The economics of the FIFA Football World Cup

The expansion of economics to ‘non-market topics’ has received increased attention in recent years. The economics of sports (football) is such a sub-field. This paper reports empirical evidence of team and referee performances in the FIFA World Cup 2002. The results reveal that being a hosting nation has a significant impact on the probability of winning a game. Furthermore, the strength of a team measured with the FIFA World Ranking does not play the important role presumed, which indicates that the element of uncertainty is working. The findings also indicate that the influence of a referee on the game result should not be neglected. Finally, the previous World Cup experiences seem to have the strongest impact on referees' performances during the game.

Land Use & Public Transport Accessibility Index (LUPTAI) tool : the development and pilot application of LUPTAI for the Gold Coast

LUPTAI is a decision-aiding tool to enable local and state governments to optimise land use and transport integration. In contrast to mobility between land uses (typically via road), accessibility represents opportunity and choice to reach common land use destinations by public transport and/or walking. LUPTAI uses a GIS-based methodology to quantify and map accessibility to common land use destinations by walking and/or public transport. The tool can be applied to small or large study areas. It can be applied to the current situation in a study area or to future scenarios (such as scenarios involving changes to public transport services, public transport corridors or stations, population density or land use). The tool has been piloted on the Gold Coast and the results are encouraging. This paper outlines the GIS-based methodology and the findings related to this pilot study. The paper demonstrates benefits and possible application of LUPTAI to other urbanised local government areas in Queensland. It also discusses how this accessibility indexing approach could be developed into a decision-support tool to assist local and state government agencies in a range of transport and land-use planning activities.

Economics of non-market innovation and digital literacy

This article is an abbreviated version of a debate between two economists holding somewhat different perspectives on the nature of non-market production in the space of new digital media. While the ostensible focus here is on the role of markets in the innovation of new technologies to create new economic value, this context also serves to highlight the private and public value of digital literacy.

The relationship between implied and realized volatility : evidence from the Australian stock index option market

This paper examines the relationship between the volatility implied in option prices and the subsequently realized volatility by using the S&P/ASX 200 index options (XJO) traded on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) during a period of 5 years. Unlike stock index options such as the S&P 100 index options in the US market, the S&P/ASX 200 index options are traded infrequently and in low volumes, and have a long maturity cycle. Thus an errors-in-variables problem for measurement of implied volatility is more likely to exist. After accounting for this problem by instrumental variable method, it is found that both call and put implied volatilities are superior to historical volatility in forecasting future realized volatility. Moreover, implied call volatility is nearly an unbiased forecast of future volatility.

Modelling the process of learning in economics

Student learning research literature has shown that students' learning approaches are influenced by the learning context (Evans, Kirby, & Fabrigar, 2003). Of the many contextual factors, assessment has been found to have the most important influence on the way students go about learning. For example, assessment that is perceived to required a low level of cognitive abilities will more likely elicit a learning approach that concentrate on reproductive learning activities. Moreover, assessment demand will also interact with learning approach to determine academic performance. In this paper an assessment specific model of learning comprising presage, process and product variables (Biggs, 2001) was proposed and tested against data obtained from a sample of introductory economics students (n=434). The model developed was used to empirically investigate the influence of learning inputs and learning approaches on academic performances across assessment types (essay assignment, multiple choice question exam and exam essay). By including learning approaches in the learning model, the mechanism through which learning inputs determine academic performance was examined. Methodological limitations of the study will also be discussed.

An instrument to measure the approach to learning for assessment in economics

Economics education research studies conducted in the UK, USA and Australia to investigate the effects of learning inputs on academic performance have been dominated by the input-output model (Shanahan and Meyer, 2001). In the Student Experience of Learning framework, however, the link between learning inputs and outputs is mediated by students' learning approaches which in turn are influenced by their perceptions of the learning contexts (Evans, Kirby, & Fabrigar, 2003). Many learning inventories such as Biggs' Study Process Questionnaires and Entwistle and Ramsden' Approaches to Study Inventory have been designed to measure approaches to academic learning. However, there is a limitation to using generalised learning inventories in that they tend to aggregate different learning approaches utilised in different assessments. As a result, important relationships between learning approaches and learning outcomes that exist in specific assessment context(s) will be missed (Lizzio, Wilson, & Simons, 2002). This paper documents the construction of an assessment specific instrument to measure learning approaches in economics. The post-dictive validity of the instrument was evaluated by examining the association of learning approaches to students' perceived assessment demand in different assessment contexts.

Teaching the economic way of thinking : a new approach to teaching introductory economics in a business degree

In teaching introductory economics there has been a tendency to put a lot of emphasis on imparting abstract models and technical skills to students (Stilwell, 2005; Voss, Blais, Greens, & Ahwesh, 1986). This model building approach has the merit of preparing the grounding for students 10 pursue further studies in economics. However, in a business degree with only a small proportion of students majoring in economics, such an approach tend to alienate the majority of students transiting from high school in to university. Surveys in Europe and Australia found that students complained about the lack of relevance of economics courses to the real world and the over-reliance of abstract mathematical modelling (Kirman, 2001; Lewis and Norris, 1997; Siegfried & Round, 2000). BSB112 Economics 1 is one of the eight faculty core units in the Faculty of Business at QUT, with over 1000 students in each semester. In semester I 2008, a new approach to teaching this unit was designed aiming to achieve three inter-related objectives: (1) to provide business students with a first insight into economic thinking and language, (2) to integrate economic analysis with current Australian social, environmental and political issues, and (3) to cater for students with a wide range of academic needs. Strategies used to achieve these objectives included writing up a new text which departs from traditional economics textbooks in important ways, integrating students' cultures in teaching and learning activities, and devising a new assessment format to encourage development of research skills and applications rather than reproduction of factual knowledge. This paper will document the strategies used in this teaching innovation, present quantitative and qualitative evidence to evaluate this new approach and suggest ways of further improvement.

The economics of credence goods: An experimental investigation of the role of verifiability, liability, competition and reputation in credence goods markets

Credence goods markets are characterized by asymmetric information between sellers and consumers that may give rise to inefficiencies, such as under- and overtreatment or market break-down. We study in a large experiment with 936 participants the determinants for efficiency in credence goods markets. While theory predicts that either liability or verifiability yields efficiency, we find that liability has a crucial, but verifiability only a minor effect. Allowing sellers to build up reputation has little influence, as predicted. Seller competition drives down prices and yields maximal trade, but does not lead to higher efficiency as long as liability is violated.

Learning approach and perception of learning context in economics education : a causality test

In the study of student learning literature, the traditional view holds that when students are faced with heavy workload, poor teaching, and content that they cannot relate to – important aspects of the learning context, they will more likely utilise the surface approach to learning due to stresses, lack of understanding and lack of perceived relevance of the content (Kreber, 2003; Lizzio, Wilson, & Simons, 2002; Ramdsen, 1989; Ramsden, 1992; Trigwell & Prosser, 1991; Vermunt, 2005). For example, in studies involving health and medical sciences students, courses that utilised student-centred, problem-based approaches to teaching and learning were found to elicit a deeper approach to learning than the teacher-centred, transmissive approach (Patel, Groen, & Norman, 1991; Sadlo & Richardson, 2003). It is generally accepted that the line of causation runs from the learning context (or rather students’ self reported data on the learning context) to students’ learning approaches. That is, it is the learning context as revealed by students’ self-reported data that elicit the associated learning behaviour. However, other research studies also found that the same teaching and learning environment can be perceived differently by different students. In a study of students’ perceptions of assessment requirements, Sambell and McDowell (1998) found that students “are active in the reconstruction of the messages and meanings of assessment” (p. 391), and their interpretations are greatly influenced by their past experiences and motivations. In a qualitative study of Hong Kong tertiary students, Kember (2004) found that students using the surface learning approach reported heavier workload than students using the deep learning approach. According to Kember if students learn by extracting meanings from the content and making connections, they will more likely see the higher order intentions embodied in the content and the high cognitive abilities being assessed. On the other hand, if they rote-learn for the graded task, they fail to see the hierarchical relationship in the content and to connect the information. These rote-learners will tend to see the assessment as requiring memorising and regurgitation of a large amount of unconnected knowledge, which explains why they experience a high workload. Kember (2004) thus postulate that it is the learning approach that influences how students perceive workload. Campbell and her colleagues made a similar observation in their interview study of secondary students’ perceptions of teaching in the same classroom (Campbell et al., 2001). The above discussions suggest that students’ learning approaches can influence their perceptions of assessment demands and other aspects of the learning context such as relevance of content and teaching effectiveness. In other words, perceptions of elements in the teaching and learning context are endogenously determined. This study attempted to investigate the causal relationships at the individual level between learning approaches and perceptions of the learning context in economics education. In this study, students’ learning approaches and their perceptions of the learning context were measured. The elements of the learning context investigated include: teaching effectiveness, workload and content. The authors are aware of existence of other elements of the learning context, such as generic skills, goal clarity and career preparation. These aspects, however, were not within the scope of this present study and were therefore not investigated.

The land use and public transport accessibility index : phase two final report

The Urban Research Program (URP) was established in 2003 as strategic research and community engagement initiative of Griffith University. The strategic foci of the Urban Research Program are research and advocacy in an urban regional context. The Urban Research Program seeks to improve understanding of, and develop innovative responses to Australia's urban challenges and opportunities by providing training assistance. The authors aim to make the results of their research and advocacy work available as freely and widely as possible.

Responding to sustainability challenge and cost implications in highway construction projects

Highway construction often requires a significant capital input; therefore it often causes serious financial implications for developers, owners and operators. The recent industry-wide focus on sustainability has added a new dimension to the evaluation of highway projects, particularly on the economical scale of ‘going green’. Comprehensive analysis of the whole-of-life highway development that responds to sustainability challenges is one of the primary concerns for stakeholders. Principles of engineering economics and life cycle costing have been used to determine the incremental capacity investments for highway projects. However, the consideration of costs and issues associated with sustainability is still very limited in current studies on highway projects. Previous studies have identified that highway project investments are primarily concerned with direct market costs that can be quantified through life cycle costing analysis (LCCA). But they tend to ignore costs that are difficult to calculate, as those related to environmental and social elements. On a more positive note, these studies proved that the inclusion of such costs is an essential part of the overall development investment and a primary concern for decision making by the stakeholders. This paper discusses a research attempt to identify and categorise sustainability cost elements for highway projects. Through questionnaire survey, a set of sustainability cost elements on highway projects has been proposed. These cost elements are incorporated into the extension of some of the existing Life Cycle Costing Analysis (LCCA) models in order to produce a holistic financial picture of the highway project. It is expected that a new LCCA model will be established to serve as a suitable tool for decision making for highway project stakeholders.

Dengue fever and el nino-southern oscillation in Queensland, Australia : a time series predictive model

Background It remains unclear over whether it is possible to develop an epidemic forecasting model for transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia. Objectives To examine the potential impact of El Niño/Southern Oscillation on the transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia and explore the possibility of developing a forecast model of dengue fever. Methods Data on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), an indicator of El Niño/Southern Oscillation activity, were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Numbers of dengue fever cases notified and the numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases between January 1993 and December 2005 were obtained from the Queensland Health and relevant population data were obtained from the Australia Bureau of Statistics. A multivariate Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model was developed and validated by dividing the data file into two datasets: the data from January 1993 to December 2003 were used to construct a model and those from January 2004 to December 2005 were used to validate it. Results A decrease in the average SOI (ie, warmer conditions) during the preceding 3–12 months was significantly associated with an increase in the monthly numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases (β=−0.038; p = 0.019). Predicted values from the Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model were consistent with the observed values in the validation dataset (root-mean-square percentage error: 1.93%). Conclusions Climate variability is directly and/or indirectly associated with dengue transmission and the development of an SOI-based epidemic forecasting system is possible for dengue fever in Queensland, Australia.

Telephone reliability of the Frenchay Activity Index and EQ-5D amongst older adults

Background Older adults may find it problematic to attend hospital appointments due to the difficulty associated with travelling to, within and from a hospital facility for the purpose of a face-to-face assessment. This study aims to investigate equivalence between telephone and face-to-face administration for the Frenchay Activities Index (FAI) and the Euroqol-5D (EQ-5D) generic health-related quality of life instrument amongst an older adult population. Methods Patients aged >65 (n = 53) who had been discharged to the community following an acute hospital admission underwent telephone administration of the FAI and EQ-5D instruments seven days prior to attending a hospital outpatient appointment where they completed a face-to-face administration of these instruments. Results Overall, 40 subjects' datasets were complete for both assessments and included in analysis. The FAI items had high levels of agreement between the two modes of administration (item kappa's ranged 0.73 to 1.00) as did the EQ-5D (item kappa's ranged 0.67–0.83). For the FAI, EQ-5D VAS and EQ-5D utility score, intraclass correlation coefficients were 0.94, 0.58 and 0.82 respectively with paired t-tests indicating no significant systematic difference (p = 0.100, p = 0.690 and p = 0.290 respectively). Conclusion Telephone administration of the FAI and EQ-5D instruments provides comparable results to face-to-face administration amongst older adults deemed to have cognitive functioning intact at a basic level, indicating that this is a suitable alternate approach for collection of this information.

Validating the functional capacity index : a comparison of predicted versus observed total body scores

Background: The Functional Capacity Index (FCI) was designed to predict physical function 12 months after injury. We report a validation study of the FCI. Methods: This was a consecutive case series registered in the Queensland Trauma Registry who consented to the prospective 12-month telephone-administered follow-up study. FCI scores measured at 12 months were compared with those originally predicted. Results: Complete Abbreviated Injury Scale score information was available for 617 individuals, of whom 587 (95%) could be assigned at least one FCI score (range, 1-17). Agreement between the largest predicted FCI and observed FCI score was poor ([kappa] = 0.05; 95% confidence interval, 0.00-0.10) and explained only 1% of the variability in observed FCI. Using an encompassing model that included all FCI assignments, agreement remained poor ([kappa] = 0.05; 95% confidence interval, -0.02-0.12), and the model explained only 9% of the variability in observed FCI. Conclusion: The predicted functional capacity poorly agrees with actual functional outcomes. Further research should consider including other (noninjury) explanatory factors in predicting FCI at 12 months.

Isaac's Numbers

Short story published in the Queensland University of Technology Student Anthology, Isaac’s Numbers: New Writing from QUT, 2008.