A comparison of alternative bankruptcy prediction models

Early models of bankruptcy prediction employed financial ratios drawn from pre-bankruptcy financial statements and performed well both in-sample and out-of-sample. Since then there has been an ongoing effort in the literature to develop models with even greater predictive performance. A significant innovation in the literature was the introduction into bankruptcy prediction models of capital market data such as excess stock returns and stock return volatility, along with the application of the Black–Scholes–Merton option-pricing model. In this note, we test five key bankruptcy models from the literature using an upto- date data set and find that they each contain unique information regarding the probability of bankruptcy but that their performance varies over time. We build a new model comprising key variables from each of the five models and add a new variable that proxies for the degree of diversification within the firm. The degree of diversification is shown to be negatively associated with the risk of bankruptcy. This more general model outperforms the existing models in a variety of in-sample and out-of-sample tests.

An economic evaluation of the Safe Motherhood programme in Guangxi, China

Maternal and infant mortality is a global health issue with a significant social and economic impact. Each year, over half a million women worldwide die due to complications related to pregnancy or childbirth, four million infants die in the first 28 days of life, and eight million infants die in the first year. Ninety-nine percent of maternal and infant deaths are in developing countries. Reducing maternal and infant mortality is among the key international development goals. In China, the national maternal mortality ratio and infant mortality rate were reduced greatly in the past two decades, yet a large discrepancy remains between urban and rural areas. To address this problem, a large-scale Safe Motherhood Programme was initiated in 2000. The programme was implemented in Guangxi in 2003. Interventions in the programme included both demand-side and supply side-interventions focusing on increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes. Little is known about the effects and economic outcomes of the Safe Motherhood Programme in Guangxi, although it has been implemented for seven years. The aim of this research is to estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme in Guangxi, China. The objectives of this research include: 1. To evaluate whether the changes of health service use and birth outcomes are associated with the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme. 2. To estimate the cost-effectiveness of the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme and quantify the uncertainty surrounding the decision. 3. To assess the expected value of perfect information associated with both the whole decision and individual parameters, and interpret the findings to inform priority setting in further research and policy making in this area. A quasi-experimental study design was used in this research to assess the effectiveness of the programme in increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes. The study subjects were 51 intervention counties and 30 control counties. Data on the health service use, birth outcomes and socio-economic factors from 2001 to 2007 were collected from the programme database and statistical yearbooks. Based on the profile plots of the data, general linear mixed models were used to evaluate the effectiveness of the programme while controlling for the effects of baseline levels of the response variables, change of socio-economic factors over time and correlations among repeated measurements from the same county. Redundant multicollinear variables were deleted from the mixed model using the results of the multicollinearity diagnoses. For each response variable, the best covariance structure was selected from 15 alternatives according to the fit statistics including Akaike information criterion, Finite-population corrected Akaike information criterion, and Schwarz.s Bayesian information criterion. Residual diagnostics were used to validate the model assumptions. Statistical inferences were made to show the effect of the programme on health service use and birth outcomes. A decision analytic model was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the programme, quantify the decision uncertainty, and estimate the expected value of perfect information associated with the decision. The model was used to describe the transitions between health states for women and infants and reflect the change of both costs and health benefits associated with implementing the programme. Result gained from the mixed models and other relevant evidence identified were synthesised appropriately to inform the input parameters of the model. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of the programme were calculated for the two groups of intervention counties over time. Uncertainty surrounding the parameters was dealt with using probabilistic sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty relating to model assumptions was handled using scenario analysis. Finally the expected value of perfect information for both the whole model and individual parameters in the model were estimated to inform priority setting in further research in this area.The annual change rates of the antenatal care rate and the institutionalised delivery rate were improved significantly in the intervention counties after the programme was implemented. Significant improvements were also found in the annual change rates of the maternal mortality ratio, the infant mortality rate, the incidence rate of neonatal tetanus and the mortality rate of neonatal tetanus in the intervention counties after the implementation of the programme. The annual change rate of the neonatal mortality rate was also improved, although the improvement was only close to statistical significance. The influences of the socio-economic factors on the health service use indicators and birth outcomes were identified. The rural income per capita had a significant positive impact on the health service use indicators, and a significant negative impact on the birth outcomes. The number of beds in healthcare institutions per 1,000 population and the number of rural telephone subscribers per 1,000 were found to be positively significantly related to the institutionalised delivery rate. The length of highway per square kilometre negatively influenced the maternal mortality ratio. The percentage of employed persons in the primary industry had a significant negative impact on the institutionalised delivery rate, and a significant positive impact on the infant mortality rate and neonatal mortality rate. The incremental costs of implementing the programme over the existing practice were US $11.1 million from the societal perspective, and US $13.8 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. Overall, 28,711 life years were generated by the programme, producing an overall incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US $386 from the societal perspective, and US $480 from the perspective of the Ministry of Health, both of which were below the threshold willingness-to-pay ratio of US $675. The expected net monetary benefit generated by the programme was US $8.3 million from the societal perspective, and US $5.5 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. The overall probability that the programme was cost-effective was 0.93 and 0.89 from the two perspectives, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the programme was insensitive to the different estimates of the three parameters relating to the model assumptions. Further research could be conducted to reduce the uncertainty surrounding the decision, in which the upper limit of investment was US $0.6 million from the societal perspective, and US $1.3 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. It is also worthwhile to get a more precise estimate of the improvement of infant mortality rate. The population expected value of perfect information for individual parameters associated with this parameter was US $0.99 million from the societal perspective, and US $1.14 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. The findings from this study have shown that the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme were both effective and cost-effective in increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes in rural areas of Guangxi, China. Therefore, the programme represents a good public health investment and should be adopted and further expanded to an even broader area if possible. This research provides economic evidence to inform efficient decision making in improving maternal and infant health in developing countries.

Identifying the beliefs which predict environmentally friendly behaviour in the Brisbane area : a foundation for informed interventions

A move to more sustainable living can provide immediate and long term health and environmental benefits. The Green Living Study consisted of a mail survey of 1186 South East Queensland residents and an online survey of a further 451 individuals, primarily from South East Queensland, and explored the predictors of environmentally friendly behaviour. This paper explores the underlying beliefs that were found to predict specific environmentally friendly behaviours, such as walking for transport, switching off lights when not in use, switching off unused appliances at the wall and shopping with reusable bags. Beliefs explored included social norms, advantages and disadvantages of performing the behaviours, and issues of control over ones behaviour. The findings showed that people’s environmentally friendly behaviours may be influenced by convenience, saving money and saving face; i.e. is it easy to do, will I be better off, and will I be seen as ‘different’? Understanding the beliefs which directly predict behaviour can help inform public policy and educational initiatives. A number of models for transferring this knowledge into policy and practice will be discussed.

Knowledge-based urban development processes of an emerging knowledge city : Brisbane, Australia

In the global knowledge economy, to attract and retain knowledge-intensive industries and workers, cities produce various development strategies. Such strategising is an important development mechanism for cities to complete their transformation into knowledge cities. This paper discusses the critical connections between knowledge city foundations and integrated knowledge-based urban development strategies, and scrutinises Brisbane’s strategies in attracting and retaining investment and talent. The paper introduces a knowledge-based urban development assessment framework and uses this framework to provide a clearer understanding of Brisbane’s knowledge-based development processes and knowledge city transformation experience. The assessment framework particularly focuses on examining Brisbane’s four development processes, institutional, economic, socio-cultural and urban development, in detail. The findings reveal that although Brisbane is still in early stages of its transformation into a fully-fledged knowledge city, global orientation and achievements of Brisbane in strategising knowledge-based urban development are noteworthy.

Moving towards a knowledge city? Brisbane's experience in knowledge-based urban development

: In the global knowledge economy, knowledge-intensive industries and knowledge workers are extensively seen as the primary factors to improve the welfare and competitiveness of cities. To attract and retain such industries and workers, cities produce knowledge-based urban development strategies, where such strategising is also an important development mechanism for cities and their economies. This paper investigates knowledge-based urban development strategies of Brisbane, Australia that support generation, attraction, and retention of investment and talent. The paper puts forward a clear understanding on the policy frameworks, and relevant applications of Brisbane’s knowledge-based urban development experience in becoming a prosperous knowledge city, and concludes by providing invaluable insights and directions for other cities seeking knowledge-based urban development.

Learning or legitimacy? an exploration of business planning amongst Australian social enterprises

In recent years, the value of business planning for new business ventures and small firms has been the subject of debate amongst entrepreneurship researchers (Brinckmann et al 2010: 24). Drawing on institutional theory, a number of writers suggest that business planning is primarily used to confer symbolic legitimacy on businesses seeking investment and engagement from external stakeholders ( Karlsson & Honig 2009; Zimmerman & Zeitz 2002; Delmar & Shane 2004). In this sense, business planning may not have any significant effects on firm learning, but may be used as evidence of good business operations in order to attract external resources. Meta-evaluation of the available empirical literature contests this proposition, finding that both the symbolic and organisational learning effects of business planning influence small firm performance (Brinckmann et al 2010: 36) While social enterprise – which we define as organisations that exist for a public or community benefit and trade to fulfill their mission - the study of social enterprise is a nascent and pre-paradigmatic area of inquiry (Nicholls 2010). As a consequence, there has been relatively little empirical analysis of the nature or effects of business planning amongst social enterprises (for two exceptions, see exploratory studies by Hynes 2009 and Bull & Crompton 2006). In this paper, we examine business planning practices amongst Australian social enterprises. Drawing on a survey of 365 social enterprises conducted in 2010 and in-depth interviews with 11 social entrepreneurs and managers from eight social enterprises, we find that social enterprises report being more actively engaged in business planning activities than their mainstream business counterparts. Our exploratory research suggests that both legitimacy and learning drive business planning amongst social enterprises, although legitimacy is the stronger driver. Our results also suggest that, as multi-stakeholder businesses led by mission, business planning can serve unique communicative and relational functions for this business type.

Performance evaluation of eight contemporary passive solar homes in subtropical Australia

Subtropical south-east Queensland’s expanding population is expected to lead to a demand for an additional 754,000 dwellings by 2031. A legacy of poor housing design, minimal building regulations, an absence of building performance evaluation and various social and market factors has lead to a high and growing penetration of, and reliance on, air conditioners to provide comfort in this relatively benign climate. This reliance impacts on policy goals to adapt to and mitigate against global warming, electricity infrastructure investment and household resilience. Based on the concept of bioclimatic design, this field study scrutinizes eight non-air conditioned homes to develop a deeper understanding of the role of contemporary passive solar architecture in the delivery of thermally comfortable and resilient homes in the subtropics. These homes were found to provide inhabitants with an acceptable level of thermal comfort (18-28oC) for 77 – 97% of the year. Family expectations and experiences of comfort, and the various design strategies utilized were compared against the measured performance outcomes. This comparison revealed issues that limited quantification and implementation of design intent and highlighted factors that constrained system optimisation.

Principles of taxation law (4th Edition)

Taxation law can be an incredibly complex subject to absorb, particularly when time is limited. Written specifically for students, Principles of Taxation Law 2011 brings much needed clarity to this area of law. Utilising many methods to make this often daunting subject achievable, particular features of the 2011 edition include: • seven parts: overview and structure, principles of income, deductions and offsets, timing issues, investment and business entities, tax avoidance and administration, and indirect taxes; • clearly structured chapters within those parts grouped under helpful headings; • flowcharts, diagrams and tables, end of chapter practice questions, and case summaries; • an appendix containing all of the up to date and relevant rates; and • the online self-testing component mentor, which provides questions for students of both business and law. Every major aspect of the Australian tax system is covered, with chapters on topics such as goods and services tax, superannuation, offsets, partnerships, capital gains tax, trusts, company tax and tax administration. All chapters have been thoroughly revised. Principles of Taxation Law 2011 is the perfect tool to guide the reader from their initial exposure to the subject to success in taxation law exams. [from publisher's website]

Principles of taxation law 2012

Taxation law can be an incredibly complex subject to absorb, particularly when time is limited. Written specifically for students, Principles of Taxation Law 2012 brings much needed clarity to this area of law. Utilising many methods to make this often daunting subject achievable, particular features of the 2012 edition include: * seven parts: overview and structure, principles of income, deductions and offsets, timing issues, investment and business entities, tax avoidance and administration, and indirect taxes; * clearly structured chapters within those parts grouped under helpful headings; * flowcharts, diagrams and tables, end of chapter practice questions, and case summaries; * an appendix containing all of the up to date and relevant rates; and * the online self-testing component mentor, which provides questions for students of both business and law. Every major aspect of the Australian tax system is covered, with chapters on topics such as goods and services tax, superannuation, offsets, partnerships, capital gains tax, trusts, company tax and tax administration. All chapters have been thoroughly revised. Principles of Taxation Law 2012 is the perfect tool to guide the reader from their initial exposure to the subject to success in taxation law exams.

Risky business : managing creative practice postgraduates through HDR programs

In Australia, as elsewhere, universities are being encouraged to grow their postgraduate research candidature base while at the same time there is increasing pressure on resources with which to manage the burgeoning groups. In this environment HDR supervision strategies are seen as increasingly important as research managers seek the best possible ‘fit’ for an applicant: the candidate who will provide a sound return on investment and demonstrate endurance in the pursuit of a timely completion. As research managers know, the admissions process can be a risky business. The process may be tested further in the context of the new models of doctoral cohort supervision that are being discussed in the higher degree research management sector. The focus of this paper is an examination of the results of investigations of two models of postgraduate cohort supervision in the creative arts Master of Arts research program at QUT with a view to identifying attributes that may be useful for the formation of cohort models of supervision in the doctoral area.

Risk control in transmission system expansion planning with wind generators

With the advent of large-scale wind farms and their integration into electrical grids, more uncertainties, constraints and objectives must be considered in power system development. It is therefore necessary to introduce risk-control strategies into the planning of transmission systems connected with wind power generators. This paper presents a probability-based multi-objective model equipped with three risk-control strategies. The model is developed to evaluate and enhance the ability of the transmission system to protect against overload risks when wind power is integrated into the power system. The model involves: (i) defining the uncertainties associated with wind power generators with probability measures and calculating the probabilistic power flow with the combined use of cumulants and Gram-Charlier series; (ii) developing three risk-control strategies by specifying the smallest acceptable non-overload probability for each branch and the whole system, and specifying the non-overload margin for all branches in the whole system; (iii) formulating an overload risk index based on the non-overload probability and the non-overload margin defined; and (iv) developing a multi-objective transmission system expansion planning (TSEP) model with the objective functions composed of transmission investment and the overload risk index. The presented work represents a superior risk-control model for TSEP in terms of security, reliability and economy. The transmission expansion planning model with the three risk-control strategies demonstrates its feasibility in the case study using two typical power systems

Success factors for ICT shared services in the higher education sector

Shared services is a prominent organizational arrangement for organizations, in particular for support functions. The success (or failure) of shared services is a critical concern as the move to shared services can entail large scale investment and involve fundamental organizational change. The Higher Education (HE) sector is particularly well poised to benefit from shared services as there is a need to improve organizational performance and strong potential from sharing. Through a multiple case study of shared services experiences in HE, this study identifies ten important antecedents of shared services success: (1) Understanding of shared services; (2) Organizational environment; (3) Top management support; (4) IT environment; (5) Governance; (6) Process centric view; (7) Implementation strategy; (8) Project management; (9) Change management; and (10) Communication. The study then develops a preliminary model of shared services success that addresses the interdependencies between the success factors. As the first empirical success model for shared services, it provides valuable guidance to practice and future research.

Benchmarking knowledge-based urban development performance : Results from the international comparison of Helsinki

In the era of a global knowledge economy, urban regions that seek to increase their competitive edge, become destinations for talent and investment and provide prosperity and high quality of life to their inhabitants have little chance of achieving these goals without forming effective knowledge-based urban development strategies. The research reported in this paper aims to address the questions of how a knowledge-based urban development performance measurement can be undertaken and the value contribution of such measurement. The paper focuses on the city of Helsinki. This empirical study analytically investigates Helsinki’s performance from the lens of knowledge-based urban development by comparing this urban region with eight international competitors, Boston, San Francisco, Birmingham, Manchester, Melbourne, Sydney, Toronto, and Vancouver. The results of the study not only reveal a clearer understanding of Helsinki’s benchmarked performance and competitive edge considering the regional policy context along with strategic directions in strengthening its international standing and competitiveness but also provide useful insights for other urban regions that aspire to such development.