Evaluation of the Scottsdale Loop 101 automated speed enforcement demonstration program

Speeding is recognized as a major contributing factor in traffic crashes. In order to reduce speed-related crashes, the city of Scottsdale, Arizona implemented the first fixed-camera photo speed enforcement program (SEP) on a limited access freeway in the US. The 9-month demonstration program spanning from January 2006 to October 2006 was implemented on a 6.5 mile urban freeway segment of Arizona State Route 101 running through Scottsdale. This paper presents the results of a comprehensive analysis of the impact of the SEP on speeding behavior, crashes, and the economic impact of crashes. The impact on speeding behavior was estimated using generalized least square estimation, in which the observed speeds and the speeding frequencies during the program period were compared to those during other periods. The impact of the SEP on crashes was estimated using 3 evaluation methods: a before-and-after (BA) analysis using a comparison group, a BA analysis with traffic flow correction, and an empirical Bayes BA analysis with time-variant safety. The analysis results reveal that speeding detection frequencies (speeds> or =76 mph) increased by a factor of 10.5 after the SEP was (temporarily) terminated. Average speeds in the enforcement zone were reduced by about 9 mph when the SEP was implemented, after accounting for the influence of traffic flow. All crash types were reduced except rear-end crashes, although the estimated magnitude of impact varies across estimation methods (and their corresponding assumptions). When considering Arizona-specific crash related injury costs, the SEP is estimated to yield about $17 million in annual safety benefits.

Experimental evaluation of hotspot identification methods

Identifying crash “hotspots”, “blackspots”, “sites with promise”, or “high risk” locations is standard practice in departments of transportation throughout the US. The literature is replete with the development and discussion of statistical methods for hotspot identification (HSID). Theoretical derivations and empirical studies have been used to weigh the benefits of various HSID methods; however, a small number of studies have used controlled experiments to systematically assess various methods. Using experimentally derived simulated data—which are argued to be superior to empirical data, three hot spot identification methods observed in practice are evaluated: simple ranking, confidence interval, and Empirical Bayes. Using simulated data, sites with promise are known a priori, in contrast to empirical data where high risk sites are not known for certain. To conduct the evaluation, properties of observed crash data are used to generate simulated crash frequency distributions at hypothetical sites. A variety of factors is manipulated to simulate a host of ‘real world’ conditions. Various levels of confidence are explored, and false positives (identifying a safe site as high risk) and false negatives (identifying a high risk site as safe) are compared across methods. Finally, the effects of crash history duration in the three HSID approaches are assessed. The results illustrate that the Empirical Bayes technique significantly outperforms ranking and confidence interval techniques (with certain caveats). As found by others, false positives and negatives are inversely related. Three years of crash history appears, in general, to provide an appropriate crash history duration.

The effect of presbyiopic vision corrections on nighttime driving performance

Purpose. To investigate the effect of various presbyopic vision corrections on nighttime driving performance on a closed-road driving circuit. Methods. Participants were 11 presbyopes (mean age, 57.3 ± 5.8 years), with a mean best sphere distance refractive error of R+0.23±1.53 DS and L+0.20±1.50 DS, whose only experience of wearing presbyopic vision correction was reading spectacles. The study involved a repeated-measures design by which a participant's nighttime driving performance was assessed on a closed-road circuit while wearing each of four power-matched vision corrections. These included single-vision distance lenses (SV), progressive-addition spectacle lenses (PAL), monovision contact lenses (MV), and multifocal contact lenses (MTF CL) worn in a randomized order. Measures included low-contrast road hazard detection and avoidance, road sign and near target recognition, lane-keeping, driving time, and legibility distance for street signs. Eye movement data (fixation duration and number of fixations) were also recorded. Results. Street sign legibility distances were shorter when wearing MV and MTF CL than SV and PAL (P < 0.001), and participants drove more slowly with MTF CL than with PALs (P = 0.048). Wearing SV resulted in more errors (P < 0.001) and in more (P = 0.002) and longer (P < 0.001) fixations when responding to near targets. Fixation duration was also longer when viewing distant signs with MTF CL than with PAL (P = 0.031). Conclusions. Presbyopic vision corrections worn by naive, unadapted wearers affected nighttime driving. Overall, spectacle corrections (PAL and SV) performed well for distance driving tasks, but SV negatively affected viewing near dashboard targets. MTF CL resulted in the shortest legibility distance for street signs and longer fixation times.

Analysis of cardiac and epileptic signals using higher order spectra

The theory of nonlinear dyamic systems provides some new methods to handle complex systems. Chaos theory offers new concepts, algorithms and methods for processing, enhancing and analyzing the measured signals. In recent years, researchers are applying the concepts from this theory to bio-signal analysis. In this work, the complex dynamics of the bio-signals such as electrocardiogram (ECG) and electroencephalogram (EEG) are analyzed using the tools of nonlinear systems theory. In the modern industrialized countries every year several hundred thousands of people die due to sudden cardiac death. The Electrocardiogram (ECG) is an important biosignal representing the sum total of millions of cardiac cell depolarization potentials. It contains important insight into the state of health and nature of the disease afflicting the heart. Heart rate variability (HRV) refers to the regulation of the sinoatrial node, the natural pacemaker of the heart by the sympathetic and parasympathetic branches of the autonomic nervous system. Heart rate variability analysis is an important tool to observe the heart's ability to respond to normal regulatory impulses that affect its rhythm. A computerbased intelligent system for analysis of cardiac states is very useful in diagnostics and disease management. Like many bio-signals, HRV signals are non-linear in nature. Higher order spectral analysis (HOS) is known to be a good tool for the analysis of non-linear systems and provides good noise immunity. In this work, we studied the HOS of the HRV signals of normal heartbeat and four classes of arrhythmia. This thesis presents some general characteristics for each of these classes of HRV signals in the bispectrum and bicoherence plots. Several features were extracted from the HOS and subjected an Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) test. The results are very promising for cardiac arrhythmia classification with a number of features yielding a p-value < 0.02 in the ANOVA test. An automated intelligent system for the identification of cardiac health is very useful in healthcare technology. In this work, seven features were extracted from the heart rate signals using HOS and fed to a support vector machine (SVM) for classification. The performance evaluation protocol in this thesis uses 330 subjects consisting of five different kinds of cardiac disease conditions. The classifier achieved a sensitivity of 90% and a specificity of 89%. This system is ready to run on larger data sets. In EEG analysis, the search for hidden information for identification of seizures has a long history. Epilepsy is a pathological condition characterized by spontaneous and unforeseeable occurrence of seizures, during which the perception or behavior of patients is disturbed. An automatic early detection of the seizure onsets would help the patients and observers to take appropriate precautions. Various methods have been proposed to predict the onset of seizures based on EEG recordings. The use of nonlinear features motivated by the higher order spectra (HOS) has been reported to be a promising approach to differentiate between normal, background (pre-ictal) and epileptic EEG signals. In this work, these features are used to train both a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) classifier and a Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier. Results show that the classifiers were able to achieve 93.11% and 92.67% classification accuracy, respectively, with selected HOS based features. About 2 hours of EEG recordings from 10 patients were used in this study. This thesis introduces unique bispectrum and bicoherence plots for various cardiac conditions and for normal, background and epileptic EEG signals. These plots reveal distinct patterns. The patterns are useful for visual interpretation by those without a deep understanding of spectral analysis such as medical practitioners. It includes original contributions in extracting features from HRV and EEG signals using HOS and entropy, in analyzing the statistical properties of such features on real data and in automated classification using these features with GMM and SVM classifiers.

Color and texture feature fusion using kernel PCA with application to object-based vegetation species classification

A good object representation or object descriptor is one of the key issues in object based image analysis. To effectively fuse color and texture as a unified descriptor at object level, this paper presents a novel method for feature fusion. Color histogram and the uniform local binary patterns are extracted from arbitrary-shaped image-objects, and kernel principal component analysis (kernel PCA) is employed to find nonlinear relationships of the extracted color and texture features. The maximum likelihood approach is used to estimate the intrinsic dimensionality, which is then used as a criterion for automatic selection of optimal feature set from the fused feature. The proposed method is evaluated using SVM as the benchmark classifier and is applied to object-based vegetation species classification using high spatial resolution aerial imagery. Experimental results demonstrate that great improvement can be achieved by using proposed feature fusion method.

Spatial analysis of notified dengue fever infections

This study aimed to investigate the spatial clustering and dynamic dispersion of dengue incidence in Queensland, Australia. We used Moran’s I statistic to assess the spatial autocorrelation of reported dengue cases. Spatial empirical Bayes smoothing estimates were used to display the spatial distribution of dengue in postal areas throughout Queensland. Local indicators of spatial association (LISA) maps and logistic regression models were used to identify spatial clusters and examine the spatio-temporal patterns of the spread of dengue. The results indicate that the spatial distribution of dengue was clustered during each of the three periods of 1993–1996, 1997–2000 and 2001–2004. The high-incidence clusters of dengue were primarily concentrated in the north of Queensland and low-incidence clusters occurred in the south-east of Queensland. The study concludes that the geographical range of notified dengue cases has significantly expanded in Queensland over recent years.

Learning articulated motion structures with Bayesian Networks

This paper presents a general methodology for learning articulated motions that, despite having non-linear correlations, are cyclical and have a defined pattern of behavior Using conventional algorithms to extract features from images, a Bayesian classifier is applied to cluster and classify features of the moving object. Clusters are then associated in different frames and structure learning algorithms for Bayesian networks are used to recover the structure of the motion. This framework is applied to the human gait analysis and tracking but applications include any coordinated movement such as multi-robots behavior analysis.

The influence of underreported crashes on hotspot identification

Hot spot identification (HSID) plays a significant role in improving the safety of transportation networks. Numerous HSID methods have been proposed, developed, and evaluated in the literature. The vast majority of HSID methods reported and evaluated in the literature assume that crash data are complete, reliable, and accurate. Crash under-reporting, however, has long been recognized as a threat to the accuracy and completeness of historical traffic crash records. As a natural continuation of prior studies, the paper evaluates the influence that under-reported crashes exert on HSID methods. To conduct the evaluation, five groups of data gathered from Arizona Department of Transportation (ADOT) over the course of three years are adjusted to account for fifteen different assumed levels of under-reporting. Three identification methods are evaluated: simple ranking (SR), empirical Bayes (EB) and full Bayes (FB). Various threshold levels for establishing hotspots are explored. Finally, two evaluation criteria are compared across HSID methods. The results illustrate that the identification bias—the ability to correctly identify at risk sites--under-reporting is influenced by the degree of under-reporting. Comparatively speaking, crash under-reporting has the largest influence on the FB method and the least influence on the SR method. Additionally, the impact is positively related to the percentage of the under-reported PDO crashes and inversely related to the percentage of the under-reported injury crashes. This finding is significant because it reveals that despite PDO crashes being least severe and costly, they have the most significant influence on the accuracy of HSID.

Machine prognostics based on health state probability estimation

The ability to accurately predict the remaining useful life of machine components is critical for machine continuous operation and can also improve productivity and enhance system’s safety. In condition-based maintenance (CBM), maintenance is performed based on information collected through condition monitoring and assessment of the machine health. Effective diagnostics and prognostics are important aspects of CBM for maintenance engineers to schedule a repair and to acquire replacement components before the components actually fail. Although a variety of prognostic methodologies have been reported recently, their application in industry is still relatively new and mostly focused on the prediction of specific component degradations. Furthermore, they required significant and sufficient number of fault indicators to accurately prognose the component faults. Hence, sufficient usage of health indicators in prognostics for the effective interpretation of machine degradation process is still required. Major challenges for accurate longterm prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) still remain to be addressed. Therefore, continuous development and improvement of a machine health management system and accurate long-term prediction of machine remnant life is required in real industry application. This thesis presents an integrated diagnostics and prognostics framework based on health state probability estimation for accurate and long-term prediction of machine remnant life. In the proposed model, prior empirical (historical) knowledge is embedded in the integrated diagnostics and prognostics system for classification of impending faults in machine system and accurate probability estimation of discrete degradation stages (health states). The methodology assumes that machine degradation consists of a series of degraded states (health states) which effectively represent the dynamic and stochastic process of machine failure. The estimation of discrete health state probability for the prediction of machine remnant life is performed using the ability of classification algorithms. To employ the appropriate classifier for health state probability estimation in the proposed model, comparative intelligent diagnostic tests were conducted using five different classifiers applied to the progressive fault data of three different faults in a high pressure liquefied natural gas (HP-LNG) pump. As a result of this comparison study, SVMs were employed in heath state probability estimation for the prediction of machine failure in this research. The proposed prognostic methodology has been successfully tested and validated using a number of case studies from simulation tests to real industry applications. The results from two actual failure case studies using simulations and experiments indicate that accurate estimation of health states is achievable and the proposed method provides accurate long-term prediction of machine remnant life. In addition, the results of experimental tests show that the proposed model has the capability of providing early warning of abnormal machine operating conditions by identifying the transitional states of machine fault conditions. Finally, the proposed prognostic model is validated through two industrial case studies. The optimal number of health states which can minimise the model training error without significant decrease of prediction accuracy was also examined through several health states of bearing failure. The results were very encouraging and show that the proposed prognostic model based on health state probability estimation has the potential to be used as a generic and scalable asset health estimation tool in industrial machinery.

Design and development of automatic visual inspection system for PCB manufacturing

Inspection of solder joints has been a critical process in the electronic manufacturing industry to reduce manufacturing cost, improve yield, and ensure product quality and reliability. This paper proposes two inspection modules for an automatic solder joint classification system. The “front-end” inspection system includes illumination normalisation, localisation and segmentation. The “back-end” inspection involves the classification of solder joints using the Log Gabor filter and classifier fusion. Five different levels of solder quality with respect to the amount of solder paste have been defined. The Log Gabor filter has been demonstrated to achieve high recognition rates and is resistant to misalignment. This proposed system does not need any special illumination system, and the images are acquired by an ordinary digital camera. This system could contribute to the development of automated non-contact, non-destructive and low cost solder joint quality inspection systems.

Fault diagnosis of induction motor based on decision trees and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference

This paper presents a fault diagnosis method based on adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in combination with decision trees. Classification and regression tree (CART) which is one of the decision tree methods is used as a feature selection procedure to select pertinent features from data set. The crisp rules obtained from the decision tree are then converted to fuzzy if-then rules that are employed to identify the structure of ANFIS classifier. The hybrid of back-propagation and least squares algorithm are utilized to tune the parameters of the membership functions. In order to evaluate the proposed algorithm, the data sets obtained from vibration signals and current signals of the induction motors are used. The results indicate that the CART–ANFIS model has potential for fault diagnosis of induction motors.

Cardiac health diagnosis using higher order spectra and support vector machine

The Electrocardiogram (ECG) is an important bio-signal representing the sum total of millions of cardiac cell depolarization potentials. It contains important insight into the state of health and nature of the disease afflicting the heart. Heart rate variability (HRV) refers to the regulation of the sinoatrial node, the natural pacemaker of the heart by the sympathetic and parasympathetic branches of the autonomic nervous system. The HRV signal can be used as a base signal to observe the heart's functioning. These signals are non-linear and non-stationary in nature. So, higher order spectral (HOS) analysis, which is more suitable for non-linear systems and is robust to noise, was used. An automated intelligent system for the identification of cardiac health is very useful in healthcare technology. In this work, we have extracted seven features from the heart rate signals using HOS and fed them to a support vector machine (SVM) for classification. Our performance evaluation protocol uses 330 subjects consisting of five different kinds of cardiac disease conditions. We demonstrate a sensitivity of 90% for the classifier with a specificity of 87.93%. Our system is ready to run on larger data sets.

Spectral–texture feature extraction using statistical moments with application to object-based vegetation species classification

The use of appropriate features to characterise an output class or object is critical for all classification problems. In order to find optimal feature descriptors for vegetation species classification in a power line corridor monitoring application, this article evaluates the capability of several spectral and texture features. A new idea of spectral–texture feature descriptor is proposed by incorporating spectral vegetation indices in statistical moment features. The proposed method is evaluated against several classic texture feature descriptors. Object-based classification method is used and a support vector machine is employed as the benchmark classifier. Individual tree crowns are first detected and segmented from aerial images and different feature vectors are extracted to represent each tree crown. The experimental results showed that the proposed spectral moment features outperform or can at least compare with the state-of-the-art texture descriptors in terms of classification accuracy. A comprehensive quantitative evaluation using receiver operating characteristic space analysis further demonstrates the strength of the proposed feature descriptors.

Boosting the margin: A new explanation for the effectiveness of voting methods

One of the surprising recurring phenomena observed in experiments with boosting is that the test error of the generated classifier usually does not increase as its size becomes very large, and often is observed to decrease even after the training error reaches zero. In this paper, we show that this phenomenon is related to the distribution of margins of the training examples with respect to the generated voting classification rule, where the margin of an example is simply the difference between the number of correct votes and the maximum number of votes received by any incorrect label. We show that techniques used in the analysis of Vapnik's support vector classifiers and of neural networks with small weights can be applied to voting methods to relate the margin distribution to the test error. We also show theoretically and experimentally that boosting is especially effective at increasing the margins of the training examples. Finally, we compare our explanation to those based on the bias-variance decomposition.