Accounting for management costs in sensitivity analyses of matrix population models

Traditional sensitivity and elasticity analyses of matrix population models have been used to inform management decisions, but they ignore the economic costs of manipulating vital rates. For example, the growth rate of a population is often most sensitive to changes in adult survival rate, but this does not mean that increasing that rate is the best option for managing the population because it may be much more expensive than other options. To explore how managers should optimize their manipulation of vital rates, we incorporated the cost of changing those rates into matrix population models. We derived analytic expressions for locations in parameter space where managers should shift between management of fecundity and survival, for the balance between fecundity and survival management at those boundaries, and for the allocation of management resources to sustain that optimal balance. For simple matrices, the optimal budget allocation can often be expressed as simple functions of vital rates and the relative costs of changing them. We applied our method to management of the Helmeted Honeyeater (Lichenostomus melanops cassidix; an endangered Australian bird) and the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) as examples. Our method showed that cost-efficient management of the Helmeted Honeyeater should focus on increasing fecundity via nest protection, whereas optimal koala management should focus on manipulating both fecundity and survival simultaneously. These findings are contrary to the cost-negligent recommendations of elasticity analysis, which would suggest focusing on managing survival in both cases. A further investigation of Helmeted Honeyeater management options, based on an individual-based model incorporating density dependence, spatial structure, and environmental stochasticity, confirmed that fecundity management was the most cost-effective strategy. Our results demonstrate that decisions that ignore economic factors will reduce management efficiency. ©2006 Society for Conservation Biology.

A new registration method based on Log-Euclidean tensor metrics and its application to genetic studies

In structural brain MRI, group differences or changes in brain structures can be detected using Tensor-Based Morphometry (TBM). This method consists of two steps: (1) a non-linear registration step, that aligns all of the images to a common template, and (2) a subsequent statistical analysis. The numerous registration methods that have recently been developed differ in their detection sensitivity when used for TBM, and detection power is paramount in epidemological studies or drug trials. We therefore developed a new fluid registration method that computes the mappings and performs statistics on them in a consistent way, providing a bridge between TBM registration and statistics. We used the Log-Euclidean framework to define a new regularizer that is a fluid extension of the Riemannian elasticity, which assures diffeomorphic transformations. This regularizer constrains the symmetrized Jacobian matrix, also called the deformation tensor. We applied our method to an MRI dataset from 40 fraternal and identical twins, to revealed voxelwise measures of average volumetric differences in brain structure for subjects with different degrees of genetic resemblance.

Estimating the potential impact of entry fees for marine parks on dive tourism in South East Asia

Marine reserves are increasingly being established as a mechanism to protect marine biodiversity and sensitive habitats. As well as providing conservation benefits, marine reserves provide benefits to recreational scuba divers who dive within the reserve, as well as to recreational and commercial fishers outside the reserve through spill-over effects. To ensure benefits are being realised, management of marine reserves requires ongoing monitoring and surveillance. These are not costless, and many marine reserve managers impose an entry fee. In some countries, dive tourism is major income source to coastal industries, and a concern is that high entry fees may dissuade divers. In this paper, the price elasticity of demand for dive tourism in three countries in South East Asia – Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia – is estimated using a travel-cost model. From the model, the total non-market use value associated with diving in the area is estimated to be in the order of US$4.5 billion a year. The price elasticity of demand in the region is highly inelastic, such that increasing the cost of diving through a management levy would have little impact on total diver numbers.

Exploring the nexus between tourism and output in Cook Islands: An ARDL bounds approach

Tourism plays an important role in the development of Cook Islands. In this paper we examine the nexus between tourism and growth using quarterly data over the period 2009Q1–2014Q2 using the recently upgraded ARDL bounds test to cointegration tool, Microfit 5.01, which provides sample adjusted bounds and hence is more reliable for small sample size studies. We perform the cointegration using the ARDL bounds test and examine the direction of causality. Using visitor arrival and output in per capita terms as respective proxy for tourism development and growth, we examine the long-run association and report the elasticity coefficient of tourism and causality nexus, accordingly. Using unit root break tests, we note that 2011Q1 and 2011Q2 are two structural break periods in the output series. However, we note that this period is not statistically significant in the ARDL model and hence excluded from the estimation. Subsequently, the regression results show the two series are cointegrated. The long-run elasticity coefficient of tourism is estimated to be 0.83 and the short-run is 0.73. A bidirectional causality between tourism and income is noted for Cook Islands which indicates that tourism development and income mutually reinforce each other. In light of this, socio-economic policies need to focus on broad-based, inclusive and income-generating tourism development projects which are expected to have feedback effect.

Exploring the role of energy, trade and financial development in explaining economic growth in South Africa: A revisit

South Africa is an emerging and industrializing economy which is experiencing remarkable progress. We contend that amidst the developments in the economy, the role of energy, trade openness and financial development are critical. In this article, we revisit the pivotal role of these factors. We use the ARDL bounds [72], the Bayer and Hanck [11] cointegration techniques, and an extended Cobb–Douglas framework, to examine the long-run association with output per worker over the sample period 1971–2011. The results support long-run association between output per worker, capital per worker and the shift parameters. The short-run elasticity coefficients are as follows: energy (0.24), trade (0.07), financial development (−0.03). In the long-run, the elasticity coefficients are: trade openness (0.05), energy (0.29), and financial development (−0.04). In both the short-run and the long-run, we note the post-2000 period has a marginal positive effect on the economy. The Toda and Yamamoto [91] Granger causality results show that a unidirectional causality from capital stock and energy consumption to output; and from capital stock to trade openness; a bidirectional causality between trade openness and output; and absence (neutrality) of any causality between financial development and output thus indicating that these two variables evolve independent of each other.

Significant deterioration in nanomechanical quality occurs through incomplete extrafibrillar mineralization in rachitic bone: Evidence from in-situ synchrotron X-ray scattering and backscattered electron imaging

Bone diseases such as rickets and osteoporosis cause significant reduction in bone quantity and quality, which leads to mechanical abnormalities. However, the precise ultrastructural mechanism by which altered bone quality affects mechanical properties is not clearly understood. Here we demonstrate the functional link between altered bone quality (reduced mineralization) and abnormal fibrillar-level mechanics using a novel, real-time synchrotron X-ray nanomechanical imaging method to study a mouse model with rickets due to reduced extrafibrillar mineralization. A previously unreported N-ethyl-N-nitrosourea (ENU) mouse model for hypophosphatemic rickets (Hpr), as a result of missense Trp314Arg mutation of the phosphate regulating gene with homologies to endopeptidase on the X chromosome (Phex) and with features consistent with X-linked hypophosphatemic rickets (XLHR) in man, was investigated using in situ synchrotron small angle X-ray scattering to measure real-time changes in axial periodicity of the nanoscale mineralized fibrils in bone during tensile loading. These determine nanomechanical parameters including fibril elastic modulus and maximum fibril strain. Mineral content was estimated using backscattered electron imaging. A significant reduction of effective fibril modulus and enhancement of maximum fibril strain was found in Hpr mice. Effective fibril modulus and maximum fibril strain in the elastic region increased consistently with age in Hpr and wild-type mice. However, the mean mineral content was ∼21% lower in Hpr mice and was more heterogeneous in its distribution. Our results are consistent with a nanostructural mechanism in which incompletely mineralized fibrils show greater extensibility and lower stiffness, leading to macroscopic outcomes such as greater bone flexibility. Our study demonstrates the value of in situ X-ray nanomechanical imaging in linking the alterations in bone nanostructure to nanoscale mechanical deterioration in a metabolic bone disease. Copyright

Study on the elastic-plastic behavior of a porous hierarchical bioscaffold used for bone regeneration

A perfectly plastic von Mises model is proposed to study the elastic-plastic behavior of a porous hierarchical scaffold used for bone regeneration. The proposed constitutive model is implemented in a finite element (FE) routine to obtain the stress-strain relationship of a uniaxially loaded cube of the scaffold, whose constituent is considered to be composed of cortical bone. The results agree well with experimental data for uniaxial loading case of a cancellous bone. We find that the unhomogenized stress distribution results in different mechanical properties from but still comparable to our previous theory. The scaffold is a promising candidate for bone regeneration.

A new method for the in vivo identification of mechanical properties in arteries from cine MRI images: Theoretical framework and validation

Quantifying the stiffness properties of soft tissues is essential for the diagnosis of many cardiovascular diseases such as atherosclerosis. In these pathologies it is widely agreed that the arterial wall stiffness is an indicator of vulnerability. The present paper focuses on the carotid artery and proposes a new inversion methodology for deriving the stiffness properties of the wall from cine-MRI (magnetic resonance imaging) data. We address this problem by setting-up a cost function defined as the distance between the modeled pixel signals and the measured ones. Minimizing this cost function yields the unknown stiffness properties of both the arterial wall and the surrounding tissues. The sensitivity of the identified properties to various sources of uncertainty is studied. Validation of the method is performed on a rubber phantom. The elastic modulus identified using the developed methodology lies within a mean error of 9.6%. It is then applied to two young healthy subjects as a proof of practical feasibility, with identified values of 625 kPa and 587 kPa for one of the carotid of each subject.

Influence of surface stress on elastic constants of nanohoneycombs

Surface effect on the four independent elastic constants of nanohoneycombs is investigated in this paper. The axial deformation of the horizontal cell wall is included, comparing to the Gibson's method, and the contributions of the two components of surface stress (i.e. surface residual stress and surface elasticity) are discussed. The result shows that the regular hexagonal honeycomb is not isotropic but orthotropic. An increase in the cell-wall thickness t leads to an increase in the discrepancy of the Young's moduli in both directions. Furthermore, the surface residual stress dominates the surface effect on the elastic constants when t < 15 nm (or the relative density <0.17), which is in contrast to that the surface elasticity does when t > 15 nm (or the relative density > 0.17) for metal Al. The present structure and theory may be useful in the design of future nanodevices.

Finite element modelling of lamb wave propagation in prestress concrete and effect of the prestress force on the wave’s characteristic

In order to assess the structural reliability of bridges, an accurate and cost effective Non-Destructive Evaluation (NDE) technology is required to ensure their safe and reliable operation. Over 60% of the Australian National Highway System is prestressed concrete (PSC) bridges according to the Bureau of Transport and Communication Economics (1997). Most of the in-service bridges are more than 30 years old and may experience a heavier traffic load than their original intended level. Use of Ultrasonic waves is continuously increasing for (NDE) and Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) in civil, aerospace, electrical, mechanical applications. Ultrasonic Lamb waves are becoming more popular for NDE because it can propagate long distance and reach hidden regions with less energy loses. The purpose of this study is to numerically quantify prestress force (PSF) of (PSC) beam using the fundamental theory of acoustic-elasticity. A three-dimension finite element modelling approach is set up to perform parametric studies in order to better understand how the lamb wave propagation in PSC beam is affected by changing in the PSF level. Results from acoustic-elastic measurement on prestressed beam are presented, showing the feasibility of the lamb wave for PSF evaluation in PSC bridges.

Carbon dioxide emissions in the short run: The rate and sources of economic growth matter

This paper investigates the short-run effects of economic growth on carbon dioxide emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels and the manufacture of cement for 189 countries over the period 1961-2010. Contrary to what has previously been reported, we conclude that there is no strong evidence that the emissions-income elasticity is larger during individual years of economic expansion as compared to recession. Significant evidence of asymmetry emerges when effects over longer periods are considered. We find that economic growth tends to increase emissions not only in the same year, but also in subsequent years. Delayed effects - especially noticeable in the road transport sector - mean that emissions tend to grow more quickly after booms and more slowly after recessions. Emissions are more sensitive to fluctuations in industrial value added than agricultural value added, with services being an intermediate case. On the expenditure side, growth in consumption and growth in investment have similar implications for national emissions. External shocks have a relatively large emissions impact, and the short-run emissions-income elasticity does not appear to decline as incomes increase. Economic growth and emissions have been more tightly linked in fossil-fuel rich countries.

Improving food supply

Improving the availability, accessibility and affordability of healthy food equitably is fundamental to improving nutrition and health. While theoretical models abound, in real world complex systems rarely are there opportunities to address leverage points systematically to improve food supply. This presentation describes efforts over the last 30 years to do just that by remote Australian Aboriginal communities, where a single community store is usually the major dietary source. Areas addressed include store governance and infrastructure, wholesale supply, transport and pricing policies including cross-subsidization. However, while there have been dramatic improvements in the availability, quality and price of fruit, vegetables and most other healthy foods over this time, the proportion of communities' energy intake from energy-dense nutrient-poor foods and drinks has increased. One cause may be the disproportionate increase in supply of unhealthy choices in terms of variety and shelf-space, consistent with changes in the food supply in broader Australia. The impact of changing social and environmental factors, food preferences and price elasticity will also be explored briefly. Clearly much more needs to be done to reduce the high prevalence of diet-related chronic disease in some vulnerable groups. In particular, efforts to continually improve the availability and affordability of healthy food also need to address the predominance of unhealthy choices in the food supply.

Economics of tourism & growth for small island countries

We theoretically analyze the impact of changes in foreign income from tourism source countries on the growth of tourism dependent small island economies. Using a general theoretical construct, we attempt to answer the question of how price elasticity of demand, income elasticity of tourist and the degree of competition in the service sector influence the economic development of small economies. One of the main results is that politicians may consider applying policies which lead to a competitive environment in the service sector to maximize growth and the consequent labor income share.