Bayesian hierarchical analysis on crash prediction models

Traditional crash prediction models, such as generalized linear regression models, are incapable of taking into account the multilevel data structure, which extensively exists in crash data. Disregarding the possible within-group correlations can lead to the production of models giving unreliable and biased estimates of unknowns. This study innovatively proposes a -level hierarchy, viz. (Geographic region level – Traffic site level – Traffic crash level – Driver-vehicle unit level – Vehicle-occupant level) Time level, to establish a general form of multilevel data structure in traffic safety analysis. To properly model the potential cross-group heterogeneity due to the multilevel data structure, a framework of Bayesian hierarchical models that explicitly specify multilevel structure and correctly yield parameter estimates is introduced and recommended. The proposed method is illustrated in an individual-severity analysis of intersection crashes using the Singapore crash records. This study proved the importance of accounting for the within-group correlations and demonstrated the flexibilities and effectiveness of the Bayesian hierarchical method in modeling multilevel structure of traffic crash data.

Hotspot Identification: A Full Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling Approach

This study proposes a full Bayes (FB) hierarchical modeling approach in traffic crash hotspot identification. The FB approach is able to account for all uncertainties associated with crash risk and various risk factors by estimating a posterior distribution of the site safety on which various ranking criteria could be based. Moreover, by use of hierarchical model specification, FB approach is able to flexibly take into account various heterogeneities of crash occurrence due to spatiotemporal effects on traffic safety. Using Singapore intersection crash data(1997-2006), an empirical evaluate was conducted to compare the proposed FB approach to the state-of-the-art approaches. Results show that the Bayesian hierarchical models with accommodation for site specific effect and serial correlation have better goodness-of-fit than non hierarchical models. Furthermore, all model-based approaches perform significantly better in safety ranking than the naive approach using raw crash count. The FB hierarchical models were found to significantly outperform the standard EB approach in correctly identifying hotspots.

Analysis of marine conflicts

The traffic conflict technique (TCT) is a powerful technique applied in road traffic safety assessment as a surrogate of the traditional accident data analysis. It has subdued the conceptual and implemental weaknesses of the accident statistics. Although this technique has been applied effectively in road traffic, it has not been practised well in marine traffic even though this traffic system has some distinct advantages in terms of having a monitoring system. This monitoring system can provide navigational information as well as other geometric information of the ships for a larger study area over a longer time period. However, for implementing the TCT in the marine traffic system, it should be examined critically to suit the complex nature of the traffic system. This paper examines the suitability of the TCT to be applied to marine traffic and proposes a framework for a follow up comprehensive conflict study.

Comparison and modification of car following models toward a more accurate microscopic simulation parameters reproduction

Traffic safety studies demand more than what current micro-simulation models can provide as they presume that all drivers of motor vehicles exhibit safe behaviours. Several car-following models are used in various micro-simulation models. This research compares the mainstream car following models’ capabilities of emulating precise driver behaviour parameters such as headways and Time to Collisions. The comparison firstly illustrates which model is more robust in the metric reproduction. Secondly, the study conducted a series of sensitivity tests to further explore the behaviour of each model. Based on the outcome of these two steps exploration of the models, a modified structure and parameters adjustment for each car-following model is proposed to simulate more realistic vehicle movements, particularly headways and Time to Collision, below a certain critical threshold. NGSIM vehicle trajectory data is used to evaluate the modified models performance to assess critical safety events within traffic flow. The simulation tests outcomes indicate that the proposed modified models produce better frequency of critical Time to Collision than the generic models, while the improvement on the headway is not significant. The outcome of this paper facilitates traffic safety assessment using microscopic simulation.

Using variable speed limits for motorway off-ramp queue protection

Motorway off-ramps are a significant source of traffic congestion and collisions. Heavy diverging traffic to off-ramps slows down the mainline traffic speed. When the off-ramp queue spillbacks onto the mainline, it leads to a major breakdown of the motorway capacity and a significant threat to the traffic safety. This paper proposes using Variable Speed Limits (VSL) for protection of the motorway off-ramp queue and thus to promote safety in congested diverging areas. To support timely activation of VSL in advance of queue spillover, a proactive control strategy is proposed based on a real-time off-ramp queue estimation and prediction. This process determines the estimated queue size in the near-term future, on which the decision to change speed limits is made. VSL can effectively slow down traffic as it is mandatory that drivers follow the changed speed limits. A collateral benefit of VSL is its potential effect on drivers making them more attentive to the surrounding traffic conditions, and prepared for a sudden braking of the leading car. This paper analyses and quantifies these impacts and potential benefits of VSL on traffic safety and efficiency using the microsimulation approach.

Risky driving behavior among university students and staff in the Sultanate of Oman

Background: There is a well developed literature on research investigating the relationship between various driving behaviours and road crash involvement. However, this research has predominantly been conducted in developed economies dominated by western types of cultural environments. To date no research has been published that has empirically investigated this relationship within the context of the emerging economies such as Oman. Objective: The present study aims to investigate driving behaviour as indexed in the Driving Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) among a group of Omani university students and staff. Methods: A convenience non-probability self- selection sampling approach was utilized with Omani university students and staff. Results: A total of 1003 Omani students (n= 632) and staff (n=371) participated in the survey. Factor analysis of the BDQ revealed four main factors that were errors, speeding violation, lapses and aggressive violation. In the multivariate logistic backward regression analysis, the following factors were identified as significant predictors of being involved in causing at least one crash: driving experience, history of offences and two DBQ components i.e. errors and aggressive violation. Conclusion: This study indicates that errors and aggressive violation of the traffic regulations as well as history of having traffic offences are major risk factors for road traffic crashes among the sample. While previous international research has demonstrated that speeding is a primary cause of crashing, in the current context, the results indicate that an array of factors is associated with crashes. Further research using more rigorous methodology is warranted to inform the development of road safety countermeasures in Oman that improves overall traffic safety culture.

"I drove after drinking alcohol" and other risky driving behaviours reported by young novice drivers

Background Volitional risky driving behaviours including drink- and drug-driving and speeding contribute to the overrepresentation of young novice drivers in road crash fatalities, and crash risk is greatest during the first year of independent driving in particular. Aims To compare: 1) the self-reported compliance of drivers with road rules relating to substance-impaired driving and other risky driving behaviours including speeding and driving tired, one year after progression from a Learner to a Provisional (intermediate) licence; and 2) the interrelationships between substance-impaired driving and other risky driving behaviours (crashes, offences, and Police avoidance). Methods 1268 drivers (373 males) aged 17-26 years were surveyed regarding their sociodemographics (age, gender) and self-reported driving behaviours including crashes, offences, Police-avoidance, and driving intentions. Results A relatively small proportion of participants reported driving after taking drugs (5.9% males, 1.3% females) and drinking alcohol (19.3% males, 11.6% females). In comparison, a considerable proportion of participants reported at least occasionally exceeding speed limits (85.7% novices) and driving when tired (82.7% novices). Substance-impaired driving was associated with avoiding Police, speeding, risky driving intentions, and self reported crashes and offences. Forty-four percent of illicit-drug drivers also reported alcohol-impaired driving. Discussion and conclusions The low self-reported prevalence of substance-impaired driving suggests official enforcement measures play a role in promoting compliance, in addition to social influences such as the broader community and the young novice drivers’ social networks including friends and family. Conversely, the prevalence of speeding appears to reflect the pervasive cultural acceptance of this behaviour. Given the interrelationships between the risky driving behaviours, a deeper understanding of influential factors is required to inform targeted and general countermeasure implementation and evaluation during this critical driving period.

Random Breath Testing in Australia: Is there an Optimum Level of Intensity?

Background: Random Breath Testing (RBT) is the main drink driving law enforcement tool used throughout Australia. International comparative research considers Australia to have the most successful RBT program compared to other countries in terms of crash reductions (Erke, Goldenbeld, & Vaa, 2009). This success is attributed to the programs high intensity (Erke et al., 2009). Our review of the extant literature suggests that there is no research evidence that indicates an optimal level of alcohol breath testing. That is, we suggest that no research exists to guide policy regarding whether or not there is a point at which alcohol related crashes reach a point of diminishing returns as a result of either saturated or targeted RBT testing. Aims: In this paper we first provide an examination of RBTs and alcohol related crashes across Australian jurisdictions. We then address the question of whether or not an optimal level of random breath testing exists by examining the relationship between the number of RBTs conducted and the occurrence of alcohol-related crashes over time, across all Australian states. Method: To examine the association between RBT rates and alcohol related crashes and to assess whether an optimal ratio of RBT tests per licenced drivers can be determined we draw on three administrative data sources form each jurisdiction. Where possible data collected spans January 1st 2000 to September 30th 2012. The RBT administrative dataset includes the number of Random Breath Tests (RBTs) conducted per month. The traffic crash administrative dataset contains aggregated monthly count of the number of traffic crashes where an individual’s recorded BAC reaches or exceeds 0.05g/ml of alcohol in blood. The licenced driver data were the monthly number of registered licenced drivers spanning January 2000 to December 2011. Results: The data highlights that the Australian story does not reflective of all States and territories. The stable RBT to licenced driver ratio in Queensland (of 1:1) suggests a stable rate of alcohol related crash data of 5.5 per 100,000 licenced drivers. Yet, in South Australia were a relative stable rate of RBT to licenced driver ratio of 1:2 is maintained the rate of alcohol related traffic crashes is substantially less at 3.7 per 100,000. We use joinpoint regression techniques and varying regression models to fit the data and compare the different patterns between jurisdictions. Discussion: The results of this study provide an updated review and evaluation of RBTs conducted in Australia and examines the association between RBTs and alcohol related traffic crashes. We also present an evidence base to guide policy decisions for RBT operations.

Are more city dwellers caught drink driving than country folk? An analysis by random breath testing apprehension rates

Background Random Breath Testing (RBT) remains a central enforcement strategy to deter and apprehend drink drivers in Queensland (Australia). Despite this, there is little published research regarding the exact drink driving apprehension rates across the state as measured through RBT activities. Aims The aim of the current study was to examine the prevalence of apprehending drink drivers in urban versus rural areas. Methods The Queensland Police Service provided data relating to the number of RBT conducted and apprehensions for the period 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2011. Results In the period, 35,082,386 random breath tests (both mobile and stationary) were conducted in Queensland which resulted in 248,173 individuals being apprehended for drink driving offences. Overall drink driving apprehension rates appear to have decreased across time. Close examination of the data revealed that the highest proportion of drink driving apprehensions (when compared with RBT testing rates) was in the Northern and Far Northern regions of Queensland (e.g., rural areas). In contrast, the lowest proportions were observed within the two Brisbane metropolitan regions (e.g., urban areas). However, differences in enforcement styles across the urban and rural regions need to be considered. Discussion and conclusions The research presentation will further outline the major findings of the study in regards to maximising the efficiency of RBT operations both within urban and rural areas of Queensland, Australia.

Examining the stability of transport behaviours for high-risk early adolescents

Transport related injury is a leading cause of death and disability for adolescents and represents a substantial burden on public health and the community as a whole. Adolescents appear to have a growing risk of harm due to the co-existence of increasing alcohol use and engagement in risky transport behaviours. Understanding more about the development and stability of these behaviours by young adolescents over time could be beneficial in targeting transport injury prevention interventions for high-risk adolescents. In Australia alcohol use begins to increase significantly through the early and middle adolescent years even though the majority of these young people are still in school. Aim This paper reports on changes over a six month period in alcohol use, anger management experiences and transport risk taking behaviours including riding a bicycle without a helmet and under-age driving for high-risk adolescents and non high-risk early adolescents. Year 9 students (N=1,005) from 20 schools in Queensland, Australia completed a baseline survey in the first half of 2012 and at a six month follow up. Respondents at both times were asked about their engagement in risk taking behaviours measured by Mak’s adolescent delinquency scale, which included five transport related items. They were also asked to rate their alcohol use for the preceding three month period. The stability of these risk taking indicators was measured by comparing baseline results with the six month follow up. Results High-risk adolescents were more likely to report change in their alcohol use and transport behaviours when compared with non high-risk adolescents over a six month period. There were no significant changes in control of anger for either group. Demographic characteristics were not shown to have any significant effect on the stability of risk indicators for high-risk adolescents and non high-risk adolescents. Differences were found in the stability of risk taking indicators for high-risk adolescents and non high-risk adolescents. The findings of this paper have implications in targeting transport risk behaviour change interventions to meet the needs of high-risk adolescents.

Developing targets and strategies for school-based injury prevention programs to reduce alcohol associated transport risks

Background There is considerable and ongoing debate about the role and effectiveness of school-based injury prevention programs in reducing students’ later involvement in alcohol associated transport injuries. Most relevant literature is concerned with pre-driving and licensing programs for middle age range adolescents (15-17 years). This research team is concerned with prevention at an earlier stage by targeting interventions to young adolescents (13-14 years). There is strong evidence that young adolescents who engage in unsafe and illegal alcohol associated transport risks are significantly likely to incur serious related injuries in longitudinal follow up. For example, a state-wide representative sample of male adolescents (mean age 14.5 years) who reported being passengers of drink drivers were significantly more likely to have incurred a hospitalised injury related to traffic events at a 20 year follow up. Aim This paper reports on first aid training integrated with peer protection and school connectedness within the Skills for Preventing Injury in Youth (SPIY) program. A component of the intervention is concerned with providing strategies to reduce the likelihood of being a passenger of a drink driver and effectiveness is followed up at six months post-intervention. Method In early 2012 the study was undertaken in 35 high schools throughout Queensland that were randomly assigned to intervention and control conditions. A total of 2,521 Year 9 students (mean age 13.5years, 43% male) completed surveys prior to the intervention. Results Of these students 316 (13.7%) reported having ridden in a car with someone who has been drinking. This is a traffic safety behaviour that is particularly relevant to a peer protection intervention and the findings of the six month follow up will be reported. Discussion and conclusions This research will provide evidence as to whether this approach to the introduction of first aid skills within a school-based health education curriculum has traffic safety implications.

Exploring cultural, social and psychosocial influences on women's drinking across the life span

Background Changing trends in women's alcohol consumption have demonstrated that women, in both younger and older cohorts, are drinking at increased levels than previously. However, little research investigates these changing trends or the influences behind them. Aims The current research aims to identify influences on women's drinking across a range of age groups, with a focus on multiple level influences (i.e. cultural, social and psychosocial). Methods One hour semi-structured telephone interviews were conducted, in 2011, with 35 women (aged 18-55) residing in Australia. Interview development was guided by an adaptation of Bronfenbrenner's Bioecological Model of Development (BBMD) to assess multiple areas of influences from cultural through to psychosocial. Results Interview findings highlighted the existence of multiple levels of influence on women’s drinking and thus provided support for the BBMD framework. Cultural influences identified related to gender roles and national identity. Exosystem influences (e.g. legislation, infrastructure, and media) and Microsystem influences (e.g. immediate social networks) were also identified. A range of psychosocial factors, such as identity, normative influence and attitude were also found as influencing drinking behaviours. Finally, changes across a woman’s life span, and intergenerational differences, were Chronosystem constructs that also emerged as key influences. Discussion and conclusions This study has provided an in-depth understanding into the key factors, occurring across multiple levels of influence, impacting upon women's drinking across younger and older cohorts. The findings also highlight changes in alcohol-related attitudes and behaviours across a life span and across generations. Future research should extend upon these findings based on larger, quantitative studies based on representative samples. The findings do provide key insights into the influences that need to be addressed within targeted interventions.

Knowledge and behaviours of drunk driving offenders in Guangzhou, China

Background Alcohol is a major contributor to road crashes in China (Li, Xie, Nie, & Zhang, 2012; Cochrane, & Chen, 2003). Two levels of offence are defined in legislation: the lower level is driving under the influence (DUI, also translated as “drink driving”) and the higher level is driving while intoxicated (DWI, also translated as “drunk driving”, where the driver has BAC>0.08mg/100ml). This study focuses on a 2011 legislative amendment that made drunk driving (DWI) a criminal offence. However, it is not known whether drivers are aware of the law, and whether this knowledge, their exposure to enforcement and the existence of alcohol use disorders relate to their drink driving behaviour. This study explored these relationships in a sample of convicted drunk drivers. Method A survey collected information about offenders’ knowledge and practices related to drunk driving in Guangzhou. The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) (Babor, & Grant, 1989; Chen, & Cheng, 2005) assessed hazardous drinking levels. In total, 101 drunk driving offenders were recruited while in detention. Results Males represented 90% of the sample; the average age was 33.6 years (SD=8.7; range 17-59 years). The average age at which offenders reported starting to drink alcohol was 19.5 years (SD=4.1; range 8-30 years). Driver’s licences had been held for a median of 7 years. Knowledge about legal limits for DUI and DWI offences was surprisingly low, at 27.7% and 40.6% respectively. On average, offenders had experienced 1.5 police alcohol breath tests in the previous year (SD=1.3; range 1-10). AUDIT scores indicated that a substantial proportion of the offenders had high levels of alcohol use disorders. Higher AUDIT scores were found among the least experienced drivers, those with lack of knowledge about the legal limits, and recidivist drunk drivers. Discussion and conclusions Limited awareness of legal alcohol limits might contribute to offending; high levels of alcohol consumption by many offenders suggest that hazardous drinking levels may also contribute. Novice drivers are a concern and their higher AUDIT scores merit some followup. Overall, this study provides important information to assist in refining community education and prevention efforts to align with China’s new regulations.

A qualitative investigation of drug use among Pakistani road users

Background Statistics on drug use by Pakistani drivers are not available, yet considerable numbers of drivers are believed to be drug addicted. The National Drug Abuse Assessment 2006/07, conducted by the United Nation Office on Drugs and Crime and the Ministry of Narcotics Control Pakistan reported that opiate users numbered 628,000, of which 77%were chronic heroin abusers. Injecting drug users have reportedly doubled in the decade to 2006 and drug use has been linked with many major crashes involving professional drivers. Aims This study explored a broad range of risk taking behaviours of road users, including drug use. It also investigated associations between risky road use and fatalism and other cultural beliefs. Methods This paper reports findings relating to drug driving in the cities of Lahore, Rawalpindi and Islamabad. Thirty semi-structured interviews were conducted with bus, truck, and taxi drivers, policy makers and field police officers. Results Interviews suggested widespread use of illicit drugs, particularly among bus, truck and taxi drivers. Reasons for drug use included recreational purposes, stimulants during long driving episodes, and substance addiction. Furthermore, the use of drugs and any association with road crashes was generally viewed as linked to fatalism rather than to any fault of an individual. In other words, people did not believe there was an association between drug use and road crashes, even if they had personally experienced such. Police knowledge of drug use among drivers was evident, although there is no formal drug driving testing regime in Pakistan. Discussion and conclusions The substantial increase in drug use among the population in recent years highlights a significant public health challenge in Pakistan. This qualitative research, although recognized as not representative of the broader population, suggests that there is significant cause for concern about drug driving, especially among professional drivers, and a need for further investigation and intervention.

Exploring the influences of country-level factors on mid-age women’s drink driving attitudes

Drink driving remains a major cause of serious and fatal car crashes in Australia and internationally. While this problem is more prevalent among male drivers, the rates of female intoxicated drivers have increased steadily over the past decades in many motorised countries. A combination of police enforcement, media awareness campaigns, and community initiatives has played a key role in reducing incidents of illegal drink driving by targeting public drink driving attitudes. However, important cultural differences in regards to the tolerance towards drink driving have been noted. While many countries, including Australia, have a legal Blood Alcohol Concentration (BAC) limit of .05 or higher, some countries have moved towards a zero –or low tolerance approach to drink driving; several European countries, including Sweden, Hungary, Slovakia, and Estonia currently enforce .00 or .02 BAC limits.