Validation of the MEASURE automobile emissions model : a statistical analysis

The Mobile Emissions Assessment System for Urban and Regional Evaluation (MEASURE) model provides an external validation capability for hot stabilized option; the model is one of several new modal emissions models designed to predict hot stabilized emission rates for various motor vehicle groups as a function of the conditions under which the vehicles are operating. The validation of aggregate measurements, such as speed and acceleration profile, is performed on an independent data set using three statistical criteria. The MEASURE algorithms have proved to provide significant improvements in both average emission estimates and explanatory power over some earlier models for pollutants across almost every operating cycle tested.

Poisson, Poisson-gamma and zero-inflated regression models of motor vehicle crashes: balancing statistical fit and theory

There has been considerable research conducted over the last 20 years focused on predicting motor vehicle crashes on transportation facilities. The range of statistical models commonly applied includes binomial, Poisson, Poisson-gamma (or negative binomial), zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models (ZIP and ZINB), and multinomial probability models. Given the range of possible modeling approaches and the host of assumptions with each modeling approach, making an intelligent choice for modeling motor vehicle crash data is difficult. There is little discussion in the literature comparing different statistical modeling approaches, identifying which statistical models are most appropriate for modeling crash data, and providing a strong justification from basic crash principles. In the recent literature, it has been suggested that the motor vehicle crash process can successfully be modeled by assuming a dual-state data-generating process, which implies that entities (e.g., intersections, road segments, pedestrian crossings, etc.) exist in one of two states—perfectly safe and unsafe. As a result, the ZIP and ZINB are two models that have been applied to account for the preponderance of “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash count data. The objective of this study is to provide defensible guidance on how to appropriate model crash data. We first examine the motor vehicle crash process using theoretical principles and a basic understanding of the crash process. It is shown that the fundamental crash process follows a Bernoulli trial with unequal probability of independent events, also known as Poisson trials. We examine the evolution of statistical models as they apply to the motor vehicle crash process, and indicate how well they statistically approximate the crash process. We also present the theory behind dual-state process count models, and note why they have become popular for modeling crash data. A simulation experiment is then conducted to demonstrate how crash data give rise to “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash data. It is shown that the Poisson and other mixed probabilistic structures are approximations assumed for modeling the motor vehicle crash process. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that under certain (fairly common) circumstances excess zeros are observed—and that these circumstances arise from low exposure and/or inappropriate selection of time/space scales and not an underlying dual state process. In conclusion, carefully selecting the time/space scales for analysis, including an improved set of explanatory variables and/or unobserved heterogeneity effects in count regression models, or applying small-area statistical methods (observations with low exposure) represent the most defensible modeling approaches for datasets with a preponderance of zeros

Statistical and Econometric Methods for Transportation Data Analysis, 2nd edition

Now in its second edition, this book describes tools that are commonly used in transportation data analysis. The first part of the text provides statistical fundamentals while the second part presents continuous dependent variable models. With a focus on count and discrete dependent variable models, the third part features new chapters on mixed logit models, logistic regression, and ordered probability models. The last section provides additional coverage of Bayesian statistical modeling, including Bayesian inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Data sets are available online to use with the modeling techniques discussed.

Effect of surgical approach on bone vascularisation, fracture and soft tissue healing : comparison of less invasive to open approach

Over the past ten years, minimally invasive plate osteosynthesis (MIPO) for the fixation of long bone fractures has become a clinically accepted method with good outcomes, when compared to the conventional open surgical approach (open reduction internal fixation, ORIF). However, while MIPO offers some advantages over ORIF, it also has some significant drawbacks, such as a more demanding surgical technique and increased radiation exposure. No clinical or experimental study to date has shown a difference between the healing outcomes in fractures treated with the two surgical approaches. Therefore, a novel, standardised severe trauma model in sheep has been developed and validated in this project to examine the effect of the two surgical approaches on soft tissue and fracture healing. Twenty four sheep were subjected to severe soft tissue damage and a complex distal femur fracture. The fractures were initially stabilised with an external fixator. After five days of soft tissue recovery, internal fixation with a plate was applied, randomised to either MIPO or ORIF. Within the first fourteen days, the soft tissue damage was monitored locally with a compartment pressure sensor and systemically by blood tests. The fracture progress was assessed fortnightly by x-rays. The sheep were sacrificed in two groups after four and eight weeks, and CT scans and mechanical testing performed. Soft tissue monitoring showed significantly higher postoperative Creatine Kinase and Lactate Dehydrogenase values in the ORIF group compared to MIPO. After four weeks, the torsional stiffness was significantly higher in the MIPO group (p=0.018) compared to the ORIF group. The torsional strength also showed increased values for the MIPO technique (p=0.11). The measured total mineralised callus volumes were slightly higher in the ORIF group. However, a newly developed morphological callus bridging score showed significantly higher values for the MIPO technique (p=0.007), with a high correlation to the mechanical properties (R2=0.79). After eight weeks, the same trends continued, but without statistical significance. In summary, this clinically relevant study, using the newly developed severe trauma model in sheep, clearly demonstrates that the minimally invasive technique minimises additional soft tissue damage and improves fracture healing in the early stage compared to the open surgical approach method.

Beyond statistical procedures for predictive modelling: Data mining algorithms and support for university research at QUT

In a seminal data mining article, Leo Breiman [1] argued that to develop effective predictive classification and regression models, we need to move away from the sole dependency on statistical algorithms and embrace a wider toolkit of modeling algorithms that include data mining procedures. Nevertheless, many researchers still rely solely on statistical procedures when undertaking data modeling tasks; the sole reliance on these procedures has lead to the development of irrelevant theory and questionable research conclusions ([1], p.199). We will outline initiatives that the HPC & Research Support group is undertaking to engage researchers with data mining tools and techniques; including a new range of seminars, workshops, and one-on-one consultations covering data mining algorithms, the relationship between data mining and the research cycle, and limitations and problems with these new algorithms. Organisational limitations and restrictions to these initiatives are also discussed.

Critical success factors of project management for Brunei construction projects : improving project performance

The problem of delays in the construction industry is a global phenomenon and the construction industry in Brunei Darussalam is no exception. The goal of all parties involved in construction projects – owners, contractors, engineers and consultants in either the public or private sector is to successfully complete the project on schedule, within planned budget, with the highest quality and in the safest manner. Construction projects are frequently influenced by either success factors that help project parties reach their goal as planned, or delay factors that stifle or postpone project completion. The purpose of this research is to identify success and delay factors which can help project parties reach their intended goals with greater efficiency. This research extracted seven of the most important success factors according to the literature and seven of the most important delay factors identified by project parties, and then examined correlations between them to determine which were the most influential in preventing project delays. This research uses a comprehensive literature review to design and conduct a survey to investigate success and delay factors and then obtain a consensus of expert opinion using the Delphi methodology to rank the most needed critical success factors for Brunei construction projects. A specific survey was distributed to owners, contractors and engineers to examine the most critical delay factors. A general survey was distributed to examine the correlation between the identified delay factors and the seven most important critical success factors selected. A consensus of expert opinion using the Delphi methodology was used to rank the most needed critical success factors for Brunei building construction. Data was collected and evaluated by statistical methods to identify the most significant causes of delay and to measure the strength and direction of the relationship between critical success factors and delay factors in order to examine project parties’ evaluation of projects’ critical success and delay factors, and to evaluate the influence of critical success factors on critical delay factors. A relative importance index has been used to determine the relative importance of the various causes of delays. A one and two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) has been used to examine how the group or groups evaluated the influence of the critical success factors in avoiding or preventing each of the delay factors, and which success factors were perceived as most influential in avoiding or preventing critical delay factors. Finally the Delphi method, using consensus from an expert panel, was employed to identify the seven most critical success factors used to avoid the delay factors, and thereby improve project performance.

A statistical framework for natural feature representation

This paper presents a robust stochastic framework for the incorporation of visual observations into conventional estimation, data fusion, navigation and control algorithms. The representation combines Isomap, a non-linear dimensionality reduction algorithm, with expectation maximization, a statistical learning scheme. The joint probability distribution of this representation is computed offline based on existing training data. The training phase of the algorithm results in a nonlinear and non-Gaussian likelihood model of natural features conditioned on the underlying visual states. This generative model can be used online to instantiate likelihoods corresponding to observed visual features in real-time. The instantiated likelihoods are expressed as a Gaussian mixture model and are conveniently integrated within existing non-linear filtering algorithms. Example applications based on real visual data from heterogenous, unstructured environments demonstrate the versatility of the generative models.

Computed success rates of various carrier phase integer estimation solutions and their comparison with statistical success rates

The success rate of carrier phase ambiguity resolution (AR) is the probability that the ambiguities are successfully fixed to their correct integer values. In existing works, an exact success rate formula for integer bootstrapping estimator has been used as a sharp lower bound for the integer least squares (ILS) success rate. Rigorous computation of success rate for the more general ILS solutions has been considered difficult, because of complexity of the ILS ambiguity pull-in region and computational load of the integration of the multivariate probability density function. Contributions of this work are twofold. First, the pull-in region mathematically expressed as the vertices of a polyhedron is represented by a multi-dimensional grid, at which the cumulative probability can be integrated with the multivariate normal cumulative density function (mvncdf) available in Matlab. The bivariate case is studied where the pull-region is usually defined as a hexagon and the probability is easily obtained using mvncdf at all the grid points within the convex polygon. Second, the paper compares the computed integer rounding and integer bootstrapping success rates, lower and upper bounds of the ILS success rates to the actual ILS AR success rates obtained from a 24 h GPS data set for a 21 km baseline. The results demonstrate that the upper bound probability of the ILS AR probability given in the existing literatures agrees with the actual ILS success rate well, although the success rate computed with integer bootstrapping method is a quite sharp approximation to the actual ILS success rate. The results also show that variations or uncertainty of the unit–weight variance estimates from epoch to epoch will affect the computed success rates from different methods significantly, thus deserving more attentions in order to obtain useful success probability predictions.

Strength improvement methods for back to back Litesteel beams

LiteSteel Beam (LSB) is a new cold-formed steel beam produced by OneSteel Australian Tube Mills (OATM). The new beam is effectively a channel section with two rectangular hollow flanges and a slender web, and is manufactured using patented dual electric resistance welding and automated roll-forming technologies. OATM is promoting the use of LSBs as flexural members in residential construction. When LSBs are used as back to back built-up sections, they are likely to improve their moment capacity. However, the research project conducted on the flexural behaviour of back to back built-up LSBs showed that the detrimental effects of lateral distortional buckling in single LSB members appear to remain with back to back built-up LSB members. The ultimate moment capacity of back to back LSB member is also affected by lateral distortional buckling failure. Therefore an investigation was conducted with an aim to develop suitable strength improvement methods, which are likely to mitigate lateral distortional buckling effects and hence improve the flexural strengths of back to back LSB members. This paper presents the details of this investigation, the results and recommendations for the most suitable and cost-effective method, which significantly improves the moment capacities of back to back LSB members.

Shear strength of LiteSteel beams with web openings

This paper presents the details of numerical studies on the shear strength of a recently devel-oped, cold-formed steel channel beam known as LiteSteel Beam (LSB) with web openings. The LSB sections are commonly used as floor joists and bearers in residential, industrial and commercial buildings. In these ap-plications they often include web openings for the purpose of locating services. This has raised concerns over the shear capacity of LSB floor joists and bearers. Therefore experimental and numerical studies were under-taken to investigate the shear behavior and strength of LSBs with web openings. In this research, finite ele-ment models of LSBs with web openings in shear were developed to simulate the shear behavior of LSBs. It was found that currently available design equations are conservative or unconservative for the shear design of LSBs with web openings. Improved design equations have been proposed for the shear capacity of LSBs with web openings based on both experimental and numerical study results.

Shear strength and design of LiteSteel beams

This paper presents the details of a parametric study based on finite element analyses (FEA) and development of design rules for the shear strength of a recently developed, cold-formed steel channel beam known as LiteSteel Beam (LSB). The LSB sections are commonly used as flexural members in residential, in-dustrial and commercial buildings. In order to ensure safe and efficient designs of LSBs, many research stu-dies have been undertaken on the flexural behaviour of LSBs. However, no research has been undertaken on the shear behaviour of LSBs. Therefore a detailed investigation including both numerical and experimental studies was undertaken to investigate the shear behaviour of LSBs. Both the experimental and FEA parametric study results showed that the current design rules in cold-formed steel design codes are very conservative for the shear design of LSBs. New shear strength equations for LSBs were proposed based on the experimental and FEA parametric study results.

Three-dimensional printing of hierarchical and tough mesoporous bioactive glass scaffolds with a controllable pore architecture, excellent mechanical strength and mineralization ability

New-generation biomaterials for bone regenerations should be highly bioactive, resorbable and mechanically strong. Mesoporous bioactive glass (MBG), as a novel bioactive material, has been used for the study of bone regeneration due to its excellent bioactivity, degradation and drug-delivery ability; however, how to construct a 3D MBG scaffold (including other bioactive inorganic scaffolds) for bone regeneration still maintains a significant challenge due to its/their inherit brittleness and low strength. In this brief communication, we reported a new facile method to prepare hierarchical and multifunctional MBG scaffolds with controllable pore architecture, excellent mechanical strength and mineralization ability for bone regeneration application by a modified 3D-printing technique using polyvinylalcohol (PVA), as a binder. The method provides a new way to solve the commonly existing issues for inorganic scaffold materials, for example, uncontrollable pore architecture, low strength, high brittleness and the requirement for the second sintering at high temperature. The obtained 3D-printing MBG scaffolds possess a high mechanical strength which is about 200 times for that of traditional polyurethane foam template-resulted MBG scaffolds. They have highly controllable pore architecture, excellent apatite-mineralization ability and sustained drug-delivery property. Our study indicates that the 3D-printed MBG scaffolds may be an excellent candidate for bone regeneration.

Inspiration and strength

Thoughts on Aborignal women's leadership.

Vibration of L-shaped plates under a deterministic force or moment excitation : a case of statistical energy analysis application

Analytical and closed form solutions are presented in this paper for the vibration response of an L-shaped plate under a point force or a moment excitation. Inter-relationships between wave components of the source and the receiving plates are clearly defined. Explicit expressions are given for the quadratic quantities such as input power, energy flow and kinetic energy distributions of the L-shaped plate. Applications of statistical energy analysis (SEA) formulation in the prediction of the vibration response of finite coupled plate structures under a single deterministic forcing are examined and quantified. It is found that the SEA method can be employed to predict the frequency averaged vibration response and energy flow of coupled plate structures under a deterministic force or moment excitation when the structural system satisfies the following conditions: (1) the coupling loss factors of the coupled subsystems are known; (2) the source location is more than a quarter of the plate bending wavelength away from the source plate edges in the point force excitation case, or is more than a quarter wavelength away from the pair of source plate edges perpendicular to the moment axis in the moment excitation case due to the directional characteristic of moment excitations. SEA overestimates the response of the L-shaped plate when the source location is less than a quarter bending wavelength away from the respective plate edges owing to wave coherence effect at the plate boundary