The development of Monte Carlo techniques for the verification of radiotherapy treatments

Radiotherapy is a cancer treatment modality in which a dose of ionising radiation is delivered to a tumour. The accurate calculation of the dose to the patient is very important in the design of an effective therapeutic strategy. This study aimed to systematically examine the accuracy of the radiotherapy dose calculations performed by clinical treatment planning systems by comparison againstMonte Carlo simulations of the treatment delivery. A suite of software tools known as MCDTK (Monte Carlo DICOM ToolKit) was developed for this purpose, and is capable of: • Importing DICOM-format radiotherapy treatment plans and producing Monte Carlo simulation input files (allowing simple simulation of complex treatments), and calibrating the results; • Analysing the predicted doses of and deviations between the Monte Carlo simulation results and treatment planning system calculations in regions of interest (tumours and organs-at-risk) and generating dose-volume histograms, so that conformity with dose prescriptions can be evaluated. The code has been tested against various treatment planning systems, linear acceleratormodels and treatment complexities. Six clinical head and neck cancer treatments were simulated and the results analysed using this software. The deviations were greatest where the treatment volume encompassed tissues on both sides of an air cavity. This was likely due to the method the planning system used to model low density media.

Using Bayesian methods for the estimation of uncertainty in complex statistical models

The research objectives of this thesis were to contribute to Bayesian statistical methodology by contributing to risk assessment statistical methodology, and to spatial and spatio-temporal methodology, by modelling error structures using complex hierarchical models. Specifically, I hoped to consider two applied areas, and use these applications as a springboard for developing new statistical methods as well as undertaking analyses which might give answers to particular applied questions. Thus, this thesis considers a series of models, firstly in the context of risk assessments for recycled water, and secondly in the context of water usage by crops. The research objective was to model error structures using hierarchical models in two problems, namely risk assessment analyses for wastewater, and secondly, in a four dimensional dataset, assessing differences between cropping systems over time and over three spatial dimensions. The aim was to use the simplicity and insight afforded by Bayesian networks to develop appropriate models for risk scenarios, and again to use Bayesian hierarchical models to explore the necessarily complex modelling of four dimensional agricultural data. The specific objectives of the research were to develop a method for the calculation of credible intervals for the point estimates of Bayesian networks; to develop a model structure to incorporate all the experimental uncertainty associated with various constants thereby allowing the calculation of more credible credible intervals for a risk assessment; to model a single day’s data from the agricultural dataset which satisfactorily captured the complexities of the data; to build a model for several days’ data, in order to consider how the full data might be modelled; and finally to build a model for the full four dimensional dataset and to consider the timevarying nature of the contrast of interest, having satisfactorily accounted for possible spatial and temporal autocorrelations. This work forms five papers, two of which have been published, with two submitted, and the final paper still in draft. The first two objectives were met by recasting the risk assessments as directed, acyclic graphs (DAGs). In the first case, we elicited uncertainty for the conditional probabilities needed by the Bayesian net, incorporated these into a corresponding DAG, and used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to find credible intervals, for all the scenarios and outcomes of interest. In the second case, we incorporated the experimental data underlying the risk assessment constants into the DAG, and also treated some of that data as needing to be modelled as an ‘errors-invariables’ problem [Fuller, 1987]. This illustrated a simple method for the incorporation of experimental error into risk assessments. In considering one day of the three-dimensional agricultural data, it became clear that geostatistical models or conditional autoregressive (CAR) models over the three dimensions were not the best way to approach the data. Instead CAR models are used with neighbours only in the same depth layer. This gave flexibility to the model, allowing both the spatially structured and non-structured variances to differ at all depths. We call this model the CAR layered model. Given the experimental design, the fixed part of the model could have been modelled as a set of means by treatment and by depth, but doing so allows little insight into how the treatment effects vary with depth. Hence, a number of essentially non-parametric approaches were taken to see the effects of depth on treatment, with the model of choice incorporating an errors-in-variables approach for depth in addition to a non-parametric smooth. The statistical contribution here was the introduction of the CAR layered model, the applied contribution the analysis of moisture over depth and estimation of the contrast of interest together with its credible intervals. These models were fitted using WinBUGS [Lunn et al., 2000]. The work in the fifth paper deals with the fact that with large datasets, the use of WinBUGS becomes more problematic because of its highly correlated term by term updating. In this work, we introduce a Gibbs sampler with block updating for the CAR layered model. The Gibbs sampler was implemented by Chris Strickland using pyMCMC [Strickland, 2010]. This framework is then used to consider five days data, and we show that moisture in the soil for all the various treatments reaches levels particular to each treatment at a depth of 200 cm and thereafter stays constant, albeit with increasing variances with depth. In an analysis across three spatial dimensions and across time, there are many interactions of time and the spatial dimensions to be considered. Hence, we chose to use a daily model and to repeat the analysis at all time points, effectively creating an interaction model of time by the daily model. Such an approach allows great flexibility. However, this approach does not allow insight into the way in which the parameter of interest varies over time. Hence, a two-stage approach was also used, with estimates from the first-stage being analysed as a set of time series. We see this spatio-temporal interaction model as being a useful approach to data measured across three spatial dimensions and time, since it does not assume additivity of the random spatial or temporal effects.

A child led participatory approach for technology-based intervention

There is significant interest in Human-computer interaction methods that assist in the design of applications for use by children. Many of these approaches draw upon standard HCI methods,such as personas, scenarios, and probes. However, often these techniques require communication and kinds of thinking skills that are designer centred,which prevents children with Autism Spectrum Disorders or other learning and communication disabilities from being able to participate. This study investigates methods that might be used with children with ASD or other learning and communication disabilities to inspire the design of technology based intervention approaches to support their speech and language development. Similar to Iversen and Brodersen, we argue that children with ASD should not be treated as being in some way “cognitively incomplete”. Rather they are experts in their everyday lives and we cannot design future IT without involving them. However, how do we involve them Instead of beginning with HCI methods, we draw upon easy to use technologies and methods used in the therapy professions for child engagement, particularly utilizing the approaches of Hanen (2011) and Greenspan (1998). These approaches emphasize following the child’s lead and ensuring that the child always has a legitimate turn at a detailed level of interaction. In a pilot project, we have studied a child’s interactions with their parents about activities over which they have control – photos that they have taken at school on an iPad. The iPad was simple enough for this child with ASD to use and they enjoyed taking and reviewing photos. We use this small case study as an example of a child-led approach for a child with ASD. We examine interactions from this study in order to assess the possibilities and limitations of the child-led approach for supporting the design of technology based interventions to support speech and language development.

A phenomenological model for the structure-composition relationship of the high Tc cuprates based on simple chemical principles

A simple phenomenological model for the relationship between structure and composition of the high Tc cuprates is presented. The model is based on two simple crystal chemistry principles: unit cell doping and charge balance within unit cells. These principles are inspired by key experimental observations of how the materials accommodate large deviations from stoichiometry. Consistent explanations for significant HTSC properties can be explained without any additional assumptions while retaining valuable insight for geometric interpretation. Combining these two chemical principles with a review of Crystal Field Theory (CFT) or Ligand Field Theory (LFT), it becomes clear that the two oxidation states in the conduction planes (typically d8 and d9) belong to the most strongly divergent d-levels as a function of deformation from regular octahedral coordination. This observation offers a link to a range of coupling effects relating vibrations and spin waves through application of Hund’s rules. An indication of this model’s capacity to predict physical properties for HTSC is provided and will be elaborated in subsequent publications. Simple criteria for the relationship between structure and composition in HTSC systems may guide chemical syntheses within new material systems.

Wound healing angiogenesis : the clinical implications of a simple mathematical model

Nonhealing wounds are a major burden for health care systems worldwide. In addition, a patient who suffers from this type of wound usually has a reduced quality of life. While the wound healing process is undoubtedly complex, in this paper we develop a deterministic mathematical model, formulated as a system of partial differential equations, that focusses on an important aspect of successful healing: oxygen supply to the wound bed by a combination of diffusion from the surrounding unwounded tissue and delivery from newly formed blood vessels. While the model equations can be solved numerically, the emphasis here is on the use of asymptotic methods to establish conditions under which new blood vessel growth can be initiated and wound-bed angiogenesis can progress. These conditions are given in terms of key model parameters including the rate of oxygen supply and its rate of consumption in the wound. We use our model to discuss the clinical use of treatments such as hyperbaric oxygen therapy, wound bed debridement, and revascularisation therapy that have the potential to initiate healing in chronic, stalled wounds.

Mathematical modelling of tumour-induced angiogenesis

The growth of solid tumours beyond a critical size is dependent upon angiogenesis, the formation of new blood vessels from an existing vasculature. Tumours may remain dormant at microscopic sizes for some years before switching to a mode in which growth of a supportive vasculature is initiated. The new blood vessels supply nutrients, oxygen, and access to routes by which tumour cells may travel to other sites within the host (metastasize). In recent decades an abundance of biological research has focused on tumour-induced angiogenesis in the hope that treatments targeted at the vasculature may result in a stabilisation or regression of the disease: a tantalizing prospect. The complex and fascinating process of angiogenesis has also attracted the interest of researchers in the field of mathematical biology, a discipline that is, for mathematics, relatively new. The challenge in mathematical biology is to produce a model that captures the essential elements and critical dependencies of a biological system. Such a model may ultimately be used as a predictive tool. In this thesis we examine a number of aspects of tumour-induced angiogenesis, focusing on growth of the neovasculature external to the tumour. Firstly we present a one-dimensional continuum model of tumour-induced angiogenesis in which elements of the immune system or other tumour-cytotoxins are delivered via the newly formed vessels. This model, based on observations from experiments by Judah Folkman et al., is able to show regression of the tumour for some parameter regimes. The modelling highlights a number of interesting aspects of the process that may be characterised further in the laboratory. The next model we present examines the initiation positions of blood vessel sprouts on an existing vessel, in a two-dimensional domain. This model hypothesises that a simple feedback inhibition mechanism may be used to describe the spacing of these sprouts with the inhibitor being produced by breakdown of the existing vessel's basement membrane. Finally, we have developed a stochastic model of blood vessel growth and anastomosis in three dimensions. The model has been implemented in C++, includes an openGL interface, and uses a novel algorithm for calculating proximity of the line segments representing a growing vessel. This choice of programming language and graphics interface allows for near-simultaneous calculation and visualisation of blood vessel networks using a contemporary personal computer. In addition the visualised results may be transformed interactively, and drop-down menus facilitate changes in the parameter values. Visualisation of results is of vital importance in the communication of mathematical information to a wide audience, and we aim to incorporate this philosophy in the thesis. As biological research further uncovers the intriguing processes involved in tumourinduced angiogenesis, we conclude with a comment from mathematical biologist Jim Murray, Mathematical biology is : : : the most exciting modern application of mathematics.

Measuring bitrate and quality trade-off in a fast region-of-interest based video coding

Prevailing video adaptation solutions change the quality of the video uniformly throughout the whole frame in the bitrate adjustment process; while region-of-interest (ROI)-based solutions selectively retains the quality in the areas of the frame where the viewers are more likely to pay more attention to. ROI-based coding can improve perceptual quality and viewer satisfaction while trading off some bandwidth. However, there has been no comprehensive study to measure the bitrate vs. perceptual quality trade-off so far. The paper proposes an ROI detection scheme for videos, which is characterized with low computational complexity and robustness, and measures the bitrate vs. quality trade-off for ROI-based encoding using a state-of-the-art H.264/AVC encoder to justify the viability of this type of encoding method. The results from the subjective quality test reveal that ROI-based encoding achieves a significant perceptual quality improvement over the encoding with uniform quality at the cost of slightly more bits. Based on the bitrate measurements and subjective quality assessments, the bitrate and the perceptual quality estimation models for non-scalable ROI-based video coding (AVC) are developed, which are found to be similar to the models for scalable video coding (SVC).

Eight simple rules for losing your doctoral virginity

Right now, there are thousands of brand new PhD candidates entering universities around the country. Many of them will be highly anxious, knowing that they have a long, difficult journey ahead of them which, statistically speaking, they have less than a 75 per cent chance of completing successfully...

A behavioural car-following model that captures traffic oscillations

This paper presents a behavioral car-following model based on empirical trajectory data that is able to reproduce the spontaneous formation and ensuing propagation of stop-and-go waves in congested traffic. By analyzing individual drivers’ car-following behavior throughout oscillation cycles it is found that this behavior is consistent across drivers and can be captured by a simple model. The statistical analysis of the model’s parameters reveals that there is a strong correlation between driver behavior before and during the oscillation, and that this correlation should not be ignored if one is interested in microscopic output. If macroscopic outputs are of interest, simulation results indicate that an existing model with fewer parameters can be used instead. This is shown for traffic oscillations caused by rubbernecking as observed in the US 101 NGSIM dataset. The same experiment is used to establish the relationship between rubbernecking behavior and the period of oscillations.

Something rotten in the state of Minnesota: or the morality of backwoodsmen: 'A Simple Plan'

'A Simple Plan' is a deceptively complex and multilayered film, combining elements of Celtic mythology with the morality play and the windfall fantasy gone disastrously wrong. Despite its blending of realism and heavyhanded symbolism, and its abundant trans-textual gestures, 'A Simple Plan' is in many ways defiantly not a 90s movie: its leading characters are fashionably flawed, but they are neither sensitive, nor honourable, nor heroic; there are no startling special effects or intricate timeshifts; and it desperately gives the impression of depth, of being emphatically more than mere superficial excess. At a stretch it almost appears to be a throwback to the 1930s Production Code emphasis on the role of cinema in moral instruction; while good hardly triumphs over evil, venality is painfully and emphatically punished. But in other ways it is a quintessential late 90s film: an American/British/Japanese/German/French co-production, 'A Simple Plan' acts most palpably as a commentary on the moral, economic and social condition of the United States at the end of the American century.

Volunteers :what we need to find out(and why we need to do it)

Public interest in volunteering in Australia has markedly escalated over the past five years, reflected in a number of publications in the popular, professional and academic press. This interest is welcome, and in many ways, is long overdue. Volunteers, or employing a term we find more useful, voluntarism is important for a number of reasons, not least of which is its structural role in the social institutions we have developed to support people, manage dependencies and facilitate a range of developmental activities across the life span. Voluntarism is an extremely complex social phenomenon. Conceptually, it transcends the sum of its parts, in that it is more than a simple aggregation of instances of individual behaviours. Our core argument here is that this complexity is such that equally intricate and multi-faceted perspectives and models need to be employed to further our understanding. In academic speak, this means that we need to develop analytical frameworks that draw on the breadth and depth of the social sciences...

Simple as ABC? An examination of Activity Based Costing (ABC) Implementation in Fiji

We review the level of Activity Based Costing (ABC) in Fiji in this article. This exercise is important in furthering our understanding of the use of ABC in Fiji. ABC is a popular costing system and strategic tool for organizations in developed countries (Chenhall and Langfield-Smith 1998). However, little is known about the benefits and challenges of implementing ABC in developing countries. Such an understanding could stimulate discussion on the development or modification of ABC to suit developing country circumstances. The article also has a practical objective in informing and education organizations in Fiji regarding the benefits and challenges of ABC implementation in Fiji and also provides practical suggestions for improving and easing the implementation of ABC.

Simple rules to contain an invasive species with a complex life cycle and high dispersal capacity

Designing practical rules for controlling invasive species is a challenging task for managers, particularly when species are long-lived, have complex life cycles and high dispersal capacities. Previous findings derived from plant matrix population analyses suggest that effective control of long-lived invaders may be achieved by focusing on killing adult plants. However, the cost-effectiveness of managing different life stages has not been evaluated. We illustrate the benefits of integrating matrix population models with decision theory to undertake this evaluation, using empirical data from the largest infestation of mesquite (Leguminosae: Prosopis spp) within Australia. We include in our model the mesquite life cycle, different dispersal rates and control actions that target individuals at different life stages with varying costs, depending on the intensity of control effort. We then use stochastic dynamic programming to derive cost-effective control strategies that minimize the cost of controlling the core infestation locally below a density threshold and the future cost of control arising from infestation of adjacent areas via seed dispersal. Through sensitivity analysis, we show that four robust management rules guide the allocation of resources between mesquite life stages for this infestation: (i) When there is no seed dispersal, no action is required until density of adults exceeds the control threshold and then only control of adults is needed; (ii) when there is seed dispersal, control strategy is dependent on knowledge of the density of adults and large juveniles (LJ) and broad categories of dispersal rates only; (iii) if density of adults is higher than density of LJ, controlling adults is most cost-effective; (iv) alternatively, if density of LJ is equal or higher than density of adults, management efforts should be spread between adults, large and to a lesser extent small juveniles, but never saplings. Synthesis and applications.In this study, we show that simple rules can be found for managing invasive plants with complex life cycles and high dispersal rates when population models are combined with decision theory. In the case of our mesquite population, focussing effort on controlling adults is not always the most cost-effective way to meet our management objective.

Intrinsic kinetics of titania photocatalysis : simplified models for their investigation

Even though titanium dioxide photocatalysis has been promoted as a leading green technology for water purification, many issues have hindered its application on a large commercial scale. For the materials scientist the main issues have centred the synthesis of more efficient materials and the investigation of degradation mechanisms; whereas for the engineers the main issues have been the development of appropriate models and the evaluation of intrinsic kinetics parameters that allow the scale up or re-design of efficient large-scale photocatalytic reactors. In order to obtain intrinsic kinetics parameters the reaction must be analysed and modelled considering the influence of the radiation field, pollutant concentrations and fluid dynamics. In this way, the obtained kinetic parameters are independent of the reactor size and configuration and can be subsequently used for scale-up purposes or for the development of entirely new reactor designs. This work investigates the intrinsic kinetics of phenol degradation over titania film due to the practicality of a fixed film configuration over a slurry. A flat plate reactor was designed in order to be able to control reaction parameters that include the UV irradiance, flow rates, pollutant concentration and temperature. Particular attention was paid to the investigation of the radiation field over the reactive surface and to the issue of mass transfer limited reactions. The ability of different emission models to describe the radiation field was investigated and compared to actinometric measurements. The RAD-LSI model was found to give the best predictions over the conditions tested. Mass transfer issues often limit fixed film reactors. The influence of this phenomenon was investigated with specifically planned sets of benzoic acid experiments and with the adoption of the stagnant film model. The phenol mass transfer coefficient in the system was calculated to be km,phenol=8.5815x10-7Re0.65(ms-1). The data obtained from a wide range of experimental conditions, together with an appropriate model of the system, has enabled determination of intrinsic kinetic parameters. The experiments were performed in four different irradiation levels (70.7, 57.9, 37.1 and 20.4 W m-2) and combined with three different initial phenol concentrations (20, 40 and 80 ppm) to give a wide range of final pollutant conversions (from 22% to 85%). The simple model adopted was able to fit the wide range of conditions with only four kinetic parameters; two reaction rate constants (one for phenol and one for the family of intermediates) and their corresponding adsorption constants. The intrinsic kinetic parameters values were defined as kph = 0.5226 mmol m-1 s-1 W-1, kI = 0.120 mmol m-1 s-1 W-1, Kph = 8.5 x 10-4 m3 mmol-1 and KI = 2.2 x 10-3 m3 mmol-1. The flat plate reactor allowed the investigation of the reaction under two different light configurations; liquid and substrate side illumination. The latter of particular interest for real world applications where light absorption due to turbidity and pollutants contained in the water stream to be treated could represent a significant issue. The two light configurations allowed the investigation of the effects of film thickness and the determination of the catalyst optimal thickness. The experimental investigation confirmed the predictions of a porous medium model developed to investigate the influence of diffusion, advection and photocatalytic phenomena inside the porous titania film, with the optimal thickness value individuated at 5 ìm. The model used the intrinsic kinetic parameters obtained from the flat plate reactor to predict the influence of thickness and transport phenomena on the final observed phenol conversion without using any correction factor; the excellent match between predictions and experimental results provided further proof of the quality of the parameters obtained with the proposed method.