312 resultados para Numerical weather forecasting.


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Fire design is an essential part of the overall design procedure of structural steel members and systems. Conventionally, increased fire rating is provided simply by adding more plasterboards to Light gauge Steel Frame (LSF) stud walls, which is inefficient. However, recently Kolarkar & Mahendran (2008) developed a new composite wall panel system, where the insulation was located externally between the plasterboards on both sides of the steel wall frame. Numerical and experimental studies were undertaken to investigate the structural and fire performance of LSF walls using the new composite panels under axial compression. This paper presents the details of the numerical studies of the new LSF walls and the results. It also includes brief details of the experimental studies. Experimental and numerical results were compared for the purpose of validating the developed numerical model. The paper also describes the structural and fire performance of the new LSF wall system in comparison to traditional wall systems using cavity insulation.

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We consider a time and space-symmetric fractional diffusion equation (TSS-FDE) under homogeneous Dirichlet conditions and homogeneous Neumann conditions. The TSS-FDE is obtained from the standard diffusion equation by replacing the first-order time derivative by a Caputo fractional derivative, and the second order space derivative by a symmetric fractional derivative. First, a method of separating variables expresses the analytical solution of the TSS-FDE in terms of the Mittag--Leffler function. Second, we propose two numerical methods to approximate the Caputo time fractional derivative: the finite difference method; and the Laplace transform method. The symmetric space fractional derivative is approximated using the matrix transform method. Finally, numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the numerical methods and to confirm the theoretical claims.

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Fractional Fokker-Planck equations (FFPEs) have gained much interest recently for describing transport dynamics in complex systems that are governed by anomalous diffusion and nonexponential relaxation patterns. However, effective numerical methods and analytic techniques for the FFPE are still in their embryonic state. In this paper, we consider a class of time-space fractional Fokker-Planck equations with a nonlinear source term (TSFFPE-NST), which involve the Caputo time fractional derivative (CTFD) of order α ∈ (0, 1) and the symmetric Riesz space fractional derivative (RSFD) of order μ ∈ (1, 2). Approximating the CTFD and RSFD using the L1-algorithm and shifted Grunwald method, respectively, a computationally effective numerical method is presented to solve the TSFFPE-NST. The stability and convergence of the proposed numerical method are investigated. Finally, numerical experiments are carried out to support the theoretical claims.

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Fractional Fokker–Planck equations have been used to model several physical situations that present anomalous diffusion. In this paper, a class of time- and space-fractional Fokker–Planck equations (TSFFPE), which involve the Riemann–Liouville time-fractional derivative of order 1-α (α(0, 1)) and the Riesz space-fractional derivative (RSFD) of order μ(1, 2), are considered. The solution of TSFFPE is important for describing the competition between subdiffusion and Lévy flights. However, effective numerical methods for solving TSFFPE are still in their infancy. We present three computationally efficient numerical methods to deal with the RSFD, and approximate the Riemann–Liouville time-fractional derivative using the Grünwald method. The TSFFPE is then transformed into a system of ordinary differential equations (ODE), which is solved by the fractional implicit trapezoidal method (FITM). Finally, numerical results are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of these methods. These techniques can also be applied to solve other types of fractional partial differential equations.

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We consider a time and space-symmetric fractional diffusion equation (TSS-FDE) under homogeneous Dirichlet conditions and homogeneous Neumann conditions. The TSS-FDE is obtained from the standard diffusion equation by replacing the first-order time derivative by the Caputo fractional derivative and the second order space derivative by the symmetric fractional derivative. Firstly, a method of separating variables is used to express the analytical solution of the tss-fde in terms of the Mittag–Leffler function. Secondly, we propose two numerical methods to approximate the Caputo time fractional derivative, namely, the finite difference method and the Laplace transform method. The symmetric space fractional derivative is approximated using the matrix transform method. Finally, numerical results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the numerical methods and to confirm the theoretical claims.

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This research discusses some of the issues encountered while developing a set of WGEN parameters for Chile and advice for others interested in developing WGEN parameters for arid climates. The WGEN program is a commonly used and a valuable research tool; however, it has specific limitations in arid climates that need careful consideration. These limitations are analysed in the context of generating a set of WGEN parameters for Chile. Fourteen to 26 years of precipitation data are used to calculate precipitation parameters for 18 locations in Chile, and 3–8 years of temperature and solar radiation data are analysed to generate parameters for seven of these locations. Results indicate that weather generation parameters in arid regions are sensitive to erroneous or missing precipitation data. Research shows that the WGEN-estimated gamma distribution shape parameter (α) for daily precipitation in arid zones will tend to cluster around discrete values of 0 or 1, masking the high sensitivity of these parameters to additional data. Rather than focus on the length in years when assessing the adequacy of a data record for estimation of precipitation parameters, researchers should focus on the number of wet days in dry months in a data set. Analysis of the WGEN routines for the estimation of temperature and solar radiation parameters indicates that errors can occur when individual ‘months’ have fewer than two wet days in the data set. Recommendations are provided to improve methods for estimation of WGEN parameters in arid climates.

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At least two important transportation planning activities rely on planning-level crash prediction models. One is motivated by the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century, which requires departments of transportation and metropolitan planning organizations to consider safety explicitly in the transportation planning process. The second could arise from a need for state agencies to establish incentive programs to reduce injuries and save lives. Both applications require a forecast of safety for a future period. Planning-level crash prediction models for the Tucson, Arizona, metropolitan region are presented to demonstrate the feasibility of such models. Data were separated into fatal, injury, and property-damage crashes. To accommodate overdispersion in the data, negative binomial regression models were applied. To accommodate the simultaneity of fatality and injury crash outcomes, simultaneous estimation of the models was conducted. All models produce crash forecasts at the traffic analysis zone level. Statistically significant (p-values < 0.05) and theoretically meaningful variables for the fatal crash model included population density, persons 17 years old or younger as a percentage of the total population, and intersection density. Significant variables for the injury and property-damage crash models were population density, number of employees, intersections density, percentage of miles of principal arterial, percentage of miles of minor arterials, and percentage of miles of urban collectors. Among several conclusions it is suggested that planning-level safety models are feasible and may play a role in future planning activities. However, caution must be exercised with such models.

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Short-term traffic flow data is characterized by rapid and dramatic fluctuations. It reflects the nature of the frequent congestion in the lane, which shows a strong nonlinear feature. Traffic state estimation based on the data gained by electronic sensors is critical for much intelligent traffic management and the traffic control. In this paper, a solution to freeway traffic estimation in Beijing is proposed using a particle filter, based on macroscopic traffic flow model, which estimates both traffic density and speed.Particle filter is a nonlinear prediction method, which has obvious advantages for traffic flows prediction. However, with the increase of sampling period, the volatility of the traffic state curve will be much dramatic. Therefore, the prediction accuracy will be affected and difficulty of forecasting is raised. In this paper, particle filter model is applied to estimate the short-term traffic flow. Numerical study is conducted based on the Beijing freeway data with the sampling period of 2 min. The relatively high accuracy of the results indicates the superiority of the proposed model.

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The driving task requires sustained attention during prolonged periods, and can be performed in highly predictable or repetitive environments. Such conditions could create hypovigilance and impair performance towards critical events. Identifying such impairment in monotonous conditions has been a major subject of research, but no research to date has attempted to predict it in real-time. This pilot study aims to show that performance decrements due to monotonous tasks can be predicted through mathematical modelling taking into account sensation seeking levels. A short vigilance task sensitive to short periods of lapses of vigilance called Sustained Attention to Response Task is used to assess participants‟ performance. The framework for prediction developed on this task could be extended to a monotonous driving task. A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is proposed to predict participants‟ lapses in alertness. Driver‟s vigilance evolution is modelled as a hidden state and is correlated to a surrogate measure: the participant‟s reactions time. This experiment shows that the monotony of the task can lead to an important decline in performance in less than five minutes. This impairment can be predicted four minutes in advance with an 86% accuracy using HMMs. This experiment showed that mathematical models such as HMM can efficiently predict hypovigilance through surrogate measures. The presented model could result in the development of an in-vehicle device that detects driver hypovigilance in advance and warn the driver accordingly, thus offering the potential to enhance road safety and prevent road crashes.

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The health of tollbooth workers is seriously threatened by long-term exposure to polluted air from vehicle exhausts. Using traffic data collected at a toll plaza, vehicle movements were simulated by a system dynamics model with different traffic volumes and toll collection procedures. This allowed the average travel time of vehicles to be calculated. A three-dimension Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model was used with a k–ε turbulence model to simulate pollutant dispersion at the toll plaza for different traffic volumes and toll collection procedures. It was shown that pollutant concentration around tollbooths increases as traffic volume increases. Whether traffic volume is low or high (1500 vehicles/h or 2500 vehicles/h), pollutant concentration decreases if electronic toll collection (ETC) is adopted. In addition, pollutant concentration around tollbooths decreases as the proportion of ETC-equipped vehicles increases. However, if the proportion of ETC-equipped vehicles is very low and the traffic volume is not heavy, then pollutant concentration increases as the number of ETC lanes increases.

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Most research on numerical development in children is behavioural, focusing on accuracy and response time in different problem formats. However, Temple and Posner (1998) used ERPs and the numerical distance task with 5-year-olds to show that the development of numerical representations is difficult to disentangle from the development of the executive components of response organization and execution. Here we use the numerical Stroop paradigm (NSP) and ERPs to study possible executive interference in numerical processing tasks in 6–8-year-old children. In the NSP, the numerical magnitude of the digits is task-relevant and the physical size of the digits is task-irrelevant. We show that younger children are highly susceptible to interference from irrelevant physical information such as digit size, but that access to the numerical representation is almost as fast in young children as in adults. We argue that the developmental trajectories for executive function and numerical processing may act together to determine numerical development in young children.

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Based on the embedded atom method (EAM), a molecular dynamics (MD) simulation is performed to study the single-crystal copper nanowire with surface defects through tension. The tension simulations for nanowire without defect are first carried out under different temperatures, strain rates and time steps and then surface defect effects for nanowire are investigated. The stress-strain curves obtained by the MD simulations of various strain rates show a rate below 1 x 10(9) s-1 will exert less effect on the yield strength and yield point, and the Young's modulus is independent of strain rate. a time step below 5 fs is recommend for the atomic model during the MD simulation. It is observed that high temperature leads to low Young's modulus, as well as the yield strength. The surface defects on nanowires are systematically studied in considering different defect orientations. It is found that the surface defect serves as a dislocation source, and the yield strength shows 34.20% decresse with 45 degree surface defect. Both yield strength and yield point are significantly influenced by the surface defects, except the Young's modulus.

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The heavy rain falls that we have been experiencing have had their impact on the public transport system, especially the ferries. September 2010 was the Brisbane area’s wettest on record, and early to mid October has shaped up much the same. So much so that the South East Queensland’s main water storages, the Wivenhoe and Somerset Dams, which are fed by the Stanley and Brisbane Rivers’ upper catchments, have filled to capacity. SEQ Water consequently released the floodgates on the Wivenhoe Dam for the first time in almost a decade, with bipartisan support of State and Local Governments.