Parameter estimation of structural commodity price models

Commodity price modeling is normally approached in terms of structural time-series models, in which the different components (states) have a financial interpretation. The parameters of these models can be estimated using maximum likelihood. This approach results in a non-linear parameter estimation problem and thus a key issue is how to obtain reliable initial estimates. In this paper, we focus on the initial parameter estimation problem for the Schwartz-Smith two-factor model commonly used in asset valuation. We propose the use of a two-step method. The first step considers a univariate model based only on the spot price and uses a transfer function model to obtain initial estimates of the fundamental parameters. The second step uses the estimates obtained in the first step to initialize a re-parameterized state-space-innovations based estimator, which includes information related to future prices. The second step refines the estimates obtained in the first step and also gives estimates of the remaining parameters in the model. This paper is part tutorial in nature and gives an introduction to aspects of commodity price modeling and the associated parameter estimation problem.

Nephrotoxicity and nephrocarcinogenicity of dinitrotoluene : new aspects to be considered

Technical dinitrotoluene (DNT) is a mixture of 2,4- and 2,6-DNT. In humans, industrial or environmental exposure can occur orally, by inhalation, or by skin contact. The classification of DNT as an 'animal carcinogen' is based on the formation of malignant tumors in kidneys, liver, and mammary glands of rats and mice. Clear signs of toxic nephropathy were found in rats dosed with DNT, and the concept was derived of an interrelation between renal toxicity and carcinogenicity. Recent data point to the carcinogenicity of DNT on the urinary tract of exposed humans. Between 1984 and 1997, 6 cases of urothelial cancer and 14 cases of renal cell cancer were diagnosed in a group of 500 underground mining workers in the copper mining industry of the former GDR and having high exposures to explosives containing technical DNT. The incidences of both urothelial and renal cell tumors in this group were 4.5 and 14.3 times higher, respectively, than anticipated on the basis of the cancer registers of the GDR. The genotyping of all identified tumor patients for the polymorphic enzymes NAT2, GSTM1, and GSTT1 identified the urothelial tumor cases as exclusively 'slow acetylates'. A group of 161 miners highly exposed to DNT was investigated for signs of subclinical renal damage. The exposures were categorized semi-quantitatively into 'low', 'medium', 'high', and 'very high'. A straight dose-dependence of the excretion of urinary biomarker proteins with the ranking of exposure was seen. Biomarker excretion (alpha1-microglobulin, glutathione S-transferases alpha and pi) indicated that DNT-induced damage was directed toward the tubular system. New data on DNT-exposed humans appear consistent with the concept of cancer initiation by DNT isomers and the subsequent promotion of renal carcinogenesis by selective damage to the proximal tubule. The differential pathways of metabolic activation of DNT appear to apply to the proximal tubule of the kidney and to the urothelium of the renal pelvis and lower urinary tract as target tissues of carcinogenicity.

European aspects of standard setting in occupational hygiene and medicine

Occupational standards concerning the allowable concentrations of chemical compounds in the ambient air of workplaces have been established in several countries at national levels. With the integration of the European Union, a need exists for establishing harmonized Occupational Exposure Limits. For analytical developments, it is apparent that methods for speciation or fractionation of carcinogenic metal compounds will be of increasing practical importance for standard setting. Criteria of applicability under field conditions, cost-effectiveness, and robustness are practical driving forces for new developments. When the European Union issued a list of 62 chemical substances with Occupational Exposure Limits in 2000, 25 substances received a 'skin' notation. The latter indicates that toxicologically significant amounts may be taken up via the skin. Similar notations exist on national levels. For such substances, monitoring concentrations in ambient air will not be sufficient; biological monitoring strategies will gain further importance in the medical surveillance of workers who are exposed to such compounds. Proceedings in establishing legal frameworks for a biological monitoring of chemical exposures within Europe are paralleled by scientific advances in this field. A new aspect is the possibility of a differential adduct monitoring, using blood proteins of different half-life or lifespan. This technique allows differentiation between long-term mean exposure to reactive chemicals and short-term episodes, for example, by accidental overexposure. For further analytical developments, the following issues have been addressed as being particularly important: New dose monitoring strategies, sensitive and reliable methods for detection of DNA adducts, cytogenetic parameters in biological monitoring, methods to monitor exposure to sensitizing chemicals, and parameters for individual susceptibilities to chemical toxicants.

Activation of membrane-bound proteins and receptor systems: A link between tissue kallikrein and the KLK-related peptidases

The 15 members of the kallikrein-related serine peptidase (KLK) family have diverse tissue-specific expression profiles and roles in a range of cellular processes, including proliferation, migration, invasion, differentiation, inflammation and angiogenesis that are required in both normal physiology as well as pathological conditions. These roles require cleavage of a range of substrates, including extracellular matrix proteins, growth factors, cytokines as well as other proteinases. In addition, it has been clear since the earliest days of KLK research that cleavage of cell surface substrates is also essential in a range of KLK-mediated cellular processes where these peptidases are essentially acting as agonists and antagonists. In this review we focus on these KLK-regulated cell surface receptor systems including bradykinin receptors, proteinase-activated receptors, as well as the plasminogen activator, ephrins and their receptors, and hepatocyte growth factor/Met receptor systems and other plasma membrane proteins. From this analysis it is clear that in many physiological and pathological settings KLKs have the potential to regulate multiple receptor systems simultaneously; an important issue when these peptidases and substrates are targeted in disease.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to four selected environmental risk factors in South Africa

INTRODUCTION: The first South African National Burden of Disease study quantified the underlying causes of premature mortality and morbidity experienced in South Africa in the year 2000. This was followed by a Comparative Risk Assessment to estimate the contributions of 17 selected risk factors to burden of disease in South Africa. This paper describes the health impact of exposure to four selected environmental risk factors: unsafe water, sanitation and hygiene; indoor air pollution from household use of solid fuels; urban outdoor air pollution and lead exposure. METHODS: The study followed World Health Organization comparative risk assessment methodology. Population-attributable fractions were calculated and applied to revised burden of disease estimates (deaths and disability adjusted life years, [DALYs]) from the South African Burden of Disease study to obtain the attributable burden for each selected risk factor. The burden attributable to the joint effect of the four environmental risk factors was also estimated taking into account competing risks and common pathways. Monte Carlo simulation-modeling techniques were used to quantify sampling, uncertainty. RESULTS: Almost 24 000 deaths were attributable to the joint effect of these four environmental risk factors, accounting for 4.6% (95% uncertainty interval 3.8-5.3%) of all deaths in South Africa in 2000. Overall the burden due to these environmental risks was equivalent to 3.7% (95% uncertainty interval 3.4-4.0%) of the total disease burden for South Africa, with unsafe water sanitation and hygiene the main contributor to joint burden. The joint attributable burden was especially high in children under 5 years of age, accounting for 10.8% of total deaths in this age group and 9.7% of burden of disease. CONCLUSION: This study highlights the public health impact of exposure to environmental risks and the significant burden of preventable disease attributable to exposure to these four major environmental risk factors in South Africa. Evidence-based policies and programs must be developed and implemented to address these risk factors at individual, household, and community levels.

Social policy implications relating to road trauma in a rapidly motorising world : the example of China

The World Health Organization (WHO) identifies road trauma as a major public health issue in all countries, though most notably among low-to-middle income countries and particularly those experiencing rapid motorisation, such as China. As China transitions from a nation of bicycle riders and pedestrians to one where car ownership is increasingly desired, there is need to address the accompanying social policy challenges. With this increased motorisation has come an increased road trauma burden, shouldered disproportionately among the population. Vulnerable road users (i.e., pedestrians, cyclists, motorcyclists) are of primary concern because they are most frequently killed in road crashes, representing approximately 70% of all Chinese road-related fatalities. The aim of this paper is to summarise the scale of the road trauma burden, highlight the disparity of this burden across the Chinese population, and discuss the related social policy implications in dealing with the impact of deaths and of otherwise healthy lives diminished by injury and disability. Future research priorities are also discussed and include the need to strive to provide detailed information on the level of inequity of the road trauma burden across the population and identify appropriate social supports and healthcare services required, both preventative and post-crash, so these can be developed and implemented throughout China.

Degradation of hydroxycinnamic acid mixtures in aqueous sucrose solutions by the Fenton process

The degradation efficiencies and behaviors of caffeic acid (CaA), p-coumaric acid (pCoA) and ferulic acid (FeA) in aqueous sucrose solutions containing the mixture of these hydroxycinnamic acids (HCAs) mixtures were studied by the Fenton oxidation process. Central composite design and multi-response surface methodology were used to evaluate and optimize the interactive effects of process parameters. Four quadratic polynomial models were developed for the degradation of each individual acid in the mixture and the total HCAs degraded. Sucrose was the most influential parameter that significantly affected the total amount of HCA degraded. Under the conditions studied there was < 0.01% loss of sucrose in all reactions. The optimal values of the process parameters for a 200 mg/L HCA mixture in water (pH 4.73, 25.15 °C) and sucrose solution (13 mass%, pH 5.39, 35.98 °C) were 77% and 57% respectively. Regression analysis showed goodness of fit between the experimental results and the predicted values. The degradation behavior of CaA differed from those of pCoA and FeA, where further CaA degradation is observed at increasing sucrose and decreasing solution pH. The differences (established using UV/Vis and ATR-FTIR spectroscopy) were because, unlike the other acids, CaA formed a complex with Fe(III) or with Fe(III) hydrogen-bonded to sucrose, and coprecipitated with lepidocrocite, an iron oxyhydroxide.

A subexponential construction of graph coloring for multiparty computation

We show the first deterministic construction of an unconditionally secure multiparty computation (MPC) protocol in the passive adversarial model over black-box non-Abelian groups which is both optimal (secure against an adversary who possesses any tof construction based on coloring of planar graphs. More specifically, following the result of Desmedt et al. (2012) that the problem of MPC over non-Abelian groups can be reduced to finding a t-reliable n-coloring of planar graphs, we show the construction of such a graph which allows a path from the input nodes to the output nodes when any t-party subset is in the possession of the adversary. Unlike the deterministic constructions from Desmedt et al. (2012) our construction has subexponential complexity and is optimal at the same time, i.e., it is secure for any t

In pursuit of some appreciation: Assessment and group membership in children’s second stories

Group membership is central to social interaction. Within peer groups, social hierarchies and affiliations are matters to which members seriously attend (Corsaro, 2014). Studies of peer groups highlight how status is achieved through oppositional actions. This paper examines the way in which competition and collaboration in a children’s peer group accomplishes status during the production and management of “second stories” (Sacks 1992). We present analysis of the interaction of young boys in a preparatory year playground who are engaged in a single instance of storytelling “rounds”. Analysis highlights the pivotal role of members’ contributions, assessments and receipts in a series of second stories that enact a simultaneously competitive and collaborative local order.

Anatomical studies of the flower, fruit and seeds of Myrceugenia rufa (Myrtaceae)

Myceugenia rufa is a rare and endemic species from the coast of central Chile. There are no published studies describing flower, fruit or seed anatomy. Forty-two accessions were collected from across the geographic range of the species. Reproductive structures were fixed, dehydrated, embedded in paraffin, sectioned and stained with Safranin O and Fast green. Anatomy of floral buds, mature flowers, fruits and seeds was described. Reproductive anatomy matches that of other Myrtaceae, such as presence of druses, internal phloem and schizogenous secretory cavities in buds, flowers, fruits and seeds. The anatomy and development of reproductive structures of M. rufa might enhance the understanding for future studies regarding natural reproduction and conservation programs.

Leaf micromorphology and anatomy of Myrceugenia rufa (Myrtaceae): An endemic coastal shrub of north-central Chile

Species of fleshy-fruited Myrtaceae are generally associated with humid environments and their vegetative anatomy is mainly mesophytic. Myrceugenia rufa is an endemic and rare species from arid zones of the coast of central Chile and there are no anatomical studies regarding its leaf anatomy and environmental adaptations. Here we describe the leaf micromorphology and anatomy of the species using standard protocols for light and scanning electron microscopy. The leaf anatomy of M. rufa matches that of other Myrtaceae, such as presence of druses, schizogenous secretory ducts and internal phloem. Leaves of M. rufa exhibit a double epidermis, thick cuticle, abundant unicellular hairs, large substomatal chambers covered by trichomes and a dense palisade parenchyma. Leaf characters of M. rufa confirm an anatomical adaptation to xerophytic environments.

‘Appreciate A Mate’ Helping others to feel good about themselves. Safe and Well Online: A report on the development and evaluation of a positive messaging social marketing campaign for young people.

This report describes the Year Two/Campaign Two processes, and articulates findings from the major project components designed to address the challenges noted above (see Figure 1). Three major components comprise the Safe and Well Online project: 1) A participatory design (PD) process involving young people and sector partners (UWS) for; 2) campaign development (Zuni & Digital Arts Network); and 3) a cohort study (University of South Australia) to evaluate campaign effectiveness and attitude and behaviour change. Each sub-study comprehensively considered the ethical requirements of conducting online research with minors. The theoretical and methodological framework for measuring campaign engagement and efficacy (Sub-studies 3, 4 and 5) drew on the Model of Goal Directed Behaviour (MGB) (Perugini & Bagozzi 2001) and Nudge Theory (Thaler & Sunstein, 2008). This report extends the findings and conclusions of the Year One Pilot Study ‘‘Keep it Tame’’ (Spears et.al, 2015), and details the development and evaluation of the second of four Safe and Well Online Campaigns—‘‘Appreciate A Mate’: Helping others feel good about themselves’.

Localization of type 1 diabetes susceptibility to the MHC class I genes HLA-B and HLA-A

The major histocompatibility complex (MHC) on chromosome 6 is associated with susceptibility to more common diseases than any other region of the human genome, including almost all disorders classified as autoimmune. In type 1 diabetes the major genetic susceptibility determinants have been mapped to the MHC class II genes HLA-DQB1 and HLA-DRB1 (refs 1–3), but these genes cannot completely explain the association between type 1 diabetes and the MHC region4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11. Owing to the region's extreme gene density, the multiplicity of disease-associated alleles, strong associations between alleles, limited genotyping capability, and inadequate statistical approaches and sample sizes, which, and how many, loci within the MHC determine susceptibility remains unclear. Here, in several large type 1 diabetes data sets, we analyse a combined total of 1,729 polymorphisms, and apply statistical methods—recursive partitioning and regression...