Using Bayesian networks to model surveillance in complex plant and animal health systems

In this chapter we consider biosecurity surveillance as part of a complex system comprising many different biological, environmental and human factors and their interactions. Modelling and analysis of surveillance strategies should take into account these complexities, and also facilitate the use and integration of the many types of different information that can provide insight into the system as a whole. After a brief discussion of a range of options, we focus on Bayesian networks for representing such complex systems. We summarize the features of Bayesian networks and describe these in the context of surveillance.

If dung beetles (Scarabaeidae: Scarabaeinae) arose in association with dinosaurs, did they also suffer a mass co-extinction at the K-Pg boundary?

The evolutionary success of beetles and numerous other terrestrial insects is generally attributed to co-radiation with flowering plants but most studies have focused on herbivorous or pollinating insects. Non-herbivores represent a significant proportion of beetle diversity yet potential factors that influence their diversification have been largely unexamined. In the present study, we examine the factors driving diversification within the Scarabaeidae, a speciose beetle family with a range of both herbivorous and non-herbivorous ecologies. In particular, it has been long debated whether the key event in the evolution of dung beetles (Scarabaeidae: Scarabaeinae) was an adaptation to feeding on dinosaur or mammalian dung. Here we present molecular evidence to show that the origin of dung beetles occurred in the middle of the Cretaceous, likely in association with dinosaur dung, but more surprisingly the timing is consistent with the rise of the angiosperms. We hypothesize that the switch in dinosaur diet to incorporate more nutritious and less fibrous angiosperm foliage provided a palatable dung source that ultimately created a new niche for diversification. Given the well-accepted mass extinction of non-avian dinosaurs at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary, we examine a potential co-extinction of dung beetles due to the loss of an important evolutionary resource, i.e., dinosaur dung. The biogeography of dung beetles is also examined to explore the previously proposed "out of Africa" hypothesis. Given the inferred age of Scarabaeinae as originating in the Lower Cretaceous, the major radiation of dung feeders prior to the Cenomanian, and the early divergence of both African and Gondwanan lineages, we hypothesise that that faunal exchange between Africa and Gondwanaland occurred during the earliest evolution of the Scarabaeinae. Therefore we propose that both Gondwanan vicariance and dispersal of African lineages is responsible for present day distribution of scarabaeine dung beetles and provide examples.

Warfare in stingless bees

Bees are well known for being industrious pollinators. Some species, however, have taken to invading the nests of other colonies to steal food, nest material or the nest site itself. Despite the potential mortality costs due to fighting with an aggressive opponent, the prospects of a large bounty can be worth the risk. In this review, we aim to bring together current knowledge on intercolony fighting with a view to better understand the evolution of warfare in bees and identify avenues for future research. A review of literature reveals that at least 60 species of stingless bees are involved in heterospecific conflicts, either as attacking or victim colonies. The threat of invasion has led to the evolution of architectural, behavioural and morphological adaptations, such as narrow entrance tunnels, mud balls to block the entrance, decoy nests that direct invaders away from the brood chamber, fighting swarms, and soldiers that are skilled at immobilising attackers. Little is known about how victim colonies are selected, but a phylogenetically controlled analysis suggests that the notorious robber bee Lestrimelitta preferentially attacks colonies of species with more concentrated honey. Warfare among bees poses many interesting questions, including why species differ so greatly in their response to attacks and how these alternative strategies of obtaining food or new nest sites have evolved.