269 resultados para Parametric VaR (Value-at-Risk)
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Aims The aim of the study was to evaluate the significance of total bilirubin, aspartate transaminase (AST), alanine transaminase and gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) for predicting outcome in sepsis-associated cholestasis. Methods: A retrospective cohort review of the hospital records was performed in 181 neonates admitted to the Neonatal Care Unit. A comparison was performed between subjects with low and high liver values based on cut-off values from ROC analysis. We defined poor prognosis to be when a subject had prolonged cholestasis of more than 3.5 months, developed severe sepsis, septic shock or had a fatal outcome. Results: The majority of the subjects were male (56%), preterm (56%) and had early onset sepsis (73%). The poor prognosis group had lower initial values of GGT compared with the good prognosis group (P = 0.003). Serum GGT (cut-off value of 85.5 U/L) and AST (cut-off value of 51 U/L) showed significant correlation with the outcome following multivariate analysis. The odds ratio (OR) of low GGT and high AST were OR 4.3 (95% CI:1.6 to11.8) and OR 2.9 (95% CI:1.1 to 8), respectively, for poor prognosis. In subjects with normal AST values, those with low GGT value had relative risk of 2.52 (95% CI:1.4 to 3.5) for poorer prognosis compared with those with normal or high GGT. Conclusion: Serum GGT and AST values can be used to predict the prognosis of patients with sepsis-associated cholestasis
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Hamstring strain injuries are the predominant injury in many sports, costing athletes and clubs a significant financial and performance burden. Therefore the ability to identify and intervene with individuals who are considered at a high risk of injury is important. One measure which has grown in popularity as an outcome variable following hamstring intervention/prevention studies and rehabilitation is the angle of peak knee flexor torque. This current opinion article will firstly introduce the measure and the processes behind it. Secondly, this article will summarise how the angle of peak knee flexor torque has been suggested to measure hamstring strain injury risk. Finally various limitations will be presented and outlined as to how they may influence the measure. These include the lack of muscle specificity, the common concentric contraction mode of assessment, reliability of the measure, various neural contributions (such as rate of force development and neuromuscular inhibition) as well as the lack of prospective data showing any predictive value in the measure.
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Objective To investigate differences in genetic risk factors for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in Han Chinese as compared with Europeans. Methods A genome-wide association study was conducted in China with 952 patients and 943 controls, and 32 variants were followed up in 2,132 patients and 2,553 controls. A transpopulation meta-analysis with results from a large European RA study was also performed to compare the genetic architecture across the 2 ethnic remote populations. Results Three non-major histocompatibility complex (non-MHC) loci were identified at the genome-wide significance level, the effect sizes of which were larger in anti-citrullinated protein antibody (ACPA)-positive patients than in ACPA-negative patients. These included 2 novel variants, rs12617656, located in an intron of DPP4 (odds ratio [OR] 1.56, P = 1.6 × 10 -21), and rs12379034, located in the coding region of CDK5RAP2 (OR 1.49, P = 1.1 × 10-16), as well as a variant at the known CCR6 locus, rs1854853 (OR 0.71, P = 6.5 × 10-15). The analysis of ACPA-positive patients versus ACPA-negative patients revealed that rs12617656 at the DPP4 locus showed a strong interaction effect with ACPAs (P = 5.3 × 10-18), and such an interaction was also observed for rs7748270 at the MHC locus (P = 5.9 × 10-8). The transpopulation meta-analysis showed genome-wide overlap and enrichment in association signals across the 2 populations, as confirmed by prediction analysis. Conclusion This study has expanded the list of alleles that confer risk of RA, provided new insight into the pathogenesis of RA, and added empirical evidence to the emerging polygenic nature of complex trait variation driven by common genetic variants. Copyright © 2014 by the American College of Rheumatology.
A review of efficiency measures for REITs and their specific application for Malaysian Islamic REITs
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Purpose This paper aims to present a conceptual model on the efficiency of Islamic Real Estate Trusts (I-REITs) available in Malaysia. The key difference between the Islamic and their conventional investment vehicle part is mainly its own Shariah framework. Design/methodology/approach The paper reviews and synthesises the relevant literature on the performance analysis and efficiency measurements of Real Estate Investment Trusts. The paper then develops and proposes a conceptual model to measure the efficiency of Malaysian Islamic REITs. Findings The paper identifies and examines the appropriate methods and instruments to measure the efficiency in relation to the risk and profitability of Islamic REITs. The efficiency measure is important for the fund managers in order to maximise the shareholders’ return in an investment of property portfolio as well as proposing the best way to allocate resources efficiently. Research limitation/implications This is a preliminary review of current work that identifies the issues that will be addressed in future empirical research. The authors will be undertaking this future empirical research in measuring the efficiency of Malaysian REITs particularly the Islamic REITs using the non-parametric approach of Data Envelopment Analysis. Originality/value To date, there has been very limited research on the efficiency measurement of Islamic REITs. The current analysis of REIT has been focused on traditional non-Islamic funds. This paper will review and discuss the current literature on efficiency measurement to determine the most appropriate approaches and methodologies for future application in performance analysis of efficiency measure for Malaysian Islamic REITs.
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Objective National guidelines for management of intermediate risk patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome, in whom AMI has been excluded, advocate provocative testing to final risk stratify these patients into low risk (negative testing) or high risk (positive testing suggestive of unstable angina). Adults less than 40 years have a low pretest probability of acute coronary syndrome. The utility of exercise stress testing in young adults with chest pain suspected of acute coronary syndrome who have National Heart Foundation intermediate risk features was evaluated Methods A retrospective analysis of exercise stress testing performed on patients less than 40 years was evaluated. Patients were enrolled on a chest pain pathway and had negative serial ECGs and cardiac biomarkers before exercise stress testing to rule-out acute coronary syndrome. Chart review was completed on patients with positive stress tests. Results The 3987 patients with suspected intermediate risk acute coronary syndrome underwent exercise stress testing. One thousand and twenty-seven (25.8%) were aged less than 40 years (age 33.3 ± 4.8 years). Four of these 1027 patients had a positive exercise stress test (0.4% incidence of positive exercise stress testing). Of those, three patients had subsequent non-invasive functional testing that yielded a negative result. One patient declined further investigations. Assuming this was a true positive exercise stress test, the incidence of true positive exercise stress testing would have been 0.097% (95% confidence interval: 0.079–0.115%) (one of 1027 patients). Conclusions Routine exercise stress testing has limited value in the risk stratification of adults less than 40 years with suspected intermediate risk of acute coronary syndrome
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Public private partnerships (PPPs) have been adopted widely to provide public facilities and services. According to the PPP agreement, PPP projects would be transferred to the public sector. However, problems related to the subsequent management of ongoing PPP projects have not been studied thoroughly. Residual value risk (RVR) can occur if the public sector cannot obtain the project in the desired conditions as required in the agreement when a project is being transferred. RVR has been identified as an important risk in PPPs and has greatly influenced the outputs of the projects. In order to further observe the change of residual value (RV) during the process of PPP projects and to reveal the internal mechanism for reducing the RVR, a comparative case study of two PPP projects in mainland China and Hong Kong was conducted. Based on the case study, different factors leading to RVR and a series of key risk indicators (KRIs) were identified. The comparison demonstrates that RVR is an important risk that could influence the success of PPP projects. The cumulative effects during the concession period can play significant roles in the occurrence of RVR. Additionally, the cumulative effects in different cases can make the RVR different because of different stakeholders’ efforts on the projects and ways to treat RVR. Finally, alternatives for the public sector to treat RVR were proposed. The findings of this research can reduce RVR and improve the performance of PPP projects.
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Background and purpose: The purpose of this study is to examine the feasibility of developing plasma predictive value biomarkers of cerebral ischemic stroke before imaging evidence is acquired. Methods: Blood samples were obtained from 198 patients who attended our neurology department as emergencies - with symptoms of vertigo, numbness, limb weakness, etc. - within 4.5 h of symptom onset, and before imaging evidence was obtained and medical treatment. After the final diagnosis was made by MRI/DWI/MRA or CTA in the following 24-72 h, the above cases were divided into two groups: stroke group and non-stroke group according to the imaging results. The levels of baseline plasma antithrombin III (AT-III), thrombin-antithrombin III (TAT), fibrinogen, D-dimer and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) in the two groups were assayed. Results: The level of the baseline AT-III in the stroke group was 118.07 ± 26.22%, which was lower than that of the non-stroke group (283.83 ± 38.39%). The levels of TAT, fibrinogen, hsCRP were 7.24 ± 2.28 μg/L, 5.49 ± 0.98 g/L, and 2.17 ± 1.07 mg/L, respectively, which were higher than those of the non-stroke group (2.53 ± 1.23 μg/L, 3.35 ± 0.50 g/L, 1.82 ± 0.67 mg/L). All the P-values were less than 0.001. The D-dimer level was 322.57 ± 60.34 μg/L, which was slightly higher than that of the non-stroke group (305.76 ± 49.52 μg/L), but the P-value was 0.667. The sensitivities of AT-III, TAT, fibrinogen, D-dimer and hsCRP for predicting ischemic stroke tendency were 97.37%, 96.05%, 3.29%, 7.89%, but the specificity was 93.62%, 82.61%, 100% and 100%, respectively, and all the P-values were less than 0.001. High levels of D-dimer and hsCRP were mainly seen in the few cases with severe large-vessel infarction. Conclusions: Clinical manifestations of acute focal neurological deficits were associated with plasma AT-III and fibrinogen. These tests might help the risk assessment of acute cerebral ischemic stroke and/or TIA with infarction tendency in the superacute stage before positive imaging evidence is obtained.
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- Purpose Communication of risk management practices are a critical component of good corporate governance. Research to date has been of little benefit in informing regulators internationally. This paper seeks to contribute to the literature by investigating how listed Australian companies in a setting where disclosures are explicitly required by the ASX corporate governance framework, disclose risk management (RM) information in the corporate governance statements within annual reports. - Design/methodology/approach To address our study’s research questions and related hypotheses, we examine the top 300 ASX-listed companies by market capitalisation at 30 June 2010. For these firms, we identify, code and categorise RM disclosures made in the annual reports according to the disclosure categories specified in Australian Stock Exchange Corporate Governance Principles and Recommendations (ASX CGPR). The derived data is then examined using a comprehensive approach comprising thematic content analysis and regression analysis. - Findings The results indicate widespread divergence in disclosure practices and low conformance with the Principle 7 of the ASX CGPR. This result suggests that companies are not disclosing all ‘material business risks’ possibly due to ignorance at the board level, or due to the intentional withholding of sensitive information from financial statement users. The findings also show mixed results across the factors expected to influence disclosure behaviour. Notably, the presence of a risk committee (RC) (in particular, a standalone RC) and technology committee (TC) are found to be associated with improved levels of disclosure. we do not find evidence that company risk measures (as proxied by equity beta and the market-to-book ratio) are significantly associated with greater levels of RM disclosure. Also, contrary to common findings in the disclosure literature, factors such as board independence and expertise, audit committee independence, and the usage of a Big-4 auditor do not seem to impact the level of RM disclosure in the Australian context. - Research limitation/implications The study is limited by the sample and study period selection as the RM disclosures of only the largest (top 300) ASX firms are examined for the fiscal year 2010. Thus, the finding may not be generalisable to smaller firms, or earlier/later years. Also, the findings may have limited applicability in other jurisdictions with different regulatory environments. - Practical implications The study’s findings suggest that insufficient attention has been applied to RM disclosures by listed companies in Australia. These results suggest that the RM disclosures practices observed in the Australian setting may not be meeting the objectives of regulators and the needs of stakeholders. - Originality/value Despite the importance of risk management communication, it is unclear whether disclosures in annual financial reports achieve this communication. The Australian setting provides an ideal environment to examine the nature and extent of risk management communication as the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) has recommended risk management disclosures follow Principle 7 of its principle-based governance rules since 2007.
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BACKGROUND Given moderately strong genetic contributions to variation in alcoholism and heaviness of drinking (50% to 60% heritability) with high correlation of genetic influences, we have conducted a quantitative trait genome-wide association study (GWAS) for phenotypes related to alcohol use and dependence. METHODS Diagnostic interview and blood/buccal samples were obtained from sibships ascertained through the Australian Twin Registry. Genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotyping was performed with 8754 individuals (2062 alcohol-dependent cases) selected for informativeness for alcohol use disorder and associated quantitative traits. Family-based association tests were performed for alcohol dependence, dependence factor score, and heaviness of drinking factor score, with confirmatory case-population control comparisons using an unassessed population control series of 3393 Australians with genome-wide SNP data. RESULTS No findings reached genome-wide significance (p = 8.4 x 10(-8) for this study), with lowest p value for primary phenotypes of 1.2 x 10(-7). Convergent findings for quantitative consumption and diagnostic and quantitative dependence measures suggest possible roles for a transmembrane protein gene (TMEM108) and for ANKS1A. The major finding, however, was small effect sizes estimated for individual SNPs, suggesting that hundreds of genetic variants make modest contributions (1/4% of variance or less) to alcohol dependence risk. CONCLUSIONS We conclude that: - 1) meta-analyses of consumption data may contribute usefully to gene discovery; - 2) translation of human alcoholism GWAS results to drug discovery or clinically useful prediction of risk will be challenging, and; - 3) through accumulation across studies, GWAS data may become valuable for improved genetic risk differentiation in research in biological psychiatry (e.g., prospective high-risk or resilience studies).
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OBJECTIVE: The study of ethnically homogeneous populations may help to identify schizophrenia risk loci. The authors conducted a genomewide linkage scan for schizophrenia in an Indian population. METHOD: Participants were 441 individuals (262 affected probands and siblings) who were recruited primarily from one ethnically homogeneous group, the Tamil Brahmin caste, although individuals from other geographically proximal castes also participated. Genotyping of 124 affected sibling pair pedigrees was performed with 402 short tandem repeat polymorphisms. Linkage analyses were conducted using nonparametric exponential LOD (logarithm of the odds ratio for linkage) scores and parametric heterogeneity LOD scores. Parametric heterogeneity scores were calculated using simple dominant and recessive models, correcting for multiple statistics. The data were examined for evidence of consanguinity. Genomewide significance levels were determined using 10,000 gene dropping simulations. RESULTS: These findings revealed genomewide significant linkage to chromosome 1p31.1, through the use of both exponential and heterogeneity LOD scores, incorporating correction for multiple statistics and mild consanguinity. The estimated sibling recurrence risk associated with this putative locus was 1.95. Analysis for heterogeneity LOD scores also detected suggestive linkage to chromosomes 13q22.1 and 16q12.2. Using 117 tag single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), family-based association analyses of phosphodiesterase 4B (PDE4B), the closest schizophrenia candidate gene, detected no convincing evidence of association, suggesting that the chromosome 1 peak represents a novel risk locus. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study-to the authors' knowledge-to report significant linkage of schizophrenia to chromosome 1p31.1. Further investigation of this chromosome region in diverse populations is warranted to identify underlying sequence variants.
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Arguing the value of effective HRM practice has long been a focus in the HRM literature. However, there is also a case for identifying the risks presented by inappropriate or absent HRM practices. Although risk management has been established in the broader management literature for over two decades, human resource related risks have not featured as prominently as other types of risks. HRM as a discipline has a role to play in addressing this situation and raising awareness of human resource issues as risks for the organization. A review of papers published since the year 2000 in a broad range of high quality management journals, identifies that limited research has thus far taken a risk management perspective on human resources. Although the HRM and risk management disciplines stand to benefit from drawing the two areas together, this review concludes that further research and development of the phenomenon of human resource risk management is needed.
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We describe a novel approach to treatment planning for focal brachytherapy utilizing a biologically based inverse optimization algorithm and biological imaging to target an ablative dose at known regions of significant tumour burden and a lower, therapeutic dose to low risk regions.
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Purpose The object of this paper is to examine whether the improvements in technology that enhance community understanding of the frequency and severity of natural hazards also increased the risk of potential liability of planning authorities in negligence. In Australia, the National Strategy imposes a resilience based approach to disaster management and stresses that responsible land use planning can reduce or prevent the impact of natural hazards upon communities. Design/methodology/approach This paper analyses how the principles of negligence allocate responsibility for loss suffered by a landowner in a hazard prone area between the landowner and local government. Findings The analysis in this paper concludes that despite being able to establish a causal link between the loss suffered by a landowner and the approval of a local authority to build in a hazard prone area, it would be in the rarest of circumstances a negligence action may be proven. Research limitations/implications The focus of this paper is on planning policies and land development, not on the negligent provision of advice or information by the local authority. Practical implications This paper identifies the issues a landowner may face when seeking compensation from a local authority for loss suffered due to the occurrence of a natural hazard known or predicted to be possible in the area. Originality/value The paper establishes that as risk managers, local authorities must place reliance upon scientific modelling and predictive technology when determining planning processes in order to fulfil their responsibilities under the National Strategy and to limit any possible liability in negligence.