Evaluation of the potential impact of the global economic crisis on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia

Economic conditions around the world are likely to deteriorate in the short to medium term. The potential impact of this crisis on the spread of HIV is not clear. Government revenues and aid flows from international donors may face constraints, possibly leading to reductions in funding for HIV programs. Economic conditions (leading to increases in unemployment, for example) may also have an indirect impact on HIV epidemics by affecting the behaviour of individual people. Some behavioural changes may influence the rate of HIV transmission. This report presents findings from a study that investigates the potential impact of the economic crisis on HIV epidemics through the use of mathematical modelling. The potential epidemiological impacts of changes in the economy are explored for two distinctly characterised HIV epidemics: (i) a well-defined, established, and generalised HIV epidemic (specifically Cambodia, where incidence is declining); (ii) an HIV epidemic in its early expansion phase (specifically Papua New Guinea, where incidence has not yet peaked). Country-specific data are used for both settings and the models calibrated to accurately reflect the unique HIV epidemics in each population in terms of both incidence and prevalence. Models calibrated to describe the past and present epidemics are then used to forecast epidemic trajectories over the next few years under assumptions that behavioural or program conditions may change due to economic conditions. It should be noted that there are very limited solid data on how HIV/AIDS program funds may decrease or how social determinants related to HIV risk may change due to the economic crisis. Potential changes in key relevant factors were explored, along with sensitivity ranges around these assumptions, based on extensive discussions with in-country and international experts and stakeholders. As with all mathematical models, assumptions should be reviewed critically and results interpreted cautiously.

Evaluation of saliva collection devices for the analysis of proteins

Background: Human saliva mirrors the body's health and can be collected non-invasively, does not require specialized skills and is suitable for large population based screening programs. The aims were twofold: to evaluate the suitability of commercially available saliva collection devices for quantifying proteins present in saliva and to provide levels for C-reactive protein (CRP), myoglobin, and immunoglobin E (IgE) in saliva of healthy individuals as a baseline for future studies. Methods: Saliva was collected from healthy volunteers (n = 17, ages 18-33 years). The following collection methods were evaluated: drool; Salimetrics (R) Oral Swab (SOS); Salivette (R) Cotton and Synthetic (Sarstedt) and Greiner Bio-One Saliva Collection System (GBO SCS (R)). We used AlphaLISA (R) assays to measure CRP, IgE and myoglobin levels in human saliva. Results: Significant (p<0.05) differences in the salivary flow rates were observed based on the method of collection, Le. salivary flow rates were significantly lower (p<0.05) in unstimulated saliva (Le. drool and SOS), when compared with mechanically stimulated methods (p<0.05) (Salivette (R) Cotton and Synthetic) and acid stimulated method (p<0.05) (SCS (R)). Saliva collected using SOS yielded significantly (p<0.05) lower concentrations of myoglobin and CRP, whilst, saliva collected using the Salivette (R) Cotton and Synthetic swab yielded significantly (p<0.05) lower myoglobin and IgE concentrations respectively. Conclusions: The results demonstrated significantly relevant differences in analyte levels based on the collection method. Significant differences in the salivary flow rates were also observed depending on the saliva collection method. The data provide preliminary baseline values for salivary CRP, myoglobin, and IgE levels in healthy participants and based on the collection method. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Economic evaluation of adolescent reproductive health education interventions in Chilinh, Vietnam

This research was an economic analysis of two novel health education interventions compared to existing practice for reproductive health among young people in northern Vietnam. The research showed that implementing an educational intervention including school-based and health facility-based components was cost effective for males and females. The findings will assist decision makers in efficient allocation of scarce resources for adolescent health promotion in Vietnam and similar socio-economic contexts in Asia.

An evaluation of the neocognitron

We describe a sequence of experiments investigating the strengths and limitations of Fukushima's neocognitron as a handwritten digit classifier. Using the results of these experiments as a foundation, we propose and evaluate improvements to Fukushima's original network in an effort to obtain higher recognition performance. The neocognitron's performance is shown to be strongly dependent on the choice of selectivity parameters and we present two methods to adjust these variables. Performance of the network under the more effective of the two new selectivity adjustment techniques suggests that the network fails to exploit the features that distinguish different classes of input data. To avoid this shortcoming, the network's final layer cells were replaced by a nonlinear classifier (a multilayer perceptron) to create a hybrid architecture. Tests of Fukushima's original system and the novel systems proposed in this paper suggest that it may be difficult for the neocognitron to achieve the performance of existing digit classifiers due to its reliance upon the supervisor's choice of selectivity parameters and training data. These findings pertain to Fukushima's implementation of the system and should not be seen as diminishing the practical significance of the concept of hierarchical feature extraction embodied in the neocognitron. © 1997 IEEE.

Learnings, case studies and guidelines for establishing shared and collaborative service delivery in the non-government sector: Evaluation of the Multi-Tenant Service Centre (MTSC) Pilots Project

This report presents learnings, case studies, guidelines and resources for non-government organisations that are planning to implement shared or collaborative arrangements with other agencies. It summarises results from an evaluation of the implementation phase of the Multi-Tenant Service Centre (MTSC) Pilots Project, which was completed in June 2008. This evaluation shows that developing and implementing shared and collaborative arrangements is a complex process that presents many risks, challenges and barriers to success, but can have many potential benefits for non government organisations. As this report makes clear, there is no ‘one size fits all’ approach to this process. The MTSC Pilots Project was conducted by the Department of Communities (DoC), Queensland Government, as part of its Strengthening Non-Government Organisations strategy. The objective of the MTSC Pilots initiative was to co-locate separate service providers in an appropriately located centre, operating with effective and transparent management, which enabled service providers to improve client services. Three MTSC consortiums in Mackay, Caboolture and Toowoomba were selected as the pilots over a four year period from 2006 – 2010.

The effectiveness of psychosocial interventions for cognitive dysfunction in cancer patients who have received chemotherapy : a systematic review

Background: Chemotherapy-related cognitive dysfunction (CRCD) refers to problems with memory,attention span, or concentration, experienced by patients with cancer who have had chemotherapy. CRCD can have a significant negative effect on a patient’s quality of life. The exact cause of CRCD is unknown but is presumed to be multifactorial. Objective: To conduct a systematic review of the effectiveness of psychosocial interventions designed to treat CRCD. Methods: Participants of interest to the review were over 18 years of age, diagnosed with cancer, and receiving chemotherapy or had received chemotherapy in the past. Interventions of interest were methods to improve cognitive function. Included study designs were randomized controlled trials, quasi-experimental trials, and quantitative observational studies. The primary outcome of interest was level of cognitive function. A three-step search strategy was utilized to identify studies published from 1985 to 2011 from a wide range of databases. Joanna Briggs Institute systematic review methods were used but findings were analyzed using the Cochrane Collaboration Review Manager 5.1 program.Weightedmean differences with 95% confidence intervals were calculated from the continuous data. Results: Searching identified 3,109 potentially relevant articles and 120 full-text articles were retrieved. Two further papers were sourced from reference lists of retrieved articles. From 122 papers, six were suitable for critical appraisal and six were included in the analysis. Meta-analysis was conducted on two cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) trials for the outcome of inability to concentrate. Significant effect was seen for one CBT intervention at 20 weeks (p = .004). Significant effect from CBT on quality of life was seen at 6-month follow-up (p < .05). Conclusions: Despite some evidence of an effect, there is insufficient evidence at this stage to strongly recommend any of the interventions to assist in decreasing the effects of CRCD, except in terms of improving quality of life.

Therapeutic practice with refugee clients: a qualitative study of therapist experience

Background There is limited research on the subjective experience of therapists and their understanding of therapeutic process when working with people from refugee backgrounds. Objective The present study provides a qualitative account of therapists’ conceptions of therapeutic practice and experiences of working therapeutically with refugee clients. Method Participants were 12 mental health workers who had worked therapeutically with people from refugee backgrounds, with an average of 7.6 years (range 1.5-16 years) experience in this field. Participants completed a semi-structured interview and completed a brief quantitative survey. Findings Thematic analysis revealed a number of super-ordinate themes. Four key themes are explored in the current study: principles of therapeutic practice; therapy as a relational experience; the role of context in informing therapeutic work with refugee clients; and the impact of therapeutic work on the therapist. Discussion The results revealed the complexity and demands of working with people from refugee backgrounds. Further, the lack of research evidence for the methods of therapeutic practice described in the current study highlights the distinction between naturalistic therapeutic practice and the current state of the evidence regarding therapeutic interventions for refugee clients. The findings have important implications for training and supporting therapists to work with people who have fled their countries of origin and who have often been exposed to highly traumatic events.

Driving simulator evaluation of the failure of an audio in-vehicle warning for railway level crossings

It is impracticable to upgrade the 18,900 Australian passive crossings as such crossings are often located in remote areas, where power is lacking and with low road and rail traffic. The rail industry is interested in developing innovative in-vehicle technology interventions to warn motorists of approaching trains directly in their vehicles. The objective of this study was therefore to evaluate the benefits of the introduction of such technology. We evaluated the changes in driver performance once the technology is enabled and functioning correctly, as well as the effects of an unsafe failure of the technology? We conducted a driving simulator study where participants (N=15) were familiarised with an in-vehicle audio warning for an extended period. After being familiarised with the system, the technology started failing, and we tested the reaction of drivers with a train approaching. This study has shown that with the traditional passive crossings with RX2 signage, the majority of drivers complied (70%) and looked for trains on both sides of the rail track. With the introduction of the in-vehicle audio message, drivers did not approach crossings faster, did not reduce their safety margins and did not reduce their gaze towards the rail tracks. However participants’ compliance at the stop sign decreased by 16.5% with the technology installed in the vehicle. The effect of the failure of the in-vehicle audio warning technology showed that most participants did not experience difficulties in detecting the approaching train even though they did not receive any warning message. This showed that participants were still actively looking for trains with the system in their vehicle. However, two participants did not stop and one decided to beat the train when they did not receive the audio message, suggesting potential human factors issues to be considered with such technology.

A simulator evaluation of effects of assistive technologies on driver cognitive load at railway level crossings

Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) have the potential to substantially reduce the number of crashes caused by human errors at railway levels crossings. However, such systems could overwhelm drivers, generate different types of driver errors and have negative effects on safety at level crossing. The literature shows an increasing interest for new ITS for increasing driver situational awareness at level crossings, as well as evaluations of such new systems on compliance. To our knowledge, the potential negative effects of such technologies have not been comprehensively evaluated yet. This study aimed at assessing the effect of different ITS interventions, designed to enhance driver behaviour at railway crossings, on driver’s cognitive loads. Fifty eight participants took part in a driving simulator study in which three ITS devices were tested: an in-vehicle visual ITS, an in-vehicle audio ITS, and an on-road valet system. Driver cognitive load was objectively and subjectively assessed for each ITS intervention. Objective data were collected from a heart rate monitor and an eye tracker, while subjective data was collected with the NASA-TLX questionnaire. Overall, results indicated that the three trialled technologies did not result in significant changes in cognitive load while approaching crossings.

Experimental evaluation of the performance of 2×2 MIMO-OFDM for vehicle-to-infrastructure communications

In this paper, a novel 2×2 multiple-input multiple-output orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (MIMO-OFDM) testbed based on an Analog Devices AD9361 highly integrated radio frequency (RF) agile transceiver was specifically implemented for the purpose of estimating and analyzing MIMO-OFDM channel capacity in vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) environments using the 920 MHz industrial, scientific, and medical (ISM) band. We implemented two-dimensional discrete cosine transform-based filtering to reduce the channel estimation errors and show its effectiveness on our measurement results. We have also analyzed the effects of channel estimation error on the MIMO channel capacity by simulation. Three different scenarios of subcarrier spacing were investigated which correspond to IEEE 802.11p, Long-Term Evolution (LTE), and Digital Video Broadcasting Terrestrial (DVB-T)(2k) standards. An extensive MIMO-OFDM V2I channel measurement campaign was performed in a suburban environment. Analysis of the measured MIMO channel capacity results as a function of the transmitter-to-receiver (TX-RX) separation distance up to 250 m shows that the variance of the MIMO channel capacity is larger for the near-range line-of-sight (LOS) scenarios than for the long-range non-LOS cases, using a fixed receiver signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) criterion. We observed that the largest capacity values were achieved at LOS propagation despite the common assumption of a degenerated MIMO channel in LOS. We consider that this is due to the large angular spacing between MIMO subchannels which occurs when the receiver vehicle rooftop antennas pass by the fixed transmitter antennas at close range, causing MIMO subchannels to be orthogonal. In addition, analysis on the effects of different subcarrier spacings on MIMO-OFDM channel capacity showed negligible differences in mean channel capacity for the subcarrier spacing range investigated. Measured channels described in this paper are available on request.

Evaluation of protein bait laced with various insecticides on the Queensland fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae): Attraction, feeding, mortality and bait persistence

The use of malathion in fruit fly protein bait sprays has raised serious concerns due to its adverse effects on non-target organisms. This has necessitated the evaluation of novel reduced-risk compounds. This study evaluated the effects of spinosad, fipronil, malathion and chlorpyrifos mixed with fruit fly protein bait (Mauri Pinnacle protein®) on attraction, feeding and mortality of the Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni (Froggatt). The effects of outdoor weathering of these mixtures on fly mortality were also determined. In field-cage experiment, protein-starved flies showed the same level of attraction to baits containing spinosad, fipronil, malathion, chlorpyrifos and protein alone used as control. Female protein-starved flies were deterred from feeding on baits containing malathion and chlorpyrifos compared to baits containing spinosad, fipronil and protein alone. Baits containing malathion and chlorpyrifos caused higher fly mortality and rapid fly knock down than spinosad and fipronil. However, spinosad acted slowly and caused an increase in fly mortality over time, causing up to 90% fly mortality after 72-h. Baits containing malathion and chlorpyrifos, applied on citrus leaves and weathered outdoors, had longer residual effectiveness in killing flies than spinosad and fipronil. Residual effectiveness of the spinosad bait mixture waned significantly after 3 days of outdoor weathering. Results suggest that spinosad and fipronil can be potential alternatives for malathion in protein bait sprays.

An evaluation of the effectiveness of Value-at-Risk (VaR) models for Australian banks under Basel III

This study compares Value-at-Risk (VaR) measures for Australian banks over a period that includes the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) to determine whether the methodology and parameter selection are important for capital adequacy holdings that will ultimately support a bank in a crisis period. VaR methodology promoted under Basel II was largely criticised during the GFC for its failure to capture downside risk. However, results from this study indicate that 1-year parametric and historical models produce better measures of VaR than models with longer time frames. VaR estimates produced using Monte Carlo simulations show a high percentage of violations but with lower average magnitude of a violation when they occur. VaR estimates produced by the ARMA GARCH model also show a relatively high percentage of violations, however, the average magnitude of a violation is quite low. Our findings support the design of the revised Basel II VaR methodology which has also been adopted under Basel III.

Economic evaluation of the upselling prevention pilot

The aim of this report was to present findings of an economic evaluation of the UP Pilot. A decision analytic model was used to examine the monetary cost of offering each of the four interventions in the UP Pilot against success measures. The evaluation also included subgroup analysis by demographic groups to offer insights into groups that are more resistant to undertaking preventive actions, with the possibility of further research to better understand client motivation for undertaking preventive behaviour. Based on the evaluation, this report makes recommendations for further investment and implementation of the UP Pilot.

Limited utility of exercise stress testing in the evaluation of suspected acute coronary syndrome in patients aged less than 40 years with intermediate risk features

Objective National guidelines for management of intermediate risk patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome, in whom AMI has been excluded, advocate provocative testing to final risk stratify these patients into low risk (negative testing) or high risk (positive testing suggestive of unstable angina). Adults less than 40 years have a low pretest probability of acute coronary syndrome. The utility of exercise stress testing in young adults with chest pain suspected of acute coronary syndrome who have National Heart Foundation intermediate risk features was evaluated Methods A retrospective analysis of exercise stress testing performed on patients less than 40 years was evaluated. Patients were enrolled on a chest pain pathway and had negative serial ECGs and cardiac biomarkers before exercise stress testing to rule-out acute coronary syndrome. Chart review was completed on patients with positive stress tests. Results The 3987 patients with suspected intermediate risk acute coronary syndrome underwent exercise stress testing. One thousand and twenty-seven (25.8%) were aged less than 40 years (age 33.3 ± 4.8 years). Four of these 1027 patients had a positive exercise stress test (0.4% incidence of positive exercise stress testing). Of those, three patients had subsequent non-invasive functional testing that yielded a negative result. One patient declined further investigations. Assuming this was a true positive exercise stress test, the incidence of true positive exercise stress testing would have been 0.097% (95% confidence interval: 0.079–0.115%) (one of 1027 patients). Conclusions Routine exercise stress testing has limited value in the risk stratification of adults less than 40 years with suspected intermediate risk of acute coronary syndrome

Exposure risk assessment and evaluation of the best management practice for controlling pesticide runoff from paddy fields. Part 2: Model simulation for the herbicide pretilachlor

BACKGROUND: Monitoring studies revealed high concentrations of pesticides in the drainage canal of paddy fields. It is important to have a way to predict these concentrations in different management scenarios as an assessment tool. A simulation model for predicting the pesticide concentration in a paddy block (PCPF-B) was evaluated and then used to assess the effect of water management practices for controlling pesticide runoff from paddy fields. RESULTS: The PCPF-B model achieved an acceptable performance. The model was applied to a constrained probabilistic approach using the Monte Carlo technique to evaluate the best management practices for reducing runoff of pretilachlor into the canal. The probabilistic model predictions using actual data of pesticide use and hydrological data in the canal showed that the water holding period (WHP) and the excess water storage depth (EWSD) effectively reduced the loss and concentration of pretilachlor from paddy fields to the drainage canal. The WHP also reduced the timespan of pesticide exposure in the drainage canal. CONCLUSIONS: It is recommended that: (1) the WHP be applied for as long as possible, but for at least 7 days, depending on the pesticide and field conditions; (2) an EWSD greater than 2 cm be maintained to store substantial rainfall in order to prevent paddy runoff, especially during the WHP.