Projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios : A systematic review

Background: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. Data sources and extraction: A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English up to 2010. Data synthesis: The review included 14 studies that fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding of the historical temperature-mortality relationships, and consideration of the future changes in climate, population and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socio-economic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution and mortality displacement. Conclusions: Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality.

Binang gurri: turning a deaf ear to indigenous hearing loss

Objective: This paper asks whether Indigenous health policies might be improved if governments listened to Indigenous voices, both Australian and those who drafted the Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, 2007. Methods: A fundamental tenet of the Declaration, which Australia endorsed in 2009, is respect for Indigenous knowledge and voice. The author analyses legal, cultural and historical sources for evidence of this respect. The metaphorical and empirical framework of the analysis is the epidemic of otitis media among Indigenous children. Results: A survey of Indigenous advice about health clearly demonstrates that access to their land and respect for the diversity of Indigenous cultures should inform health policies. Despite, however, claiming to consult Indigenous peoples, policy-makers have not been listening. In many Indigenous languages not listening, or ‘bad ears’, has connotations of disrespect. Conclusions: By turning a deaf ear to Indigenous knowledge governments are undermining any respect Indigenous peoples may have for them and their policies. A new approach is needed. Implications: The Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples can provide federal, state and territory governments with benchmarks against which health policy can be developed and implemented. Authentic consultation could restore Indigenous confidence in government policies.

Parliament and community road safety

In the past, Queensland parliamentary committees have successfully assisted in the introduction of evidence-based policy and legislation and this presentation will describe how Parliament supports road safety through its committees. The presentation will examine the strengths of parliamentary committees in the Westminster system, provide an overview of the reformed committee system and discuss an example of a previous road safety inquiry (completed under the former committee system). Developing an understanding of parliamentary committees will help road safety practitioners to present their ideas in an appropriate manner that will encourage the examination of their ideas by parliamentary committees and increase the likelihood that their suggestions will be included as recommendations within a committee report and subsequently acted upon by the government.

The influence of ambient temperature on birth outcomes in Brisbane, Australia

Lately, there has been increasing interest in the association between temperature and adverse birth outcomes including preterm birth (PTB) and stillbirth. PTB is a major predictor of many diseases later in life, and stillbirth is a devastating event for parents and families. The aim of this study was to assess the seasonal pattern of adverse birth outcomes, and to examine possible associations of maternal exposure to temperature with PTB and stillbirth. We also aimed to identify if there were any periods of the pregnancy where exposure to temperature was particularly harmful. A retrospective cohort study design was used and we retrieved individual birth records from the Queensland Health Perinatal Data Collection Unit for all singleton births (excluding twins and triplets) delivered in Brisbane between 1 July 2005 and 30 June 2009. We obtained weather data (including hourly relative humidity, minimum and maximum temperature) and air-pollution data (including PM10, SO2 and O3) from the Queensland Department of Environment and Resource Management. We used survival analyses with the time-dependent variables of temperature, humidity and air pollution, and the competing risks of stillbirth and live birth. To assess the monthly pattern of the birth outcomes, we fitted month of pregnancy as a time-dependent variable. We examined the seasonal pattern of the birth outcomes and the relationship between exposure to high or low temperatures and birth outcomes over the four lag weeks before birth. We further stratified by categorisation of PTB: extreme PTB (< 28 weeks of gestation), PTB (28–36 weeks of gestation), and term birth (≥ 37 weeks of gestation). Lastly, we examined the effect of temperature variation in each week of the pregnancy on birth outcomes. There was a bimodal seasonal pattern in gestation length. After adjusting for temperature, the seasonal pattern changed from bimodal, to only one peak in winter. The risk of stillbirth was statistically significant lower in March compared with January. After adjusting for temperature, the March trough was still statistically significant and there was a peak in risk (not statistically significant) in winter. There was an acute effect of temperature on gestational age and stillbirth with a shortened gestation for increasing temperature from 15 °C to 25 °C over the last four weeks before birth. For stillbirth, we found an increasing risk with increasing temperatures from 12 °C to approximately 20 °C, and no change in risk at temperatures above 20 °C. Certain periods of the pregnancy were more vulnerable to temperature variation. The risk of PTB (28–36 weeks of gestation) increased as temperatures increased above 21 °C. For stillbirth, the fetus was most vulnerable at less than 28 weeks of gestation, but there were also effects in 28–36 weeks of gestation. For fetuses of more than 37 weeks of gestation, increasing temperatures did not increase the risk of stillbirth. We did not find any adverse affects of cold temperature on birth outcomes in this cohort. My findings contribute to knowledge of the relationship between temperature and birth outcomes. In the context of climate change, this is particularly important. The results may have implications for public health policy and planning, as they indicate that pregnant women would decrease their risk of adverse birth outcomes by avoiding exposure to high temperatures and seeking cool environments during hot days.

Emergency medicine in China

With the world’s largest population of 1.3 billion, China is a rapidly developing country. In line with this development, China’s enormous health system is experiencing an unprecedented series of reforms. According to a recent official government report, China has 300, 000 health organizations, which include 60, 000 hospitals and a total number of 3.07 million beds (China NBoSoP 2006). To provide health services for the national population, as well as the substantial number of visitors, China has 1.93 million doctors and 1.34 million registered nurses (China NBoSoP 2006). From 1984 to 2004, the number of inpatients grew from about 25 to 50 million, with outpatient figures increasing from 1.1 to 1.3 billion (China MoH 2006). The scale of the health system is likely bigger than in any other countries in the world, but the quality of medical services is still among the levels of developing countries. In 2005, approximately 3.8% of inpatients (about 1.5 million)(China NBoSoP 2006) were admitted because of injury and poisoning, which created significant load for the acute health system. These increased figures are at least partly because of the development of the health system and technological health-care advances but, even with such advances, this rapid change in emergency health-care demand has created a very significant burden on existing systems...

Lost and found : improving ascertainment of refugee-background Australians in population datasets

Humanitarian entrants remain invisible in existing populations datasets, and this has significant implications for health care and health policy. We suggest adding 'year of arrival' to population datasets; enabling the combination of 'country of birth' and 'year of arrival' to be used as a proxy for refugee status.

A case-control study of ambient heat exposure and urolithiasis among outdoor workers in a shipbuilding company, Guangzhou, China

Higher ambient temperatures will increase heat stress on workers, leading to impacts upon their individual health and productivity. In particular, research has indicated that higher ambient temperatures can increase the prevalence of urolithiasis. This thesis examines the relationship between ambient heat exposure and urolithiasis among outdoor workers in a shipbuilding company in Guangzhou, China, and makes recommendations for minimising the possible impacts of high ambient temperatures on urolithiasis. A retrospective 1:4 matched case-control study was performed to investigate the association between ambient heat exposure and urolithiasis. Ambient heat exposure was characterised by total exposure time, type of work, department and length of service. The data were obtained from the affiliated hospital of the shipbuilding company under study for the period 2003 to 2010. A conditional logistic regression model was used to estimate the association between heat exposure and urolithiasis. This study found that the odds ratio (OR) of urolithiasis for total exposure time was 1.5 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2–1.8). Eight types of work in the shipbuilding company were investigated, including welder, assembler, production security and quality inspector, planing machine operator, spray painter, gas-cutting worker and indoor employee. Five out of eight types of work had significantly higher risks for urolithiasis, and four of the five mainly consisted of outdoors work with ORs of 4.4 (95% CI: 1.7–11.4) for spray painter, 3.8 (95% CI: 1.9–7.2) for welder, 2.7 (95% CI: 1.4–5.0) for production security and quality inspector, and 2.2 (95% CI: 1.1–4.3) for assembler, compared to the reference group (indoor employee). Workers with abnormal blood pressure (hypertension) were more likely to have urolithiasis with an OR of 1.6 (95% CI: 1.0–2.5) compared to those without hypertension. This study contributes to the understanding of the association between ambient heat exposure and urolithiasis among outdoor workers in China. In the context of global climate change, this is particularly important because rising temperatures are expected to increase the prevalence of urolithiasis among outdoor workers, putting greater pressure on productivity, occupational health management and health care systems. The results of this study have clear implications for public health policy and planning, as they indicate that more attention is required to protect outdoor workers from heat-related urolithiasis.

What are the implications of peri-urban agriculture on food security in Australian cities?

Background: Periurban agriculture refers to agricultural practice occurring in areas with mixed rural and urban features. It is responsible 25% of the total gross value of economic production in Australia, despite only comprising 3% of the land used for agriculture. As populations grows and cities expand, they are constantly absorbing surrounding fringe areas, thus creating a new fringe, further from the city causing the periurban region to constantly shift outwards. Periurban regions are fundamental in the provision of fresh food to city populations and residential (and industrial) expansion taking over agricultural land has been noted as a major worldwide concern. Another major concern around the increase in urbanisation and resultant decrease in periurban agriculture is its potential effect on food security. Food security is the availability or access to nutritionally-adequate, culturally-relevant and safe foods in culturally-appropriate ways. Thus food insecurity occurs when access to or availability of these foods is compromised. There is an important level of connectedness between food security and food production and a decrease in periurban agriculture may have adverse effects on food security. A decrease in local, seasonal produce may result in a decrease in the availability of products and an increase in cost, as food must travel greater distances, incurring extra costs present at the consumer level. Currently, few Australian studies exist examining the change in periurban agriculture over time. Such information may prove useful for future health policy and interventions as well as infrastructure planning. The aim of this study is to investigate changes in periurban agriculture among capital cities of Australia. Methods: We compared data pertaining to selected commodities from the Australian Bureau of Statistics 2000-01 and 2005 -2006 Agricultural Census. This survey is distributed online or via mail on a five-yearly basis to approximately 175,000 Agricultural business to ascertain information on a range of factors, such as types of crops, livestock and land preparation practices. For the purpose of this study we compared the land being used for total crops, and cereal , oil seed, legume, fruit and vegetable crops separately. Data was analysed using repeated measures anova in spss. Results: Overall, total area available for crops in urbanised areas of Australia increased slightly by 1.8%. However, Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth experienced decreases in the area available for fruit crops by 11%, 5%,and 4% respectively. Furthermore, Brisbane and Perth experienced decreases in land available for vegetable crops by 28% and 14% respectively. Finally, Sydney, Adelaide and Perth experienced decreases in land available for cereal crops by 10 – 79%. Conclusions: These findings suggest that population increases and consequent urban sprawl may be resulting in a decrease in peri-urban agriculture, specifically for several core food groups including fruit, breads and grain based foods. In doing so, access to or availability of these foods may be limited, and the cost of these foods is likely to increase, which may compromise food insecurity for certain sub-groups of the population.

Ambulance use is associated with higher self-rated illness seriousness : user attitudes and perceptions

Objectives The objective was to study the role and effect of patients' perceptions on reasons for using ambulance services in Queensland, Australia. Methods A cross-sectional survey was conducted of patients (n = 911) presenting via ambulance or self-transport at eight public hospital emergency departments (EDs). The survey included perceived illness severity, attitudes toward ambulance, and reasons for using ambulance. A theoretical framework was developed to inform this study. Results Ambulance users had significantly higher self-rated perceived seriousness, urgency, and pain than self-transports. They were also more likely to agree that ambulance services are for everyone to use, regardless of the severity of their conditions. In compared to self-transports, likelihood of using an ambulance increased by 26% for every unit increase in perceived seriousness; and patients who had not used an ambulance in the 6 months prior to the survey were 66% less likely to arrive by ambulance. Patients who had presented via ambulance stated they considered the urgency (87%) or severity (84%) of their conditions as reasons for calling the ambulance. Other reasons included requiring special care (76%), getting higher priority at the ED (34%), not having a car (34%), and financial concerns (17%). Conclusions Understanding patients' perceptions is essential in explaining their actions and developing safe and effective health promotion programs. Individuals use ambulances for various reasons and justifications according to their beliefs, attitudes, and sociodemographic conditions. Policies to reduce and manage demand for such services need to address both general opinions and specific attitudes toward emergency health services to be effective.

Children, toxic chemicals and Australia's intergenerational obligations

The high volume and widespread use of industrial chemicals, the backlog of internationally untested chemicals, the uptake of synthetic chemicals found in babies’ in utero, cord blood, and in breast milk, and the lack of a unified and comprehensive regulatory framework, all underscore the importance of developing policies that protect the most vulnerable in our society – our children. Australia’s failure to do so raises profound intergenerational ethical issues. This paper tells a story of international policy, and where Australia is falling down. This paper highlights the need for significant policy reforms in the area of chemical regulation in Australia. We argue that we can learn much from countries already taking critical steps to reduce the toxic chemical exposure, and the development of a comprehensive, child-centered chemical regulation framework is central to turning this around.

Evaluating the effectiveness of heat warning systems : a systematic review of epidemiological evidence

Objectives To review the existing research on the effectiveness of heat warning systems (HWSs) in saving lives and reducing harm. Methods A systematic search of major databases was conducted, using “heat, heatwave, high temperature, hot temperature, OR hot climate” AND “warning system”. Results Fifteen articles were retrieved. Six studies asserted that fewer people died of excessive heat after HWS implementation. HWS was associated with reduction in ambulance use. One study estimated the benefits of HWS to be 468millionforsaving117livescomparedto210,000 costs of running the system. Eight studies showed that mere availability of HWS did not lead to behavioral changes. Perceived threat of heat dangers to self/others was the main factor related to heeding warnings and taking proper actions. However, costs and barriers associated with taking protective actions, such as costs of running air conditioners, were of significant concern particularly to the poor. Conclusions Research in this area is limited. Prospective designs applying health behavior theories should establish whether HWS can produce the health benefits they are purported to achieve by identifying the target vulnerable groups.

Decision and reasons for calling an ambulance : patients’ perspective

Background: Demand for pre-hospital emergency care is increasing in Australia as in many other countries. Using posthoc criteria such as triage, diagnosis and admission status, some authors view a considerable number of these as "inappropriate". Yet, calling an ambulance at the time of emergency is rarely studied from the patients’ or their carers’ perspective. This study interviewed patients about the decision, circumstances surrounding and reasons for calling an ambulance in Queensland, Australia. Methods: A cross-sectional survey of patients attending a sample of eight public hospital emergency departments in Queensland was undertaken between March and May 2011. In total, 911 questionnaires were collected (response rate: 67%), of whom 226 (24.8%) had arrived by ambulance. Results: In 35.6% of ambulance arrivals, the decision to request an ambulance was made by the patient; 25% by a doctor; 20% by a family member, friend or carer. Other callers included nurse, people at work or school, and passers-by. Reasons to request an ambulance included urgency (87%) and severity (84%) of the condition. Other reasons included requiring special care (76%), getting higher priority at the emergency department (34%), not having a car (34%), and financial concerns (17%). Decision to request an ambulance varied significantly according to the time of illness onset (e.g. on the day, week before), and location (e.g. home, outside). Conclusion: The decision to call an ambulance is made mostly by non-medical professionals in a perceived emergency situation. They call the ambulance for different reasons but mainly take into account the patient’s welfare and safety. Better understanding of these reasons will affect the direction and effectiveness of demand management strategies.