Development of diagnostic and prognostic algorithms from vacuum circuit breaker restrike review and its validation proposal

The CIGRE WGs A3.20 and A3.24 identify the requirements of simulation tools to predict various stresses during the development and operational phases of medium voltage vacuum circuit breaker (VCB) testing. This paper reviews the modelling methodology [13], VCB models and tools to identify future research. It will include the application of the VCB model for the impending failure of a VCB using electro-magnetic-transient-program with diagnostic and prognostic algorithm development. The methodology developed for a VCB degradation model is to modify the dielectric equation to cover a restriking period of more than 1 millimetre.

Group maintenance scheduling : a case study for a pipeline network

This paper presents a group maintenance scheduling case study for a water distributed network. This water pipeline network presents the challenge of maintaining aging pipelines with the associated increases in annual maintenance costs. The case study focuses on developing an effective maintenance plan for the water utility. Current replacement planning is difficult as it needs to balance the replacement needs under limited budgets. A Maintenance Grouping Optimization (MGO) model based on a modified genetic algorithm was utilized to develop an optimum group maintenance schedule over a 20-year cycle. The adjacent geographical distribution of pipelines was used as a grouping criterion to control the searching space of the MGO model through a Judgment Matrix. Based on the optimum group maintenance schedule, the total cost was effectively reduced compared with the schedules without grouping maintenance jobs. This optimum result can be used as a guidance to optimize the current maintenance plan for the water utility.

Estimating the loading condition of a diesel engine using instantaneous angular speed analysis

Continuing monitoring of diesel engine performance is critical for early detection of fault developments in the engine before they materialize and become a functional failure. Instantaneous crank angular speed (IAS) analysis is one of a few non intrusive condition monitoring techniques that can be utilized for such tasks. In this experimental study, IAS analysis was employed to estimate the loading condition of a 4-stroke 4-cylinder diesel engine in a laboratory condition. It was shown that IAS analysis can provide useful information about engine speed variation caused by the changing piston momentum and crankshaft acceleration during the engine combustion process. It was also found that the major order component of the IAS spectrum directly associated with the engine firing frequency (at twice the mean shaft revolution speed) can be utilized to estimate the engine loading condition regardless of whether the engine is operating at normal running conditions or in a simulated faulty injector case. The amplitude of this order component follows a clear exponential curve as the loading condition changes. A mathematical relationship was established for the estimation of the engine power output based on the amplitude of the major order component of the measured IAS spectrum.

Estimating the loading condition of a diesel engine using instantaneous angular speed analysis

Continuing monitoring of diesel engine performance is critical for early detection of fault developments in the engine before they materialize and become a functional failure. Instantaneous crank angular speed (IAS) analysis is one of a few non intrusive condition monitoring techniques that can be utilized for such tasks. In this experimental study, IAS analysis was employed to estimate the loading condition of a 4-stroke 4-cylinder diesel engine in a laboratory condition. It was shown that IAS analysis can provide useful information about engine speed variation caused by the changing piston momentum and crankshaft acceleration during the engine combustion process. It was also found that the major order component of the IAS spectrum directly associated with the engine firing frequency (at twice the mean shaft revolution speed) can be utilized to estimate the engine loading condition regardless of whether the engine is operating at normal running conditions or in a simulated faulty injector case. The amplitude of this order component follows a clear exponential curve as the loading condition changes. A mathematical relationship was established for the estimation of the engine power output based on the amplitude of the major order component of the measured IAS spectrum.

Preliminary study on bridge health prediction using Dynamic Objective Oriented Bayesian Network (DOOBN)

The availability of bridges is crucial to people’s daily life and national economy. Bridge health prediction plays an important role in bridge management because maintenance optimization is implemented based on prediction results of bridge deterioration. Conventional bridge deterioration models can be categorised into two groups, namely condition states models and structural reliability models. Optimal maintenance strategy should be carried out based on both condition states and structural reliability of a bridge. However, none of existing deterioration models considers both condition states and structural reliability. This study thus proposes a Dynamic Objective Oriented Bayesian Network (DOOBN) based method to overcome the limitations of the existing methods. This methodology has the ability to act upon as a flexible unifying tool, which can integrate a variety of approaches and information for better bridge deterioration prediction. Two demonstrative case studies are conducted to preliminarily justify the feasibility of the methodology

M-ary trees for combinatorial asset management decision problems

A novel m-ary tree based approach is presented to solve asset management decisions which are combinatorial in nature. The approach introduces a new dynamic constraint based control mechanism which is capable of excluding infeasible solutions from the solution space. The approach also provides a solution to the challenges with ordering of assets decisions.

Renewal decision support for linear assets

Linear (or continuous) assets are engineering infrastructure that usually spans long distances and can be divided into different segments, all of which perform the same function but may be subject to different loads and environmental factors. Typical linear assets include railway lines, roads, pipelines and cables. How and when to renew such assets are critical decisions for asset owners as they normally involves significant capital investment. Through investigating the characteristics of linear asset renewal decisions and identifying the critical requirements that are associated with renewal decisions, we present a multi-criteria decision support method to help optimise renewal decisions. A case study that concerns renewal of an economiser's tubing system is a coal-fired power station is adopted to demonstrate the application of this method. Although the paper concerns a particular linear asset decision type, the approach has broad applicability for linear asset management.

Bringing the MIMOSA OSA-EAI into an object-orientated world

Despite being poised as a standard for data exchange for operation and maintenance data, the database heritage of the MIMOSA OSA-EAI is clearly evident from using a relational model at its core. The XML schema (XSD) definitions, which are used for communication between asset management systems, are based on the MIMOSA common relational information schema (CRIS), a relational model, and consequently, many database concepts permeate the communications layer. The adoption of a relational model leads to several deficiencies, and overlooks advances in object-oriented approach for an upcoming version of the specification, and the common conceptual object model (CCOM) sees a transition to fully utilising object-oriented features for the standard. Unified modelling language (UML) is used as a medium for documentation as well as facilitating XSD code generation. This paper details some of the decisions faced in developing the CCOM and provides a glimpse into the future of asset management and data exchange models.

A Bayesian‐Markov process for reliability prediction

Accurate reliability prediction for large-scale, long lived engineering is a crucial foundation for effective asset risk management and optimal maintenance decision making. However, a lack of failure data for assets that fail infrequently, and changing operational conditions over long periods of time, make accurate reliability prediction for such assets very challenging. To address this issue, we present a Bayesian-Marko best approach to reliability prediction using prior knowledge and condition monitoring data. In this approach, the Bayesian theory is used to incorporate prior information about failure probabilities and current information about asset health to make statistical inferences, while Markov chains are used to update and predict the health of assets based on condition monitoring data. The prior information can be supplied by domain experts, extracted from previous comparable cases or derived from basic engineering principles. Our approach differs from existing hybrid Bayesian models which are normally used to update the parameter estimation of a given distribution such as the Weibull-Bayesian distribution or the transition probabilities of a Markov chain. Instead, our new approach can be used to update predictions of failure probabilities when failure data are sparse or nonexistent, as is often the case for large-scale long-lived engineering assets.

Condition deterioration prediction of bridge elements using Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs)

The ability of bridge deterioration models to predict future condition provides significant advantages in improving the effectiveness of maintenance decisions. This paper proposes a novel model using Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) for predicting the condition of bridge elements. The proposed model improves prediction results by being able to handle, deterioration dependencies among different bridge elements, the lack of full inspection histories, and joint considerations of both maintenance actions and environmental effects. With Bayesian updating capability, different types of data and information can be utilised as inputs. Expert knowledge can be used to deal with insufficient data as a starting point. The proposed model established a flexible basis for bridge systems deterioration modelling so that other models and Bayesian approaches can be further developed in one platform. A steel bridge main girder was chosen to validate the proposed model.