Bayesian hierarchical models in statistical quality control methods to improve healthcare in hospitals

Quality oriented management systems and methods have become the dominant business and governance paradigm. From this perspective, satisfying customers’ expectations by supplying reliable, good quality products and services is the key factor for an organization and even government. During recent decades, Statistical Quality Control (SQC) methods have been developed as the technical core of quality management and continuous improvement philosophy and now are being applied widely to improve the quality of products and services in industrial and business sectors. Recently SQC tools, in particular quality control charts, have been used in healthcare surveillance. In some cases, these tools have been modified and developed to better suit the health sector characteristics and needs. It seems that some of the work in the healthcare area has evolved independently of the development of industrial statistical process control methods. Therefore analysing and comparing paradigms and the characteristics of quality control charts and techniques across the different sectors presents some opportunities for transferring knowledge and future development in each sectors. Meanwhile considering capabilities of Bayesian approach particularly Bayesian hierarchical models and computational techniques in which all uncertainty are expressed as a structure of probability, facilitates decision making and cost-effectiveness analyses. Therefore, this research investigates the use of quality improvement cycle in a health vii setting using clinical data from a hospital. The need of clinical data for monitoring purposes is investigated in two aspects. A framework and appropriate tools from the industrial context are proposed and applied to evaluate and improve data quality in available datasets and data flow; then a data capturing algorithm using Bayesian decision making methods is developed to determine economical sample size for statistical analyses within the quality improvement cycle. Following ensuring clinical data quality, some characteristics of control charts in the health context including the necessity of monitoring attribute data and correlated quality characteristics are considered. To this end, multivariate control charts from an industrial context are adapted to monitor radiation delivered to patients undergoing diagnostic coronary angiogram and various risk-adjusted control charts are constructed and investigated in monitoring binary outcomes of clinical interventions as well as postintervention survival time. Meanwhile, adoption of a Bayesian approach is proposed as a new framework in estimation of change point following control chart’s signal. This estimate aims to facilitate root causes efforts in quality improvement cycle since it cuts the search for the potential causes of detected changes to a tighter time-frame prior to the signal. This approach enables us to obtain highly informative estimates for change point parameters since probability distribution based results are obtained. Using Bayesian hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo computational methods, Bayesian estimators of the time and the magnitude of various change scenarios including step change, linear trend and multiple change in a Poisson process are developed and investigated. The benefits of change point investigation is revisited and promoted in monitoring hospital outcomes where the developed Bayesian estimator reports the true time of the shifts, compared to priori known causes, detected by control charts in monitoring rate of excess usage of blood products and major adverse events during and after cardiac surgery in a local hospital. The development of the Bayesian change point estimators are then followed in a healthcare surveillances for processes in which pre-intervention characteristics of patients are viii affecting the outcomes. In this setting, at first, the Bayesian estimator is extended to capture the patient mix, covariates, through risk models underlying risk-adjusted control charts. Variations of the estimator are developed to estimate the true time of step changes and linear trends in odds ratio of intensive care unit outcomes in a local hospital. Secondly, the Bayesian estimator is extended to identify the time of a shift in mean survival time after a clinical intervention which is being monitored by riskadjusted survival time control charts. In this context, the survival time after a clinical intervention is also affected by patient mix and the survival function is constructed using survival prediction model. The simulation study undertaken in each research component and obtained results highly recommend the developed Bayesian estimators as a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances as well as industrial and business contexts. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The empirical results and simulations indicate that the Bayesian estimators are a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The advantages of the Bayesian approach seen in general context of quality control may also be extended in the industrial and business domains where quality monitoring was initially developed.

Gender differences in recreational and transport cycling : a cross-sectional mixed-methods comparison of cycling patterns, motivators, and constraints

Background: Gender differences in cycling are well-documented. However, most analyses of gender differences make broad comparisons, with few studies modeling male and female cycling patterns separately for recreational and transport cycling. This modeling is important, in order to improve our efforts to promote cycling to women and men in countries like Australia with low rates of transport cycling. The main aim of this study was to examine gender differences in cycling patterns and in motivators and constraints to cycling, separately for recreational and transport cycling. Methods: Adult members of a Queensland, Australia, community bicycling organization completed an online survey about their cycling patterns; cycling purposes; and personal, social and perceived environmental motivators and constraints (47% response rate). Closed and open-end questions were completed. Using the quantitative data, multivariable linear, logistic and ordinal regression models were used to examine associations between gender and cycling patterns, motivators and constraints. The qualitative data were thematically analysed to expand upon the quantitative findings. Results: In this sample of 1862 bicyclists, men were more likely than women to cycle for recreation and for transport, and they cycled for longer. Most transport cycling was for commuting, with men more likely than women to commute by bicycle. Men were more likely to cycle on-road, and women off-road. However, most men and women did not prefer to cycle on-road without designed bicycle lanes, and qualitative data indicated a strong preference by men and women for bicycle-only off-road paths. Both genders reported personal factors (health and enjoyment related) as motivators for cycling, although women were more likely to agree that other personal, social and environmental factors were also motivating. The main constraints for both genders and both cycling purposes were perceived environmental factors related to traffic conditions, motorist aggression and safety. Women, however, reported more constraints, and were more likely to report as constraints other environmental factors and personal factors. Conclusion: Differences found in men’s and women’s cycling patterns, motivators and constraints should be considered in efforts to promote cycling, particularly in efforts to increase cycling for transport.

The use of virtual prototyping to rehearse the sequence of construction work involving mobile cranes

Purpose – Rehearsing practical site operations is without doubt one of the most effective methods for minimising planning mistakes, because of the learning that takes place during the rehearsal activity. However, real rehearsal is not a practical solution for on-site construction activities, as it not only involves a considerable amount of cost but can also have adverse environmental implications. One approach to overcoming this is by the use of virtual rehearsals. The purpose of this paper is to investigate an approach to simulation of the motion of cranes in order to test the feasibility of associated construction sequencing and generate construction schedules for review and visualisation. Design/methodology/approach – The paper describes a system involving two technologies, virtual prototyping (VP) and four-dimensional (4D) simulation, to assist construction planners in testing the sequence of construction activities when mobile cranes are involved. The system consists of five modules, comprising input, database, equipment, process and output, and is capable of detecting potential collisions. A real-world trial is described in which the system was tested and validated. Findings – Feedback from the planners involved in the trial indicated that they found the system to be useful in its present form and that they would welcome its further development into a fully automated platform for validating construction sequencing decisions. Research limitations/implications – The tool has the potential to provide a cost-effective means of improving construction planning. However, it is limited at present to the specific case of crane movement under special consideration. Originality/value – This paper presents a large-scale, real life case of applying VP technology in planning construction processes and activities.

Observational research and verbal protocol methods

This paper describes observational research and verbal protocols methods, how these methods are applied and integrated within different contexts, and how they complement each other. The first case study focuses on nurses’ interaction during bandaging of patients’ lower legs. To maintain research rigor a triangulation approach was applied that links observations of current procedures, ‘talk-aloud’ protocol during interaction and retrospective protocol. Maps of interactions demonstrated that some nurses bandage more intuitively than others. Nurses who bandage intuitively assemble long sequences of bandaging actions while nurses who bandage less intuitively ‘focus-shift’ in between bandaging actions. Thus different levels of expertise have been identified. The second case study consists of two laboratory experiments. It focuses on analysing and comparing software and product design teams and how they approached a design problem. It is based on the observational and verbal data analysis. The coding scheme applied evolved during the analysis of the activity of each team and is identical for all teams. The structure of knowledge captured from the analysis of the design team maps of interaction is identified. The significance of this work is within its methodological approach. The maps of interaction are instrumental for understanding the activities and interactions of the people observed. By examining the maps of interaction, it is possible to draw conclusions about interactions, structure of knowledge captured and level of expertise. This research approach is transferable to other design domains. Designers will be able to transfer the interaction maps outcomes to systems and services they design.

Corneal changes following near work in myopic anisometropia

PURPOSE: To examine the symmetry of corneal changes following near work in the fellow eyes of non-amblyopic myopic anisometropes. METHODS: Thirty-four non-amblyopic myopic anisometropes (minimum 1 D spherical equivalent anisometropia) were recruited. Corneal topography was measured with the Medmont E300 Videokeratoscope before and after a controlled near task. Subjects were positioned to minimise head movements and read continuous text on a computer monitor for 10 minutes at an angle of 25 degrees downward gaze and an accommodation demand of 2.5 D. Measures of palpebral aperture morphology during primary and downward gaze were also obtained using digital photography and analysed with customised software. RESULTS: Significant changes in corneal topography were observed after ten minutes of reading. Localised superior regions of corneal topographical change (a hyperopic shift in corneal power) were typically exhibited in both eyes following the near task. The mean change in the corneal sphero-cylinder was +0.02/-0.11 x 113 and +0.02/-0.06 x 68 for the more and less myopic eyes respectively for a 6 mm corneal diameter. A significantly greater change in corneal astigmatism power vector J0 (a larger increase in against the rule astigmatism) was observed in the more myopic eyes (p < 0.01 for a 6 mm diameter). The more and less myopic eyes exhibited a high degree of interocular symmetry for measures of palpebral aperture morphology during both primary and downward gaze. Changes in corneal power vectors following reading were associated with eyelid position during downward gaze. CONCLUSIONS: Changes in corneal topography observed following a controlled reading task were highly symmetrical between the fellow eyes of myopic anisometropes due to the interocular symmetry of the palpebral aperture. However, the more myopic eye did exhibit a small but significantly greater magnitude of change in corneal astigmatism compared to the less myopic eye following reading. These findings may have implications for understanding the mechanism of development of non-amblyopic myopic anisometropia.

The Donald Mackay Churchill Fellowship to study methods of preventing and supporting victims of online fraud

Every day inboxes are being flooded with invitations to invest money in overseas schemes, notifications of overseas lottery wins and inheritances, as well as emails from banks and other institutions asking for customers to confirm information about their identity and account details. While these requests may seem outrageous, many believe the request to be true and respond, through the sending of money or personal details. This can have devastating consequences, financially, emotionally and physically. While enforcement action is important, greater success is likely to come in the area of prevention, which avoids victim losses in the first place. Considerable victim support is also required by victims who have suffered significant losses, in trying to get their lives back on track. This project examined fraud prevention strategies and support services for victims of online fraud across the United Kingdom, United States of America and Canada. While much work has already been undertaken in Queensland, there is considerable room for improvement and a great deal can be learnt from these overseas jurisdictions. There are several examples of innovative and effective responses, particularly in the area of victim support, that are highlighted throughout this report. It is advocated that Australia can continue to improve its position regarding the prevention and support of online fraud victims, by applying the knowledge and expertise learnt overseas to a local context.

Quality of work life among primary health care nurses in the Jazan region, Saudi Arabia : a crosssectional study

Background: Quality of work life (QWL) is defined as the extent to which employee is satisfied with personal and working needs through participating in the workplace while achieving the organisation’s goals. QWL has been found to influence the commitment and productivity of employees in healthcare organisations, as well as in other industries. However, reliable information on the QWL of PHC nurses is limited. The purpose of this study was to assess the QWL among PHC nurses in the Jazan region, Saudi Arabia. Methods: A descriptive research design, namely, a cross-sectional survey was used in this study. Data were collected using Brooks’ survey of quality of nursing work life (QNWL) and demographic questions. A convenience sample was recruited from 143 PHC centres in Jazan, Saudi Arabia. The Jazan region is located in the southern part of Saudi Arabia. A response rate of 91% (N = 532/585) was achieved (effective RR = 87%, n = 508). Data analysis consisted of descriptive statistics, t-test and one way-analysis of variance. Total scores and sub-scores for QWL Items and item summary statistics were computed and reported, using SPSS version 17 for Windows. Results: Findings suggested that the respondents were dissatisfied with their work life. The major influencing factors were unsuitable working hours/shifts, lack of facilities for nurses, inability to balance work with family needs, inadequacy of family-leave time, poor staffing, management and supervision practices, lack of professional development opportunities, and inappropriate working environment in terms of the level of security, patient care supplies and equipment, and recreation facilities (Break-area). Other essential factors include the community’s view of nursing and inadequate salary. More positively, the majority of nurses were satisfied with their co-workers, satisfied to be nurses and had a sense of belonging in their workplaces. Significant differences were found according to gender, age, marital status, dependent children, dependent adults, nationality, ethnicity, nursing tenure, organisational tenure, positional tenure, and payment per month. No significant differences were found according to education level and location of PHC. Conclusions: These findings can be used by PHC managers and policy makers for developing and appropriately implementing successful plans to improve the QWL. This will help to enhance the home and work environments, improve individual and organisation performance and increase nurses’ commitment.

The relationship between quality of work life and turnover intention of primary health care nurses in Saudi Arabia

Background Quality of work life (QWL) has been found to influence the commitment of health professionals including nurses. However, reliable information on the QWL and turnover intention of primary health care (PHC) nurses is limited. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between QWL and turnover intention of PHC nurses in Saudi Arabia. Methods A cross-sectional survey was used in this study. Data were collected using Brooks’ survey of Quality of Nursing Work life (QNWL), the Anticipated Turnover Scale and demographic data questions. A total of 508 PHC nurses in the Jazan region, Saudi Arabia completed the questionnaire (RR = 87%). Descriptive statistics, t-test, ANOVA, General Linear Model (GLM) univariate analysis, standard multiple regression (SMR), and hierarchical multiple regression (HMR) were applied for analysis using SPSS v17 for Windows. Results Findings suggested that the respondents were dissatisfied with their work life, with almost 40% indicating a turnover intention from their current PHC centres. Turnover intention was significantly related to QWL. Using SMR, 26% of the variance in turnover intention was explained by the QWL, p < 0.001, with R² = .263. Further analysis using HMR found that the total variance explained by the model as a whole (demographics and QWL) was 32.1%, p < 0.001. QWL explained an additional 19% of the variance in turnover intention, after controlling for demographic variables. Conclusions Creating and maintaining a healthy work life for PHC nurses is very important to improve their work satisfaction, reduce turnover, enhance productivity and improve nursing care outcomes.

Effect of Australia's walk to work day campaign on adults' active commuting and physical activity behavior

Purpose. To determine whether Australia's Walk to Work Day media campaign resulted in behavioural change among targeted groups. Methods. Pre- and postcampaign telephone surveys of a cohort of adults aged 18 to 65 years (n = 1100, 55% response rate) were randomly sampled from Australian major melropolitan areas. Tests for dependent samples were applied (McNemax chi(2) or paired t-test). Results. Among participants who did not usually actively commute to work was a significant decrease in car only use an increase in walking combined with public transport. Among those who were employed was a significant increase in total time walking (+16 min/wk; t [780] = 2.04, p < .05) and in other moderate physical activity (+120 min/wk; t [1087] = 4.76, p < .005), resulting in a significant decrease in the proportion who were inactive (chi(2) (1) = 6.1, p < .05). Conclusion. Although nonexperimental, the Walk to Work Day initiative elicited short-term changes in targeted behaviors among target groups. Reinforcement by integrating worksite health promotion strategies may be required for sustained effects.

Near work-induced contrast adaptation in emmetropic and myopic children

Purpose. Contrast adaptation may induce an error signal for emmetropization. This research aims to determine whether reading causes contrast adaptation in children and, if so, to determine whether myopes exhibit greater contrast adaptation than emmetropes. Methods. Baseline contrast sensitivity was determined in 34 emmetropic and 34 spectacle-corrected myopic children for 0.5, 1.2, 2.7, 4.4, and 6.2 cycles per degree (cpd) horizontal sine-wave gratings. Effects of near tasks on contrast sensitivity were determined during periods spent looking at a 6.2 cpd horizontal grating and during periods spent reading lines of English text, with 1.2 cpd row frequency and 6 cpd stroke frequency. Results. Both emmetropic and myopic groups (mean ± SD; age, 10.3 ± 1.4 years) showed reduced contrast sensitivity during both near tasks, with greatest overall adaptation at 6.2 cpd. Adaptation induced by viewing the grating (0.15 ± 0.17 log unit [40%]; range, 0.07-0.27 log unit) was significantly greater than adaptation induced by reading text (0.11 ± 0.18 log unit [29%], 0.08-0.16 log unit) (F(1,594) = 10.7; P = 0.001). Myopic children showed significantly greater adaptation across the tasks (0.15 ± 0.18 log unit [42%]) than emmetropic children (0.10 ± 0.16 log unit [26%]) (F(1,66) = 7.30; P = 0.009), with the greatest difference occurring at 4.4 cpd (mean, 0.11 log unit [30%]). Conclusions. Grating and reading tasks induced contrast adaptation; viewing horizontal gratings induced greater adaptation than reading, and myopes exhibited greater adaptation than emmetropes. Contrast adaptation effects may underlie findings of prolonged near work being associated with myopia. However, our research does not show whether this is consequential or causal.

Corneal changes following near work in myopic anisometropia

Purpose: To examine the symmetry of corneal changes following near work in the fellow eyes of non-amblyopic myopic anisometropes. Methods: Thirty-four non-amblyopic, myopic anisometropes (minimum 1 D spherical equivalent anisometropia) had corneal topography measured before and after a controlled near work task. Subjects were positioned in a headrest to minimise head movements and read continuous text on a computer monitor for 10 minutes at an angle of 25 degrees downward gaze and an accommodation demand of 2.5 D. Measures of the morphology of the palpebral aperture during primary and downward gaze were also obtained. Results: The more and less myopic eyes exhibited a high degree of interocular symmetry for measures of palpebral aperture morphology during both primary and downward gaze. Following the near work task, fellow eyes also displayed a symmetrical change in superior corneal topography (hyperopic defocus) which correlated with the position of the upper eyelid during downward gaze. Greater changes in the spherical corneal power vector (M) following reading were associated with narrower palpebral aperture during downward gaze (p = 0.07 for more myopic and p = 0.03 for less myopic eyes). A significantly greater change in J0 (an increase in against the rule astigmatism) was observed in the more myopic eyes (-0.04 ± 0.04 D) compared to the less myopic eyes (-0.02 ± 0.06 D) over a 6 mm corneal diameter (p = 0.01). Conclusions: Changes in corneal topography following near work are highly symmetrical between the fellow eyes of myopic anisometropes due to the interocular symmetry of the palpebral aperture. However, the more myopic eye exhibits changes in corneal astigmatism of greater magnitude compared to the less myopic eye.

Self-directed student work groups using blended learning

This paper provides a description of an innovative teaching approach designed to facilitate student work groups using a blended learning approach that incorporates both traditional face-to-face teaching methods and an online student work group facility. The teaching approach is designed to accommodate a large introductory human resource management subject positioned within an undergraduate business degree.

High strong order explicit Runge-Kutta methods for stochastic ordinary differential equations

The pioneering work of Runge and Kutta a hundred years ago has ultimately led to suites of sophisticated numerical methods suitable for solving complex systems of deterministic ordinary differential equations. However, in many modelling situations, the appropriate representation is a stochastic differential equation and here numerical methods are much less sophisticated. In this paper a very general class of stochastic Runge-Kutta methods is presented and much more efficient classes of explicit methods than previous extant methods are constructed. In particular, a method of strong order 2 with a deterministic component based on the classical Runge-Kutta method is constructed and some numerical results are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of this approach.

Order conditions of stochastic Runge-Kutta methods by B-series

In this paper, general order conditions and a global convergence proof are given for stochastic Runge Kutta methods applied to stochastic ordinary differential equations ( SODEs) of Stratonovich type. This work generalizes the ideas of B-series as applied to deterministic ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to the stochastic case and allows a completely general formalism for constructing high order stochastic methods, either explicit or implicit. Some numerical results will be given to illustrate this theory.

Adams-Type Methods for the Numerical Solution of Stochastic Ordinary Differential Equations

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) arise fi om physical systems where the parameters describing the system can only be estimated or are subject to noise. There has been much work done recently on developing numerical methods for solving SDEs. This paper will focus on stability issues and variable stepsize implementation techniques for numerically solving SDEs effectively. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.