A Bayesian latent class safety performance function for identifying motor vehicle crash blackspots

The current state of the practice in Blackspot Identification (BSI) utilizes safety performance functions based on total crash counts to identify transport system sites with potentially high crash risk. This paper postulates that total crash count variation over a transport network is a result of multiple distinct crash generating processes including geometric characteristics of the road, spatial features of the surrounding environment, and driver behaviour factors. However, these multiple sources are ignored in current modelling methodologies in both trying to explain or predict crash frequencies across sites. Instead, current practice employs models that imply that a single underlying crash generating process exists. The model mis-specification may lead to correlating crashes with the incorrect sources of contributing factors (e.g. concluding a crash is predominately caused by a geometric feature when it is a behavioural issue), which may ultimately lead to inefficient use of public funds and misidentification of true blackspots. This study aims to propose a latent class model consistent with a multiple crash process theory, and to investigate the influence this model has on correctly identifying crash blackspots. We first present the theoretical and corresponding methodological approach in which a Bayesian Latent Class (BLC) model is estimated assuming that crashes arise from two distinct risk generating processes including engineering and unobserved spatial factors. The Bayesian model is used to incorporate prior information about the contribution of each underlying process to the total crash count. The methodology is applied to the state-controlled roads in Queensland, Australia and the results are compared to an Empirical Bayesian Negative Binomial (EB-NB) model. A comparison of goodness of fit measures illustrates significantly improved performance of the proposed model compared to the NB model. The detection of blackspots was also improved when compared to the EB-NB model. In addition, modelling crashes as the result of two fundamentally separate underlying processes reveals more detailed information about unobserved crash causes.

Identification methods of key contributing factors in crashes with high numbers of fatalities and injuries in China

Objectives In China, “serious road traffic crashes” (SRTCs) are those in which there are 10-30 fatalities, 50-100 serious injuries or a total cost of 50-100 million RMB ($US8-16m), and “particularly serious road traffic crashes” (PSRTCs) are those which are more severe or costly. Due to the large number of fatalities and injuries as well as the negative public reaction they elicit, SRTCs and PSRTCs have become great concerns to China during recent years. The aim of this study is to identify the main factors contributing to these road traffic crashes and to propose preventive measures to reduce their number. Methods 49 contributing factors of the SRTCs and PSRTCs that occurred from 2007 to 2013 were collected from the database “In-depth Investigation and Analysis System for Major Road traffic crashes” (IIASMRTC) and were analyzed through the integrated use of principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering to determine the primary and secondary groups of contributing factors. Results Speeding and overloading of passengers were the primary contributing factors, featuring in up to 66.3% and 32.6% of accidents respectively. Two secondary contributing factors were road-related: lack of or nonstandard roadside safety infrastructure, and slippery roads due to rain, snow or ice. Conclusions The current approach to SRTCs and PSRTCs is focused on the attribution of responsibility and the enforcement of regulations considered relevant to particular SRTCs and PSRTCs. It would be more effective to investigate contributing factors and characteristics of SRTCs and PSRTCs as a whole, to provide adequate information for safety interventions in regions where SRTCs and PSRTCs are more common. In addition to mandating of a driver training program and publicisation of the hazards associated with traffic violations, implementation of speed cameras, speed signs, markings and vehicle-mounted GPS are suggested to reduce speeding of passenger vehicles, while increasing regular checks by traffic police and passenger station staff, and improving transportation management to increase income of contractors and drivers are feasible measures to prevent overloading of people. Other promising measures include regular inspection of roadside safety infrastructure, and improving skid resistance on dangerous road sections in mountainous areas.

The'cave' mineral oxammite: a high resolution thermogravimetry and Raman spectroscopic study

The thermal decomposition of natural ammonium oxalate known as oxammite has been studied using a combination of high resolution thermogravimetry coupled to an evolved gas mass spectrometer and Raman spectroscopy coupled to a thermal stage. Three mass loss steps were found at 57, 175 and 188°C attributed to dehydration, ammonia evolution and carbon dioxide evolution respectively. Raman spectroscopy shows two bands at 3235 and 3030 cm-1 attributed to the OH stretching vibrations and three bands at 2995, 2900 and 2879 cm-1, attributed to the NH vibrational modes. The thermal degradation of oxammite may be followed by the loss of intensity of these bands. No intensity remains in the OH stretching bands at 100°C and the NH stretching bands show no intensity at 200°C. Multiple CO symmetric stretching bands are observed at 1473, 1454, 1447 and 1431cm-1, suggesting that the mineral oxammite is composed of a mixture of chemicals including ammonium oxalate dihydrate, ammonium oxalate monohydrate and anhydrous ammonium oxalate.

Micropolar flow in a porous channel with high mass transfer

Two dimensional flow of a micropolar fluid in a porous channel is investigated. The flow is driven by suction or injection at the channel walls, and the micropolar model due to Eringen is used to describe the working fluid. An extension of Berman's similarity transform is used to reduce the governing equations to a set of non-linear coupled ordinary differential equations. The latter are solved for large mass transfer via a perturbation analysis where the inverse of the cross-flow Reynolds number is used as the perturbing parameter. Complementary numerical solutions for strong injection are also obtained using a quasilinearisation scheme, and good agreement is observed between the solutions obtained from the perturbation analysis and the computations.

The effect of mechanochemical activation upon the intercalation of a high-defect kaolinite with formamide

The effect of mechanochemical activation upon the intercalation of formamide into a high-defect kaolinite has been studied using a combination of X-ray diffraction, thermal analysis, and DRIFT spectroscopy. X-ray diffraction shows that the intensity of the d(001) spacing decreases with grinding time and that the intercalated high-defect kaolinite expands to 10.2 A. The intensity of the peak of the expanded phase of the formamide-intercalated kaolinite decreases with grinding time. Thermal analysis reveals that the evolution temperature of the adsorbed formamide and loss of the inserting molecule increases with increased grinding time. The temperature of the dehydroxylation of the formamide-intercalated high-defect kaolinite decreases from 495 to 470oC with mechanochemical activation. Changes in the surface structure of the mechanochemically activated formamide-intercalated high-defect kaolinite were followed by DRIFT spectroscopy. Fundamentally the intensity of the high-defect kaolinite hydroxyl stretching bands decreases exponentially with grinding time and simultaneously the intensity of the bands attributed to the OH stretching vibrations of water increased. It is proposed that the mechanochemical activation of the high-defect kaolinite caused the conversion of the hydroxyls to water which coordinates the kaolinite surface. Significant changes in the infrared bands assigned to the hydroxyl deformation and amide stretching and bending modes were observed. The intensity decrease of these bands was exponentially related to the grinding time. The position of the amide C&unknown;O vibrational mode was found to be sensitive to grinding time. The effect of mechanochemical activation of the high-defect kaolinite reduces the capacity of the kaolinite to be intercalated with formamide.