New criteria for evaluating methods of identifying hot spots

Identification of hot spots, also known as the sites with promise, black spots, accident-prone locations, or priority investigation locations, is an important and routine activity for improving the overall safety of roadway networks. Extensive literature focuses on methods for hot spot identification (HSID). A subset of this considerable literature is dedicated to conducting performance assessments of various HSID methods. A central issue in comparing HSID methods is the development and selection of quantitative and qualitative performance measures or criteria. The authors contend that currently employed HSID assessment criteria—namely false positives and false negatives—are necessary but not sufficient, and additional criteria are needed to exploit the ordinal nature of site ranking data. With the intent to equip road safety professionals and researchers with more useful tools to compare the performances of various HSID methods and to improve the level of HSID assessments, this paper proposes four quantitative HSID evaluation tests that are, to the authors’ knowledge, new and unique. These tests evaluate different aspects of HSID method performance, including reliability of results, ranking consistency, and false identification consistency and reliability. It is intended that road safety professionals apply these different evaluation tests in addition to existing tests to compare the performances of various HSID methods, and then select the most appropriate HSID method to screen road networks to identify sites that require further analysis. This work demonstrates four new criteria using 3 years of Arizona road section accident data and four commonly applied HSID methods [accident frequency ranking, accident rate ranking, accident reduction potential, and empirical Bayes (EB)]. The EB HSID method reveals itself as the superior method in most of the evaluation tests. In contrast, identifying hot spots using accident rate rankings performs the least well among the tests. The accident frequency and accident reduction potential methods perform similarly, with slight differences explained. The authors believe that the four new evaluation tests offer insight into HSID performance heretofore unavailable to analysts and researchers.

Experimental evaluation of hotspot identification methods

Identifying crash “hotspots”, “blackspots”, “sites with promise”, or “high risk” locations is standard practice in departments of transportation throughout the US. The literature is replete with the development and discussion of statistical methods for hotspot identification (HSID). Theoretical derivations and empirical studies have been used to weigh the benefits of various HSID methods; however, a small number of studies have used controlled experiments to systematically assess various methods. Using experimentally derived simulated data—which are argued to be superior to empirical data, three hot spot identification methods observed in practice are evaluated: simple ranking, confidence interval, and Empirical Bayes. Using simulated data, sites with promise are known a priori, in contrast to empirical data where high risk sites are not known for certain. To conduct the evaluation, properties of observed crash data are used to generate simulated crash frequency distributions at hypothetical sites. A variety of factors is manipulated to simulate a host of ‘real world’ conditions. Various levels of confidence are explored, and false positives (identifying a safe site as high risk) and false negatives (identifying a high risk site as safe) are compared across methods. Finally, the effects of crash history duration in the three HSID approaches are assessed. The results illustrate that the Empirical Bayes technique significantly outperforms ranking and confidence interval techniques (with certain caveats). As found by others, false positives and negatives are inversely related. Three years of crash history appears, in general, to provide an appropriate crash history duration.

Secure tracking for critical applications : communications, GPS and future Galileo services

Tracking/remote monitoring systems using GNSS are a proven method to enhance the safety and security of personnel and vehicles carrying precious or hazardous cargo. While GNSS tracking appears to mitigate some of these threats, if not adequately secured, it can be a double-edged sword allowing adversaries to obtain sensitive shipment and vehicle position data to better coordinate their attacks, and to provide a false sense of security to monitoring centers. Tracking systems must be designed with the ability to perform route-compliance and thwart attacks ranging from low-level attacks such as the cutting of antenna cables to medium and high-level attacks involving radio jamming and signal / data-level simulation, especially where the goods transported have a potentially high value to terrorists. This paper discusses the use of GNSS in critical tracking applications, addressing the mitigation of GNSS security issues, augmentation systems and communication systems in order to provide highly robust and survivable tracking systems.

Development of a novel rolling-circle amplification technique to detect Banana streak virus which also discriminates between integrated and episomal virus sequences

Bananas are hosts to a large number of banana streak virus (BSV) species. However, diagnostic methods for BSV are inadequate because of the considerable genetic and serological diversity amongst BSV isolates and the presence of integrated BSV sequences in some banana cultivars which leads to false positives. In this study, a sequence non-specific, rolling-circle amplification (RCA) technique was developed and shown to overcome these limitations for the detection and subsequent characterisation of BSV isolates infecting banana. This technique was shown to discriminate between integrated and episomal BSV DNA, specifically detecting the latter in several banana cultivars known to contain episomal and/or integrated sequences of Banana streak Mysore virus (BSMyV), Banana streak OL virus (BSOLV) and Banana streak GF virus (BSGFV). Using RCA, the presence of BSMyV and BSOLV was confirmed in Australia, while BSOLV, BSGFV, Banana streak Uganda I virus (BSUgIV), Banana streak Uganda L virus (BSUgLV) and Banana streak Uganda M virus (BSUgMV) were detected in Uganda. This is the first confirmed report of episomally-derived BSUglV, BSUgLV and BSUgMV in Uganda. As well as its ability to detect BSV, RCA was shown to detect two other pararetroviruses, Sugarcane bacilliform virus in sugarcane and Cauliflower mosaic virus in turnip.

Detection of anomalies from user profiles generated from system logs

We describe research into the identification of anomalous events and event patterns as manifested in computer system logs. Prototype software has been developed with a capability that identifies anomalous events based on usage patterns or user profiles, and alerts administrators when such events are identified. To reduce the number of false positive alerts we have investigated the use of different user profile training techniques and introduce the use of abstractions to group together applications which are related. Our results suggest that the number of false alerts that are generated is significantly reduced when a growing time window is used for user profile training and when abstraction into groups of applications is used.

Validation Gating for Non-Linear Non-Gaussian Target Tracking

This paper develops a general theory of validation gating for non-linear non-Gaussian mod- els. Validation gates are used in target tracking to cull very unlikely measurement-to-track associa- tions, before remaining association ambiguities are handled by a more comprehensive (and expensive) data association scheme. The essential property of a gate is to accept a high percentage of correct associ- ations, thus maximising track accuracy, but provide a su±ciently tight bound to minimise the number of ambiguous associations. For linear Gaussian systems, the ellipsoidal vali- dation gate is standard, and possesses the statistical property whereby a given threshold will accept a cer- tain percentage of true associations. This property does not hold for non-linear non-Gaussian models. As a system departs from linear-Gaussian, the ellip- soid gate tends to reject a higher than expected pro- portion of correct associations and permit an excess of false ones. In this paper, the concept of the ellip- soidal gate is extended to permit correct statistics for the non-linear non-Gaussian case. The new gate is demonstrated by a bearing-only tracking example.

Intrusion detection framework for encrypted networks

Network-based Intrusion Detection Systems (NIDSs) monitor network traffic for signs of malicious activities that have the potential to disrupt entire network infrastructures and services. NIDS can only operate when the network traffic is available and can be extracted for analysis. However, with the growing use of encrypted networks such as Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) that encrypt and conceal network traffic, a traditional NIDS can no longer access network traffic for analysis. The goal of this research is to address this problem by proposing a detection framework that allows a commercial off-the-shelf NIDS to function normally in a VPN without any modification. One of the features of the proposed framework is that it does not compromise on the confidentiality afforded by the VPN. Our work uses a combination of Shamir’s secret-sharing scheme and randomised network proxies to securely route network traffic to the NIDS for analysis. The detection framework is effective against two general classes of attacks – attacks targeted at the network hosts or attacks targeted at framework itself. We implement the detection framework as a prototype program and evaluate it. Our evaluation shows that the framework does indeed detect these classes of attacks and does not introduce any additional false positives. Despite the increase in network overhead in doing so, the proposed detection framework is able to consistently detect intrusions through encrypted networks.

Secure data aggregation in wireless sensor networks

A Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) is a set of sensors that are integrated with a physical environment. These sensors are small in size, and capable of sensing physical phenomena and processing them. They communicate in a multihop manner, due to a short radio range, to form an Ad Hoc network capable of reporting network activities to a data collection sink. Recent advances in WSNs have led to several new promising applications, including habitat monitoring, military target tracking, natural disaster relief, and health monitoring. The current version of sensor node, such as MICA2, uses a 16 bit, 8 MHz Texas Instruments MSP430 micro-controller with only 10 KB RAM, 128 KB program space, 512 KB external ash memory to store measurement data, and is powered by two AA batteries. Due to these unique specifications and a lack of tamper-resistant hardware, devising security protocols for WSNs is complex. Previous studies show that data transmission consumes much more energy than computation. Data aggregation can greatly help to reduce this consumption by eliminating redundant data. However, aggregators are under the threat of various types of attacks. Among them, node compromise is usually considered as one of the most challenging for the security of WSNs. In a node compromise attack, an adversary physically tampers with a node in order to extract the cryptographic secrets. This attack can be very harmful depending on the security architecture of the network. For example, when an aggregator node is compromised, it is easy for the adversary to change the aggregation result and inject false data into the WSN. The contributions of this thesis to the area of secure data aggregation are manifold. We firstly define the security for data aggregation in WSNs. In contrast with existing secure data aggregation definitions, the proposed definition covers the unique characteristics that WSNs have. Secondly, we analyze the relationship between security services and adversarial models considered in existing secure data aggregation in order to provide a general framework of required security services. Thirdly, we analyze existing cryptographic-based and reputationbased secure data aggregation schemes. This analysis covers security services provided by these schemes and their robustness against attacks. Fourthly, we propose a robust reputationbased secure data aggregation scheme for WSNs. This scheme minimizes the use of heavy cryptographic mechanisms. The security advantages provided by this scheme are realized by integrating aggregation functionalities with: (i) a reputation system, (ii) an estimation theory, and (iii) a change detection mechanism. We have shown that this addition helps defend against most of the security attacks discussed in this thesis, including the On-Off attack. Finally, we propose a secure key management scheme in order to distribute essential pairwise and group keys among the sensor nodes. The design idea of the proposed scheme is the combination between Lamport's reverse hash chain as well as the usual hash chain to provide both past and future key secrecy. The proposal avoids the delivery of the whole value of a new group key for group key update; instead only the half of the value is transmitted from the network manager to the sensor nodes. This way, the compromise of a pairwise key alone does not lead to the compromise of the group key. The new pairwise key in our scheme is determined by Diffie-Hellman based key agreement.

Real estate agents, brochure and misleading or deceptive conduct

The decision of the High Court in Butcher v Lachlan Elder Realty Pty Ltd [2004] HCA 60 involves issues that affect every person who is induced to buy real estate in Australia by statements in sales brochures distributed by real estate agents. One of these issues is the extent to which estate agents unwittingly engage in misleading or deceptive conduct under s 52 of the Trade Practices Act 1974 (Cth) (‘the Act’) when they distribute sales brochures that contain untrue or misleading statements prepared by others. A further issue is the extent to which agents can escape liability by relying on disclaimers about the authenticity of false statements contained in brochures prepared by them.

Multi-step ahead direct prediction for the machine condition prognosis using regression trees and neuro-fuzzy systems

This paper presents an approach to predict the operating conditions of machine based on classification and regression trees (CART) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in association with direct prediction strategy for multi-step ahead prediction of time series techniques. In this study, the number of available observations and the number of predicted steps are initially determined by using false nearest neighbor method and auto mutual information technique, respectively. These values are subsequently utilized as inputs for prediction models to forecast the future values of the machines’ operating conditions. The performance of the proposed approach is then evaluated by using real trending data of low methane compressor. A comparative study of the predicted results obtained from CART and ANFIS models is also carried out to appraise the prediction capability of these models. The results show that the ANFIS prediction model can track the change in machine conditions and has the potential for using as a tool to machine fault prognosis.

SwarmPS: Rapid, semi-automated single particle selection software

Single particle analysis (SPA) coupled with high-resolution electron cryo-microscopy is emerging as a powerful technique for the structure determination of membrane protein complexes and soluble macromolecular assemblies. Current estimates suggest that ∼104–105 particle projections are required to attain a 3 Å resolution 3D reconstruction (symmetry dependent). Selecting this number of molecular projections differing in size, shape and symmetry is a rate-limiting step for the automation of 3D image reconstruction. Here, we present SwarmPS, a feature rich GUI based software package to manage large scale, semi-automated particle picking projects. The software provides cross-correlation and edge-detection algorithms. Algorithm-specific parameters are transparently and automatically determined through user interaction with the image, rather than by trial and error. Other features include multiple image handling (∼102), local and global particle selection options, interactive image freezing, automatic particle centering, and full manual override to correct false positives and negatives. SwarmPS is user friendly, flexible, extensible, fast, and capable of exporting boxed out projection images, or particle coordinates, compatible with downstream image processing suites.