Expert elicitation into Bayesian networks : understanding probability

An introduction to thinking about and understanding probability that highlights the main pits and trapfalls that befall logical reasoning

Expert elicitation into Bayesian networks, Part 1 of 4 : understanding probability

An introduction to elicitation of experts' probabilities, which illustrates common problems with reasoning and how to circumvent them during elicitation.

Expert elicitation into Bayesian networks, part 2 of 4: designing elicitation

An introduction to design of eliciting knowledge from experts.

Expert elicitation into Bayesian networks, Part 4 of 4: eliciting a conditional probability table

An introduction to eliciting a conditional probability table in a Bayesian Network model, highlighting three efficient methods for populating a CPT.

#Ausvotes : how Twitter covered the 2010 Australian federal election

While the 2007 Australian federal election was notable for the use of social media by the Australian Labor Party in campaigning, the 2010 election took place in a media landscape in which social media–especially Twitter–had become much more embedded in both political journalism and independent political commentary. This article draws on the computer-aided analysis of election-related Twitter messages, collected under the #ausvotes hashtag, to describe the key patterns of activity and thematic foci of the election’s coverage in this particular social media site. It introduces novel metrics for analysing public communication via Twitter, and describes the related methods. What emerges from this analysis is the role of the #ausvotes hashtag as a means of gathering an ad hoc ‘issue public’– a finding which is likely to be replicated for other hashtag communities.

Developing a framework for Six Sigma in financial service institutions : empirical evidence from expert interviews

Six Sigma is considered to be an important management philosophy to obtain satisfied customers. But financial service organisations have been slow to adopt Six Sigma issues so far. Despite the extensive effort that has been invested and benefits that can be obtained, the systematic implementation of Six Sigma in financial service organisations is limited. As a company wide implementation framework is missing so far, this paper tries to fill this gap. Based on theory, a conceptual framework is developed and evaluated by experts from financial institutions. The results show that it is very important to link Six Sigma with the strategic as well as the operations level. Furthermore, although Six Sigma is a very important method for improving quality of processes others such as Lean Management are also used This requires a superior project portfolio management to coordinate resources and projects of Six Sigma with the other methods used. Beside the theoretical contribution, the framework can be used by financial service companies to evaluate their Six Sigma activities. Thus, the framework grounded through literature and empirical data will be a useful guide for sustainable and successful implementation of a Six Sigma initiative in financial service organisations.

National Environmental Law Review Issue 2011: 3, Editorial: Federal Developments

Clean Energy Agreement of the MPCCC On 10 July 2011, details of the Multi-Party Climate Change Committee’s Clean Energy Agreement for implementing a carbon price were released. This included an agreed package of measures that the Committee considered would enable Australia to meet its emissions reduction targets in an environmentally and economically efficient way. A copy of the agreement can be found on the website of the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency...

Forensic analysis of fibres by vibrational spectroscopy

Fibres are extremely common. They can originate directly from human and animal hair, and also from textiles in the form of clothing, upholstery and carpets. Hair and textile fibres are relatively easily shed and transferred, which means that it is highly likely that fibres will be found at crime scenes. If such fibres are carefully characterised they can be of immense value in the forensic environment. Vibrational spectroscopy is one of the most important methods for the characterisation of natural and synthetic fibres. The vibrational spectrum, whether mid-IR or Raman, can be considered to be a fingerprint of the molecular structure of the fibre and as such has a very high information content.

Editorial : Federal developments

On 10 May 2011, Federal Treasurer Wayne Swan MP delivered the Federal Budget for the 2011–2012 financial year. The Budget contains a number of new initiatives, financial redistributions and reductions that relate to Australia's current regulatory framework governing the environment, climate change and renewable energy. These are set out below...

Editorial: Federal developments

On 24 February 2011 the Multi-Party Climate Change Committee released the broad architecture for a carbon pricing scheme, which is scheduled to commence on 1 July 2012. The proposed mechanism has been agreed by the members of the Multi-Party Climate Change Committee representing the Government and the Australian Greens. Independents Mr Windsor and Mr Oakeshott agreed to the release of the proposal to enable consideration of it, but have not commented on its contents.

US Federal Government entrepreneurship : new enterprise structures

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to guide the formation and to determine the structure of new governmental entrepreneurial ventures based on the nature of the public goods and the need for an entrepreneurial orientation. Design/methodology/research: This paper is conceptual and is based on reviews of appropriate organizational structure and entrepreneurship, cases studies, and the authors' experiences. Findings: Public or quasi-public entities may need to change their organizational structure in order to act more entrepreneurially and to be more effective in accomplishing their missions. Propositions are raised to guide the development of new public or private enterprises and provide the basis for future research. Research limitations/implications: This paper is conceptual and needs to be tested empirically. Though other levels of government and countries were included, a major focus is on the US federal government. Originality/value: This is the first published research on the topic of new enterprise government structures based on the nature of the goods and the requisite entrepreneurial orientation. It will help governmental and quasi-governmental organizations in developing efficient and effective organizational structures.

A proposed validation framework for expert elicited Bayesian Networks

The popularity of Bayesian Network modelling of complex domains using expert elicitation has raised questions of how one might validate such a model given that no objective dataset exists for the model. Past attempts at delineating a set of tests for establishing confidence in an entirely expert-elicited model have focused on single types of validity stemming from individual sources of uncertainty within the model. This paper seeks to extend the frameworks proposed by earlier researchers by drawing upon other disciplines where measuring latent variables is also an issue. We demonstrate that even in cases where no data exist at all there is a broad range of validity tests that can be used to establish confidence in the validity of a Bayesian Belief Network.

Embedding human expert cognition and real-time trajectory planning in autonomous UAS

This thesis presents a new approach to compute and optimize feasible three dimensional (3D) flight trajectories using aspects of Human Decision Making (HDM) strategies, for fixed wing Unmanned Aircraft (UA) operating in low altitude environments in the presence of real time planning deadlines. The underlying trajectory generation strategy involves the application of Manoeuvre Automaton (MA) theory to create sets of candidate flight manoeuvres which implicitly incorporate platform dynamic constraints. Feasible trajectories are formed through the concatenation of predefined flight manoeuvres in an optimized manner. During typical UAS operations, multiple objectives may exist, therefore the use of multi-objective optimization can potentially allow for convergence to a solution which better reflects overall mission requirements and HDM preferences. A GUI interface was developed to allow for knowledge capture from a human expert during simulated mission scenarios. The expert decision data captured is converted into value functions and corresponding criteria weightings using UTilite Additive (UTA) theory. The inclusion of preferences elicited from HDM decision data within an Automated Decision System (ADS) allows for the generation of trajectories which more closely represent the candidate HDM’s decision strategies. A novel Computationally Adaptive Trajectory Decision optimization System (CATDS) has been developed and implemented in simulation to dynamically manage, calculate and schedule system execution parameters to ensure that the trajectory solution search can generate a feasible solution, if one exists, within a given length of time. The inclusion of the CATDS potentially increases overall mission efficiency and may allow for the implementation of the system on different UAS platforms with varying onboard computational capabilities. These approaches have been demonstrated in simulation using a fixed wing UAS operating in low altitude environments with obstacles present.