Reliability analysis with suspended items

Reliability analysis has several important engineering applications. Designers and operators of equipment are often interested in the probability of the equipment operating successfully to a given age - this probability is known as the equipment's reliability at that age. Reliability information is also important to those charged with maintaining an item of equipment, as it enables them to model and evaluate alternative maintenance policies for the equipment. In each case, information on failures and survivals of a typical sample of items is used to estimate the required probabilities as a function of the item's age, this process being one of many applications of the statistical techniques known as distribution fitting. In most engineering applications, the estimation procedure must deal with samples containing survivors (suspensions or censorings); this thesis focuses on several graphical estimation methods that are widely used for analysing such samples. Although these methods have been current for many years, they share a common shortcoming: none of them is continuously sensitive to changes in the ages of the suspensions, and we show that the resulting reliability estimates are therefore more pessimistic than necessary. We use a simple example to show that the existing graphical methods take no account of any service recorded by suspensions beyond their respective previous failures, and that this behaviour is inconsistent with one's intuitive expectations. In the course of this thesis, we demonstrate that the existing methods are only justified under restricted conditions. We present several improved methods and demonstrate that each of them overcomes the problem described above, while reducing to one of the existing methods where this is justified. Each of the improved methods thus provides a realistic set of reliability estimates for general (unrestricted) censored samples. Several related variations on these improved methods are also presented and justified. - i

Vibrational spectroscopic studies of wool

Fourier transfonn (FT) Raman, Raman microspectroscopy and Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy have been used for the structural analysis and characterisation of untreated and chemically treated wool fibres. For FT -Raman spectroscopy novel methods of sample presentation have been developed and optimised for the analysis of wool. No significant fluorescence was observed and the spectra could be obtained routinely. The stability of wool keratin to the laser source was investigated and the visual and spectroscopic signs of sample damage were established. Wool keratin was found to be extremely robust with no signs of sample degradation observed for laser powers of up to 600 m W and for exposure times of up to seven and half hours. Due to improvements in band resolution and signal-to-noise ratio, several previously unobserved spectral features have become apparent. The assignment of the Raman active vibrational modes of wool have been reviewed and updated to include these features. The infrared spectroscopic techniques of attenuated total reflectance (ATR) and photoacoustic (P A) have been used to examine shrinkproofed and mothproofed wool samples. Shrinkproofing is an oxidative chemical treatment used to selectively modifY the surface of a wool fibre. Mothproofing is a chemical treatment applied to wool for the prevention of insect attack. The ability of PAS and A TR to vary the penetration depth by varying certain instrumental parameters was used to obtain spectra of the near surface regions of these chemically treated samples. These spectra were compared with those taken with a greater penetration depth, which therefore represent more of the bulk wool sample. The PA and ATR spectra demonstrated that oxidation was restricted to the near-surface layer of wool. Extensive curve fitting of ATR spectra of untreated wool indicated that cuticle was composed of a mixed protein conformation, but was predominately that of an a.-helix. The cortex was proposed to be a mixture of both a.helical and ~-pleated sheet protein conformations. These findings were supported by PAS depth profiling results. Raman microspectroscopy was used in an extensive investigation of the molecular structure of the wool fibre. This included determining the orientation of certain functional groups within the wool fibre and the symmetry of particular vibrations. The orientation ofbonds within the wool fibre was investigated by orientating the wool fibre axis parallel and then perpendicular to the plane of polarisation of the electric vector of the incident radiation. It was experimentally determined that the majority of C=O and N-H bonds of the peptide bond of wool lie parallel to the fibre axis. Additionally, a number of the important vibrations associated with the a-helix were also found to lie parallel to the fibre axis. Further investigation into the molecular structure of wool involved determining what effect stretching the wool fibre had on bond orientation. Raman spectra of stretched and unstretched wool fibres indicated that extension altered the orientation ofthe aromatic rings, the CH2 and CH3 groups of the amino acids. Curve fitting results revealed that extension resulted in significant destruction of the a-helix structure a substantial increase in the P-pleated sheet structure. Finally, depolarisation ratios were calculated for Raman spectra. The vibrations associated with the aromatic rings of amino acids had very low ratios which indicated that the vibrations were highly symmetrical.

International rigid contact lens prescribing

Rigid lenses have been fitted less since the introduction of soft lenses nearly 40 years ago. Data that we have gathered from annual contact lens fitting surveys conducted in Australia, Canada, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, the UK and the USA between 2000 and 2008 facilitate an accurate characterization of the pattern of the decline of rigid lens fitting during the first decade of this century. There is a trend for rigid lenses to be utilized primarily for refitting those patients who are already successful rigid lens wearers—most typically older females being refit with higher Dk materials. Rigid lenses are generally fitted on a full-time basis (four or more days of wear per week) without a planned replacement schedule. Orthokeratology is especially popular in the Netherlands, but is seldom prescribed in the other countries surveyed.

Conifer defence against insects: microarray gene expression profiling of Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis) induced by mechanical wounding or feeding by spruce budworms (Choristoneura occidentalis) or white pine weevils (Pissodes strobi) reveals large

Conifers are resistant to attack from a large number of potential herbivores or pathogens. Previous molecular and biochemical characterization of selected conifer defence systems support a model of multigenic, constitutive and induced defences that act on invading insects via physical, chemical, biochemical or ecological (multitrophic) mechanisms. However, the genomic foundation of the complex defence and resistance mechanisms of conifers is largely unknown. As part of a genomics strategy to characterize inducible defences and possible resistance mechanisms of conifers against insect herbivory, we developed a cDNA microarray building upon a new spruce (Picea spp.) expressed sequence tag resource. This first-generation spruce cDNA microarray contains 9720 cDNA elements representing c. 5500 unique genes. We used this array to monitor gene expression in Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis) bark in response to herbivory by white pine weevils (Pissodes strobi, Curculionidae) or wounding, and in young shoot tips in response to western spruce budworm (Choristoneura occidentalis, Lepidopterae) feeding. Weevils are stem-boring insects that feed on phloem, while budworms are foliage feeding larvae that consume needles and young shoot tips. Both insect species and wounding treatment caused substantial changes of the host plant transcriptome detected in each case by differential gene expression of several thousand array elements at 1 or 2 d after the onset of treatment. Overall, there was considerable overlap among differentially expressed gene sets from these three stress treatments. Functional classification of the induced transcripts revealed genes with roles in general plant defence, octadecanoid and ethylene signalling, transport, secondary metabolism, and transcriptional regulation. Several genes involved in primary metabolic processes such as photosynthesis were down-regulated upon insect feeding or wounding, fitting with the concept of dynamic resource allocation in plant defence. Refined expression analysis using gene-specific primers and real-time PCR for selected transcripts was in agreement with microarray results for most genes tested. This study provides the first large-scale survey of insect-induced defence transcripts in a gymnosperm and provides a platform for functional investigation of plant-insect interactions in spruce. Induction of spruce genes of octadecanoid and ethylene signalling, terpenoid biosynthesis, and phenolic secondary metabolism are discussed in more detail.

Central and peripheral oxygen transmissibility thresholds to avoid corneal swelling during open eye soft contact lens wear

This study was designed to derive central and peripheral oxygen transmissibility (Dk/t) thresholds for soft contact lenses to avoid hypoxia-induced corneal swelling (increased corneal thickness) during open eye wear. Central and peripheral corneal thicknesses were measured in a masked and randomized fashion for the left eye of each of seven subjects before and after 3 h of afternoon wear of five conventional hydrogel and silicone hydrogel contact lens types offering a range of Dk/t from 2.4 units to 115.3 units. Curve fitting for plots of change in corneal thickness versus central and peripheral Dk/t found threshold values of 19.8 and 32.6 units to avoid corneal swelling during open eye contact lens wear for a typical wearer. Although some conventional hydrogel soft lenses are able to achieve this criterion for either central or peripheral lens areas (depending on lens power), in general, no conventional hydrogel soft lenses meet both the central and peripheral thresholds. Silicone hydrogel contact lenses typically meet both the central and peripheral thresholds and use of these lenses therefore avoids swelling in all regions of the cornea. ' 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Biomed Mater Res Part B: Appl Biomater 92B: 361–365, 2010

Global trends in prescribing contact lenses for extended wear

Extended wear has long been the ‘holy grail’ of contact lenses by virtue of the increased convenience and freedom of lifestyle which they accord; however, this modality enjoyed only limited market success during the last quarter of the 20th century. The introduction of silicone hydrogel materials into the market at the beginning of this century heralded the promise of successful extended wear due to the superior oxygen performance of this lens type. To assess patterns of contact lens fitting, including extended wear, over the past decade, up to 1000 survey forms were sent to contact lens fitters in Australia, Canada, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, the UK and the USA each year between 2000 and 2009. Practitioners were asked to record data relating to the first 10 contact lens fits or refits performed after receiving the survey form. Analysis of returned forms revealed that, averaged over this period, 9% of all soft lenses prescribed were for extended wear, with national figures ranging from 2% in Japan to 17% in Norway. The trend over the past decade has been for an increase from about 5% of all soft lens fits in 2000 to a peak of between 9 and 12% between 2002 and 2007, followed by a decline to around 7% in 2009. A person receiving extended wear lenses is likely to be an older female who is being refitted with silicone hydrogel lenses for full-time wear. Although extended wear has yet again failed to fulfil the promise of being the dominant contact lens wearing modality, it is still a viable option for many people.

Daily disposable contact lens prescribing around the world

Daily disposable contact lenses were introduced into the market 16 years ago. Data that we have gathered from annual contact lens fitting surveys conducted in Australia, Canada, Japan, The Netherlands, Norway, the UK and the USA between 2000 and 2008 indicates an overall increase in daily disposable lens fitting during this period. Daily disposable lenses are especially popular in Japan, Norway and the UK. There is a trend for these lenses to be fitted on a part-time basis. Males are over-represented in daily disposable lens fitting—a trend that is especially evident in Canada. Daily disposable lens wearers are about two years younger than wearers of reusable lenses in Japan and The Netherlands. The convenience and health benefits of daily disposable lenses are expected to fuel continued growth in this sector.

Demographics of international contact lens prescribing

Knowledge of differences in the demographics of contact lens prescribing between nations, and changes over time, can assist (a) the contact lens industry in developing and promoting various product types in different world regions, and (b) practitioners in understanding their prescribing habits in an international context. Data that we have gathered from annual contact lens fitting surveys conducted in Australia, Canada, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, the UK and the USA between 2000 and 2008 reveal an ageing demographic, with Japan being the most youthful. The majority of fits are to females, with statistically significant differences between nations, ranging from 62 per cent of fits in Norway to 68 per cent in Japan. The small overall decline in the proportion of new fits, and commensurate increase in refits, over the survey periodmay indicate a growing rate of conversion of lens wearers to more advanced lens types, such as silicone hydrogels. � 2009 British Contact Lens Association.

Soil carbon saturation: Linking concept and measurable carbon pools

The soil C saturation concept suggests a limit to whole soil organic carbon (SOC) accumulation determined by inherent physicochemical characteristics of four soil C pools: unprotected, physically protected, chemically protected, and biochemically protected. Previous attempts to quantify soil C sequestration capacity have focused primarily on silt and clay protection and largely ignored the effects of soil structural protection and biochemical protection. We assessed two contrasting models of SOC accumulation, one with no saturation limit (i.e., linear first-order model) and one with an explicit soil C saturation limit (i.e., C saturation model). We isolated soil fractions corresponding to the C pools (i.e., free particulate organic matter POM], microaggregate-associated C, silt- and clay-associated C, and non-hydrolyzable C) from eight long-term agroecosystern experiments across the United States and Canada. Due to the composite nature of the physically protected C pool, we firactioned it into mineral- vs. POM-associated C. Within each site, the number of fractions fitting the C saturation model was directly related to maximum SOC content, suggesting that a broad range in SOC content is necessary to evaluate fraction C saturation. The two sites with the greatest SOC range showed C saturation behavior in the chemically, biochemically, and some mineral-associated fractions of the physically protected pool. The unprotected pool and the aggregate-protected POM showed linear, nonsaturating behavior. Evidence of C saturation of chemically and biochemically protected SOC pools was observed at sites far from their theoretical C saturation level, while saturation of aggregate-protected fractions occurred in soils closer to their C saturation level.

Does the acid hydrolysis-incubation method measure meaningful soil organic carbon pools?

The literature was reviewed and analyzed to determine the feasibility of using a combination of acid hydrolysis and CO2-C release during long-term incubation to determine soil organic carbon (SOC) pool sizes and mean residence times (MRTs). Analysis of 1100 data points showed the SOC remaining after hydrolysis with 6 M HCI ranged from 30 to 80% of the total SOC depending on soil type, depth, texture, and management. Nonhydrolyzable carbon (NHC) in conventional till soils represented 48% of SOC; no-till averaged 56%, forest 55%, and grassland 56%. Carbon dates showed an average of 1200 yr greater MRT for the NHC fraction than total SOC. Longterm incubation, involving measurement of CO2 evolution and curve fitting, measured active and slow pools. Active-pool C comprised 2 to 8% of the SOC with MRTs of days to months; the slow pool comprised 45 to 65% of the SOC and had MRTs of 10 to 80 yr. Comparison of field C-14 and (13) C data with hydrolysis-incubation data showed a high correlation between independent techniques across soil types and experiments. There were large differences in MRTs depending on the length of the experiment. Insertion of hydrolysis-incubation derived estimates of active (C-a), slow (C-s), and resistant Pools (C-r) into the DAYCENT model provided estimates of daily field CO2 evolution rates. These were well correlated with field CO2 measurements. Although not without some interpretation problems, acid hydrolysis-laboratory incubation is useful for determining SOC pools and fluxes especially when used in combination with associated measurements.

Modeling crash types: New insights into the effects of covariates on crashes at rural intersections

Many studies focused on the development of crash prediction models have resulted in aggregate crash prediction models to quantify the safety effects of geometric, traffic, and environmental factors on the expected number of total, fatal, injury, and/or property damage crashes at specific locations. Crash prediction models focused on predicting different crash types, however, have rarely been developed. Crash type models are useful for at least three reasons. The first is motivated by the need to identify sites that are high risk with respect to specific crash types but that may not be revealed through crash totals. Second, countermeasures are likely to affect only a subset of all crashes—usually called target crashes—and so examination of crash types will lead to improved ability to identify effective countermeasures. Finally, there is a priori reason to believe that different crash types (e.g., rear-end, angle, etc.) are associated with road geometry, the environment, and traffic variables in different ways and as a result justify the estimation of individual predictive models. The objectives of this paper are to (1) demonstrate that different crash types are associated to predictor variables in different ways (as theorized) and (2) show that estimation of crash type models may lead to greater insights regarding crash occurrence and countermeasure effectiveness. This paper first describes the estimation results of crash prediction models for angle, head-on, rear-end, sideswipe (same direction and opposite direction), and pedestrian-involved crash types. Serving as a basis for comparison, a crash prediction model is estimated for total crashes. Based on 837 motor vehicle crashes collected on two-lane rural intersections in the state of Georgia, six prediction models are estimated resulting in two Poisson (P) models and four NB (NB) models. The analysis reveals that factors such as the annual average daily traffic, the presence of turning lanes, and the number of driveways have a positive association with each type of crash, whereas median widths and the presence of lighting are negatively associated. For the best fitting models covariates are related to crash types in different ways, suggesting that crash types are associated with different precrash conditions and that modeling total crash frequency may not be helpful for identifying specific countermeasures.

Alleviating ‘overfitting’ via genetically-regularised neural network

A hybrid genetic algorithm/scaled conjugate gradient regularisation method is designed to alleviate ANN `over-fitting'. In application to day-ahead load forecasting, the proposed algorithm performs better than early-stopping and Bayesian regularisation, showing promising initial results.