will be considered in these network situations. Two general considerations for EA extensions are explored for the identified requirements at the level of the network: extension of artefacts through the network and alignment of network level artefacts with individual organization artefacts. The list of requirements provides the basis for a constructivist extension of EA in the following ways. Firstly, for descriptive aspects, it offers constructivist insights to guide extensions for particular EA techniques and concepts. Secondly, for prescriptive aspects it defines a set of capability dimensions, which improve the analysis and assessment of organization capabilities for business network situations.

A simulation modeling approach to understanding information technology value cocreation

The business value of information technology (IT) is increasingly being cocreated by multiple parties, opening opportunities for new research initiatives. Previous studies on IT value cocreation mainly focus on analyzing sources of cocreated IT value, yet inadequately accommodating the influence of competition relationships in IT value cocreation activities. To fill the gap, this in-progress paper suggests an agent-based modeling (also simulation) approach to investigating potential influences of the dynamic interplay between cooperation and competition relationships in IT value cocreation settings. In particular, the research proposes a high-level conceptual framework to position general IT value cocreation processes. A relational network view is offered, aiming at decomposing and systemizing several typical cooperation and competition scenarios in practical IT value cocreation settings. The application of a simulation approach to analytical insights and to theory building is illustrated.

Asia Pacific Business Process Management

This book constitutes the proceedings of the Second Asia Pacific Conference on Business Process Management held in Brisbane, QLD, Australia, in July 2014. In all, 33 contributions from 12 countries were submitted. After each submission was reviewed by at least three Program Committee members, nine full papers were accepted for publication in this volume. These nine papers cover various topics that can be categorized under four main research focuses in BPM: process mining, process modeling and repositories, process model comparison, and process analysis.

Productive inefficiency analysis and toxic chemical substances in US and Japanese manufacturing sectors

Corporate social responsibility is imperative for manufacturing companies to achieve sustainable development. Under a strong environmental information disclosure system, polluting companies are disadvantaged in terms of market competitiveness, because they lack an environmentally friendly image. The objective of this study is to analyze productive inefficiency change in relation to toxic chemical substance emissions for the United States and Japan and their corresponding policies. We apply the weighted Russell directional distance model to measure companies productive inefficiency, which represents their production technology. The data encompass 330 US manufacturing firms observed from 1999 to 2007, and 466 Japanese manufacturing firms observed from 2001 to 2008. The article focuses on nine high-pollution industries (rubber and plastics; chemicals and allied products; paper and pulp; steel and non-ferrous metal; fabricated metal; industrial machinery; electrical products; transportation equipment; precision instruments) categorized into two industry groups: basic materials industries and processing and assembly industries. The results show that productive inefficiency decreased in all industrial sectors in the United States and Japan from 2001 to 2007. In particular, that of the electrical products industry decreased rapidly after 2002 for both countries, possibly because of the enforcement of strict environmental regulations for electrical products exported to European markets.

Digital Modeling, Integrated Project Delivery and Industry Transformation: An Australian Case Study

This research is focused on realizing productivity benefits for the delivery of transport infrastructure in the Australian construction industry through the use of building information modeling (BIM), virtual design and construction (VDC) and integrated project delivery (IPD). Specific objectives include: (I) building an understanding of the institutional environment, business systems and support mechanisms (e.g., training and skilling) which impact on the uptake of BIM/VDC; (II) gathering data to undertake a cross-country analysis of these environments; and (III) providing strategic and practical outcomes to guide the uptake of such processes in Australia. Activities which will inform this research include a review of academic literature and industry documentation, semi-formal interviews in Australia and Sweden, and a cross-country comparative analysis to determine factors affecting uptake and associated productivity improvements. These activities will seek to highlight the gaps between current-practice and best-practice which are impacting on widespread adoption of BIM/VDC and IPD. Early findings will be discussed with intended outcomes of this research being used to: inform a national public procurement strategy; provide guidelines for new contractual frameworks; and contribute to closing skill gaps. Keywords: building information modeling (BIM); virtual design and construction (VDC); integrated project delivery (IPD); transport infrastructure; Australia; procurement