Prognosis of bearing failure based on health state estimation

This paper proposes a new prognosis model based on the technique for health state estimation of machines for accurate assessment of the remnant life. For the evaluation of health stages of machines, the Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier was employed to obtain the probability of each health state. Two case studies involving bearing failures were used to validate the proposed model. Simulated bearing failure data and experimental data from an accelerated bearing test rig were used to train and test the model. The result obtained is very encouraging and shows that the proposed prognostic model produces promising results and has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for machine remnant life prediction.

Nutritional status and information needs of medical oncology patients receiving treatment at an Australian public hospital

This study aimed to identify: i) the prevalence of malnutrition according to the scored Patient Generated-Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA); ii) utilization of available nutrition resources; iii) patient nutrition information needs; and iv) external sources of nutrition information. An observational, cross-sectional study was undertaken at an Australian public hospital on 191 patients receiving oncology services. According to PG-SGA, 49% of patients were malnourished and 46% required improved symptom management and/or nutrition intervention. Commonly reported nutrition-impact symptoms included: peculiar tastes (31%), no appetite (24%) and nausea (24%). External sources of nutrition information were accessed by 37%, with popular choices being media/internet (n=19) and family/friends (n=13). In a sub-sample (n=65), 32 patients were aware of the available nutrition resources, 23 thought the information sufficient and 19 patients had actually read them. Additional information on supplements and modifying side effects was requested by 26 patients. Malnutrition is common in oncology patients receiving treatment at an Australian public hospital and almost half require improved symptom management and/or nutrition intervention. Patients who read the available nutrition information found it useful, however awareness of these nutrition resources and the provision of information on supplementation and managing symptoms requires attention.

A fully Bayesian approach to inference for Coxian phase-type distributions with covariate dependent mean

Phase-type distributions represent the time to absorption for a finite state Markov chain in continuous time, generalising the exponential distribution and providing a flexible and useful modelling tool. We present a new reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme for performing a fully Bayesian analysis of the popular Coxian subclass of phase-type models; the convenient Coxian representation involves fewer parameters than a more general phase-type model. The key novelty of our approach is that we model covariate dependence in the mean whilst using the Coxian phase-type model as a very general residual distribution. Such incorporation of covariates into the model has not previously been attempted in the Bayesian literature. A further novelty is that we also propose a reversible jump scheme for investigating structural changes to the model brought about by the introduction of Erlang phases. Our approach addresses more questions of inference than previous Bayesian treatments of this model and is automatic in nature. We analyse an example dataset comprising lengths of hospital stays of a sample of patients collected from two Australian hospitals to produce a model for a patient's expected length of stay which incorporates the effects of several covariates. This leads to interesting conclusions about what contributes to length of hospital stay with implications for hospital planning. We compare our results with an alternative classical analysis of these data.

Vision, functional and cognitive determinants of motor vehicle incidents in older drivers

Background: The proportion of older individuals in the driving population is predicted to increase in the next 50 years. This has important implications for driving safety as abilities which are important for safe driving, such as vision (which accounts for the majority of the sensory input required for driving), processing ability and cognition have been shown to decline with age. The current methods employed for screening older drivers upon re-licensure are also vision based. This study, which investigated social, behavioural and professional aspects involved with older drivers, aimed to determine: (i) if the current visual standards in place for testing upon re-licensure are effective in reducing the older driver fatality rate in Australia; (ii) if the recommended visual standards are actually implemented as part of the testing procedures by Australian optometrists; and (iii) if there are other non-standardised tests which may be better at predicting the on-road incident-risk (including near misses and minor incidents) in older drivers than those tests recommended in the standards. Methods: For the first phase of the study, state-based age- and gender-stratified numbers of older driver fatalities for 2000-2003 were obtained from the Australian Transportation Safety Bureau database. Poisson regression analyses of fatality rates were considered by renewal frequency and jurisdiction (as separate models), adjusting for possible confounding variables of age, gender and year. For the second phase, all practising optometrists in Australia were surveyed on the vision tests they conduct in consultations relating to driving and their knowledge of vision requirements for older drivers. Finally, for the third phase of the study to investigate determinants of on-road incident risk, a stratified random sample of 600 Brisbane residents aged 60 years and were selected and invited to participate using an introductory letter explaining the project requirements. In order to capture the number and type of road incidents which occurred for each participant over 12 months (including near misses and minor incidents), an important component of the prospective research study was the development and validation of a driving diary. The diary was a tool in which incidents that occurred could be logged at that time (or very close in time to which they occurred) and thus, in comparison with relying on participant memory over time, recall bias of incident occurrence was minimised. Association between all visual tests, cognition and scores obtained for non-standard functional tests with retrospective and prospective incident occurrence was investigated. Results: In the first phase,rivers aged 60-69 years had a 33% lower fatality risk (Rate Ratio [RR] = 0.75, 95% CI 0.32-1.77) in states with vision testing upon re-licensure compared with states with no vision testing upon re-licensure, however, because the CIs are wide, crossing 1.00, this result should be regarded with caution. However, overall fatality rates and fatality rates for those aged 70 years and older (RR=1.17, CI 0.64-2.13) did not differ between states with and without license renewal procedures, indicating no apparent benefit in vision testing legislation. For the second phase of the study, nearly all optometrists measured visual acuity (VA) as part of a vision assessment for re-licensing, however, 20% of optometrists did not perform any visual field (VF) testing and only 20% routinely performed automated VF on older drivers, despite the standards for licensing advocating automated VF as part of the vision standard. This demonstrates the need for more effective communication between the policy makers and those responsible for carrying out the standards. It may also indicate that the overall higher driver fatality rate in jurisdictions with vision testing requirements is resultant as the tests recommended by the standards are only partially being conducted by optometrists. Hence a standardised protocol for the screening of older drivers for re-licensure across the nation must be established. The opinions of Australian optometrists with regard to the responsibility of reporting older drivers who fail to meet the licensing standards highlighted the conflict between maintaining patient confidentiality or upholding public safety. Mandatory reporting requirements of those drivers who fail to reach the standards necessary for driving would minimise potential conflict between the patient and their practitioner, and help maintain patient trust and goodwill. The final phase of the PhD program investigated the efficacy of vision, functional and cognitive tests to discriminate between at-risk and safe older drivers. Nearly 80% of the participants experienced an incident of some form over the prospective 12 months, with the total incident rate being 4.65/10 000 km. Sixty-three percent reported having a near miss and 28% had a minor incident. The results from the prospective diary study indicate that the current vision screening tests (VA and VF) used for re-licensure do not accurately predict older drivers who are at increased odds of having an on-road incident. However, the variation in visual measurements of the cohort was narrow, also affecting the results seen with the visual functon questionnaires. Hence a larger cohort with greater variability should be considered for a future study. A slightly lower cognitive level (as measured with the Mini-Mental State Examination [MMSE]) did show an association with incident involvement as did slower reaction time (RT), however the Useful-Field-of-View (UFOV) provided the most compelling results of the study. Cut-off values of UFOV processing (>23.3ms), divided attention (>113ms), selective attention (>258ms) and overall score (moderate/ high/ very high risk) were effective in determining older drivers at increased odds of having any on-road incident and the occurrence of minor incidents. Discussion: The results have shown that for the 60-69 year age-group, there is a potential benefit in testing vision upon licence renewal. However, overall fatality rates and fatality rates for those aged 70 years and older indicated no benefit in vision testing legislation and suggests a need for inclusion of screening tests which better predict on-road incidents. Although VA is routinely performed by Australian optometrists on older drivers renewing their licence, VF is not. Therefore there is a need for a protocol to be developed and administered which would result in standardised methods conducted throughout the nation for the screening of older drivers upon re-licensure. Communication between the community, policy makers and those conducting the protocol should be maximised. By implementing a standardised screening protocol which incorporates a level of mandatory reporting by the practitioner, the ethical dilemma of breaching patient confidentiality would also be resolved. The tests which should be included in this screening protocol, however, cannot solely be ones which have been implemented in the past. In this investigation, RT, MMSE and UFOV were shown to be better determinants of on-road incidents in older drivers than VA and VF, however, as previously mentioned, there was a lack of variability in visual status within the cohort. Nevertheless, it is the recommendation from this investigation, that subject to appropriate sensitivity and specificity being demonstrated in the future using a cohort with wider variation in vision, functional performance and cognition, these tests of cognition and information processing should be added to the current protocol for the screening of older drivers which may be conducted at licensing centres across the nation.

Teachers reporting suspected child sexual abuse : results of a three-state study

Over 3000 cases of child sexual abuse are identified every year in Australia, but the real incidence is higher still. As a strategy to identify child sexual abuse, Australian States and Territories have enacted legislation requiring members of selected professions, including teachers, to report suspected cases. In addition, policy-based reporting obligations have been developed by professions, including the teaching profession. These legislative and industry-based developments have occurred in a context of growing awareness of the incidence and consequences of child sexual abuse. Teachers have frequent contact and close relationships with children, and possess expertise in monitoring changes in children’s behaviour. Accordingly, teachers are seen as being well-placed to detect and report suspected child sexual abuse. To date, however, there has been little empirical research into the operation of these reporting duties. The extent of teachers’ awareness of their duties to report child sexual abuse is unknown. Further, there is little evidence about teachers’ past reporting practice. Teachers’ duties to report sexual abuse, especially those in legislation, differ between States, and it is not known whether or how these differences affect reporting practice. This article presents results from the first large-scale Australian survey of teachers in three States with different reporting laws: New South Wales, Queensland, and Western Australia. The results indicate levels of teacher knowledge of reporting duties, reveal evidence about past reporting practice, and provide insights into anticipated future reporting practice and legal compliance. The findings have implications for reform of legislation and policy, training of teachers about the reporting of child sexual abuse, and enhancement of child protection.

neXus2. An investigation into the library and information services workforce in Australia: The institutional perspective. Final report prepared for the Australian Library and Information Association and National and State Libraries Australia

The neXus2 research project has sought to investigate the library and information services (LIS) workforce in Australia, from the institutional or employer perspective. The study builds on the neXus1 study, which collected data from individuals in the LIS workforce in order to present a snapshot of the profession in 2006, highlighting the demographics, educational background and career details of library and information professionals in Australia. To counterbalance this individual perspective, library institutions were invited to participate in a survey to contribute further data as employers. This final report on the neXus2 project compares the findings from the different library sectors, ie academic libraries, TAFE libraries, the National and State libraries, public libraries, special libraries and school libraries.

Development and validation of 3-Minute Nutrition Screening (3-MinNS) tool for acute hospital patients in Singapore

It is important to detect and treat malnutrition in hospital patients so as to improve clinical outcome and reduce hospital stay. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a nutrition screening tool with a simple and quick scoring system for acute hospital patients in Singapore. In this study, 818 newly admitted patients aged above 18 years old were screened using five parameters that contribute to the risk of malnutrition. A dietitian blinded to the nutrition screening score assessed the same patients using the reference standard, Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) within 48 hours. The sensitivity and specificity were established using the Receiver Operator Characteristics (ROC) curve and the best cutoff scores determined. The nutrition parameter with the largest Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) was chosen as the final screening tool, which was named 3-Minute Nutrition Screening (3-MinNS). The combination of the parameters weight loss, intake and muscle wastage (3-MinNS), gave the largest AUC when compared with SGA. Using 3-MinNS, the best cutoff point to identify malnourished patients is three (sensitivity 86%, specificity 83%). The cutoff score to identify subjects at risk of severe malnutrition is five (sensitivity 93%, specificity 86%). 3-Minute Nutrition Screening is a valid, simple and rapid tool to identify patients at risk of malnutrition in Singapore acute hospital patients. It is able to differentiate patients at risk of moderate malnutrition and severe malnutrition for prioritization and management purposes.

State-of-the-Art Review on Opinion Mining from Online Customers’ Feedback

Dealing with the ever-growing information overload in the Internet, Recommender Systems are widely used online to suggest potential customers item they may like or find useful. Collaborative Filtering is the most popular techniques for Recommender Systems which collects opinions from customers in the form of ratings on items, services or service providers. In addition to the customer rating about a service provider, there is also a good number of online customer feedback information available over the Internet as customer reviews, comments, newsgroups post, discussion forums or blogs which is collectively called user generated contents. This information can be used to generate the public reputation of the service providers’. To do this, data mining techniques, specially recently emerged opinion mining could be a useful tool. In this paper we present a state of the art review of Opinion Mining from online customer feedback. We critically evaluate the existing work and expose cutting edge area of interest in opinion mining. We also classify the approaches taken by different researchers into several categories and sub-categories. Each of those steps is analyzed with their strength and limitations in this paper.

Stakeholder impact analysis of infrastructure project management in developing countries : a study of perception of project managers in state-owned engineering firms in Vietnam

Construction projects can involve a diverse range of stakeholders and the success of the project depends very much on fulfilling their needs and expectations. It is important, therefore, to identify and recognize project stakeholders and develop a rigorous stakeholder management process. However, limited research has investigated the impact of stakeholders on construction projects in developing countries. A stakeholder impact analysis (SIA), based on an approach developed by Olander (2007), was adopted to investigate the stakeholders' impact on state-owned civil engineering projects in Vietnam. This involved the analysis of a questionnaire survey of 57 project managers to determine the relative importance of different stakeholders. The results show the client to have the highest level of impact on the projects, followed by project managers and the senior management of state-owned engineering firms. The SIA also provides suggestions to project managers in developing and evaluating the stakeholder management process.

Cost-effectiveness of an intervention to reduce emergency re-admissions to hospital among older patients

Background. The objective is to estimate the cost-effectiveness of an intervention that reduces hospital readmission among older people at high risk. A cost-effectiveness model to estimate the costs and health benefits of the intervention was implemented. Methodology/Principal Findings. The model used data from a randomised controlled trial conducted in an Australian tertiary metropolitan hospital. Participants were acute medical admissions aged >65 years with at least one risk factor for readmission: multiple comorbidities, impaired functionality, aged >75 years, 30 recent multiple admissions, poor social support, history of depression. The intervention was a comprehensive nursing and physiotherapy assessment and an individually tailored program of exercise strategies and nurse home visits with telephone follow-up; commencing in hospital and continuing following discharge for 24 weeks. The change to cost outcomes, including the costs of implementing the intervention and all subsequent use of health care services, and, the change to health benefits, represented by quality adjusted life years, were estimated for the intervention as compared to existing practice. The mean change to total costs and quality 38 adjusted life years for an average individual over 24 weeks participating in the intervention were: cost savings of $333 (95% Bayesian credible interval $-1,932:1,282) and 0.118 extra quality adjusted life years (95% Bayesian credible interval 0.1:0.136). The mean net41 monetary-benefit per individual for the intervention group compared to the usual care condition was $7,907 (95% Bayesian credible interval $5,959:$9,995) for the 24 week period. Conclusions/Significance. The estimation model that describes this intervention predicts cost savings and improved health outcomes. A decision to remain with existing practices causes unnecessary costs and reduced health. Decision makers should consider adopting this 46 program for elderly hospitalised patients.

Temperature variation and emergency hospital admissions for stroke in Brisbane, Australia, 1996-2005

Stroke is a leading cause of disability and death. This study evaluated the association between temperature variation and emergency admissions for stroke in Brisbane, Australia. Daily emergency admissions for stroke, meteorologic and air pollution data were obtained for the period of January 1996 to December 2005. The relative risk of emergency admissions for stroke was estimated with a generalized estimating equations (GEE) model. For primary intracerebral hemorrhage (PIH) emergency admissions, the average daily PIH for the group aged < 65 increased by 15% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 5, 26%) and 12% (95% CI: 2, 22%) for a 1°C increase in daily maximum temperature and minimum temperature in summer, respectively, after controlling for potential confounding effects of humidity and air pollutants. For ischemic stroke (IS) emergency admissions, the average daily IS for the group aged ≥ 65 decreased by 3% (95% CI: -6, 0%) for a 1°C increase in daily maximum temperature in winter after adjustment for confounding factors. Temperature variation was significantly associated with emergency admissions for stroke, and its impact varied with different type of stroke. Health authorities should pay greater attention to possible increasing emergency care for strokes when temperature changes, in both summer and winter.

Natural enemies of Paropsis atomaria Olivier (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) in south-eastern Queensland eucalypt plantations

Abstract A field survey for natural enemies of Paropsis atomaria was conducted at two south-eastern Queensland Eucalyptus cloeziana plantation sites during 2004–2005. Primary egg and larval parasitoids and associated hyperparasitoids were identified to genus or species, and parasitism rates were determined throughout the season. Predators were identified to family level but their impact was not quantified. P. atomaria adults were also examined as potential hosts for parasitic mites and nematodes. An undescribed species of Neopolycystus (Pteromalidae) was the major primary egg parasitoid species reared from egg batches, parasitising half of all egg batches collected. Three hyperparasitoid species (Baeoanusia albifunicle (Encyrtidae), Neblatticida sp. (Encyrtidae) and Aphaneromella sp. (Platygasteridae) were present, representing around one-quarter to one-third of all emergent wasps; this is the first host association record for Neopolycystus–B. albifunicle. In contrast to populations of P. atomaria from the Australian Capital Territory, primary larval parasitism was very low, around 1%, and attributable only to the tachinid flies Anagonia sp. and Paropsivora sp. However, the presence of the sit-and-wait larval hyperparasitoid, Perilampus sp. (Perilampidae) was high, emerging from around 17% of tachinid pupae, with planidia infesting a further 40% of unparasitised hosts. Three species of podapolipid mites parasitised sexually mature P. atomaria adults, while no nematodes were found in this study. Spiders were the most common predators and their abundance was positively correlated with P. atomaria adult and egg numbers. Although natural enemy species composition was identical between our two study sites, significant differences in abundance and frequency were found between sites

Cosmopolitanism, the nation-state and imaginative realism

Contemporary writing on cosmopolitanism has asserted the need for a new sociological toolkit to deal with an emergent post-national social order. At the heart of this agenda is a misunderstanding about the role of the nation-state, which has led to some rather unhelpful theorizations. The state is assumed to be a dead hand in the development of post-national sentiments or an increasingly irrelevant social structure. We argue that the superseding of the nation-state is not necessary for the development of cosmopolitan sentiments of solidarity. In addition to classical sociology, it is work surrounding the concepts of cosmopolitan democracy and constitutional patriotism and the public sphere that can assist us in theorizing cosmopolitanism. What distinguishes this tradition is the utilization of social science concepts such as democracy, state, public sphere and law in an attempt to ground the idea of cosmopolitanism within the context of existing social structures.

Cardiac state diagnosis using higher order spectra of heart rate variability

Heart rate variability (HRV) refers to the regulation of the sinoatrial node, the natural pacemaker of the heart, by the sympathetic and parasympathetic branches of the autonomic nervous system. Heart rate variability analysis is an important tool to observe the heart's ability to respond to normal regulatory impulses that affect its rhythm. A computer-based intelligent system for analysis of cardiac states is very useful in diagnostics and disease management. Like many bio-signals, HRV signals are nonlinear in nature. Higher order spectral analysis (HOS) is known to be a good tool for the analysis of nonlinear systems and provides good noise immunity. In this work, we studied the HOS of the HRV signals of normal heartbeat and seven classes of arrhythmia. We present some general characteristics for each of these classes of HRV signals in the bispectrum and bicoherence plots. We also extracted features from the HOS and performed an analysis of variance (ANOVA) test. The results are very promising for cardiac arrhythmia classification with a number of features yielding a p-value < 0.02 in the ANOVA test.