Uncertainty budget in the measurement of typical airborne number, surface area and mass particle distributions

The effects of particulate matter on environment and public health have been widely studied in recent years. A number of studies in the medical field have tried to identify the specific effect on human health of particulate exposure, but agreement amongst these studies on the relative importance of the particles’ size and its origin with respect to health effects is still lacking. Nevertheless, air quality standards are moving, as the epidemiological attention, towards greater focus on the smaller particles. Current air quality standards only regulate the mass of particulate matter less than 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) and less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5). The most reliable method used in measuring Total Suspended Particles (TSP), PM10, PM2.5 and PM1 is the gravimetric method since it directly measures PM concentration, guaranteeing an effective traceability to international standards. This technique however, neglects the possibility to correlate short term intra-day variations of atmospheric parameters that can influence ambient particle concentration and size distribution (emission strengths of particle sources, temperature, relative humidity, wind direction and speed and mixing height) as well as human activity patterns that may also vary over time periods considerably shorter than 24 hours. A continuous method to measure the number size distribution and total number concentration in the range 0.014 – 20 μm is the tandem system constituted by a Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer (SMPS) and an Aerodynamic Particle Sizer (APS). In this paper, an uncertainty budget model of the measurement of airborne particle number, surface area and mass size distributions is proposed and applied for several typical aerosol size distributions. The estimation of such an uncertainty budget presents several difficulties due to i) the complexity of the measurement chain, ii) the fact that SMPS and APS can properly guarantee the traceability to the International System of Measurements only in terms of number concentration. In fact, the surface area and mass concentration must be estimated on the basis of separately determined average density and particle morphology. Keywords: SMPS-APS tandem system, gravimetric reference method, uncertainty budget, ultrafine particles.

Theoretical and numerical investigation of plasmon nanofocusing in metallic tapered rods and grooves

Effective focusing of electromagnetic (EM) energy to nanoscale regions is one of the major challenges in nano-photonics and plasmonics. The strong localization of the optical energy into regions much smaller than allowed by the diffraction limit, also called nanofocusing, offers promising applications in nano-sensor technology, nanofabrication, near-field optics or spectroscopy. One of the most promising solutions to the problem of efficient nanofocusing is related to surface plasmon propagation in metallic structures. Metallic tapered rods, commonly used as probes in near field microscopy and spectroscopy, are of a particular interest. They can provide very strong EM field enhancement at the tip due to surface plasmons (SP’s) propagating towards the tip of the tapered metal rod. A large number of studies have been devoted to the manufacturing process of tapered rods or tapered fibers coated by a metal film. On the other hand, structures such as metallic V-grooves or metal wedges can also provide strong electric field enhancements but manufacturing of these structures is still a challenge. It has been shown, however, that the attainable electric field enhancement at the apex in the V-groove is higher than at the tip of a metal tapered rod when the dissipation level in the metal is strong. Metallic V-grooves also have very promising characteristics as plasmonic waveguides. This thesis will present a thorough theoretical and numerical investigation of nanofocusing during plasmon propagation along a metal tapered rod and into a metallic V-groove. Optimal structural parameters including optimal taper angle, taper length and shape of the taper are determined in order to achieve maximum field enhancement factors at the tip of the nanofocusing structure. An analytical investigation of plasmon nanofocusing by metal tapered rods is carried out by means of the geometric optics approximation (GOA), which is also called adiabatic nanofocusing. However, GOA is applicable only for analysing tapered structures with small taper angles and without considering a terminating tip structure in order to neglect reflections. Rigorous numerical methods are employed for analysing non-adiabatic nanofocusing, by tapered rod and V-grooves with larger taper angles and with a rounded tip. These structures cannot be studied by analytical methods due to the presence of reflected waves from the taper section, the tip and also from (artificial) computational boundaries. A new method is introduced to combine the advantages of GOA and rigorous numerical methods in order to reduce significantly the use of computational resources and yet achieve accurate results for the analysis of large tapered structures, within reasonable calculation time. Detailed comparison between GOA and rigorous numerical methods will be carried out in order to find the critical taper angle of the tapered structures at which GOA is still applicable. It will be demonstrated that optimal taper angles, at which maximum field enhancements occur, coincide with the critical angles, at which GOA is still applicable. It will be shown that the applicability of GOA can be substantially expanded to include structures which could be analysed previously by numerical methods only. The influence of the rounded tip, the taper angle and the role of dissipation onto the plasmon field distribution along the tapered rod and near the tip will be analysed analytically and numerically in detail. It will be demonstrated that electric field enhancement factors of up to ~ 2500 within nanoscale regions are predicted. These are sufficient, for instance, to detect single molecules using surface enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS) with the tip of a tapered rod, an approach also known as tip enhanced Raman spectroscopy or TERS. The results obtained in this project will be important for applications for which strong local field enhancement factors are crucial for the performance of devices such as near field microscopes or spectroscopy. The optimal design of nanofocusing structures, at which the delivery of electromagnetic energy to the nanometer region is most efficient, will lead to new applications in near field sensors, near field measuring technology, or generation of nanometer sized energy sources. This includes: applications in tip enhanced Raman spectroscopy (TERS); manipulation of nanoparticles and molecules; efficient coupling of optical energy into and out of plasmonic circuits; second harmonic generation in non-linear optics; or delivery of energy to quantum dots, for instance, for quantum computations.

Assessment of Health Impacts of Heatwaves in Brisbane, Australia : How to Best Define A Heatwave?

Background and Objective: As global warming continues, the frequency, intensity and duration of heatwaves are likely to increase. However, a heatwave is unlikely to be defined uniformly because acclimatisation plays a significant role in determining the heat-related impact. This study investigated how to best define a heatwave in Brisbane, Australia. Methods: Computerised datasets on daily weather, air pollution and health outcomes between 1996 and 2005 were obtained from pertinent government agencies. Paired t-tests and case-crossover analyses were performed to assess the relationship between heatwaves and health outcomes using different heatwave definitions. Results: The maximum temperature was as high as 41.5°C with a mean maximum daily temperature of 26.3°C. None of the five commonly-used heatwave definitions suited Brisbane well on the basis of the health effects of heatwaves. Additionally, there were pros and cons when locally-defined definitions were attempted using either a relative or absolute definition for extreme temperatures. Conclusion: The issue of how to best define a heatwave is complex. It is important to identify an appropriate definition of heatwave locally and to understand its health effects.

The utility and challenges of using ICD codes in child maltreatment research : a review of existing literature

Objective: The objectives of this article are to explore the extent to which the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD) has been used in child abuse research, to describe how the ICD system has been applied and to assess factors affecting the reliability of ICD coded data in child abuse research.----- Methods: PubMed, CINAHL, PsychInfo and Google Scholar were searched for peer reviewed articles written since 1989 that used ICD as the classification system to identify cases and research child abuse using health databases. Snowballing strategies were also employed by searching the bibliographies of retrieved references to identify relevant associated articles. The papers identified through the search were independently screened by two authors for inclusion, resulting in 47 studies selected for the review. Due to heterogeneity of studies metaanalysis was not performed.----- Results: This paper highlights both utility and limitations of ICD coded data. ICD codes have been widely used to conduct research into child maltreatment in health data systems. The codes appear to be used primarily to determine child maltreatment patterns within identified diagnoses or to identify child maltreatment cases for research.----- Conclusions: A significant impediment to the use of ICD codes in child maltreatment research is the under-ascertainment of child maltreatment by using coded data alone. This is most clearly identified and, to some degree, quantified, in research where data linkage is used. Practice Implications: The importance of improved child maltreatment identification will assist in identifying risk factors and creating programs that can prevent and treat child maltreatment and assist in meeting reporting obligations under the CRC.

Recruiting older adults to health research studies : a systematic review

Objective: To provide a systematic review of papers comparing the effectiveness of different strategies to recruit older adults (aged 50 years and over) to participate in health research studies, to guide successful recruitment in future research. Methods: Four major databases were searched for papers published between 1995 and 2008 with: target group aged 50 years or over; participants allocated to receive one of two or more recruitment strategies; and an outcome measure of response rate or enrolment in study. Results: Twelve papers were included in the review. Conclusion: For postal questionnaires, recruitment strategies used with older adults had comparable outcomes to those used to recruit from the general population. For other types of studies, strategies involving face-to-face contact may be more effective than indirect methods, but this needs to be balanced against feasibility. Overall, little evidence on the topic exists and more rigorous investigation is necessary.

Searching the self in Seoul : trans-youth and urban social networking in Korea

This paper presents a brief analysis of Seoul trans-youth’s search for identity through urban social networking, arguing that technological, socio-cultural and environmental (urban) contexts frame how mobility and ubiquity are (re)created in Seoul. The paper is empirically based on fieldwork conducted in Seoul, South Korea, from 2007 to 2008 as part of a research project on the mobile play culture of Seoul trans-youth(a term that will be explained in detail in the following section). Shared Visual Ethnography (SVE) was used as the research method which involved sharing of visual ethnographic data that were created by the participants. More specifically, the participants were asked to take photos, which were then shared and discussed with other participants and the researcher on the photo-sharing service Flickr. The research also involved a questionnaire and daily activity diaries, as well as interviews. A total of 44 Korean transyouths – including 23 females and 21 males – participated in interviews and photo-sharing. The paper draws specifically on the qualitative data from individual and/or group interviews, the total duration of which was 2–2.5 hours for each participant.

The nature and extent of policing alcohol related crime and reducing violence in and around late night entertainment areas

The misuse of alcohol is well documented in Australia and has been associated with disorders and harms that often require police attention. The extent of alcohol-related incidents requiring police attention has been recorded as substantial in some Australian cities (Arro, Crook, & Fenton, 1992; Davey & French, 1995; Ireland & Thommeny, 1993). A significant proportion of harmful drinking occurs in and around licensed premises (Jochelson, 1997; Stockwell, Masters, Phillips, Daly, Gahegan, Midford, & Philp, 1998; Borges, Cherpitel, & Rosovsky, 1998) and most of these incidents are not reported to police (Bryant & Williams, 2000; Lister, Hobbs, Hall, & Winlow, 2000). Alcohol-related incidents have also been found to be concentrated in certain places at certain times (Jochelson, 1997) and therefore manipulating the context in which these incidents occur may provide a means to prevent and reduce the harm associated with alcohol misuse. One of the major objectives of the present program of research was to investigate the occurrence and resource impact of alcohol-related incidents on operational (general duties) policing across a large geographical area. A second objective of the thesis was to examine the characteristics and temporal/spatial dynamics of police attended alcohol incidents in the context of Place Based theories of crime. It was envisaged that this approach would reveal the patterns of the most prevalent offences and demonstrate the relevance of Place Based theories of crime to understanding these patterns. In addition, the role of alcohol, time and place were also explored in order to examine the association between non criminal traffic offences and other types of criminal offences. A final objective of the thesis was to examine the impact of a situational crime prevention strategy that had been initiated to reduce the violence and disorder associated with late-night liquor trading premises. The program of research in this doctorate thesis has been undertaken through the presentation of published papers. The research was conducted in three stages which produced six manuscripts, five of which were submitted to peer reviewed journals and one that was published in a peer reviewed conference proceedings. Stage One included two studies (Studies 1 & 2) both of which involved a cross sectional approach to examine the prevalence and characteristics of alcohol-related incidents requiring police attendance across three large geographical areas that included metropolitan cities, provincial regions and rural areas. Stage Two of the program of research also comprised two cross sectional quantitative studies (Studies 3 & 4) that investigated the temporal and spatial dynamics of the major offence categories attended by operational police in a specific Police District (Gold Coast). Stage Three of the program of research involved two studies (Studies 5 & 6) that assessed the effectiveness of a situational crime prevention strategy. The studies employed a pre-post design to assess the impact on crime, disorder and violence by preventing patrons from entering late-night liquor trading premises between 3 a.m. and 5 a.m. (lockout policy). Although Study Five was solely quantitative in nature, Study Six included both quantitative and qualitative aspects. The approach adopted in Study Six, therefore facilitated not only a quantative comparison of the impact of the lockout policy on different policing areas, but also enabled the processes related to the implementation of the lockout policy to be examined. The thesis reports a program of research involving a common data collection method which then involved a series of studies being conducted to explore different aspects of the data. The data was collected from three sources. Firstly a pilot phase was undertaken to provide participants with training. Secondly a main study period was undertaken immediately following the pilot phase. The first and second sources of data were collected between 29th March 2004 and 2nd May 2004. Thirdly, additional data was collected between the 1st April 2005 and 31st May 2005. Participants in the current program of research were first response operational police officers who completed a modified activity log over a 9 week period (4 week pilot phase & 5 week survey study phase), identifying the type, prevalence and characteristics of alcohol-related incidents that were attended. During the study period police officers attended 31,090 alcohol-related incidents. Studies One and Two revealed that a substantial proportion of current police work involves attendance at alcohol-related incidents (i.e., 25% largely involving young males aged between 17 and 24 years). The most common incidents police attended were vehicle and/or traffic matters, disturbances and offences against property. The major category of offences most likely to involve alcohol included vehicle/traffic matters, disturbances and offences against the person (e.g., common & serious assaults). These events were most likely to occur in the late evenings and early hours of the morning on the weekends, and importantly, usually took longer for police to complete than non alcohol-related incidents. The findings in Studies Three and Four suggest that serious traffic offences, disturbances and offences against the person share similar characteristics and occur in concentrated places at similar times. In addition, it was found that time, place and incident type all have an influence on whether an incident attended by a police officer is alcohol-related. Alcohol-related incidents are more likely to occur in particular locations in the late evenings and early mornings on the weekends. In particular, there was a strong association between the occurrence of alcohol-related disturbances and alcohol-related serious traffic offences in regards to place and time. In general, stealing and property offences were not alcohol-related and occurred in daylight hours during weekdays. The results of Studies Five and Six were mixed. A number of alcohol-related offences requiring police attention were significantly reduced for some policing areas and for some types of offences following the implementation of the lockout policy. However, in some locations the lockout policy appeared to have a negative or minimal impact. Interviews with licensees revealed that although all were initially opposed to the lockout policy as they believed it would have a negative impact on business, most perceived some benefits from its introduction. Some of the benefits included, improved patron safety and the development of better business strategies to increase patron numbers. In conclusion, the overall findings of the six studies highlight the pervasive nature of alcohol across a range of criminal incidents, demonstrating the tremendous impact alcohol-related incidents have on police. The findings also demonstrate the importance of time and place in predicting the occurrence of alcohol-related offences. Although this program of research did not set out to test Place Based theories of crime, these theories were used to inform the interpretation of findings. The findings in the current research program provide evidence for the relevance of Place Based theories of crime to understanding the factors contributing to violence and disorder, and designing relevant crime prevention strategies. For instance, the results in Studies Five and Six provide supportive evidence that this novel lockout initiative can be beneficial for public safety by reducing some types of offences in particular areas in and around late-night liquor trading premises. Finally, intelligent-led policing initiatives based on problem oriented policing, such as the lockout policy examined in this thesis, have potential as a major crime prevention technique to reduce specific types of alcohol-related offences.

Means of achieving Business Process Management success factors

Business Process Management (BPM) in recent years has become a highest priority area for most organizations. Since this concept is multidisciplinary, success in this endeavour requires considering different factors. A number of studies have been conducted to identify these factors; however, most are limited to the introduction of high-level factors or to the identification of the means of success within only a specific context. This paper presents a holistic framework of success factors as well as the associated means for achieving success. This framework introduces nine factors, namely culture, leadership, communication, Information Technology, strategic alignment, people, project management, performance measurement and methodology. Each of these factors are characterized further by defining some sub-constructs and under each sub construct the means for achieving success are also introduced. This framework including means for achieving success can be useful for BPM project stakeholders in adequately planning the initiative and checking the progress during the implementation.

Learning in the third space : a sociocultural perspective on learning with analogies

Research on analogies in science education has focussed on student interpretation of teacher and textbook analogies, psychological aspects of learning with analogies and structured approaches for teaching with analogies. Few studies have investigated how analogies might be pivotal in students’ growing participation in chemical discourse. To study analogies in this way requires a sociocultural perspective on learning that focuses on ways in which language, signs, symbols and practices mediate participation in chemical discourse. This study reports research findings from a teacher-research study of two analogy-writing activities in a chemistry class. The study began with a theoretical model, Third Space, which informed analyses and interpretation of data. Third Space was operationalized into two sub-constructs called Dialogical Interactions and Hybrid Discourses. The aims of this study were to investigate sociocultural aspects of learning chemistry with analogies in order to identify classroom activities where students generate Dialogical Interactions and Hybrid Discourses, and to refine the operationalization of Third Space. These aims were addressed through three research questions. The research questions were studied through an instrumental case study design. The study was conducted in my Year 11 chemistry class at City State High School for the duration of one Semester. Data were generated through a range of data collection methods and analysed through discourse analysis using the Dialogical Interactions and Hybrid Discourse sub-constructs as coding categories. Results indicated that student interactions differed between analogical activities and mathematical problem-solving activities. Specifically, students drew on discourses other than school chemical discourse to construct analogies and their growing participation in chemical discourse was tracked using the Third Space model as an interpretive lens. Results of this study led to modification of the theoretical model adopted at the beginning of the study to a new model called Merged Discourse. Merged Discourse represents the mutual relationship that formed during analogical activities between the Analog Discourse and the Target Discourse. This model can be used for interpreting and analysing classroom discourse centred on analogical activities from sociocultural perspectives. That is, it can be used to code classroom discourse to reveal students’ growing participation with chemical (or scientific) discourse consistent with sociocultural perspectives on learning.

Modeling the impact of potential vaccines on epidemics of sexually transmitted chlamydia trachomatis infection

Background. We investigated the likely impact of vaccines on the prevalence of and morbidity due to Chlamydia trachomatis (chlamydia) infections in heterosexual populations. Methods.An individual‐based mathematical model of chlamydia transmission was developed and linked to the infection course in chlamydia‐infected individuals. The model describes the impact of a vaccine through its effect on the chlamydial load required to infect susceptible individuals (the “critical load”), the load in infected individuals, and their subsequent infectiousness. The model was calibrated using behavioral, biological, and clinical data. Results.A fully protective chlamydia vaccine administered before sexual debut can theoretically eliminate chlamydia epidemics within 20 years. Partially effective vaccines can still greatly reduce the incidence of chlamydia infection. Vaccines should aim primarily to increase the critical load in susceptible individuals and secondarily to decrease the peak load and/or the duration of infection in vaccinated individuals who become infected. Vaccinating both sexes has a beneficial impact on chlamydia‐related morbidity, but targeting women is more effective than targeting men. Conclusions.Our findings can be used in laboratory settings to evaluate vaccine candidates in animal models, by regulatory bodies in the promotion of candidates for clinical trials, and by public health authorities in deciding on optimal intervention strategies.

A grounded theory study of nursing students’ experiences in the off-campus clinical setting

Poor workplace relations are an issue of concern in many workplaces and this phenomenon is not restricted to the nursing profession. The issue of workplace violence in nursing is well documented and there are an increasing number of studies which have investigated the notion of horizontal violence amongst graduate nurses. The impact that poor workplace relations has on the development of a professional identity by nursing students in the off-campus clinical setting is significant in light of the current global shortage of nurses. There is a dearth of knowledge in understanding how Australian undergraduate nursing students experience the off-campus clinical setting and subsequently develop a professional identity as a nurse. Therefore the aim of this study was to discover and describe the phenomena in order to develop a substantive theory that explains the experiences of the undergraduate nursing students in a regional setting. Constructivist grounded theory methods were utilised in the conduct of the study. A sample of 29 participants was recruited permitting the formulation of a substantive theory regarding the development of a professional identity in nursing students. This substantive theory contributes knowledge relevant to the undergraduate nursing students, nurse educators, nursing workforce planners, and the tertiary educational institutions offering nursing. This is achieved through discovering, describing and explaining the phenomenon of ‘anxiety’ which the nursing students experience as a result of the interrelationship and interactions of tradition bearing, staff and student performance. These interactions intersect to form expectations of where the student fits within the hierarchy of the facility and the nursing profession in general. An understanding of the issues associated with tradition bearing, staff performance, and student performance and the impact that the interaction of these conditions has upon the student’s developing professional identity as a nurse is necessary to allow for the implementation of corrective strategies.

Elderly people's use of and attitudes towards assistive devices

People in developed countries are living longer with the help of medical advances. Literature has shown that older people prefer to stay independent and live at home for as long as possible. Therefore, it is important to find out how to best accommodate and assist them in maintaining quality of life and independence as well as easing human resources. Researchers have claimed that assistive devices assist in older people’s independence, however, only a small number of studies regarding the efficiency of assistive devices have been undertaken of which several have stated that devices are not being used. The overall aim of this research was to identify whether the disuse and ineffectiveness of assistive devices are related to change in abilities or related to the design of the devices. The objective was to gather information from the elderly; to identify what assistive devices are being used or not used and to gain an understanding on their attitudes towards assistive devices. Research was conducted in two phases. The initial phase of the research was conducted with the distribution of questionnaires to people over the age of fifty that asked general questions and specific questions on type of devices being used. Phase One was followed on by Phase Two, where participants from Phase One who had come in contact with assistive devices were invited to participate in a semi-structured interview. Questions were put forth to the interviewee on their use of and attitudes towards assistive devices. Findings indicated that the reasons for the disuse in assistive devices were mostly design related; bulkiness, reliability, performance of the device, difficulty of use. The other main reason for disuse was socially related; elderly people preferred to undertake activities on their own and only use a device as a precaution or when absolutely necessary. They would prefer not having to rely on the devices. Living situation and difference in gender did not affect the preference for the use of assistive devices over personal assistance. The majority strongly supported the idea of remaining independent for as long as possible. In conclusion, this study proposes that through these findings, product designers will have a better understanding of the requirements of an elderly user. This will enable the designers to produce assistive devices that are more practical, personalised, reliable, easy to use and tie in with the older people’s environments. Additional research with different variables is recommended to further justify these findings.

Randomized controlled trial of cognitive-behavioural therapy for coexisting depression and alcohol problems : short-term outcome

AIMS: Alcohol use disorders and depression co-occur frequently and are associated with poorer outcomes than when either condition occurs alone. The present study (Depression and Alcohol Integrated and Single-focused Interventions; DAISI) aimed to compare the effectiveness of brief intervention, single-focused and integrated psychological interventions for treatment of coexisting depression and alcohol use problems. METHODS: Participants (n = 284) with current depressive symptoms and hazardous alcohol use were assessed and randomly allocated to one of four individually delivered interventions: (i) a brief intervention only (single 90-minute session) with an integrated focus on depression and alcohol, or followed by a further nine 1-hour sessions with (ii) an alcohol focus; (iii) a depression focus; or (iv) an integrated focus. Follow-up assessments occurred 18 weeks after baseline. RESULTS: Compared with the brief intervention, 10 sessions were associated with greater reductions in average drinks per week, average drinking days per week and maximum consumption on 1 day. No difference in duration of treatment was found for depression outcomes. Compared with single-focused interventions, integrated treatment was associated with a greater reduction in drinking days and level of depression. For men, the alcohol-focused rather than depression-focused intervention was associated with a greater reduction in average drinks per day and drinks per week and an increased level of general functioning. Women showed greater improvements on each of these variables when they received depression-focused rather than alcohol-focused treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Integrated treatment may be superior to single-focused treatment for coexisting depression and alcohol problems, at least in the short term. Gender differences between single-focused depression and alcohol treatments warrant further study.

Cosmoscapes and the promotion of uncosmopolitan values

Globality generates increasingly diffuse networks of human and non-human innovators, carriers and icons of exotic, polyethnic cosmopolitan difference; and this diffusion is increasingly hard to ignore or police (Latour 1993). In fact, such global networks of material-symbolic exchange can frequently have the unintended consequence of promoting status systems and cultural relationships founded on uncosmopolitan values such as cultural appropriation and status-based social exclusion. Moreover, this materialsymbolic engagement with cosmopolitan difference could also be rather mundane, engaged in routinely without any great reflexive consciousness or capacity to destabilise current relations of cultural power, or interpreted unproblematically as just one component of a person’s social environment. Indeed, Beck’s (2006) argument is that cosmopolitanism, in an age of global risk, is being forced upon us unwillingly, so there should be no surprise if it is a bitter pill for some to swallow. Within these emergent cosmopolitan networks, which we call ‘cosmoscapes’, there is no certainty about the development of ethical or behavioural stances consistent with claims foundational to the current literature on cosmopolitanism. Reviewing historical and contemporary studies of globality and its dynamic generative capacity, this paper considers such literatures in the context of studies of cultural consumption and social status. When one positions these diverse bodies of literature against one another, it becomes clear that the possibility of widespread cosmopolitan cultural formations is largely unpromising.

Thermal requirements, field mortality and population phenology modelling of Paropsis atomaria Olivier, an emergent pest in subtropical hardwood plantations

Paropsis atomaria is a recently emerged pest of eucalypt plantations in subtropical Australia. Its broad host range of at least 20 eucalypt species and wide geographical distribution provides it the potential to become a serious forestry pest both within Australia and, if accidentally introduced, overseas. Although populations of P. atomaria are genetically similar throughout its range, population dynamics differ between regions. Here, we determine temperature-dependent developmental requirements using beetles sourced from temperate and subtropical zones by calculating lower temperature thresholds, temperature-induced mortality, and day-degree requirements. We combine these data with field mortality estimates of immature life stages to produce a cohort-based model, ParopSys, using DYMEX™ that accurately predicts the timing, duration, and relative abundance of life stages in the field and number of generations in a spring–autumn (September–May) field season. Voltinism was identified as a seasonally plastic trait dependent upon environmental conditions, with two generations observed and predicted in the Australian Capital Territory, and up to four in Queensland. Lower temperature thresholds for development ranged between 4 and 9 °C, and overall development rates did not differ according to beetle origin. Total immature development time (egg–adult) was approximately 769.2 ± S.E. 127.8 DD above a lower temperature threshold of 6.4 ± S.E. 2.6 °C. ParopSys provides a basic tool enabling forest managers to use the number of generations and seasonal fluctuations in abundance of damaging life stages to estimate the pest risk of P. atomaria prior to plantation establishment, and predict the occurrence and duration of damaging life stages in the field. Additionally, by using local climatic data the pest potential of P. atomaria can be estimated to predict the risk of it establishing if accidentally introduced overseas. Improvements to ParopSys’ capability and complexity can be made as more biological data become available.