Further notes on the application of zero-inflated models in highway safety

The intent of this note is to succinctly articulate additional points that were not provided in the original paper (Lord et al., 2005) and to help clarify a collective reluctance to adopt zero-inflated (ZI) models for modeling highway safety data. A dialogue on this important issue, just one of many important safety modeling issues, is healthy discourse on the path towards improved safety modeling. This note first provides a summary of prior findings and conclusions of the original paper. It then presents two critical and relevant issues: the maximizing statistical fit fallacy and logic problems with the ZI model in highway safety modeling. Finally, we provide brief conclusions.

Component reliability estimations without field data

Maintenance activities in a large-scale engineering system are usually scheduled according to the lifetimes of various components in order to ensure the overall reliability of the system. Lifetimes of components can be deduced by the corresponding probability distributions with parameters estimated from past failure data. While failure data of the components is not always readily available, the engineers have to be content with the primitive information from the manufacturers only, such as the mean and standard deviation of lifetime, to plan for the maintenance activities. In this paper, the moment-based piecewise polynomial model (MPPM) are proposed to estimate the parameters of the reliability probability distribution of the products when only the mean and standard deviation of the product lifetime are known. This method employs a group of polynomial functions to estimate the two parameters of the Weibull Distribution according to the mathematical relationship between the shape parameter of two-parameters Weibull Distribution and the ratio of mean and standard deviation. Tests are carried out to evaluate the validity and accuracy of the proposed methods with discussions on its suitability of applications. The proposed method is particularly useful for reliability-critical systems, such as railway and power systems, in which the maintenance activities are scheduled according to the expected lifetimes of the system components.

Mild systemic hypoxia and photopic visual field sensitivity

Purpose: Flickering stimuli increase the metabolic demand of the retina,making it a sensitive perimetric stimulus to the early onset of retinal disease. We determine whether flickering stimuli are a sensitive indicator of vision deficits resulting from to acute, mild systemic hypoxia when compared to standard static perimetry. Methods: Static and flicker visual perimetry were performed in 14 healthy young participants while breathing 12% oxygen (hypoxia) under photopic illumination. The hypoxia visual field data were compared with the field data measured during normoxia. Absolute sensitivities (in dB) were analysed in seven concentric rings at 1°, 3°, 6°, 10°, 15°, 22° and 30° eccentricities as well as mean defect (MD) and pattern defect (PD) were calculated. Preliminary data are reported for mesopic light levels. Results: Under photopic illumination, flicker and static visual field sensitivities at all eccentricities were not significantly different between hypoxia and normoxia conditions. The mean defect and pattern defect were not significantly different for either test between the two oxygenation conditions. Conclusion: Although flicker stimulation increases cellular metabolism, flicker photopic visual field impairment is not detected during mild hypoxia. These findings contrast with electrophysiological flicker tests in young participants that show impairment at photopic illumination during the same levels of mild hypoxia. Potential mechanisms contributing to the difference between the visual fields and electrophysiological flicker tests including variability in perimetric data, neuronal adaptation and vascular autoregulation, are considered. The data have implications for the use of visual perimetry in the detection of ischaemic/hypoxic retinal disorders under photopic and mesopic light levels.

Post-occupancy analysis of a Zero Energy Hojme (ZEH)

Zero energy buildings (ZEB) and zero energy homes (ZEH) are a current hot topic globally for policy makers (what are the benefits and costs), designers (how do we design them), the construction industry (can we build them), marketing (will consumers buy them) and researchers (do they work and what are the implications). This paper presents initial findings from actual measured data from a 9 star (as built), off-ground detached family home constructed in south-east Queensland in 2008. The integrated systems approach to the design of the house is analysed in each of its three main goals: maximising the thermal performance of the building envelope, minimising energy demand whilst maintaining energy service levels, and implementing a multi-pronged low carbon approach to energy supply. The performance outcomes of each of these stages are evaluated against definitions of Net Zero Carbon / Net Zero Emissions (Site and Source) and Net Zero Energy (onsite generation v primary energy imports). The paper will conclude with a summary of the multiple benefits of combining very high efficiency building envelopes with diverse energy management strategies: a robustness, resilience, affordability and autonomy not generally seen in housing.

Corona ions from overhead transmission voltage powerlines : effect on DC e-field and ambient particle concentration levels

Along with their essential role in electricity transmission and distribution, some powerlines also generate large concentrations of corona ions. This study aimed at comprehensive investigation of corona ions, vertical dc e-field, ambient aerosol particle charge and particle number concentration levels in the proximity of some high/sub-transmission voltage powerlines. The influence of meteorology on the instantaneous value of these parameters, and the possible existence of links or associations between the parameters measured were also statistically investigated. The presence of positive and negative polarities of corona ions was associated with variation in the mean vertical dc e-field, ambient ion and particle charge concentration level. Though these variations increased with wind speed, their values also decreased with distance from the powerlines. Predominately positive polarities of ions were recorded up to a distance of 150 m (with the maximum values recorded 50 m downwind of the powerlines). At 200 m from the source, negative ions predominated. Particle number concentration levels however remained relatively constant (103 particle cm-3) irrespective of the sampling site and distance from the powerlines. Meteorological factors of temperature, humidity and wind direction showed no influence on the electrical parameters measured. The study also discovered that e-field measurements were not necessarily a true representation of the ground-level ambient ion/particle charge concentrations.

Correcting mean-field approximations for birth-death-movement processes

On the microscale, migration, proliferation and death are crucial in the development, homeostasis and repair of an organism; on the macroscale, such effects are important in the sustainability of a population in its environment. Dependent on the relative rates of migration, proliferation and death, spatial heterogeneity may arise within an initially uniform field; this leads to the formation of spatial correlations and can have a negative impact upon population growth. Usually, such effects are neglected in modeling studies and simple phenomenological descriptions, such as the logistic model, are used to model population growth. In this work we outline some methods for analyzing exclusion processes which include agent proliferation, death and motility in two and three spatial dimensions with spatially homogeneous initial conditions. The mean-field description for these types of processes is of logistic form; we show that, under certain parameter conditions, such systems may display large deviations from the mean field, and suggest computationally tractable methods to correct the logistic-type description.

Regional field measurement of soil moisture content with neutron probe

The neutron logging method has been widely used for field measurement of soil moisture content. This non-destructive method permitted the measurement of in-situ soil moisture content at various depths without the need for burying any sensor. Twenty-three sites located around regional Melbourne have been selected for long term monitoring of soil moisture content using neutron probe. Soil samples collected during the installation are used for site characterisation and neutron probe calibration purposes. A linear relationship is obtained between the corrected neutron probe reading and moisture content for both the individual and combined data from seven sites. It is observed that the liner relationship, developed using combined data, can be used for all sites with an average accuracy of about 80%. Monitoring of the variation of soil moisture content with depth in six months for two sites is presented in this paper.

Dynamics of pattern writing and erasure in photorefractive lithium niobate for data storage applications

The present rate of technological advance continues to place significant demands on data storage devices. The sheer amount of digital data being generated each year along with consumer expectations, fuels these demands. At present, most digital data is stored magnetically, in the form of hard disk drives or on magnetic tape. The increase in areal density (AD) of magnetic hard disk drives over the past 50 years has been of the order of 100 million times, and current devices are storing data at ADs of the order of hundreds of gigabits per square inch. However, it has been known for some time that the progress in this form of data storage is approaching fundamental limits. The main limitation relates to the lower size limit that an individual bit can have for stable storage. Various techniques for overcoming these fundamental limits are currently the focus of considerable research effort. Most attempt to improve current data storage methods, or modify these slightly for higher density storage. Alternatively, three dimensional optical data storage is a promising field for the information storage needs of the future, offering very high density, high speed memory. There are two ways in which data may be recorded in a three dimensional optical medium; either bit-by-bit (similar in principle to an optical disc medium such as CD or DVD) or by using pages of bit data. Bit-by-bit techniques for three dimensional storage offer high density but are inherently slow due to the serial nature of data access. Page-based techniques, where a two-dimensional page of data bits is written in one write operation, can offer significantly higher data rates, due to their parallel nature. Holographic Data Storage (HDS) is one such page-oriented optical memory technique. This field of research has been active for several decades, but with few commercial products presently available. Another page-oriented optical memory technique involves recording pages of data as phase masks in a photorefractive medium. A photorefractive material is one by which the refractive index can be modified by light of the appropriate wavelength and intensity, and this property can be used to store information in these materials. In phase mask storage, two dimensional pages of data are recorded into a photorefractive crystal, as refractive index changes in the medium. A low-intensity readout beam propagating through the medium will have its intensity profile modified by these refractive index changes and a CCD camera can be used to monitor the readout beam, and thus read the stored data. The main aim of this research was to investigate data storage using phase masks in the photorefractive crystal, lithium niobate (LiNbO3). Firstly the experimental methods for storing the two dimensional pages of data (a set of vertical stripes of varying lengths) in the medium are presented. The laser beam used for writing, whose intensity profile is modified by an amplitudemask which contains a pattern of the information to be stored, illuminates the lithium niobate crystal and the photorefractive effect causes the patterns to be stored as refractive index changes in the medium. These patterns are read out non-destructively using a low intensity probe beam and a CCD camera. A common complication of information storage in photorefractive crystals is the issue of destructive readout. This is a problem particularly for holographic data storage, where the readout beam should be at the same wavelength as the beam used for writing. Since the charge carriers in the medium are still sensitive to the read light field, the readout beam erases the stored information. A method to avoid this is by using thermal fixing. Here the photorefractive medium is heated to temperatures above 150�C; this process forms an ionic grating in the medium. This ionic grating is insensitive to the readout beam and therefore the information is not erased during readout. A non-contact method for determining temperature change in a lithium niobate crystal is presented in this thesis. The temperature-dependent birefringent properties of the medium cause intensity oscillations to be observed for a beam propagating through the medium during a change in temperature. It is shown that each oscillation corresponds to a particular temperature change, and by counting the number of oscillations observed, the temperature change of the medium can be deduced. The presented technique for measuring temperature change could easily be applied to a situation where thermal fixing of data in a photorefractive medium is required. Furthermore, by using an expanded beam and monitoring the intensity oscillations over a wide region, it is shown that the temperature in various locations of the crystal can be monitored simultaneously. This technique could be used to deduce temperature gradients in the medium. It is shown that the three dimensional nature of the recording medium causes interesting degradation effects to occur when the patterns are written for a longer-than-optimal time. This degradation results in the splitting of the vertical stripes in the data pattern, and for long writing exposure times this process can result in the complete deterioration of the information in the medium. It is shown in that simply by using incoherent illumination, the original pattern can be recovered from the degraded state. The reason for the recovery is that the refractive index changes causing the degradation are of a smaller magnitude since they are induced by the write field components scattered from the written structures. During incoherent erasure, the lower magnitude refractive index changes are neutralised first, allowing the original pattern to be recovered. The degradation process is shown to be reversed during the recovery process, and a simple relationship is found relating the time at which particular features appear during degradation and recovery. A further outcome of this work is that the minimum stripe width of 30 ìm is required for accurate storage and recovery of the information in the medium, any size smaller than this results in incomplete recovery. The degradation and recovery process could be applied to an application in image scrambling or cryptography for optical information storage. A two dimensional numerical model based on the finite-difference beam propagation method (FD-BPM) is presented and used to gain insight into the pattern storage process. The model shows that the degradation of the patterns is due to the complicated path taken by the write beam as it propagates through the crystal, and in particular the scattering of this beam from the induced refractive index structures in the medium. The model indicates that the highest quality pattern storage would be achieved with a thin 0.5 mm medium; however this type of medium would also remove the degradation property of the patterns and the subsequent recovery process. To overcome the simplistic treatment of the refractive index change in the FD-BPM model, a fully three dimensional photorefractive model developed by Devaux is presented. This model shows significant insight into the pattern storage, particularly for the degradation and recovery process, and confirms the theory that the recovery of the degraded patterns is possible since the refractive index changes responsible for the degradation are of a smaller magnitude. Finally, detailed analysis of the pattern formation and degradation dynamics for periodic patterns of various periodicities is presented. It is shown that stripe widths in the write beam of greater than 150 ìm result in the formation of different types of refractive index changes, compared with the stripes of smaller widths. As a result, it is shown that the pattern storage method discussed in this thesis has an upper feature size limit of 150 ìm, for accurate and reliable pattern storage.

Visual field size criteria for mobility rehabilitation referral

Purpose. To investigate evidence-based visual field size criteria for referral of low-vision (LV) patients for mobility rehabilitation. Methods. One hundred and nine participants with LV and 41 age-matched participants with normal sight (NS) were recruited. The LV group was heterogeneous with diverse causes of visual impairment. We measured binocular kinetic visual fields with the Humphrey Field Analyzer and mobility performance on an obstacle-rich, indoor course. Mobility was assessed as percent preferred walking speed (PPWS) and number of obstacle-contact errors. The weighted kappa coefficient of association (κr) was used to discriminate LV participants with both unsafe and inefficient mobility from those with adequate mobility on the basis of their visual field size for the full sample and for subgroups according to type of visual field loss and whether or not the participants had previously received orientation and mobility training. Results. LV participants with both PPWS <38% and errors >6 on our course were classified as having inadequate (inefficient and unsafe) mobility compared with NS participants. Mobility appeared to be first compromised when the visual field was less than about 1.2 steradians (sr; solid angle of a circular visual field of about 70° diameter). Visual fields <0.23 and 0.63 sr (31 to 52° diameter) discriminated patients with at-risk mobility for the full sample and across the two subgroups. A visual field of 0.05 sr (15° diameter) discriminated those with critical mobility. Conclusions. Our study suggests that: practitioners should be alert to potential mobility difficulties when the visual field is less than about 1.2 sr (70° diameter); assessment for mobility rehabilitation may be warranted when the visual field is constricted to about 0.23 to 0.63 sr (31 to 52° diameter) depending on the nature of their visual field loss and previous history (at risk); and mobility rehabilitation should be conducted before the visual field is constricted to 0.05 sr (15° diameter; critical).

Inter-and Intra-Site Genetic Diversity of Natural Field Populations of Rice Tungro Bacilliform Virus in the Philippines

The genetic structure of rice tungro bacilliform virus (RTBV) populations within and between growing sites was analyzed in a collection of natural field isolates from different rice varieties grown in eight tungro-endemic sites of the Philippines. Total DNA extracts from 345 isolates were digested with EcoRV restriction enzyme and hybridized with a full-length probe of RTBV, a procedure shown in preliminary experiments capable of revealing high levels of polymorphism in RTBV field isolates. In the total population, 17 distinct EcoRV-based genome profiles (genotypes) were identified and used as indicators for virus diversity. Distinct sets of genotypes occurred in Isabela and North Cotabato provinces suggesting a geographic isolation of virus populations. However, among the sites in each province, there were few significant differences in the genotype compositions of virus populations. The number of genotypes detected at a site varied from two to nine with a few genotypes dominating. In general the isolates at a site persisted from season to season indicating a genetic stability for the local virus population. Over the sampling time, IRRI rice varieties, which have green leafhopper resistance genes, supported similar virus populations to those supported by other varieties, indicating that the variety of the host exerted no apparent selection pressures. Insect transmission experiments on selected RTBV field isolates showed that dramatic shifts in genotype and phenotype distributions can occur in response to host /environmental shifts.

An international survey of contact lens prescribing for presbyopia

Purpose: The aim was to determine world-wide patterns of fitting contact lenses for the correction of presbyopia. Methods: Up to 1,000 survey forms were sent to contact lens fitters in each of 38 countries between January and March every year over five consecutive years (2005 to 2009). Practitioners were asked to record data relating to the first 10 contact lens fittings or refittings performed after receiving the survey form. Results: Data were received relating to 16,680 presbyopic (age 45 years or older) and 84,202 pre-presbyopic (15 to 44 years) contact lens wearers. Females are over-represented in presbyopic versus pre-presbyopic groups, possibly reflecting a stronger desire for the cosmetic benefits of contact lenses among older women. The extent to which multifocal and monovision lenses are prescribed for presbyopes varies considerably among nations, ranging from 79 per cent of all soft lenses in Portugal to zero in Singapore. There appears to be significant under-prescribing of contact lenses for the correction of presbyopia, although for those who do receive such corrections, three times more multifocal lenses are fitted compared with monovision fittings. Presbyopic corrections are most frequently prescribed for full-time wear and monthly replacement. Conclusions: Despite apparent improvements in multifocal design and an increase in available multifocal options in recent years, practitioners are still under-prescribing with respect to the provision of appropriate contact lenses for the correction of presbyopia. Training of contact lens practitioners in presbyopic contact lens fitting should be accelerated and clinical and laboratory research in this field should be intensified to enhance the prospects of meeting the needs of presbyopic contact lens wearers more fully.

The evaluation of qualitative methods selection in the field of design and emotion

The aim of this paper is to aid researchers in selecting appropriate qualitative methods in order to develop and improve future studies in the field of emotional design. These include observations, think-aloud protocols, questionnaires, diaries and interviews. Based on the authors’ experiences, it is proposed that the methods under review can be successfully used for collecting data on emotional responses to evaluate user product relationships. This paper reviews the methods; discusses the suitability, advantages and challenges in relation to design and emotion studies. Furthermore, the paper outlines the potential impact of technology on the application of these methods, discusses the implications of these methods for emotion research and concludes with recommendations for future work in this area.

Terrain following using wide field optic flow

Wall and terrain following is a challenging problem for small, fast, and fragile robot vehicles. This paper presents a robust algorithm based on wide field integration of optic flow. Solutions for two dimensional and three dimensional wall following is provided for vehicles with non-holonomic velocity constraints that ensure that the focus of expansion of the flow field is known. The potential of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated in a simulation environment.

Last shall be first : a field study of biases in sequential performance evaluation on the Idol series

When performances are evaluated they are very often presented in a sequential order. Previous research suggests that the sequential presentation of alternatives may induce systematic biases in the way performances are evaluated. Such a phenomenon has been scarcely studied in economics. Using a large dataset of performance evaluation in the Idol series (N=1522), this paper presents new evidence about the systematic biases in sequential evaluation of performances and the psychological phenomena at the origin of these biases.