Understanding Uncertainties in Non-Linear Population Trajectories: A Bayesian Semi-Parametric Hierarchical Approach to Large-Scale Surveys of Coral Cover

Recently, attempts to improve decision making in species management have focussed on uncertainties associated with modelling temporal fluctuations in populations. Reducing model uncertainty is challenging; while larger samples improve estimation of species trajectories and reduce statistical errors, they typically amplify variability in observed trajectories. In particular, traditional modelling approaches aimed at estimating population trajectories usually do not account well for nonlinearities and uncertainties associated with multi-scale observations characteristic of large spatio-temporal surveys. We present a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model for simultaneously quantifying uncertainties associated with model structure and parameters, and scale-specific variability over time. We estimate uncertainty across a four-tiered spatial hierarchy of coral cover from the Great Barrier Reef. Coral variability is well described; however, our results show that, in the absence of additional model specifications, conclusions regarding coral trajectories become highly uncertain when considering multiple reefs, suggesting that management should focus more at the scale of individual reefs. The approach presented facilitates the description and estimation of population trajectories and associated uncertainties when variability cannot be attributed to specific causes and origins. We argue that our model can unlock value contained in large-scale datasets, provide guidance for understanding sources of uncertainty, and support better informed decision making

Split leverage : attacking the confidentiality of linked databases by partitioning

This article considers the risk of disclosure in linked databases when statistical analysis of micro-data is permitted. The risk of disclosure needs to be balanced against the utility of the linked data. The current work specifically considers the disclosure risks in permitting regression analysis to be performed on linked data. A new attack based on partitioning of the database is presented.

Hierarchical deterministic Bitcoin wallets that tolerate key leakage (short paper)

A Bitcoin wallet is a set of private keys known to a user and which allow that user to spend any Bitcoin associated with those keys. In a hierarchical deterministic (HD) wallet, child private keys are generated pseudorandomly from a master private key, and the corresponding child public keys can be generated by anyone with knowledge of the master public key. These wallets have several interesting applications including Internet retail, trustless audit, and a treasurer allocating funds among departments. A specification of HD wallets has even been accepted as Bitcoin standard BIP32. Unfortunately, in all existing HD wallets---including BIP32 wallets---an attacker can easily recover the master private key given the master public key and any child private key. This vulnerability precludes use cases such as a combined treasurer-auditor, and some in the Bitcoin community have suspected that this vulnerability cannot be avoided. We propose a new HD wallet that is not subject to this vulnerability. Our HD wallet can tolerate the leakage of up to m private keys with a master public key size of O(m). We prove that breaking our HD wallet is at least as hard as the so-called "one more" discrete logarithm problem.

BPMN Miner: Automated Discovery of BPMN Process Models with Hierarchical Structure

Existing techniques for automated discovery of process models from event logs gen- erally produce flat process models. Thus, they fail to exploit the notion of subprocess as well as error handling and repetition constructs provided by contemporary process modeling notations, such as the Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN). This paper presents a technique for automated discovery of hierarchical BPMN models con- taining interrupting and non-interrupting boundary events and activity markers. The technique employs functional and inclusion dependency discovery techniques in order to elicit a process-subprocess hierarchy from the event log. Given this hierarchy and the projected logs associated to each node in the hierarchy, parent process and subprocess models are then discovered using existing techniques for flat process model discovery. Finally, the resulting models and logs are heuristically analyzed in order to identify boundary events and markers. By employing approximate dependency discovery tech- niques, it is possible to filter out noise in the event log arising for example from data entry errors or missing events. A validation with one synthetic and two real-life logs shows that process models derived by the proposed technique are more accurate and less complex than those derived with flat process discovery techniques. Meanwhile, a validation on a family of synthetically generated logs shows that the technique is resilient to varying levels of noise.

A hierarchical model of social marketing

Purpose This paper aims to set out a new hierarchical and differentiated model of social marketing principles, concepts and techniques that builds on, but supersedes, the existing lists of non-equivalent and undifferentiated benchmark criteria. Design/methodology/approach This is a conceptual paper that proposes a hierarchical model of social marketing principles, concepts and techniques. Findings This new delineation of the social marketing principle, its four core concepts and five techniques, represents a new way to conceptualize and recognize the different elements that constitute social marketing. This new model will help add to and further the development of the theoretical basis of social marketing, building on the definitional work led by the International Social Marketing Association (iSMA), Australian Association of Social Marketing (AASM) and European Social Marketing Association (ESMA). Research limitations/implications This proposed model offers a foundation for future research to expand upon. Further research is recommended to empirically test the proposed model. Originality/value This paper seeks to advance the theoretical base of social marketing by making a reasoned case for the need to differentiate between principles, concepts and techniques when seeking to describe social marketing.

Evaluation of Interconnect Fabrics for an Embedded MPSoC in 28 nm FD-SOI

Embedded many-core architectures contain dozens to hundreds of CPU cores that are connected via a highly scalable NoC interconnect. Our Multiprocessor-System-on-Chip CoreVAMPSoC combines the advantages of tightly coupled bus-based communication with the scalability of NoC approaches by adding a CPU cluster as an additional level of hierarchy. In this work, we analyze different cluster interconnect implementations with 8 to 32 CPUs and compare them in terms of resource requirements and performance to hierarchical NoCs approaches. Using 28nm FD-SOI technology the area requirement for 32 CPUs and AXI crossbar is 5.59mm2 including 23.61% for the interconnect at a clock frequency of 830 MHz. In comparison, a hierarchical MPSoC with 4 CPU cluster and 8 CPUs in each cluster requires only 4.83mm2 including 11.61% for the interconnect. To evaluate the performance, we use a compiler for streaming applications to map programs to the different MPSoC configurations. We use this approach for a design-space exploration to find the most efficient architecture and partitioning for an application.

Hierarchical clustering of the genetic connectivity matrix reveals the network topology of gene action on brain microstructure: An N=531 twin study

Genetic correlation (rg) analysis determines how much of the correlation between two measures is due to common genetic influences. In an analysis of 4 Tesla diffusion tensor images (DTI) from 531 healthy young adult twins and their siblings, we generalized the concept of genetic correlation to determine common genetic influences on white matter integrity, measured by fractional anisotropy (FA), at all points of the brain, yielding an NxN genetic correlation matrix rg(x,y) between FA values at all pairs of voxels in the brain. With hierarchical clustering, we identified brain regions with relatively homogeneous genetic determinants, to boost the power to identify causal single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP). We applied genome-wide association (GWA) to assess associations between 529,497 SNPs and FA in clusters defined by hubs of the clustered genetic correlation matrix. We identified a network of genes, with a scale-free topology, that influences white matter integrity over multiple brain regions.

Hierarchical topological network analysis of anatomical human brain connectivity and differences related to sex and kinship

Modern non-invasive brain imaging technologies, such as diffusion weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DWI), enable the mapping of neural fiber tracts in the white matter, providing a basis to reconstruct a detailed map of brain structural connectivity networks. Brain connectivity networks differ from random networks in their topology, which can be measured using small worldness, modularity, and high-degree nodes (hubs). Still, little is known about how individual differences in structural brain network properties relate to age, sex, or genetic differences. Recently, some groups have reported brain network biomarkers that enable differentiation among individuals, pairs of individuals, and groups of individuals. In addition to studying new topological features, here we provide a unifying general method to investigate topological brain networks and connectivity differences between individuals, pairs of individuals, and groups of individuals at several levels of the data hierarchy, while appropriately controlling false discovery rate (FDR) errors. We apply our new method to a large dataset of high quality brain connectivity networks obtained from High Angular Resolution Diffusion Imaging (HARDI) tractography in 303 young adult twins, siblings, and unrelated people. Our proposed approach can accurately classify brain connectivity networks based on sex (93% accuracy) and kinship (88.5% accuracy). We find statistically significant differences associated with sex and kinship both in the brain connectivity networks and in derived topological metrics, such as the clustering coefficient and the communicability matrix.

Sodium and lithium storage properties of spray-dried molybdenum disulfide-graphene hierarchical microspheres

Developing nano/micro-structures which can effectively upgrade the intriguing properties of electrode materials for energy storage devices is always a key research topic. Ultrathin nanosheets were proved to be one of the potential nanostructures due to their high specific surface area, good active contact areas and porous channels. Herein, we report a unique hierarchical micro-spherical morphology of well-stacked and completely miscible molybdenum disulfide (MoS2) nanosheets and graphene sheets, were successfully synthesized via a simple and industrial scale spray-drying technique to take the advantages of both MoS2 and graphene in terms of their high practical capacity values and high electronic conductivity, respectively. Computational studies were performed to understand the interfacial behaviour of MoS2 and graphene, which proves high stability of the composite with high interfacial binding energy (−2.02 eV) among them. Further, the lithium and sodium storage properties have been tested and reveal excellent cyclic stability over 250 and 500 cycles, respectively, with the highest initial capacity values of 1300 mAh g−1 and 640 mAh g−1 at 0.1 A g−1.

Advanced tissue engineering scaffold design for regeneration of the complex hierarchical periodontal structure

AIM: This study investigated the ability of an osteoconductive biphasic scaffold to simultaneously regenerate alveolar bone, periodontal ligament and cementum. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A biphasic scaffold was built by attaching a fused deposition modelled bone compartment to a melt electrospun periodontal compartment. The bone compartment was coated with a calcium phosphate (CaP) layer for increasing osteoconductivity, seeded with osteoblasts and cultured in vitro for 6 weeks. The resulting constructs were then complemented with the placement of PDL cell sheets on the periodontal compartment, attached to a dentin block and subcutaneously implanted into athymic rats for 8 weeks. Scanning electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction, alkaline phosphatase and DNA content quantification, confocal laser microscopy, micro computerized tomography and histological analysis were employed to evaluate the scaffold's performance. RESULTS: The in vitro study showed that alkaline phosphatase activity was significantly increased in the CaP-coated samples and they also displayed enhanced mineralization. In the in vivo study, significantly more bone formation was observed in the coated scaffolds. Histological analysis revealed that the large pore size of the periodontal compartment permitted vascularization of the cell sheets, and periodontal attachment was achieved at the dentin interface. CONCLUSIONS: This work demonstrates that the combination of cell sheet technology together with an osteoconductive biphasic scaffold could be utilized to address the limitations of current periodontal regeneration techniques.

MRI-based strain and strain rate analysis of left ventricle: A modified hierarchical transformation model

Background Different from other indicators of cardiac function, such as ejection fraction and transmitral early diastolic velocity, myocardial strain is promising to capture subtle alterations that result from early diseases of the myocardium. In order to extract the left ventricle (LV) myocardial strain and strain rate from cardiac cine-MRI, a modified hierarchical transformation model was proposed. Methods A hierarchical transformation model including the global and local LV deformations was employed to analyze the strain and strain rate of the left ventricle by cine-MRI image registration. The endocardial and epicardial contour information was introduced to enhance the registration accuracy by combining the original hierarchical algorithm with an Iterative Closest Points using Invariant Features algorithm. The hierarchical model was validated by a normal volunteer first and then applied to two clinical cases (i.e., the normal volunteer and a diabetic patient) to evaluate their respective function. Results Based on the two clinical cases, by comparing the displacement fields of two selected landmarks in the normal volunteer, the proposed method showed a better performance than the original or unmodified model. Meanwhile, the comparison of the radial strain between the volunteer and patient demonstrated their apparent functional difference. Conclusions The present method could be used to estimate the LV myocardial strain and strain rate during a cardiac cycle and thus to quantify the analysis of the LV motion function.

Study on the elastic-plastic behavior of a porous hierarchical bioscaffold used for bone regeneration

A perfectly plastic von Mises model is proposed to study the elastic-plastic behavior of a porous hierarchical scaffold used for bone regeneration. The proposed constitutive model is implemented in a finite element (FE) routine to obtain the stress-strain relationship of a uniaxially loaded cube of the scaffold, whose constituent is considered to be composed of cortical bone. The results agree well with experimental data for uniaxial loading case of a cancellous bone. We find that the unhomogenized stress distribution results in different mechanical properties from but still comparable to our previous theory. The scaffold is a promising candidate for bone regeneration.

ESR measurements of the partitioning of some new spin probes in n-octanol-water

The stable free radical 1,1,3,3-tetramethylisoindolin-2-yloxyl (TMIO) has proved to be very suitable for use as a spin probe for a number of applications. Because it is soluble mainly in non-polar liquids, there is a need for new derivatives that can be used in a variety of environments. This has been done by introducing substituents in the 5-position of the aromatic ring, namely carboxyl (CTMIO), trimethylamino (TMTMIOI) and sodium sulphonate (NaTMIOS). An accurate ESR method was developed for the measurement of partition coefficients in n-octanol–water. For comparison purposes the method was also applied to some Tempo derivatives. The effect of temperature on the rotational correlation times and the nitrogen-14 hyperfine coupling constant of some of the spin probes was investigated. There is evidence for dimerization of CTMIO to form a biradical

Disease mapping using Bayesian hierarchical models

description and analysis of geographically indexed health data with respect to demographic, environmental, behavioural, socioeconomic, genetic, and infectious risk factors (Elliott andWartenberg 2004). Disease maps can be useful for estimating relative risk; ecological analyses, incorporating area and/or individual-level covariates; or cluster analyses (Lawson 2009). As aggregated data are often more readily available, one common method of mapping disease is to aggregate the counts of disease at some geographical areal level, and present them as choropleth maps (Devesa et al. 1999; Population Health Division 2006). Therefore, this chapter will focus exclusively on methods appropriate for areal data...

Predicting health programme participation: A gravity‐based, hierarchical modelling approach

Statistical analyses of health program participation seek to address a number of objectives compatible with the evaluation of demand for current resources. In this spirit, a spatial hierarchical model is developed for disentangling patterns in participation at the small area level, as a function of population-based demand and additional variation. For the former, a constrained gravity model is proposed to quantify factors associated with spatial choice and account for competition effects, for programs delivered by multiple clinics. The implications of gravity model misspecification within a mixed effects framework are also explored. The proposed model is applied to participation data from a no-fee mammography program in Brisbane, Australia. Attention is paid to the interpretation of various model outputs and their relevance for public health policy.