The Bayesian conditional independence model for measurement error: applications in ecology

The measurement error model is a well established statistical method for regression problems in medical sciences, although rarely used in ecological studies. While the situations in which it is appropriate may be less common in ecology, there are instances in which there may be benefits in its use for prediction and estimation of parameters of interest. We have chosen to explore this topic using a conditional independence model in a Bayesian framework using a Gibbs sampler, as this gives a great deal of flexibility, allowing us to analyse a number of different models without losing generality. Using simulations and two examples, we show how the conditional independence model can be used in ecology, and when it is appropriate.

Measuring driver responses at railway level crossings

Railway level crossings are amongst the most complex of road safety control systems, due to the conflicts between road vehicles and rail infrastructure, trains and train operations. Driver behaviour at railway crossings is the major collision factor. The main objective of the present paper was to evaluate the existing conventional warning devices in relation to driver behaviour. The common conventional warning devices in Australia are a stop sign (passive), flashing lights and a half boom-barrier with flashing lights (active). The data were collected using two approaches, namely: field video recordings at selected sites and a driving simulator in a laboratory. This paper describes and compares the driver response results from both the field survey and the driving simulator. The conclusion drawn is that different types of warning systems resulted in varying driver responses at crossings. The results showed that on average driver responses to passive crossings were poor when compared to active ones. The field results were consistent with the simulator results for the existing conventional warning devices and hence they may be used to calibrate the simulator for further evaluation of alternative warning systems.

Error analysis and attitude observability of a monocular GPS/visual odometry integrated navigation filter

In this paper, we present a method for the recovery of position and absolute attitude (including pitch, roll and yaw) using a novel fusion of monocular Visual Odometry and GPS measurements in a similar manner to a classic loosely-coupled GPS/INS error state navigation filter. The proposed filter does not require additional restrictions or assumptions such as platform-specific dynamics, map-matching, feature-tracking, visual loop-closing, gravity vector or additional sensors such as an IMU or magnetic compass. An observability analysis of the proposed filter is performed, showing that the scale factor, position and attitude errors are fully observable under acceleration that is non-parallel to velocity vector in the navigation frame. The observability properties of the proposed filter are demonstrated using numerical simulations. We conclude the article with an implementation of the proposed filter using real flight data collected from a Cessna 172 equipped with a downwards-looking camera and GPS, showing the feasibility of the algorithm in real-world conditions.

Private supervisors of learner drivers and Queensland's graduated driver licensing system : how important are they?

Background: A key element of graduated driver licensing systems is the level of support provided by parents. In mid-2007 changes were made to Queensland’s graduated driver licensing system, including amendments to the learner licence with one of the more significant changes requiring learners to record 100 hours of supervised driving practice in a logbook. Prior to mid-2007, there was no minimum supervision requirement. Aims: The aim of this study was to document the experiences of the supervisors of Queensland learner drivers after the changes made to the graduated driver licensing system in mid-2007. Methods: The sample of 552 supervisors of learner drivers was recruited using a combination of convenience and snowball sampling techniques. The internet survey was open for completion between July 2009 and May 2010 and took approximately 15 to 20 minutes for participants to complete. Results: For 59.7 per cent of the participants, this was the first time that they had supervised a learner driver. For 63.2 per cent, they classified themselves as the main supervisor for the learner driver. Participants provided an average of 79.62 hours of supervision (sd = 92.38), while other private supervisors provided 34.89 hours of supervision (sd = 41.74) to the same learner and professional driving instructors 18.55 hours of supervision (sd = 27.54). The vast majority of supervisors recorded all or most of the practice that they provided their learner driver in their log book with most supervisors indicating that they believed that the hours recorded in the learner’s logbook were either accurate or very accurate. While many supervisors stated that they did not receive any advice regarding the supervision of learner drivers, some had received advice from others such as friends or through discussions with a professional driving instructor. Discussion and conclusions: While graduated driver licensing systems implicitly encourage the involvement of parents and other private supervisors, these people tend not to be systematically involved. As demonstrated in this study, private supervisors provide a significant amount of supervised practice and seek to record this practice accurately and honestly in the learner’s logbook. However, even though a significant number of participants reported that this was the first time that they had supervised a learner driver, they accessed little support or guidance for their role. This suggests a need to more overtly encourage and support the role of private supervisors for learner drivers.

Chinese driver perceptions about speeding and traffic law enforcement

The World Health Organisation has highlighted the urgent need to address the escalating global public health crisis associated with road trauma. Low-income and middle-income countries bear the brunt of this, and rapid increases in private vehicle ownership in these nations present new challenges to authorities, citizens, and researchers alike. The role of human factors in the road safety equation is high. In China, human factors have been implicated in more than 90% of road crashes, with speeding identified as the primary cause (Wang, 2003). However, research investigating the factors that influence driving speeds in China is lacking (WHO, 2004). To help address this gap, we present qualitative findings from group interviews conducted with 35 Beijing car drivers in 2008. Some themes arising from data analysis showed strong similarities with findings from highly-motorised nations (e.g., UK, USA, and Australia) and include issues such as driver definitions of ‘speeding’ that appear to be aligned with legislative enforcement tolerances, factors relating to ease/difficulty of speed limit compliance, and the modifying influence of speed cameras. However, unique differences were evident, some of which, to our knowledge, are previously unreported in research literature. Themes included issues relating to an expressed lack of understanding about why speed limits are necessary and a perceived lack of transparency in traffic law enforcement and use of associated revenue. The perception of an unfair system seemed related to issues such as differential treatment of certain drivers and the large amount of individual discretion available to traffic police when administering sanctions. Additionally, a wide range of strategies to overtly avoid detection for speeding and/or the associated sanctions were reported. These strategies included the use of in-vehicle speed camera detectors, covering or removing vehicle licence number plates, and using personal networks of influential people to reduce or cancel a sanction. These findings have implications for traffic law, law enforcement, driver training, and public education in China. While not representative of all Beijing drivers, we believe that these research findings offer unique insights into driver behaviour in China.

The effect of simulated astigmatic refractive error on reading performance

Background: Few studies have specifically investigated the functional effects of uncorrected astigmatism on measures of reading fluency. This information is important to provide evidence for the development of clinical guidelines for the correction of astigmatism. Methods: Participants included 30 visually normal, young adults (mean age 21.7 ± 3.4 years). Distance and near visual acuity and reading fluency were assessed with optimal spectacle correction (baseline) and for two levels of astigmatism, 1.00DC and 2.00DC, at two axes (90° and 180°) to induce both against-the-rule (ATR) and with-the-rule (WTR) astigmatism. Reading and eye movement fluency were assessed using standardized clinical measures including the test of Discrete Reading Rate (DRR), the Developmental Eye Movement (DEM) test and by recording eye movement patterns with the Visagraph (III) during reading for comprehension. Results: Both distance and near acuity were significantly decreased compared to baseline for all of the astigmatic lens conditions (p < 0.001). Reading speed with the DRR for N16 print size was significantly reduced for the 2.00DC ATR condition (a reduction of 10%), while for smaller text sizes reading speed was reduced by up to 24% for the 1.00DC ATR and 2.00DC condition in both axis directions (p<0.05). For the DEM, sub-test completion speeds were significantly impaired, with the 2.00DC condition affecting both vertical and horizontal times and the 1.00DC ATR condition affecting only horizontal times (p<0.05). Visagraph reading eye movements were not significantly affected by the induced astigmatism. Conclusions: Induced astigmatism impaired performance on selected tests of reading fluency, with ATR astigmatism having significantly greater effects on performance than did WTR, even for relatively small amounts of astigmatic blur of 1.00DC. These findings have implications for the minimal prescribing criteria for astigmatic refractive errors.

Occupational driver safety : conceptualising a leadership-based intervention to improve safe driving performance

Occupational driving crashes are the most common cause of death and injury in the workplace. The physical and psychological outcomes following injury are also very costly to organizations. Thus, safe driving poses a managerial challenge. Some research has attempted to address this issue through modifying discrete and often simple target behaviors (e.g., driver training programs). However, current intervention approaches in the occupational driving field generally do not consider the role of organizational factors in workplace safety. This study adopts the A-B-C framework to identify the contingencies associated with an effective exchange of safety information within the occupational driving context. Utilizing a sample of occupational drivers and their supervisors, this multi-level study examines the contingencies associated with the exchange of safety information within the supervisor-driver relationship. Safety values are identified as an antecedent of the safety information exchange, and the quality of the leader-member exchange relationship and safe driving performance is identified as the behavioral consequences. We also examine the function of role overload as a factor influencing the relationship between safety values and the safety information exchange. Hierarchical Linear Modelling found that role overload moderated the relationship between supervisors’ perceptions of the value given to safety and the safety information exchange. A significant relationship was also found between the safety information exchange and the subsequent quality of the leader-member exchange relationship. Finally, the quality of the leader-member exchange relationship was found to be significantly associated with safe driving performance. Theoretical and practical implications of these results are discussed.

In search of the antecendents for risky driving at railway level crossings

This paper discusses human factors issues of low cost railway level crossings in Australia. Several issues are discussed in this paper including safety at passive level railway crossings, human factors considerations associated with unavailability of a warning device, and a conceptual model for how safety could be compromised at railway level crossings following prolonged or frequent unavailability. The research plans to quantify safety risk to motorists at level crossings using a Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) method, supported by data collected using an advanced driving simulator. This method aims to identify human error within tasks and task units identified as part of the task analysis process. It is anticipated that by modelling driver behaviour the current study will be able to quantify meaningful task variability including temporal parameters, between participants and within participants. The process of complex tasks such as driving through a level crossing is fundamentally context-bound. Therefore this study also aims to quantify those performance-shaping factors that contribute to vehicle train collisions by highlighting changes in the task units and driver physiology. Finally we will also consider a number of variables germane to ensuring external validity of our results. Without this inclusion, such an analysis could seriously underestimate the probabilistic risk assessment.

A human factors investigation into the unavailability of active warnings at railway level crossings

This paper discusses human factors issues of low cost railway level crossings in Australia. Several issues are discussed in this paper including safety at passive level railway crossings, human factors considerations associated with unavailability of a warning device, and a conceptual model for how safety could be compromised at railway level crossings following prolonged or frequent unavailability. The research plans to quantify safety risk to motorists at level crossings using a Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) method, supported by data collected using an advanced driving simulator. This method aims to identify human error within tasks and task units identified as part of the task analysis process. It is anticipated that by modelling driver behaviour the current study will be able to quantify meaningful task variability including temporal parameters, between participants and within participants. The process of complex tasks such as driving through a level crossing is fundamentally context-bound. Therefore this study also aims to quantify those performance-shaping factors that contribute to vehicle train collisions by highlighting changes in the task units and driver physiology. Finally we will also consider a number of variables germane to ensuring external validity of our results. Without this inclusion, such an analysis could seriously underestimate risk.

Thresholds for error probability measures of business process models

The quality of conceptual business process models is highly relevant for the design of corresponding information systems. In particular, a precise measurement of model characteristics can be beneficial from a business perspective, helping to save costs thanks to early error detection. This is just as true from a software engineering point of view. In this latter case, models facilitate stakeholder communication and software system design. Research has investigated several proposals as regards measures for business process models, from a rather correlational perspective. This is helpful for understanding, for example size and complexity as general driving forces of error probability. Yet, design decisions usually have to build on thresholds, which can reliably indicate that a certain counter-action has to be taken. This cannot be achieved only by providing measures; it requires a systematic identification of effective and meaningful thresholds. In this paper, we derive thresholds for a set of structural measures for predicting errors in conceptual process models. To this end, we use a collection of 2,000 business process models from practice as a means of determining thresholds, applying an adaptation of the ROC curves method. Furthermore, an extensive validation of the derived thresholds was conducted by using 429 EPC models from an Australian financial institution. Finally, significant thresholds were adapted to refine existing modeling guidelines in a quantitative way.

Determinants of driver vs. second row occupant posture modelling

Digital human modeling (DHM), as a convenient and cost-effective tool, is increasingly incorporated into product and workplace design. In product design, it is predominantly used for the development of driver-vehicle systems. Most digital human modeling software tools, such as JACK, RAMSIS and DELMIA HUMANBUILDER provide functions to predict posture and positions for drivers with selected anthropometry according to SAE (Society of Automotive Engineers) Recommended Practices and other ergonomics guidelines. However, few studies have presented 2nd row passenger postural information, and digital human modeling of these passenger postures cannot be performed directly using the existing driver posture prediction functions. In this paper, the significant studies related to occupant posture and modeling were reviewed and a framework of determinants of driver vs. 2nd row occupant posture modeling was extracted. The determinants which are regarded as input factors for posture modeling include target population anthropometry, vehicle package geometry and seat design variables as well as task definitions. The differences between determinants of driver and 2nd row occupant posture models are significant, as driver posture modeling is primarily based on the position of the foot on the accelerator pedal (accelerator actuation point AAP, accelerator heel point AHP) and the hands on the steering wheel (steering wheel centre point A-Point). The objectives of this paper are aimed to investigate those differences between driver and passenger posture, and to supplement the existing parametric model for occupant posture prediction. With the guide of the framework, the associated input parameters of occupant digital human models of both driver and second row occupant will be identified. Beyond the existing occupant posture models, for example a driver posture model could be modified to predict second row occupant posture, by adjusting the associated input parameters introduced in this paper. This study combines results from a literature review and the theoretical modeling stage of a second row passenger posture prediction model project.

Error correction in second language writing : teachers’ beliefs, practices, and students’ preferences

Error correction is perhaps the most widely used method for responding to student writing. While various studies have investigated the effectiveness of providing error correction, there has been relatively little research incorporating teachers' beliefs, practices, and students' preferences in written error correction. The current study adopted features of an ethnographic research design in order to explore the beliefs and practices of ESL teachers, and investigate the preferences of L2 students regarding written error correction in the context of a language institute situated in the Brisbane metropolitan district. In this study, two ESL teachers and two groups of adult intermediate L2 students were interviewed and observed. The beliefs and practices of the teachers were elicited through interviews and classroom observations. The preferences of L2 students were elicited through focus group interviews. Responses of the participants were encoded and analysed. Results of the teacher interviews showed that teachers believe that providing written error correction has advantages and disadvantages. Teachers believe that providing written error correction helps students improve their proof-reading skills in order to revise their writing more efficiently. However, results also indicate that providing written error correction is very time consuming. Furthermore, teachers prefer to provide explicit written feedback strategies during the early stages of the language course, and move to a more implicit strategy of providing written error correction in order to facilitate language learning. On the other hand, results of the focus group interviews suggest that students regard their teachers' practice of written error correction as important in helping them locate their errors and revise their writing. However, students also feel that the process of providing written error correction is time consuming. Nevertheless, students want and expect their teachers to provide written feedback because they believe that the benefits they gain from receiving feedback on their writing outweigh the apparent disadvantages of their teachers' written error correction strategies.