Discrete choice modelling of combined mode and departure time

Typical daily decision-making process of individuals regarding use of transport system involves mainly three types of decisions: mode choice, departure time choice and route choice. This paper focuses on the mode and departure time choice processes and studies different model specifications for a combined mode and departure time choice model. The paper compares different sets of explanatory variables as well as different model structures to capture the correlation among alternatives and taste variations among the commuters. The main hypothesis tested in this paper is that departure time alternatives are also correlated by the amount of delay. Correlation among different alternatives is confirmed by analyzing different nesting structures as well as error component formulations. Random coefficient logit models confirm the presence of the random taste heterogeneity across commuters. Mixed nested logit models are estimated to jointly account for the random taste heterogeneity and the correlation among different alternatives. Results indicate that accounting for the random taste heterogeneity as well as inter-alternative correlation improves the model performance.

Validation of FHWA crash models for rural intersections - Lessons learned

A national-level safety analysis tool is needed to complement existing analytical tools for assessment of the safety impacts of roadway design alternatives. FHWA has sponsored the development of the Interactive Highway Safety Design Model (IHSDM), which is roadway design and redesign software that estimates the safety effects of alternative designs. Considering the importance of IHSDM in shaping the future of safety-related transportation investment decisions, FHWA justifiably sponsored research with the sole intent of independently validating some of the statistical models and algorithms in IHSDM. Statistical model validation aims to accomplish many important tasks, including (a) assessment of the logical defensibility of proposed models, (b) assessment of the transferability of models over future time periods and across different geographic locations, and (c) identification of areas in which future model improvements should be made. These three activities are reported for five proposed types of rural intersection crash prediction models. The internal validation of the model revealed that the crash models potentially suffer from omitted variables that affect safety, site selection and countermeasure selection bias, poorly measured and surrogate variables, and misspecification of model functional forms. The external validation indicated the inability of models to perform on par with model estimation performance. Recommendations for improving the state of the practice from this research include the systematic conduct of carefully designed before-and-after studies, improvements in data standardization and collection practices, and the development of analytical methods to combine the results of before-and-after studies with cross-sectional studies in a meaningful and useful way.

Bayesian multinomial logit: Theory and route choice example

Statisticians along with other scientists have made significant computational advances that enable the estimation of formerly complex statistical models. The Bayesian inference framework combined with Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation methods such as the Gibbs sampler enable the estimation of discrete choice models such as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. MNL models are frequently applied in transportation research to model choice outcomes such as mode, destination, or route choices or to model categorical outcomes such as crash outcomes. Recent developments allow for the modification of the potentially limiting assumptions of MNL such as the independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property. However, relatively little transportation-related research has focused on Bayesian MNL models, the tractability of which is of great value to researchers and practitioners alike. This paper addresses MNL model specification issues in the Bayesian framework, such as the value of including prior information on parameters, allowing for nonlinear covariate effects, and extensions to random parameter models, so changing the usual limiting IIA assumption. This paper also provides an example that demonstrates, using route-choice data, the considerable potential of the Bayesian MNL approach with many transportation applications. This paper then concludes with a discussion of the pros and cons of this Bayesian approach and identifies when its application is worthwhile

Sustainable infrastructure project planning : progress in contemporary decision support tools

Most infrastructure project developments are complex in nature, particularly in the planning phase. During this stage, many vague alternatives are tabled - from the strategic to operational level. Human judgement and decision making are characterised by biases, errors and the use of heuristics. These factors are intangible and hard to measure because they are subjective and qualitative in nature. The problem with human judgement becomes more complex when a group of people are involved. The variety of different stakeholders may cause conflict due to differences in personal judgements. Hence, the available alternatives increase the complexities of the decision making process. Therefore, it is desirable to find ways of enhancing the efficiency of decision making to avoid misunderstandings and conflict within organisations. As a result, numerous attempts have been made to solve problems in this area by leveraging technologies such as decision support systems. However, most construction project management decision support systems only concentrate on model development and neglect fundamentals of computing such as requirement engineering, data communication, data management and human centred computing. Thus, decision support systems are complicated and are less efficient in supporting the decision making of project team members. It is desirable for decision support systems to be simpler, to provide a better collaborative platform, to allow for efficient data manipulation, and to adequately reflect user needs. In this chapter, a framework for a more desirable decision support system environment is presented. Some key issues related to decision support system implementation are also described.

The conflict resolution in connected railway junctions

Purpose of study: Traffic conflicts occur when trains on different routes approach a converging junction in a railway network at the same time. To prevent collisions, a right-of-way assignment is needed to control the order in which the trains should pass the junction. Such control action inevitably requires the braking and/or stopping of trains, which lengthens their travelling times and leads to delays. Train delays cause a loss of punctuality and hence directly affect the quality of service. It is therefore important to minimise the delays by devising a suitable right-of-way assignment. One of the major difficulties in attaining the optimal right-of-way assignment is that the number of feasible assignments increases dramatically with the number of trains. Connected-junctions further complicate the problem. Exhaustive search for the optimal solution is time-consuming and infeasible for area control (multi-junction). Even with the more intelligent deterministic optimisation method revealed in [1], the computation demand is still considerable, which hinders real-time control. In practice, as suggested in [2], the optimality may be traded off by shorter computation time, and heuristic searches provide alternatives for this optimisation problem.

Patterns, heuristics for architectural design support: making use of evolutionary modelling in design

Software used by architectural and industrial designers – has moved from becoming a tool for drafting, towards use in verification, simulation, project management and project sharing remotely. In more advanced models, parameters for the designed object can be adjusted so a family of variations can be produced rapidly. With advances in computer aided design technology, numerous design options can now be generated and analyzed in real time. However the use of digital tools to support design as an activity is still at an early stage and has largely been limited in functionality with regard to the design process. To date, major CAD vendors have not developed an integrated tool that is able to both leverage specialized design knowledge from various discipline domains (known as expert knowledge systems) and support the creation of design alternatives that satisfy different forms of constraints. We propose that evolutionary computing and machine learning be linked with parametric design techniques to record and respond to a designer’s own way of working and design history. It is expected that this will lead to results that impact on future work on design support systems-(ergonomics and interface) as well as implicit constraint and problem definition for problems that are difficult to quantify.

Integrating SOA into an Enterprise Architecture : a comparative analysis of alternative approaches

Enterprise Architectures have emerged as comprehensive corporate artefacts that provide structure to the plethora of conceptual views on an enterprise. The recent popularity of a service-oriented design of organizations has added service and related constructs as a new element that requires consideration within an Enterprise Architecture. This paper analyzes and compares the existing proposals for how to best integrate services into Enterprise Architectures. It uses the popular Zachman Framework as an example and differentiates the existing integration alternatives. This research can be generalized beyond service integration into an investigation onto how to possibly extend Enterprise Architectures with emerging constructs.

Sustainable water provision : challenges, alternative strategies and sources in the era of climate change

As a result of rapid urbanisation, population growth, changes in lifestyle, pollution and the impacts of climate change, water provision has become a critical challenge for planners and policy-makers. In the wake of increasingly difficult water provision and drought, the notion that freshwater is a finite and vulnerable resource is increasingly being realised. Many city administrations around the world are struggling to provide water security for their residents to maintain lifestyle and economic growth. This chapter reviews the global challenge of providing freshwater to sustain lifestyles and economic growth, and the contributing challenges of climate change, urbanisation, population growth and problems in rainfall distribution. The chapter proceeds to evaluate major alternatives to current water sources such as conservation, recycling and reclamation, and desalination. Integrated water resource management is briefly looked at to explore its role in complementing water provision. A comparative study on alternative resources is undertaken to evaluate their strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and constraints, and the results are discussed.

A three year outcome evaluation of a theory based drink driving education program

This study reports on the impact of a "drink driving education program" taught to grade ten high school students. The program which involves twelve lessons uses strategies based on the Ajzen and Madden theory of planned behavior. Students were trained to use alternatives to drink driving and passenger behaviors. One thousand seven hundred and seventy-four students who had been taught the program in randomly assigned control and intervention schools were followed up three years later. There had been a major reduction in drink driving behaviors in both intervention and control students. In addition to this cohort change there was a trend toward reduced drink driving in the intervention group and a significant reduction in passenger behavior in this group. Readiness to use alternatives suggested that the major impact of the program was on students who were experimenting with the behavior at the time the program was taught. The program seems to have optimized concurrent social attitude and behavior change.

Development of a 3-dimensional human skin equivalent wound model for investigating novel wound healing therapies

Numerous difficulties are associated with the conduct of preclinical studies related to skin and wound repair. Use of small animal models such as rodents is not optimal because of their physiological differences to human skin and mode of wound healing. Although pigs have previously been used because of their human-like mode of healing, the expense and logistics related to their use also renders them suboptimal. In view of this, alternatives are urgently required to advance the field. The experiments reported herein were aimed at developing and validating a simple, reproducible, three-dimensional ex vivo de-epidermised dermis human skin equivalent wound model for the preclinical evaluation of novel wound therapies. Having established that the human skin equivalent wound model does in fact “heal," we tested the effect of two novel wound healing therapies. We also examined the utility of the model for studies exploring the mechanisms underpinning these therapies. Taken together the data demonstrate that these new models will have wide-spread application for the generation of fundamental new information on wound healing processes and also hold potential in facilitating preclinical optimization of dosage, duration of therapies, and treatment strategies prior to clinical trials.

Last shall be first : a field study of biases in sequential performance evaluation on the Idol series

When performances are evaluated they are very often presented in a sequential order. Previous research suggests that the sequential presentation of alternatives may induce systematic biases in the way performances are evaluated. Such a phenomenon has been scarcely studied in economics. Using a large dataset of performance evaluation in the Idol series (N=1522), this paper presents new evidence about the systematic biases in sequential evaluation of performances and the psychological phenomena at the origin of these biases.

Information dependencies between architects and services engineers for early design evaluation : a framework for an energy design tool for architects

Effective strategies for the design of effi cient and environmentally sensitive buildings require a close collaboration between architects and engineers in the design of the building shell and environmental control systems at the outset of projects. However, it is often not practical for engineers to be involved early on in the design process. It is therefore essential that architects be able to perform preliminary energy analyses to evaluate their proposed designs prior to the major building characteristics becoming fi xed. Subsequently, a need exists for a simplifi ed energy design tool for architects. This paper discusses the limitations of existing analysis software in supporting early design explorations and proposes a framework for the development of a tool that provides decision support by permitting architects to quickly assess the performance of design alternatives.

Automated error correction of business process models

As order dependencies between process tasks can get complex, it is easy to make mistakes in process model design, especially behavioral ones such as deadlocks. Notions such as soundness formalize behavioral errors and tools exist that can identify such errors. However these tools do not provide assistance with the correction of the process models. Error correction can be very challenging as the intentions of the process modeler are not known and there may be many ways in which an error can be corrected. We present a novel technique for automatic error correction in process models based on simulated annealing. Via this technique a number of process model alternatives are identified that resolve one or more errors in the original model. The technique is implemented and validated on a sample of industrial process models. The tests show that at least one sound solution can be found for each input model and that the response times are short.

Parents’ risky choices around the IB Diploma

In recent years there has been a rapid growth in the International Baccalaureate Diploma(IBD), a secondary curriculum administered by the International Baccalaureate Organisation(IBO), as an alternative to the local curriculum in Australian schools in some schools. This growth is indicative of an increasing demand from Australian families for new educational structures, practices and processes. With more curriculum options and pathways such as the IBD available in the secondary education system, parents are faced with a more complex high stakes decision when it comes to choosing the optimal education path for their offspring, one which requires a careful assessment of potential outcomes and risks. This paper reports on the responses of 184 parents to an online survey conducted in 26 Australian schools that offer the IBD as a curricular alternative. It examines which parents either chose, or chose not to, enrol their children in the program, why, and what risks they perceived to be associated with that choice. The paper will compare the choice behaviour of the two groups of parents from a sociological perspective, framing the enquiry with reference to globalisation and neo-liberal education policy and its effect on parental choice of schooling. This paper will make evident how parental choice of educational alternatives has become a more complicated process for Australian families.

Alternative futures of globalisation a socio-ecological study of the world social forum process

Inspired by the initial World Social Forum in Porto Alegre Brazil, over the past decade over 200 local and regional social forums have been held, on five continents. This study has examined the nature of this broader social forum process, in particular as an aspect of the movement for 'another globalisation'. I discuss both the discourses for 'another world', as well as the development of an Alternative Globalisation Movement. As an action research study, the research took place within a variety of groups and networks. The thesis provides six accounts of groups and people striving and struggling for 'another world'. I provide a macro account of the invention and innovation of the World Social Forum. A grassroots film-makers collective provides a window into media. A local social forum opens up the radical diversity of actors. An activist exchange circle sheds light on strategic aspects of alternative globalisation. An educational initiative provides a window into transformations in pedagogy. And a situational account (of the G20 meeting in Melbourne in 2006) provides an overview of the variety of metanetworks that converge to voice demands for global justice and sustainability. In particular, this study has sought to shed light on how, within this process, groups and communities develop 'agency', a capacity to respond to the global challenges they / we face. And as part of this question, I have also explored how alternatives futures are developed and conceived, with a re-cognition of the importance of histories and geo-political (or 'eco-political') structures as contexts. I argue the World Social Forum Process is prefigurative, as an interactional process where many social alternatives are conceived, supported, developed and innovated into the world. And I argue this innovation process is meta-formative, where convergences of diverse actors comprise ‘social ecologies of alternatives’ which lead to opportunities for dynamic collaboration and partnership.