73 resultados para Judgments


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What type of probability theory best describes the way humans make judgments under uncertainty and decisions under conflict? Although rational models of cognition have become prominent and have achieved much success, they adhere to the laws of classical probability theory despite the fact that human reasoning does not always conform to these laws. For this reason we have seen the recent emergence of models based on an alternative probabilistic framework drawn from quantum theory. These quantum models show promise in addressing cognitive phenomena that have proven recalcitrant to modeling by means of classical probability theory. This review compares and contrasts probabilistic models based on Bayesian or classical versus quantum principles, and highlights the advantages and disadvantages of each approach.

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Word frequency (WF) and strength effects are two important phenomena associated with episodic memory. The former refers to the superior hit-rate (HR) for low (LF) compared to high frequency (HF) words in recognition memory, while the latter describes the incremental effect(s) upon HRs associated with repeating an item at study. Using the "subsequent memory" method with event-related fMRI, we tested the attention-at-encoding (AE) [M. Glanzer, J.K. Adams, The mirror effect in recognition memory: data and theory, J. Exp. Psychol.: Learn Mem. Cogn. 16 (1990) 5-16] explanation of the WF effect. In addition to investigating encoding strength, we addressed if study involves accessing prior representations of repeated items via the same mechanism as that at test [J.L. McClelland, M. Chappell, Familiarity breeds differentiation: a subjective-likelihood approach to the effects of experience in recognition memory, Psychol. Rev. 105 (1998) 724-760], entailing recollection [K.J. Malmberg, J.E. Holden, R.M. Shiffrin, Modeling the effects of repetitions, similarity, and normative word frequency on judgments of frequency and recognition memory, J. Exp. Psychol.: Learn Mem. Cogn. 30 (2004) 319-331] and whether less processing effort is entailed for encoding each repetition [M. Cary, L.M. Reder, A dual-process account of the list-length and strength-based mirror effects in recognition, J. Mem. Lang. 49 (2003) 231-248]. The increased BOLD responses observed in the left inferior prefrontal cortex (LIPC) for the WF effect provide support for an AE account. Less effort does appear to be required for encoding each repetition of an item, as reduced BOLD responses were observed in the LIPC and left lateral temporal cortex; both regions demonstrated increased responses in the conventional subsequent memory analysis. At test, a left lateral parietal BOLD response was observed for studied versus unstudied items, while only medial parietal activity was observed for repeated items at study, indicating that accessing prior representations at encoding does not necessarily occur via the same mechanism as that at test, and is unlikely to involve a conscious recall-like process such as recollection. This information may prove useful for constraining cognitive theories of episodic memory.

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This article reports on a study which reviewed all publicly available succession law judgments in Australia during a 12-month period. The article begins with a brief overview of the relevant Australian law and the method adopted for the case review to provide some context for the analysis that follows. It then shifts to its primary objective: to provide an overview of Australian estate litigation during this period with a particular focus on analysing the family provision contests, which comprised over half the cases in the sample. The article examines how many estates were subject to family provision claims, who were contesting them, and to what extent those challenges were successful. The article also considers variation in estate litigation across Australian states and the impact of estate size on contests. It concludes by identifying the themes that emerged from these judicial cases and outlines their significance for law and practice reform.

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Past research has suggested that social engineering poses the most significant security risk. Recent studies have suggested that social networking sites (SNSs) are the most common source of social engineering attacks. The risk of social engineering attacks in SNSs is associated with the difficulty of making accurate judgments regarding source credibility in the virtual environment of SNSs. In this paper, we quantitatively investigate source credibility dimensions in terms of social engineering on Facebook, as well as the source characteristics that influence Facebook users to judge an attacker as credible, therefore making them susceptible to victimization. Moreover, in order to predict users’ susceptibility to social engineering victimization based on their demographics, we investigate the effectiveness of source characteristics on different demographic groups by measuring the consent intentions and behavior responses of users to social engineering requests using a role-play experiment.

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There is limited research on the driving performance and safety of bioptic drivers and even less regarding the driving skills that are most challenging for those learning to drive with bioptic telescopes. This research consisted of case studies of five trainee bioptic drivers whose driving skills were compared with those of a group of licensed bioptic drivers (n = 23) while they drove along city, suburban, and controlled-access highways in an instrumented dual-brake vehicle. A certified driver rehabilitation specialist was positioned in the front passenger seat to monitor safety and two backseat evaluators independently rated driving using a standardized scoring system. Other aspects of performance were assessed through vehicle instrumentation and video recordings. Results demonstrate that while sign recognition, lane keeping, steering steadiness, gap judgments and speed choices were significantly worse in trainees, some driving behaviors and skills, including pedestrian detection and traffic light recognition were not significantly different to those of the licensed drivers. These data provide useful insights into the skill challenges encountered by a small sample of trainee bioptic drivers which, while not generalizable because of the small sample size, provide valuable insights beyond that of previous studies and can be used as a basis to guide training strategies.

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In light of numerous critiques of developmentalism, this article examines whether developmentalism has been a dangerous way to think about human life. It traces the emergence of different kinds of developmental discourse, locates the discursive preconditions for developmentalism's dominance in education, and examines the conjuncture between developmentalism and progressivism in shaping the limits of education's discursive field since the late 19th century. The article examines some of the productive and repressive legacies of developmental reasoning and concludes by examining present efforts to destabilize and fracture developmental discourse. It suggests that the historical articulation of developmentalism to an idea of progress has not been undermined through present-day critiques that still implicitly project "progress" as the grounds for efforts to destabilize "development. "Alternatives to developmental discourse are considered in relation to how judgments of the dangerous and the good have been shaped through problematic narratives of progress and human freedom. The Dangerous and the Good? Developmentalism, Progress, and Public Schooling - ResearchGate. Available from: http://www.researchgate.net/publication/250184611_The_Dangerous_and_the_Good_Developmentalism_Progress_and_Public_Schooling [accessed Nov 16, 2015].

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Aim An effective catch in sculling is a critical determinant of boat velocity. This study used rowers’ performance-based judgments to compare three measures of catch slip efficiency. Two questions were addressed: (1) would rower-judged Yes strokes be faster than No strokes? and (2) which method of quantifying catch slip best reflected these judgements? Methods Eight single scullers performed two 10-min blocks of sub maximal on-water rowing at 20 strokes per minute. Every 30 s, rowers reported either Yes or No about the quality of their stroke at the catch. Results It was found that Yes strokes identified by rowers had, on average, a moderate effect advantage over No strokes with a standardised effect size of 0.43. In addition, a quicker time to positive acceleration best reflected the change in performance; where the standardised mean difference score of 0.57 for time to positive acceleration was larger than the scores of 0.47 for time to PowerLine force, and 0.35 for time to 30% peak pin force catch slip measures. For all eight rowers, Yes strokes corresponded to time to positive acceleration occurring earlier than No strokes. Conclusion Rower judgements about successful strokes was linked to achieving a quicker time to positive acceleration, and may be of the most value in achieving a higher average boat velocity.

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This Article analyzes the recognition and enforcement of cross-border insolvency judgments from the United States, United Kingdom, and Australia to determine whether the UNCITRAL Model Law’s goal of modified universalism is currently being practiced, and subjects the Model Law to analysis through the lens of international relations theories to elaborate a way forward. We posit that courts could use the express language of the Model Law text to confer recognition and enforcement of foreign insolvency judgments. The adoption of our proposal will reduce costs, maximize recovery for creditors, and ensure predictability for all parties.

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An important decision brand managers have to make when positioning their products in a retail setting is to whether price new line extensions at parity or let products vary in the price/quality spectrum. Despite the growing interest in vertical line extension issues, there has been little research investigating how product-line length affects extension favorability. Therefore, this paper investigates the framing effect that a product line price structure has on consumer judgments of vertical extensions and, in particular, of upscale extensions. A basic proposition of this research is that the parent brand price range affects the perceived or psychological distance between extension and parent brand, influencing extension favorability ratings. In two experiments, it is shown that positioning an upscale extension in the context of a wide product-line will lead to higher consistency perceptions between the parent brand and a new upscale extension than an equivalent upscale extension positioned in the context of a narrow parent brand product-line.

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Despite significant research on drivers’ speeding behavior in work zones, little is known about how well drivers’ judgments of appropriate speeds match their actual speeds and what factors influence their judgments. This study aims to fill these two important gaps in the literature by comparing observed speeds in two work zones with drivers’ self-nominated speeds for the same work zones. In an online survey, drivers nominated speeds for the two work zones based on photographs in which the actual posted speed limits were not revealed. A simultaneous equation modelling approach was employed to examine the effects of driver characteristics on their self-nominated speeds. The results showed that survey participants nominated lower speeds (corresponding to higher compliance rates) than those which were observed. Higher speeds were nominated by males than females, young and middle aged drivers than older drivers, and drivers with truck driving experience than those who drive only cars. Larger differences between nominated and observed speeds were found among car drivers than truck drivers. These differences suggest that self-nominated speeds might not be valid indicators of the observed work zone speeds and therefore should not be used as an alternative to observed speed data.

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The nature of our moral judgments—and the extent to which we treat others with care—depend in part on the distinctions we make between entities deemed worthy or unworthy of moral consideration— our moral boundaries. Philosophers, historians, and social scientists have noted that people’s moral boundaries have expanded over the last few centuries, but the notion of moral expansiveness has received limited empirical attention in psychology. This research explores variations in the size of individuals’ moral boundaries using the psychological construct of moral expansiveness and introduces the Moral Expansiveness Scale (MES), designed to capture this variation. Across 6 studies, we established the reliability, convergent validity, and predictive validity of the MES. Moral expansiveness was related (but not reducible) to existing moral constructs (moral foundations, moral identity, “moral” universalism values), predictors of moral standing (moral patiency and warmth), and other constructs associated with concern for others (empathy, identification with humanity, connectedness to nature, and social responsibility). Importantly, the MES uniquely predicted willingness to engage in prosocial intentions and behaviors at personal cost independently of these established constructs. Specifically, the MES uniquely predicted willingness to prioritize humanitarian and environmental concerns over personal and national self-interest, willingness to sacrifice one’s life to save others (ranging from human out-groups to animals and plants), and volunteering behavior. Results demonstrate that moral expansiveness is a distinct and important factor in understanding moral judgments and their consequences.

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The questions of whether science pursues truth as correspondence to reality and whether science in fact progresses towards attaining a truthful understanding of physical reality are fundamental and contested in the philosophy of science. On one side of the debate stands Popper, who argues that science is objective, necessarily assumes a correspondence theory of truth, and inevitably progresses toward truth as physical theories develop, gaining a more truthful understanding of reality through progressively more sophisticated empirical analysis. Conversely Kuhn, influenced by postmodern philosophy, argues that ultimate truth cannot be attained since no objective metaphysical reality exists and it cannot be known, and consequently the notion of scientific objectivity and "progress" is a myth, marred by philosophical and ideological value judgments. Ultimately, Kuhn reduces so-called scientific progress through the adoption of successive paradigms to leaps of "faith". This paper seeks a reconciliation of the two extremes, arguing that Popper is correct in the sense that science assumes a correspondence theory of truth and may progress toward truth as physical theories develop, while simultaneously acknowledging with Kuhn that science is not purely objective and free of value judgments. The notion of faith is also critical, for it was the acknowledgement of God's existence as the creator and instituter of observable natural laws which allowed the development of science and the scientific method in the first place. Therefore, accepting and synthesising the contentions that science is to some extent founded on faith, assumes and progresses toward truth, and is subject to value judgments is necessary for the progress of science.

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In Hayes v Westpac Banking Corporation [2015] QCA 260 the Queensland Court of Appeal examined the relationship between rules 7 (extending and shortening time) and 667 (setting aside) of the Uniform Civil Procedure Rules 1999 (Qld), and held that r667(1) does not enable the court to set aside or vary an order after the order has been filed. The court found that, to the extent that this conclusion was contrary to the decision in McIntosh v Linke Nominees Pty Ltd [2010] 1 Qd R 152, the decision in McIntosh was wrong and should not be followed.