Uncertainty avoidance: public sector clients and procurement selection

Purpose: Choosing the appropriate procurement system for construction projects is a complex and challenging task for clients particularly when professional advice has not been sought. To assist with the decision making process, a range of procurement selection tools and techniques have been developed by both academic and industry bodies. Public sector clients in Western Australia (WA) remain uncertain about the pairing of procurement method to bespoke construction project and how this decision will ultimately impact upon project success. This paper examines ‘how and why’ a public sector agency selected particular procurement methods. · Methodology/Approach: An analysis of two focus group workshops (with 18 senior project and policy managers involved with procurement selection) is reported upon · Findings: The traditional lump sum (TLS) method is still the preferred procurement path even though alternative forms such as design and construct, public-private-partnerships could optimize the project outcome. Paradoxically, workshop participants agreed that alternative procurement forms should be considered, but an embedded culture of uncertainty avoidance invariably meant that TLS methods were selected. Senior managers felt that only a limited number of contractors have the resources and experience to deliver projects using the nontraditional methods considered. · Research limitations/implications: The research identifies a need to develop a framework that public sector clients can use to select an appropriate procurement method. A procurement framework should be able to guide the decision-maker rather than provide a prescriptive solution. Learning from previous experiences with regard to procurement selection will further provide public sector clients with knowledge about how to best deliver their projects.

Multi-vehicles interaction graph model for cooperative collision warning system

Cooperative collision warning system for road vehicles, enabled by recent advances in positioning systems and wireless communication technologies, can potentially reduce traffic accident significantly. To improve the system, we propose a graph model to represent interactions between multiple road vehicles in a specific region and at a specific time. Given a list of vehicles in vicinity, we can generate the interaction graph using several rules that consider vehicle's properties such as position, speed, heading, etc. Safety applications can use the model to improve emergency warning accuracy and optimize wireless channel usage. The model allows us to develop some congestion control strategies for an efficient multi-hop broadcast protocol.

Definition of airworthiness categories for civil Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS)

This paper introduces a novel strategy for the specification of airworthiness certification categories for civil unmanned aircraft systems (UAS). The risk-based approach acknowledges the fundamental differences between the risk paradigms of manned and unmanned aviation. The proposed airworthiness certification matrix provides a systematic and objective structure for regulating the airworthiness of a diverse range of UAS types and operations. An approach for specifying UAS type categories is then discussed. An example of the approach, which includes the novel application of data-clustering algorithms, is presented to illustrate the discussion.

Optimal mission path planning (MPP) for an air sampling unmanned aerial system

This paper presents advanced optimization techniques for Mission Path Planning (MPP) of a UAS fitted with a spore trap to detect and monitor spores and plant pathogens. The UAV MPP aims to optimise the mission path planning search and monitoring of spores and plant pathogens that may allow the agricultural sector to be more competitive and more reliable. The UAV will be fitted with an air sampling or spore trap to detect and monitor spores and plant pathogens in remote areas not accessible to current stationary monitor methods. The optimal paths are computed using a Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs). Two types of multi-objective optimisers are compared; the MOEA Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithms II (NSGA-II) and Hybrid Game are implemented to produce a set of optimal collision-free trajectories in three-dimensional environment. The trajectories on a three-dimension terrain, which are generated off-line, are collision-free and are represented by using Bézier spline curves from start position to target and then target to start position or different position with altitude constraints. The efficiency of the two optimization methods is compared in terms of computational cost and design quality. Numerical results show the benefits of coupling a Hybrid-Game strategy to a MOEA for MPP tasks. The reduction of numerical cost is an important point as the faster the algorithm converges the better the algorithms is for an off-line design and for future on-line decisions of the UAV.

Uncertainty based MDO of UAS using HAPMOEA

CFD has been successfully used in the optimisation of aerodynamic surfaces using a given set of parameters such as Mach numbers and angle of attack. While carrying out a multidisciplinary design optimisation one deals with situations where the parameters have some uncertain attached. Any optimisation carried out for fixed values of input parameters gives a design which may be totally unacceptable under off-design conditions. The challenge is to develop a robust design procedure which takes into account the fluctuations in the input parameters. In this work, we attempt this using a modified Taguchi approach. This is incorporated into an evolutionary algorithm with many features developed in house. The method is tested for an UCAV design which simultaneously handles aerodynamics, electromagnetics and maneuverability. Results demonstrate that the method has considerable potential.

A simultaneous equations model of crash frequency by collision type for rural intersections

Safety at roadway intersections is of significant interest to transportation professionals due to the large number of intersections in transportation networks, the complexity of traffic movements at these locations that leads to large numbers of conflicts, and the wide variety of geometric and operational features that define them. A variety of collision types including head-on, sideswipe, rear-end, and angle crashes occur at intersections. While intersection crash totals may not reveal a site deficiency, over exposure of a specific crash type may reveal otherwise undetected deficiencies. Thus, there is a need to be able to model the expected frequency of crashes by collision type at intersections to enable the detection of problems and the implementation of effective design strategies and countermeasures. Statistically, it is important to consider modeling collision type frequencies simultaneously to account for the possibility of common unobserved factors affecting crash frequencies across crash types. In this paper, a simultaneous equations model of crash frequencies by collision type is developed and presented using crash data for rural intersections in Georgia. The model estimation results support the notion of the presence of significant common unobserved factors across crash types, although the impact of these factors on parameter estimates is found to be rather modest.

Avoidance of advertising on social networking sites : the teenage perspective

Technology has provided consumers with the means to control and edit the information that they receive and share effectively, especially in the online environment. Although previous studies have investigated advertising avoidance in traditional media and on the Internet, there has been little investigation of advertising on social networking sites. This exploratory study examines the antecedents of advertising avoidance on online social networking sites, leading to the development of a model. The model suggests that advertising in the online social networking environment is more likely to be avoided if the user has expectations of a negative experience, the advertising is not relevant to the user, the user is skeptical toward the advertising message, or the consumer is skeptical toward the advertising medium.

The Australian UAS Experience

Invited presentation made to the New Zealand Robotic Systems Network Conference. The presentation provides an overview of the Unmanned Aircraft Systems industry, civil applications for the technology, some current research activity and the UAS industry initiatives in the Australia.

UAS Classification: Key to effective airworthiness and operational regulations

This presentation discusses some of the general issues relating to the classification of UAS for the purposes of defining and promulgating safety regulations. One possible approach for the definition of a classification scheme for UAS Type Certification Categories reviewed.

Proactive detection of high collision concentration locations on highways

In previous research (Chung et al., 2009), the potential of the continuous risk profile (CRP) to proactively detect the systematic deterioration of freeway safety levels was presented. In this paper, this potential is investigated further, and an algorithm is proposed for proactively detecting sites where the collision rate is not sufficiently high to be classified as a high collision concentration location but where a systematic deterioration of safety level is observed. The approach proposed compares the weighted CRP across different years and uses the cumulative sum (CUSUM) algorithm to detect the sites where changes in collision rate are observed. The CRPs of the detected sites are then compared for reproducibility. When high reproducibility is observed, a growth factor is used for sequential hypothesis testing to determine if the collision profiles are increasing over time. Findings from applying the proposed method using empirical data are documented in the paper together with a detailed description of the method.

Mileage, car ownership, experience of punishment avoidance and the risky driving of young drivers

Objective: Young drivers are at greatest risk of injury or death from a car crash in the first six months of independent driving. In Queensland, the graduated driver licensing (GDL) program was extensively modified in July 2007 in order to reduce this risk. Increased mileage and car ownership have been found to play a role in risky driving, offences and crashes; however GDL programs typically do not consider these variables. In addition, young novice drivers’ experiences of punishment avoidance have not previously been examined. The paper explores the mileage (duration and distance), car ownership and punishment avoidance behaviour of young newly-licensed intermediate (Provisional) drivers and their relationship with risky driving, crashes and offences. Methods: Drivers (n = 1032) aged 17-19 years recruited from across Queensland for longitudinal research completed Survey 1 exploring pre-licence and Learner experiences and sociodemographic characteristics. Survey 2 explored the same variables with a subset of these drivers (n = 341) after they had completed their first six months of independent driving. Results: Most young drivers in Survey 2 reported owning a vehicle and paying attention to Police presence. Drivers who had their own car reported significantly greater mileage and more risky driving. Novices who drove more kilometres, spent more hours each week driving, or avoided actual and anticipated Police presence were more likely to report risky driving. These drivers were also more likely to report being detected by Police for a driving-related offence. The media, parents, friends and other drivers play a pivotal role in informing novices of on-road Police enforcement operations. Conclusions: GDL programs should incorporate education for the parent and novice driver regarding the increased risks associated with greater driving particularly where the novices own a vehicle. Parents should be encouraged to delay exclusive access to a vehicle for the novice driver. Parents should also consider whether their young novice will deliberately avoid Police if they tell them their location. This may reinforce not only the risky behaviour but also the young novice’s beliefs that their parents condone this behaviour.

The role of information avoidance in everyday-life information behaviors

This paper presents the results from a study of information behaviors in the context of people's everyday lives as part of a larger study of information behaviors (IB). 34 participants from across 6 countries maintained a daily information journal or diary – mainly through a secure web log – for two weeks, to an aggregate of 468 participant days over five months. The text-rich diary data was analyzed using Grounded Theory analysis. The findings indicate that information avoidance is a common phenomenon in everyday life and consisted of both passive avoidance and active avoidance. This has implications for several aspects of peoples' lives including health, finance, and personal relationships.

Robust multidisciplinary UAS design optimisation

There are many applications in aeronautical/aerospace engineering where some values of the design parameters states cannot be provided or determined accurately. These values can be related to the geometry(wingspan, length, angles) and or to operational flight conditions that vary due to the presence of uncertainty parameters (Mach, angle of attack, air density and temperature, etc.). These uncertainty design parameters cannot be ignored in engineering design and must be taken into the optimisation task to produce more realistic and reliable solutions. In this paper, a robust/uncertainty design method with statistical constraints is introduced to produce a set of reliable solutions which have high performance and low sensitivity. Robust design concept coupled with Multi Objective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs) is defined by applying two statistical sampling formulas; mean and variance/standard deviation associated with the optimisation fitness/objective functions. The methodology is based on a canonical evolution strategy and incorporates the concepts of hierarchical topology, parallel computing and asynchronous evaluation. It is implemented for two practical Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) design problems; the flrst case considers robust multi-objective (single disciplinary: aerodynamics) design optimisation and the second considers a robust multidisciplinary (aero structures) design optimisation. Numerical results show that the solutions obtained by the robust design method with statistical constraints have a more reliable performance and sensitivity in both aerodynamics and structures when compared to the baseline design.