Polarization of forecast densities : a new approach to time series classification

Time series classification has been extensively explored in many fields of study. Most methods are based on the historical or current information extracted from data. However, if interest is in a specific future time period, methods that directly relate to forecasts of time series are much more appropriate. An approach to time series classification is proposed based on a polarization measure of forecast densities of time series. By fitting autoregressive models, forecast replicates of each time series are obtained via the bias-corrected bootstrap, and a stationarity correction is considered when necessary. Kernel estimators are then employed to approximate forecast densities, and discrepancies of forecast densities of pairs of time series are estimated by a polarization measure, which evaluates the extent to which two densities overlap. Following the distributional properties of the polarization measure, a discriminant rule and a clustering method are proposed to conduct the supervised and unsupervised classification, respectively. The proposed methodology is applied to both simulated and real data sets, and the results show desirable properties.

Modelling of Electric Fields

South Africa has an electrical transmission grid of over 25 000 km of overhead power lines with voltages of 132 kV to 765 kV. The grid has been largely designed and built by the power utility, Eskom. This book embodies the planning philosophies, design principles and construction practices of Eskom. It is the culmination of decades of thought, study, research and the practical experience of many overhead power line engineers and researchers. The book covers the main aspects of overhead power line design and construction, from electrical first principles, system planning, insulation co-ordination (including live line working), mechanical design through to environmental impact management and power line communications. The content emphasises the need for close interaction between all technical disciplines involved and the importance of optimising designs for economy and performance. Additional challenges in South Africa are the relatively high altitude of the interior plateau (1 000 m to 1 700 m above sea level), severe lightning in some areas and long transmission distances. The book explains how these factors are accommodated in modern designs. Other advanced work covered includes the use and understanding of polymeric insulators, the judicious reduction of phase-to-phase spacings and the adoption of guyed structures.